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Monday Morning Briefing

Monday Morning Briefing

by The MoleDecember 24, 2012

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

As you probably are aware the NYSE is going to close early today at 1:00pm EST. Thus I don’t expect a whole lot of movement in the hours ahead. But you can’t be sure given the political brinksmanship in Washington which could give rise to a healthy dose of volatility at a moment’s notice. So if you must trade today then please do yourself a favor and reduce your exposure to a bare minimum. You’ll thank me later.

The E-Mini is back at the 25-hour SMA and this usually is a good place to get positioned on a short term basis. Short on SMA failure and long on a breach – you all know the drill by now. However, in the context of those monster candles still in sight from last Friday (flash crash – cough cough) I am rather hesitant and probably will stick with some setups over on currencies and commodities.

The recent EUR ramp and run game still seems to be the going recipe. Risk is on during trading hours over here in Europe which is then followed by a sell off during NYSE hours. At this point the EUR/USD is back at its 100-hour SMA and I am long with a stop below. If they play the same script today then I’ll grab a short position as soon as she drops below the 100-hour again.

[amprotect=nonmember] More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Cable however seems to be in a foul mood this morning as it just broke below its 25-hour and a NLSL. I am currently short with a stop above the SMA. Obviously things are a bit fickle in the coming days and I would be long as soon as it pops back above the SMA.

NZD/USD on the other hand seems to be pretty consistently weak – right now I am short with a stop above the 25-hour. And if she actually manages to paint a floor and pops above 0.823 I’m long. Ya se verá.

The old greenback is testing the 100-hour once more and I’m long with a stop below the SMA.

Crude at the 25-hour and seems to be breaching a new NLSL which is good for the next four hours. I’m short with a stop above the SMA.

Gold – below the 100-hour – currently I’m short with a stop above. But I know that this is a pretty risky trade right now which is why I am only holding a handful of contracts. If we get any type of news this thing could take off in any direction – good luck getting a decent fill if you find yourself on the wrong side of the trade. Treat carefully.

Soybeans – looking positive right now and it seems that it wants to pop above that hourly NLBL – I’m currently short with a stop above but will flip it if it pops above. May take a few attempts but fortunately volatility here is pretty contained.


Public Service Announcement: This will be my last post for today and since I expect most of you to take a few days off I’m planning on reducing the frequency of posts over the coming days. Expect me to chime in intermittently and if we see any significant moves then I’ll be sure to put up some charts, no worries. Starting January 2nd I will resume my usual daily chart-a-thon – assuming of course that I’ll survive the truckload of fireworks that captainboom sold me (what does ICBM stand for again?) And yes, all indicators and systems will continue to run as usual throughout the week.

Wishing all you Christian steel rats a very merry Christmas! And the rest of you a happy holidays! Light a candle for the Mole but please keep the fire extinguisher handy. That means you captainboom! 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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