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Much Ado About Nothing
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Much Ado About Nothing

by The MoleJune 9, 2009

As a market analyst – financial blog pimp daddy – or whatever I may aspire to be – it is important to know when to be very explicit and elaborate in my forecasts – and it is equally crucial to know when nothing should be said beyond what has already been offered. Tonight is just such an occasion:

Today’s gyrations have bestowed us with neither a disqualification nor a confirmation of either of the two present scenarios (i.e. green and blue). So we must wait until the market shows us its hand – in particular in light of the blatant program trading action that once again pushed the market towards higher altitudes in the final minutes of the day. Was it a ruse to shake out some of the weaker hands or a precursor of a follow through action tomorrow?

With the data currently available to us it’s impossible to know for sure, and as traders we have to reconcile ourselves with the fact that sometimes we simply do not know. Inexperienced traders will often fall in the psychological trap of settling for an emotionally convenient answer, one that in most cases is simply based on talking their own book. There is nothing wrong with not knowing – as strangely as this may sound – as those are the times when we simply do nothing.

Again, we can learn from Sun Tzu: “Strike when victory is assured”. Reflect upon that before tomorrow’s session.

As a side note – I find it interesting that the long spike today touched my diagonal resistance line and immediately bounced back (not shown on chart for some reason – not sure why). I am sure we’ll know soon enough – I still have not abandoned the short side also for other reasons – the stark contrast between the slightly negative breadth ratio (NDX and SPX) and the huge spike in the Tick (+1380) is only one among many.

But if the past few months have taught me anything then it’s that I would be foolish to put my eggs into the bearish bandwagon too early. Let’s wait and see – the range is fairly condensed at this point and a final resolution should present itself by Wednesday at the latest (let’s hope).

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://www.OptionsVista.com 1option

    Hey guys SnapTrader has a great series going on about trader psychology:
    http://www.optionsvista.com/snaptrader/170-trad

  • http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com/ Forkoholic

    For all P2-ers out there. How you project Wave 3?
    1576-666=910 so as 3 usually longer 1 you expect a rally back to 1570ish?
    if w3=1.618W1 we practically go to 0? or assumption is W3 will be shorter W1? EDT?

  • dullmind

    Boy you are up late Mole, but thanks for the analysis. Don't get up early on account of us, we
    like a happy MoleCool

  • dullmind

    Hello, I wrote this up just as Mole was posting his new update,

    US dollar daily, showing rising trend from July 2008 to Dec 2008, followed by a Head & Shoulders top
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=4&g

    New revised chart shows the neckline, I have drawn in a guess of where do USD will go, possible points
    on a fall where it might pause.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=5&g

    Now the CNBC question, what does this mean for equities? 🙂

  • dullmind

    This is is as good a short read as any I why I have become a PermaBear.

    The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 1
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/141605-the-comi

    The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 2
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/141851-the-comi

    Long FAZ from last week, (Thanks SteelChicken) and long SDS yesterday because of the Zero.

  • v8muscle

    I think we've seen the lows tonight already. I dont think we're going to push much lower then 935. Maybe down to 932 or so but tomorrow we're gonna bust way higher.

  • malusDiaz

    Your musings are of excellent caliber mole.

    Keep up the good work.

    If you do not know, rest assured you are correct.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I am with you – 960 coming tomorrow. By the time US markets open we will be nicely in green and should gap up above Monday's highs.. TLT should continue to take it in the rear.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Serge – the issue here is also of dollar devaluation – not sure how EW takes that into account. Honestly, we should normalize SPX against dollar index and then do sub-wave measurements.

  • v8muscle

    i'm just sad we couldnt have dropped to 935 during trading hours so i could load up on calls 🙁

  • mrclam

    If you do that, then you need to figure out where the dollar is going to estimate where the S&P is going as well. Twice the number of unknowns no?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    hmm.. didn't you load up at 925-930?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    hmm.. didn't you load up at 925-930?

  • onorio

    Hey mole,

    Tks for posting that nyt article..very good reading.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/4ejZlWVlMW

    Strictly a day trade (or night trade if you will)

    http://screencast.com/t/q5oe6WeOke

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    good point … glad you pointed that out … no point becoming involved in too much analysis… I have that pitfall 🙂

    ________________________________

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    IMO, Tuesday will be a gap up followed by trending up day. We will most likely challenge SPX 960. Good luck to ya all.

    Disclaimer: I am net long going into close on Monday and what I state above could be confirmation bias speaking.

  • salvadorveiga

    at a certain time you cannot use absolute numbers… neither in normal TA neither in EWT.

    W1 made the index fall 58%… I'd say P3 has to atleast outnumber that…. so a minimum condition would be a 60% drop from wherever P2 tops…

  • http://www.cafes.net poisonfrog

    George Soros says that after he makes a trade, he looks to see why he was wrong, not why he was right.

    (and then he just calls the ruling elite and confirms that he is on the right side of the trade)

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/OZ2x9nsBt

    What can I say….this is just a day trade.
    One thought I had though….everyone and their grandma is ready to short the heck out of this market around 960…..
    How many bears are sitting with their remaining capital, waiting to pull the trigger, but if they never get the chance, and then wait to short on a bounce back (that never happens…like the run up from March), well then the market as the master of deception will have played it's trump cards.

  • springheel_jack

    Good avatar.

    Totally agree that the outlook is grim. Famine is following feast.

    Difficult to see much upside for equities in this environment. .

  • springheel_jack

    I was readiing something interesting last night arguing that far from the USD rising while treasuries fell being a divergence, it is the rise in yields that is supporting USD by effectively raising interest rates and thereby making it more attractive to hold USD. .

    Interesting & possibly right.

  • springheel_jack

    Great post Mole.

    I think we are in the process of making an important intermediate top which is likely to be followed by a sharp pullback.

    I agree with MLMT that we may see a strong start and challenge 960 today. I hope so as that would be a great entry point to load up on shorts for a ride back down to 910 and perhaps beyond.

  • katzo7

    Mole said, “Today’s gyrations have bestowed us with neither a disqualification nor a confirmation of either of the two present scenarios”
    Absolutely mole.
    CLEAN WAVES vs. the “other,” my 5 am EST post.
    Based on TA previous to the EW5 label, I thought we might have initiated 5 EWs to the downside (mirroring the up move) but the dreaded ABCs appeared. Today, bears will be lucky if we go sideways all day; a good down would be tiramatsu.
    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/
    After yesterday, the question mark becomes slightly larger in my mine. But we have seen this ramping over and over. Still think top is in based on double dojis, osc. divergence, an EW5, excessive optimism, extreme divergence but will keep my eyes open. BBs are tightening again, she will break one way or other. Note how long ramp job held. Have things changed?

  • springheel_jack

    Not sure who said the following but a lot of truth in it: 'The market always does what it is supposed to do, BUT NEVER WHEN. '

    LOL

  • Squidman

    Don't you ever sleep? I know you're on Hawaii time, but, you played all day yesterday too. I've been watching your overnight stuff for a while. The scalping indicators I use seem much more reliable in these hours so I might start playing along. Revenge of the insomniacs!

  • TomOfTheNorth

    hey dullmind,

    Thanks for the post. John Maudlin's note this morning is a reprint of an FT piece by Niall Ferguson last week making the case for for inflation. The most compelling aspect of Ferguson's view to me is that M2 is growing 9%. To review:

    M1: currency in circulation + checkable deposits (checking deposits, officially called demand deposits, and other deposits that work like checking deposits) + traveler's checks.
    M2: M1 + savings deposits, time deposits less than $100,000 and money market deposit accounts for individuals. M2 represents money and “close substitutes” for money.

    Additionally, Ferguson's recent Macro nemesis Paul Krugman marched boldy into the 'Recovery' camp yesterday suggesting the recession could be over by August. An especially visible 180 by Krugman.

    I however am aligned with your thinking on this. I continue to surmise that we are experiencing a bear market rally in the midst of an unfolding deflationary depression that will ultimately prove as or more painful than the oft-cited 'Great' one of the '30s. Economic data continues to be issued in support of this view so no point in belaboring that aspect of the debate.

    But to speak to Ferguson's analysis that M2 growth will drive inflation, my simple refutation is, 'only if someone spends it.' The US consumer is paying down massive amounts of installment debt. This adversely affects consumers' discretionary spending. The great real estate unwind continues, further eroding personal & corporate wealth. The savings rate has increased dramatically, further diminishing discretionary spending. Unemployment is still rising. Baby boomers are reentering the job market and increasing retirment savings out of fear. US policy has mostly just monetized preexisting debt., with the so-called stimulus mostly transfer payments. No real spending is yet occurring there, although some will be spent for 'infrastructure' in 2010.

    For me to move to an inflationary view, US policy will have to double-down on some actual stimulus and, even then, will need to be considered in the context of the deflationary forces that, by then, have more visibly asserted themselves.

  • Squidman

    Yeah, except it exacerbates the problem. The one segment of RE that was showing life was the lower priced homes (150- 250) and this has effectively snuffed the life out of any housing recovery. We are increasing inventory/supply during the prime of the season while the ability for these people to qualify evaporates. Great plan!

  • katzo7

    You too squiddy, shouldn't you be sleeping so you have strength and energy to weed those 55 tomatoes plants?

  • springheel_jack

    One thing to consider here is that the bulls do not have unstoppable momentum on their side.

    We moved into a period of sideways trading a month ago after new peaks were made on May 8. The SPX peaked intraday that day at 930 and didn't make a new high until June. Since then the highest it has risen intraday is only 21 points higher at 951 and on the futures as I write are only at 837. If you had shorted with Mole at 930 and kept the position since, you would only be down seven points, ignoring theta of course.

    Mole is telling us that the only time to short is at the peak and he's right, because that is what you do in sideways trading.

    This rally is running out of steam. Divergences are building up. One that hasn't been mentioned is the divergence on the $NYAD, with the NYSE advance-decline ratio declining since mid-May as the NYSE has reached new highs.

    This rally is running on fumes & equities are overvalued on any basis other than the fading memory of what people thought they were worth in the bubble. There may not be much technical resistance on the charts between 960 and 1120 but common sense suggests that with the current economic outlook and earnings picture, we shouldn't reach 1120 anytime soon, and probably won't.

    As for those looking at past selling prices and looking for recovery opportunities on the basis that what goes down must come up, let me suggest that the real estate markets in Babylon and Troy, once the richest in the world but more recently in a 3000 year bear market, might be worth a look.

  • springheel_jack

    Bernanke and others have been clear from the start that the very core of this economic crisis is the collapse in the housing market, as the primary cause of both losses at the banks that are eroding their capital and retarding their ability to lend, and impoverishing consumers, who are cutting back on spending, without which any recovery will be slow and hard.

    The key to recovery in the housing markets, in their view, is low mortgage rates and Fed policy, purchases of long dated treasuries etc have been targeting mortgage rates to keep them down.

    That policy is increasingly in ruins. The situation is likely to get worse, and there is unlikely to be a housing recovery anytime soon.

    Still, a wrecked economy isn't incompatible with a strong USD. Inflation would probably be restrained at least. Look at Japan. Grimmer economic prospects might make the USD more attractive.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    It's 12:47 AM and about ready to hang it up, but when there is normally 20 bid and ask, and now there is 900 bid and ask….wow.
    Positioned short but ready to reverse the trade and put on a stupid bull suit for a while.

    PS i do actually sleep

  • onorio

    katzo,

    FYI im counting yesterday action as a 12(i)(ii) instead of your 1234, dont know what you think about it, just sharing my point 🙂

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Seems to me that (relative) dollar strength is more likely attributable to weakness in other currencies.

    And climbing yields could be merely reflective of massive anticipated supply.

    This decidedly unusual confuence of circumstances may seem inexplicable as it unfolds but will make perfect sense in hindsight.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Great post. Heavy stuff.

    And can I coin a new pattern that I call “The Night Hawk”

    I have no freakin idea how this one resolves…..

    http://screencast.com/t/9eheESGZNtV

  • onorio

    I was thinking the rallye was out of steam at 875 and i keep going up :/

    I also think a top should be near, but at this point a think we must go higher before we top, the 920/930 has become a solid support since last week and i would expect a new high near the 960/980 area.
    After that lets see if we have some negative divergences that support a solid move down, i also think a VIX breakout must happen before some real downside.

  • katzo7

    Based on my chart, are you putting the 5 where my B is, calling it a failed 5, and the (i) goes to the C position, the (ii) goes to the 3?
    Hey, that makes sense looking at yesterday's spike.

  • jacksoo

    are they further short orders you have showing on the chart steveo

  • OllyVaradi

    Not sure where we are headed for the intermediate term, don't care, and I've gone off the words divergence, overbought and oversold for they have had little relevance of late. However, we are a little over due for a trend day down on an average length of time between occurences. We also have had two consecutive daily dojis and the 5 day average range is typical June paint-drying excitement. More interestingly, I track sequences like 1 down day in 7 and 2 down days in 9. That's usually the most the market can go to before having to balance the books with a couple of down days. We are currently on 1 down day in 8 and 2 in 9. If today finishes up then that will be 1 in 9 and 2 in 12 – this is getting really stretched. Even the inverse (1 up in x days) only went to 1 up in 10 days going into the October 08 lows.

    On top of all this we've had 3 consecutive up days and another little system I track is selling an 11th day closing high, then cover two days later.

    All this means is I'm expecting a red close today or tomorrow. I can't tell the strength of the move but even a close lower of 1pt will reset most of these indicators.

    I'll be shorting if we get upside of 50-60pts for a day trade. I anticipate one of two outcomes, a low range day probably ending marginally red, or a red day with a close -1.5%. If we do go up, I think it would be limited but this market comes with no guarantees these days. At least in the olden days (pre-2008) you could be fleeced by the banksters and still make money.

    Disclosure: Had my ass handed to me several times already. Taking mother's meds to cope with this market and it has been said recently I'm looking more like Jack Nicholson in The Shining by the day. All data relates to the Dow.

  • katzo7

    “more recently in a 3000 year bear market”

    LOL.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    “….let me suggest that the real estate markets in Babylon and Troy…..more recently in a 3000 year bear market”

    LOL

    Something a little more contemporary, Nouriel Roubini note from yesterday:

    http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/25701

  • springheel_jack

    I think we could make 960 today, which I would be very happy with as it would be a great entry point to short from.

    If you look at it the rally's strong upward momentum did stop at 875. since then it has fought for almost every point with just a couple of short belches upwards to get us to where we are. today.

    The Vix is diverging already as it has been failing to confirm new equity highs with new lows. I think a Vix breakout will only happen when real downside arrives.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    ” Taking mother's meds to cope with this market and it has been said recently I'm looking more like Jack Nicholson in The Shining by the day.”

    Jack Nicholson? More like Ethel Merman as mother's hormone supplements kick-in.

    LOL

    +1 for market commentary too

  • springheel_jack

    I think we should call that the irresolute triangle.

    It resolves with a strong move one way or the other.

  • springheel_jack

    You're right, monetary policy everywhere is pitting currencies against each other in a race to the bottom.

    That's why I like gold & silver. Supply can't be increased quickly and they are the only currencies which aren't a claim on a borrower.

    In terms of yields governments want to borrow vastly more of a capital base that is greatly reduced. Supply & demand suggests that even without inflation we will see very high real interest rates. With inflation yields are headed to the moon over the next few years.

  • onorio

    No, your ABC is right, the following action that you label as 1234 i label 12(i)(ii), that mean we go higher today in a (iii) of.

    In a larget frame i still don`t know to label this as a major AB with C in progress or a 12 with 3 in progress, all this after the break up of 29may.

  • katzo7

    Leave it to Professor De Norte to spend all night in the library and come up with an A+ Phd paper.

  • springheel_jack

    Great article, thanks. I like Roubini, he's talks a lot of sense.

  • springheel_jack

    Looks like Detroit might be entering one of those. I read that a house there recently sold at auction for $1. The market has weakened since with the Chrysler & GM bankruptcies. The 50 cent house can only be a matter of time.

    LOL

  • molecool

    900 bid/ask on what at 7:00am EDT?

  • onorio

    My first target is in fact the 960, at that point i will close half of the longs, after that i would keep in watch at the 980 area.

    The point is that i dont know if i would go short at 980, i prefer to play safe and watch the tape before going short at that point. I prefer loose 10 or 20 points of downside that go short at 960/80 and watch the tape go to above 1000…it`s not easy to be a bear these days.

  • Osso

    correct..!!! its a % story. Guess if we get to 1000 we will fall to 400..minimum…..315 in the cards.

  • springheel_jack

    I'm expecting a red finish from a likely strong start.

    The daily 5,3,3 stochs on the SPX dipped under the 80 level and that would normally lead to at least one more down day. The SPX 60 min stochs suggest that we may have a strong start and the futures currently seem to confirm that.

    The spike upwards yesterday was on very low volume, at a time when the zero had flatlined, and seemingly only on the basis of a Stiglitz speech suggesting that the economy might recover this year.

    Perhaps he'll be reviving the Harvard Economic Society.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    If deflation persists or increases then I expect all tangible assets will decline in price and there will be a move to safety (Treasuries). FT reports Austria likely being next in a line of sovereign downgrades following Ireland yesterday. The UK & most of eastern Europe are on the ropes facing funding issues. And western Europe is on the hook having provided the financing to eastern Europe.

    I was a reflation guy a few months ago expecting 'Big Things', but the eventual US policy response struck me as pitiful. Elsewhere, Angela Merkel is screaming 'hyperinflation' yet Germany is looking at > -6% GDP.

  • springheel_jack

    I'll be going short at 960 and closing the shorts if we reach 980. If we do reach 980 we will probably reach 1000 IMHO.

    There doesn't seem enough puff left in the market though to blow this bubble up that much further.

    Bears seem an endangered species nowadays, but the underlying picture isn't improving really. Odd really. It seems like the vultures are starving in the midst of plenty. It can't last.

  • springheel_jack

    Mole, you were talking the other day about an SPX that yielded 15x to 20x last year. What was that play exactly, taken out when, how far out of the money etc?

    Useful info if it looks like we might repeat what we did last year later in 2009.

  • springheel_jack

    One of the most interesting arguments about inflation is whether you can only have inflation in an expanding economy, the classical or Keynesian view, or whether Friedman was right in saying that inflation is purely a monetary phenomenon.

    If Friedman was right, then we will not need recovery to spark inflation. Looking at the 70s & stagflation, and more recently at hyperinflation in Zimbabwe at a time of economic collapse, Friedman could well be right.

    In a sense, that is the vast experiment that governments are conducting right now. After they get their answer, it should be definively resolved one way or the other.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Those are stops, in case the trades moves against the position. It did….pretty darn strongly–Amazing for nighttime.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    And yes it did…..strong up.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Remember when auto majors' bankruptcy would not be allowed to happen? A piece today by Joesph Stiglitz is (IMO) a step towards the takeover of C and BAC:

    http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/06/09/a

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    ES Futures, normally pretty light at night.
    These are the numbers shown on TOS as the current closest bid and ask.
    I would probably call them “open interest” but that probably wouldnt be technically correct.

  • molecool

    Search this blog for '$4000' – it's the one titled 'Analysis of missed opportunity'.

  • springheel_jack

    That could be a cup with handle. That would be very bullish & indicate considerably more upside. It comes down a little too much on the handle though I think.

    Pretty pattern in any case. As you say, it looks like a bird of prey.

  • springheel_jack

    Thanks.

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    (Repost)
    As I mention in the chart, I'm generally opposed to throwing alternate wave counts out here, because Mole is usually right in the end. That said, I think this one has some merit, and does a decent job of explaining the recent chop. As a bonus, it also means the bears out here are in for a nice treat in the coming weeks — though I do expect one more higher high.

    Daily: http://screencast.com/t/i1umvVz0V8x
    Hourly: http://screencast.com/t/KsI8sB7l

    Any comments would be greatly appreciated. Seriously, I really want some feedback on this.
    Cheers!

  • Osso

    hope he doesnt end like Krugman.

  • annamall

    Whoa Mole, are you up early!! It's only 5:20 out there. Hope today we get some confirmation, I do see Gold, oil, Silver are all higher.

  • annamall

    Morning fellow traders!
    Today should be another interesting day, and hopefully we get some confirmation one way or another, but with the GS boyz running the tape mostly, who knows what can happen.
    I am long oil, Gold (not silver) but I notice when the commodities are up, so is the tape to speak of.

    Good luck today everyone and let's stay in the game, live to trade another day my daddy always told me! 🙂

  • TomOfTheNorth

    As in 'we've turned the corner'? No, not what this is about. Rather, he argues that Govt policies mistakenly support failed bankers as opposed to supporting failed banks. He's coming right out of the Bill Seidman playbook. Take them over, clean them up, turn them out. Repeat. His is an influential voice that may nudge policy makers further along this path.

  • annamall

    Thanks for the work Nepharis! The hourly chart looks to me almost to a T like Moles. At this point everyday is a guessing game.
    I am net long, but heged with some short positions, as Tim Knight says, I am a much better Bear than Bull but I will be whatever the markets are telling me to be.
    🙂

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/iJx7nE2BxjE

    Just some really interesting patterns playing out on this premarket tape.

  • Osso

    yes….read the link…….i was referring to the Krugmans “pancake syndrome”…as a general attitude….. tks.

  • springheel_jack

    Nice charts. Counts looked solid to my relatively untrained eye. The daily chart particularly looked very solid though from a bear's perspective it seemed obvious that wave 5 could top out anywhere up to 1100 & be consistent with your count.

    It all depends how much life is left in the bulls. Has the sideways trading over the last month been consolidation or exhaustion. That really is the question.

  • alphahorn

    good morning all, this market has me scratching my head a bit. the end of the day on the SPX screamed reversal, so do the candles on many stocks such as GOOG, yet we also had a reversal candle on both the $ and gold yesterday. I closed my commodity shorts yesterday before the market and switched to FAS after we put in the 5th wave down and road it to the retest of the wedge where I switched to FAZ. I'm not sure what it's going to do today, will it retest the wedge again and get rejected? or will it continue on to the 960 area? i have no clue, so will watch till i do

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    One thing that is often overlooked is that if dollar keeps tanking, then SPX could keep going up in terms of USD…. but if normalized against USD, it would actually have gone down.

    Just a week ago, the weekly gain on SPX was 2%, but dollar index fell 5% –> meaning that SPX actually fell 3% if measured in some currency other than dollar.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    As in systemic collapse? Krugman is now practically a green shoots guy…..

  • Osso

    NEW YORK (Reuters) — Texas Instruments raised its targets for second-quarter earnings and revenue, signaling improving demand in the chip market, and its shares rose 4%.

    Semis, a laggard, will be moving on news today.

  • springheel_jack

    USD is having a bad morning so far, falling against GBP, JPY & EUR. Gold, silver, oil all well up. Interesting.

  • springheel_jack

    i've been having exactly that problem holding gold & silver out of my GBP accounts. In GBP terms, I missed the whole the recent rise in gold & silver over the last month because USd fell against GBP faster than either was rising.

    Annoying.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    good morning folks. Yesterday was a very interesting day for ES traders. Down early in the day only to whip back up to new highs of the day and then bounce off those highs back down to the 930s. My morning gains were pretty much wiped out towards the end of the day, but I did not end up in negative territory. I will take that as a lesson learned: Take profits when the direction is not concrete. I let the winners run a little too long which didnt help much in yesterdays action. Lets see if today brings any sense of direction. Good luck to all

  • Douala

    As for mole's mystery June 24-25 dates.

    On Friday and again on Monday the 2-Year T-Note yield rose upwards to its highest level in 7 months. Is this a “fear signal” that the Feds may possibly raise short term rates at their next meeting [June 23-24]? If so then could this be the trigger for the expected sell off in stocks?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/76ldlCPOq1z

  • C.C. Rider

    Bank Index is coiling for a move here to I think 45.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX&p=D&yr=0&

  • onorio

    Morning anna!

    In fact “live to trade another day” is the quote of our days, this market want to wipe everybody before P3.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    EUR/USD will determine where we go.

    Going back to early in the morning on June 5th, I had posted this chart – http://mylifemytrade.com/2009-06-04-eur-usd-dai
    as part of the article http://mylifemytrade.com/archives.html#eur-usd-…. The first target was 1.3800, which is what we hit yesterday and have bounced back up nicely. If 1.3800 was going to be taken out, it wasn't gonna be on the first go.. ]

    IMO we will go back up to 1.4100 at a minimum. If 1.4100 is breached to the upside, then EUR/USD upside will resume.. and the indices and esp commodities will continue to melt up… We just breached 1.4000 as I type…

    On the way down 1.4100 was a tough barrier to overcome for EUR/USD – so even on the way up, it might cause some resistance. For me the lines in sand are 1.4100 to the upside and 1.3800 to the downside.

  • callie

    EURUSD now above 1.40 again – Goldman Sachs had a 'buy' this morning on it, target 1.45, commodity bears beware…

  • Osso

    watching GS at 151.17…then 155.39

  • Osso

    its part of their Oil play in the futures……

  • mrclam

    Market seems to really lagging the EURUSD today.

  • annamall

    Morning O, Yes, my dad worked as a financial analyst and that was always his mantra. I am my Daddy's daughter for sure 😉

    It looks that way doesn't it.

  • Osso

    wxpecting the CSCO pump…today

  • v8muscle

    well here we go. “10 banks paying back the TARP”. The pump is on. And I put that in Quotes because its bullshit news

  • v8muscle

    possibly. I highly highly doubt the fed will raise rates though

  • thelefteyeguy

    I agree…this thurs we'll see the 10year bond get bitch slapped around

  • v8muscle

    VIX way down so far today, I dont think that 960 is unreasonable today.

  • annamall

    Here is another spread I am putting on today CHL (China Mobile) JULY 55/60 VCS.

  • annamall

    Hi V8!

  • annamall

    You too Candle. 🙂

  • Osso

    lets hope we get it done soon……not better news than today to pump this shitty mkt.

  • v8muscle

    You getting into RIMM at all? i think i might take the Jun 85/90/95 butterfly

  • springheel_jack

    Well, that would more than double the progress made since the 930 high over a month ago.

    Might be a tall order to do that in a single day.

  • onorio

    Well guys/gals, since i`m not gonna be arround today for the rest of the day, just to wish you all good luck today!

    See ya!

  • v8muscle

    Hey! Good luck today! Hopefully we'll have a repeat of yesterday lol

  • v8muscle

    18 points from here, doesnt seem too tough

  • newbear

    Especially in the last hour. 🙂

  • C.C. Rider

    952 gets breached today. Put your hardhat on! We may hit our heads today.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Closed half on my OIH, FCX calls at 110 and 58 respectively

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Out of all my AEM calls at 58.xx

  • fuw

    haven't we heard this for a couple of days now? 😉

  • dnarby

    Hey all,

    The blatant puke inducing EOD action actually inspired me to make a blog post (not a plug, just a place to collect my poor scattered thoughts).

    http://stocktock.ning.com/profiles/blogs/die-yo

    Title is from an appropriate Motörhead song.

    JMHOP

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    so far it looks to be a chop chop day and not a trending day – which means that we might visit the overnight lows on the futures.

  • annamall

    You too sweetie! 😀 Apple now turned green. yes!

  • C.C. Rider

    AD nauseum

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Just broke below the VWAP on /NQ – good chance we visit 1490 – 1491.

    TICK has been more negative than positive last 15 minutes..

  • annamall

    Have a good day Onorio! Hurry back! 🙂

  • alphahorn

    took profits on half my FAZ, added LBTYA and NFLX short along with HIG, still have NAVR long and VIX calls

  • thelefteyeguy

    even the Tarp repayment bullshit isnt making everyone dump money into the stock market.

  • annamall

    Hi Alpha, You like trading HIG don't you? 😉 is it a good one to swing trade?

  • alphahorn

    yes, and it was downgraded today, i moves quite a bit in 1 to 2 week blocks

  • C.C. Rider

    Who blinks first! I'm watching 938 and 952 as important pivots.

  • Douala

    FYI

    Saw this on a blog who subscribes to some sort of financial news letter [“STU”]. It pertains to the relationship between silver & gold.

    “In the meantime, the Dollar appears to be solidly rallying, and bonds appear to be bottoming. A T-Bond rally is at hand. These moves might end the recent speculative bubblet in commodities, including oil. Most interesting, the “STU” watches the gold/silver ratio. When silver outperforms gold, it suggests a return of an appetite for risk, which we have seen across many markets since Mar6. When this flips and gold outperforms silver, it suggests a return to fear and an avoidance of risk. It is reversing, which signals the end of this wave [2] bubble echo rally is nearing; but the “STU” still expects a Final Surge before the end, later this summer.”

  • annamall

    Nice thanks! Do you short it or do options if you don't mind me asking?

  • Douala

    Here is chart for the silver:gold

    http://tinyurl.com/meugwg

  • Osso

    thats EWI short term update (STU)…..

  • alphahorn

    i usually short it

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    For bulls, it is important that overnight lows on ES and NQ hold.. else we are headed to yesterday's lows.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Long 1 /NQ here

  • annamall

    Thanks I may join you on that one! 🙂

  • annamall

    USD getting smoked again today!

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Participation is reducing to ridiculous levels.. Never seen zero lay flat against zero line like this for most part of the first 60 minutes of the day – crazy shit. I think GS boyz are sick of the tape too – LOL

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    It was due for a pullback. UUP experienced a high volume failed breakdown at the $23.85 area. Failed moves tend to head quickly in the opposite direction. I'm thinking a couple of days of pullback here and as long as it carves a higher low we'll see the dollar heading back to late Feb levels. JMO

  • alphahorn

    i hope it's just a correction of the past move up

  • Eric_in_SFL

    Trade Ideas 06/09/09

    Buy

    GD 59.50

    UTX 55.25

    Sell

    BAX 48

    MDT 34.50

    MCD 59.90

    1-3 Holds

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    May be the correlation is about to break up. The correlation is good as long as it lasts.. at some point the correlation stops being existent.. That’s why I do not rely on one indicator like this solely.

    Realizing that the correlation has broken up can take some time and a lot of damage can happen in that time.

  • annamall

    it's getting rather nuts! Yes, this tape is like watching paint dry. ahhhhhh 😉

  • v8muscle

    the so called “tape” now largely consists of 1 minute candles of alternating colors that basically reverse each other's price movement lol

  • annamall

    Another spread idea NTES JULY 40/45 VCS debit .78 Max Profit 4.22 on or before July OPX

  • springheel_jack

    I know. i was just joking that in this market any move of significance seems tough.

    We're in a rut.

  • Duuuuuude

    Yes…..could go lower, but I still anticipate a move to 82.5, which would be a 50% retracement from the April high, against the 200 day MA, and against an upper trend line from back in September. It did touch the 38.2% Retracement interday yesterday. I am not saying we will get there, but my plan is to load up on some gold, silver, and miners options at that point. http://screencast.com/t/NaxkssjTeV

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    One thing bothering me about this move up today is that GOOG & AAPL are in red.

  • alphahorn
  • springheel_jack

    That is interesting. Thanks.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Closed long /NQ a while back at 1497 and shorted it – stop moved to VWAP 1496

  • dullmind

    Not that I have not believed in the Goldman conspiracy of late, however found out from my brother this morning
    that PG (Procter & Gamble Co) announced positive earnings, yesterday, and its stock spiked when we all saw
    the S&P500 spike, also Motley Fool published a favorable story (but after 4pm?). Maybe that was the FOG
    yesterday. I remember thinking it odd the run up began at 3:20pm, early enough for bears to cover and buying
    to trail off. Maybe yesterday was not a Goldman FOG after all? Just a thought.

  • v8muscle

    running stops before a big move?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Short 1 /YG from 957.7 – stop at 958.8 (prev swing high on 1 min char)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    From my “hot knife theory” article, QQQQs are the ones in “NO resistance” zone on the daily – they got to keep moving up.. else this thing will fall apart.. Still looking to buy dips with scalping shorts here and there…

  • lester

    I have been sitting on my hands trying to determine my next move. But I gotta say this market is freaking ridiculous. With all the bullishness about QQQQ to 40, AAPL, RIMM etc, I was considering going long the QQQQ. And now I see it dropping like a rock. WTF is going on? Just glad I have not made any stupid trades today….

  • ropey

    Lester just wait until the market shows its hand, when it does and it's confirmed there will be plenty of time to jump on and ride it. You do not have to trade every day and you're likely to nuke your account very quickly with the chop and indecision.

  • v8muscle

    Added some longs at the bottom

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    1 min candles – alternating colors – LOL – this is true “tape painting”

    ________________________________

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Covering NQ short for 5 points.

  • newbear

    I have to admit that buying dips with scalping shorts is really the only way to make money in this market until it changes. Trying to predict the change ahead of time has cost me. So I'll join in until it stops working.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Deep red color of AAPL & GOOG continues to bother me.

  • v8muscle

    SPY:
    Volume: 62,129,425
    Avg Vol (3m): 299,979,000

  • callie

    That's also my take on it.

  • katzo7

    I have determined that there are only three bears left in the entire world, TK, Blind S., and me.
    LOL

  • isaiah64v4

    Les

    I understand you wanting to trade especially to recoup your losses. Why not paper trade instead and sharpen your read of the market?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    The lines in sand that Mole has – unless one of them is breached – dont place a big trade.. Place something that you can close out with a tight stop.

  • v8muscle

    google dropped off a cliff at 10:15

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Trying to short since 750 – I lost my shirt and the shirt I borrowed from the neighbor (No I did not borrow money from my neighbor to trade) … Figured the right way to trade this around 880

  • v8muscle

    + all of xtrends lol

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    We are approaching the overnight lows – if they are taken out, then we head to yesterday's lows OR a slight headfake below them might send us soaring

  • lester

    Here is another comment that make no sense. I was listening to financial guy Jonathan Hoenig on the radio in Chicago this morning and he said he will buy APPL once it reaches 155-160 and MCD at 65. I thought the idea was to buy low and sell high. This sounds like buying high and hoping the move continues. The interviewer on the radio said “why not buy APPL now if you think it is going to 160”.

  • lester

    I agree, just watching….

  • ropey

    i'd hardly call 6 points on GOOG falling off a cliff 🙂
    Although the ladies mention an island reversal yesterday so will see how it pans out..

  • springheel_jack

    Good advice.

  • annamall

    May go long @ 934.50 ES

  • alphahorn

    added another small cap long HGRD

    http://screencast.com/t/sSctTsj7

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    That would 1.5 people – 1 for Aquaman and 0.5 for his deeply underwater, hopefully solvent bro

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Dear TICK does not look good – be careful.

  • alphahorn

    added ERY long

  • ropey

    nods with regards to MCD – missed the short entry at 61 the other day which irked me somewhat – great stock for trading either way.

  • annamall

    Katzo baby…. I am a full fledged Bear 😉 I just sometimes put on my bulls horns to make a few bucks.

  • annamall

    Just jumped in HIG Alpha, thank you!

  • v8muscle

    When there is a lack of clear direction I like to take a step back and see where we are, so here is a quick look at where we are in the 60 day /ES chart.

    http://screencast.com/t/n7aNDCKkHqY

  • cuvo

    UNG – As price has been trendingdown today, A/D has been rising

  • springheel_jack

    Four including me katzo!

    Looking at comments on blogs, it appear that this rally cannot end until all four of us are either dead or wiped out. Don't give your personal details to anyone just in case someone decides the process needs a helping hand.

    I was expecting an early impulsive move up followed by a powerful move down. I've more or less given up on the early impulsive move up. Shame, that would have been a great short entry point. I think we're going down from here today.

  • rhae

    Did he say what his timeframe was? 1 Day, 1Week, 1 Month, 6 Months, 1 Year? With out that info… it is impossible to have any idea what they are talking about…

    I think APPL will go to 200, 50 year time frame… buy, buy,buy… why would I want to buy ? I will be Dead…

  • GDII

    very interesting. let me think of it

  • v8muscle

    lol true, GOOG is pretty stable though so thats a sharp drop for that type of stock

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Has anyone noticed in the morning that options of some securities are not available for as much as 5 minutes

    AEM is an example – I wanted to close the damn thing at opne.. and by the time options started trading, it had traded down $1 from the opening price.

  • katzo7

    I know, I know SHJack, just trying to elicit some commentary. Just a joke. I know there are others too.
    GOING LONG HERE. just kidding again. LOL

  • v8muscle

    its actually heading up now and it looks like it has bottomed
    http://screencast.com/t/NoeE97Yw

  • lester

    No he did not. He just said he would buy AAPL if it got to 155-160.
    Main reason I posted this was I wondered about his rationale to buy at a
    certain target price that is above the current price.

  • v8muscle

    thats why I stick to index options lol

  • lester

    It would have felt like a cliff if you owned some Calls

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I have to admit that the “long” case is not looking good – QQQQs got to lead.. the tickers that lead QQQQs are deep in red – AAPPL, GOOG already there.. RIMM, AMZN about to get there… This could really turn ugly pretty quickly … Tomorrows lows are upon us IMO.. I am glad I closed out more than 50% of my long positions near or after open.. At this point scalp using futures is the name of the game.

  • alphahorn

    thank me when we cover, hopefully in single digits

  • springheel_jack

    LOL. I'm serious about your personal details though. It is very clear from skimming numerous bearish blogs that all an impatient bear needs to do is kill all four of us and then the rally will magically end as the last bear bites the dust.

    I'm sure I saw something like that in Sleeping Beauty or Peter Pan or something, so it must be true.

  • innatedc

    Hey gang,
    Does anyone have any thoughts or links for the direction of the dollar in the intermediate term (3-4 months)….I am making a very important purchase and need to decide to take advantage or not based on the dollar's movement in the next while. Your comments are very appreciated.

  • v8muscle

    i disagree. I think this is just the backfill after that move yesterday at EOD

  • Paleface

    Two channels on 5 min SPX crossing @935.
    Sorry no chart, jing wants an update…

  • Paleface
  • v8muscle

    I have a feeling the dollar might appreciate a bit. /DX is near the bottom of its channel and the Eur/USD just broke its channel up (http://screencast.com/t/5a1ahuTzUHu)

  • Duuuuuude

    I posted this earlier, but I anticipate a move to 82.5, which would be a 50% retracement from the April high, against the 200 day MA, and against an upper trend line from back in September. It did touch the 38.2% Retracement interday yesterday. I am not saying we will get there, but my plan is to load up on some gold, silver, and miners options at that point. http://screencast.com/t/NaxkssjTeV I am thinking this will happen sometime over this month as this seems to be moving quickly.

  • cuvo
  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Closing my gold short here for 4 points

  • lester

    I had something even worse happen to me with DNDN in May. For some bizzarre reason my broker changed an option symbol overnight. I tried to sell the option on-line and could not. I had to call the broker to unload the position and I was down $200 by the time it closed.

  • lester

    you are the bull. At what level would you go long today?

  • annamall

    😀 ok

  • springheel_jack

    My personal take is that that USD will strengthen until the end of August or September and will then start weakening again at some point after that.

    I'm probably in a minority here though as many here expect a weakening USD & inversely correlated strengthening equities over this period. I am expect the reverse.

  • annamall

    Thanks Paleface, that looks like just where I will go long 🙂

  • cuvo
  • annamall

    will do! 🙂

  • ItsOnlyPaper
  • v8muscle

    I added earlier around 936.5 on /es

  • colonel_bleep

    Mama mia. A penny stock triple in less than a week? General Motors…

  • alphahorn

    the SPX likes triangles more than Ed Grimley

    <object width=”425″ height=”344″><param name=”movie” value=”http://www.youtube.com/v/axlHMllZVtY&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1″></param><param name=”allowFullScreen” value=”true”></param><embed src=”http://www.youtube.com/v/axlHMllZVtY&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1″ type=”application/x-shockwave-flash” allowfullscreen=”true” width=”425″ height=”344″></embed></object>

  • katzo7

    This sideways action is where they usually explode it higher. Will it happen or do they mix it up today.

  • v8muscle

    I'm completely with you!

  • annamall

    I might have missed it. I was going to do 935.50, but kept moving it down. (ah well)

  • v8muscle

    since its happened about 100000 times before in this retard's rally you have to trade as if the trend will continue.

  • innatedc

    Thanks so much V8…that helps…confirms my thinking- great chart +1

  • innatedc

    Thanks to you too, duuude. +1

  • lester

    thanks. I am just watching.

  • Trader Jose
  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • jbr

    Or, you don't have to trade.

  • v8muscle

    random thought about how this thing is getting pumped up so high….

    What if 2 traders in the same bank were taking each others trade? aka 1 trader placing a high bid and the other trader selling his shares to him. With that, there would be no net gain/loss to the bank itself because of the offsetting P/L but the price would uptick.

    This could also be done with colluding banks or brokerages with the same effect. Everyone would win in the end because GS can issue shares at 120 and BAC can issue shares at 11 and so on….. its basically free money.

    thoughts?

  • katzo7

    Email
    katzo368 at gmail dot com

  • innatedc

    Thanks Jose…..+1

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I am sorry this happened to you. I can understand and it can be frustrating… This happened to me when a stock split and the options were re-named or some such thing happened.

  • alphahorn

    didn't we have a full moon last night??? what's up wit dat, why no change in direction today???

  • lester

    I am glad to know that I am not the only one that has seen this problem.
    I thought Fraudelity was just messin with me.

  • Squidman

    The bus is loading, get on!

  • katzo7

    Just went long.
    Orange juice futures. LOL This is a joke.

  • Osso

    share that….

  • rhae

    I believe it is generally true that strong stocks will continue to get stronger as long as the remain in an uptrending bull channel… and that may be all he is looking at?
    The first thing I do is pull up my own chart and take a look.
    Note: the deadly doji at the channel top… would I buy the break out?, probably not , I would have to see volume…
    Fujisan wrote a nice article a few weeks ago about where to buy with reasonable risk.
    AAPL daily http://screencast.com/t/oHpiu22M

  • rhae

    me me… bearish since Friday

  • katzo7

    You went in at the very top IMO. Nice call.

  • Trader Jose

    You are welcome, innatedc.

  • Osso

    watching GS at 151.17…then 155.39

  • mrclam

    Market seems to really lagging the EURUSD today.

  • Osso

    wxpecting the CSCO pump…today

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    well here we go. “10 banks paying back the TARP”. The pump is on. And I put that in Quotes because its bullshit news

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    possibly. I highly highly doubt the fed will raise rates though

  • thelefteyeguy

    I agree…tomorrow we'll see the 10year bond get bitch slapped around

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    VIX way down so far today, I dont think that 960 is unreasonable today.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Here is another spread I am putting on today CHL (China Mobile) JULY 55/60 VCS. Debit .87 possible return @ or before JULY OPX 4.13

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Hi V8!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    You too Candle. 🙂

  • Osso

    lets hope we get it done soon……not better news than today to pump this shitty mkt.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    You getting into RIMM at all? i think i might take the Jun 85/90/95 butterfly

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Well, that would more than double the progress made since the 930 high over a month ago.

    Might be a tall order to do that in a single day.

  • Onorio

    Well guys/gals, since i`m not gonna be arround today for the rest of the day, just to wish you all good luck today!

    See ya!

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Hey! Good luck today! Hopefully we'll have a repeat of yesterday lol

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    18 points from here, doesnt seem too tough

  • newbear

    Especially in the last hour. 🙂

  • C.C. Rider

    952 gets breached today. Put your hardhat on! We may hit our heads today.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Closed half on my OIH, FCX calls at 110 and 58 respectively

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Out of all my AEM calls at 58.xx

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I am in the 90/95 June VCS, if RIMM beats earnings, then it can move 10-15% easily, last month I did the BF and it moved into the body of the butterfly, and I ended up losing on it. 🙂

  • fuw

    haven't we heard this for a couple of days now? 😉

  • http://thetaildoesnotwagthedog.blogspot.com/ dnarby

    Hey all,

    The blatant puke inducing EOD action actually inspired me to make a blog post (not a plug, just a place to collect my poor scattered thoughts).

    http://stocktock.ning.com/profiles/blogs/die-yo

    Title is from an appropriate Motörhead song.

    JMHOP

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    so far it looks to be a chop chop day and not a trending day – which means that we might visit the overnight lows on the futures.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    You too sweetie! 😀 Apple now turned green. yes!

  • C.C. Rider

    AD nauseum

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Just broke below the VWAP on /NQ – good chance we visit 1490 – 1491.

    TICK has been more negative than positive last 15 minutes..

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Have a good day Onorio! Hurry back! 🙂

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    took profits on half my FAZ, added LBTYA and NFLX short along with HIG, still have NAVR long and VIX calls

  • thelefteyeguy

    even the Tarp repayment bullshit isnt making everyone dump money into the stock market.

    but apparently…the market does move when some guy predicts the recession to end in a couple months (but sang a different song just a few weeks ago)…that's F'ed up

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Hi Alpha, You like trading HIG don't you? 😉 is it a good one to swing trade?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    yes, and it was downgraded today, it moves quite a bit in 1 to 2 week blocks

  • C.C. Rider

    Who blinks first! I'm watching 938 and 952 as important pivots.

  • Douala

    FYI

    Saw this on a blog who subscribes to some sort of financial news letter [“STU”]. It pertains to the relationship between silver & gold.

    “In the meantime, the Dollar appears to be solidly rallying, and bonds appear to be bottoming. A T-Bond rally is at hand. These moves might end the recent speculative bubblet in commodities, including oil. Most interesting, the “STU” watches the gold/silver ratio. When silver outperforms gold, it suggests a return of an appetite for risk, which we have seen across many markets since Mar6. When this flips and gold outperforms silver, it suggests a return to fear and an avoidance of risk. It is reversing, which signals the end of this wave [2] bubble echo rally is nearing; but the “STU” still expects a Final Surge before the end, later this summer.”

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Nice thanks! Do you short it or do options if you don't mind me asking?

  • Douala

    Here is chart for the silver:gold

    http://tinyurl.com/meugwg

  • Osso

    thats EWI short term update (STU)…..

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i usually short it. i think it will go to near 0 at some point, i'm scaling in this time when we finally turn i'll jump all over it

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    For bulls, it is important that overnight lows on ES and NQ hold.. else we are headed to yesterday's lows.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Long 1 /NQ here

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Thanks I may join you on that one! 🙂

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    USD getting smoked again today!

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Participation is reducing to ridiculous levels.. Never seen zero lay flat against zero line like this for most part of the first 60 minutes of the day – crazy shit. I think GS boyz are sick of the tape too – LOL

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    It was due for a pullback. UUP experienced a high volume failed breakdown at the $23.85 area. Failed moves tend to head quickly in the opposite direction. I'm thinking a couple of days of pullback here and as long as it carves a higher low we'll see the dollar heading back to late Feb levels. JMO

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i hope it's just a correction of the past move up

  • Eric_in_SFL

    Trade Ideas 06/09/09

    Buy

    GD 59.50

    UTX 55.25

    Sell

    BAX 48

    MDT 34.50

    MCD 59.90

    1-3 Holds

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    May be the correlation is about to break up. The correlation is good as long as it lasts.. at some point the correlation stops being existent.. That’s why I do not rely on one indicator like this solely.

    Realizing that the correlation has broken up can take some time and a lot of damage can happen in that time.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    it's getting rather nuts! Yes, this tape is like watching paint dry. ahhhhhh 😉

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    the so called “tape” now largely consists of 1 minute candles of alternating colors that basically reverse each other's price movement lol

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Another spread idea NTES JULY 40/45 VCS debit .78 Max Profit 4.22 on or before July OPX

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    I know. i was just joking that in this market any move of significance seems tough.

    We're in a rut.

  • Duuuuuude

    Yes…..could go lower, but I still anticipate a move to 82.5, which would be a 50% retracement from the April high, against the 200 day MA, and against an upper trend line from back in September. It did touch the 38.2% Retracement interday yesterday. I am not saying we will get there, but my plan is to load up on some gold, silver, and miners options at that point. http://screencast.com/t/NaxkssjTeV

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    One thing bothering me about this move up today is that GOOG & AAPL are in red.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    That is interesting. Thanks.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Closed long /NQ a while back at 1497 and shorted it – stop moved to VWAP 1496

  • dullmind

    Not that I have not believed in the Goldman conspiracy of late, however found out from my brother this morning
    that PG (Procter & Gamble Co) announced positive earnings, yesterday, and its stock spiked when we all saw
    the S&P500 spike, also Motley Fool published a favorable story (but after 4pm?). Maybe that was the FOG
    yesterday. I remember thinking it odd the run up began at 3:20pm, early enough for bears to cover and buying
    to trail off. Maybe yesterday was not a Goldman FOG after all? Just a thought.

    As of now, 10:50am EST we seem to be re-treating back to where we idled along yesterday. Meaning no confirmation
    of Mole's green or blue…. damm….

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    running stops before a big move?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Short 1 /YG from 957.7 – stop at 958.8 (prev swing high on 1 min char)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    From my “hot knife theory” article, QQQQs are the ones in “NO resistance” zone on the daily – they got to keep moving up.. else this thing will fall apart.. Still looking to buy dips with scalping shorts here and there…

  • lester

    I have been sitting on my hands trying to determine my next move. But I gotta say this market is freaking ridiculous. With all the bullishness about QQQQ to 40, AAPL, RIMM etc, I was considering going long the QQQQ. And now I see it dropping like a rock. WTF is going on? Just glad I have not made any stupid trades today….

  • ropey

    Lester just wait until the market shows its hand, when it does and it's confirmed there will be plenty of time to jump on and ride it. You do not have to trade every day and you're likely to nuke your account very quickly with the chop and indecision.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Added some longs at the bottom of that dip

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    1 min candles – alternating colors – LOL – this is true “tape painting”

    ________________________________

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Covering NQ short for 5 points.

  • newbear

    I have to admit that buying dips with scalping shorts is really the only way to make money in this market until it changes. Trying to predict the change ahead of time has cost me. So I'll join in until it stops working.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Deep red color of AAPL & GOOG continues to bother me.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    SPY:
    Volume: 62,129,425
    Avg Vol (3m): 299,979,000

  • Callie

    That's also my take on it.

  • katzo7

    I have determined that there are only three bears left in the entire world, TK, Blind S., and me.
    LOL

    Watch 934-5.

  • isaiah64v4

    Les

    I understand you wanting to trade especially to recoup your losses. Why not paper trade instead and sharpen your read of the market?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    The lines in sand that Mole has – unless one of them is breached – dont place a big trade.. Place something that you can close out with a tight stop.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    google dropped off a cliff at 10:15

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Trying to short since 750 – I lost my shirt and the shirt I borrowed from the neighbor (No I did not borrow money from my neighbor to trade) … Figured the right way to trade this around 880

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    + all of xtrends lol

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    We are approaching the overnight lows – if they are taken out, then we head to yesterday's lows OR a slight headfake below them might send us soaring

  • lester

    Here is another comment that make no sense. I was listening to financial guy Jonathan Hoenig on the radio in Chicago this morning and he said he will buy APPL once it reaches 155-160 and MCD at 65. I thought the idea was to buy low and sell high. This sounds like buying high and hoping the move continues. The interviewer on the radio said “why not buy APPL now if you think it is going to 160”.

  • lester

    I agree, just watching….

  • ropey

    i'd hardly call 6 points on GOOG falling off a cliff 🙂
    Although the ladies mention an island reversal yesterday so will see how it pans out..

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Good advice.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    May go long @ 934.25 ES

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    added another small cap long HGRD

    http://screencast.com/t/sSctTsj7

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    That would 1.5 people – 1 for Aquaman and 0.5 for his deeply underwater, hopefully solvent bro

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Dear TICK does not look good – be careful.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    added ERY long

  • ropey

    nods with regards to MCD – missed the short entry at 61 the other day which irked me somewhat – great stock for trading either way.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Katzo baby…. I am a full fledged Bear 😉 I just sometimes put on my bulls horns to make a few bucks.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Just jumped in HIG Alpha, thank you!

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    When there is a lack of clear direction I like to take a step back and see where we are, so here is a quick look at where we are in the 60 day /ES chart.

    http://screencast.com/t/n7aNDCKkHqY

  • cuvo

    UNG – As price has been trending down today, A/D has been rising

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Four including me katzo!

    Looking at comments on blogs, it appears that this rally cannot end until all four of us are either dead or wiped out. Don't give your personal details to anyone just in case someone decides the process needs a helping hand.

    I was expecting an early impulsive move up followed by a powerful move down. I've more or less given up on the early impulsive move up. Shame, that would have been a great short entry point. I think we're going down from here today.

  • rhae

    Did he say what his timeframe was? 1 Day, 1Week, 1 Month, 6 Months, 1 Year? With out that info… it is impossible to have any idea what they are talking about…

    I think APPL will go to 200, 50 year time frame… buy, buy,buy… why would I want to buy ? I will be Dead…

  • http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/ Boris

    very interesting. let me think of it

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    lol true, GOOG is pretty stable though so thats a sharp drop for that type of stock

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Has anyone noticed in the morning that options of some securities are not available for as much as 5 minutes

    AEM is an example – I wanted to close the damn thing at opne.. and by the time options started trading, it had traded down $1 from the opening price.

  • katzo7

    I know, I know SHJack, just trying to elicit some commentary. Just a joke. I know there are others too.
    GOING LONG HERE. just kidding again. LOL

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    its actually heading up now and it looks like it has bottomed
    http://screencast.com/t/NoeE97Yw

  • makethatmoney1

    Newbie q – What is A/D?

  • lester

    No he did not. He just said he would buy AAPL if it got to 155-160.
    Main reason I posted this was I wondered about his rationale to buy at a
    certain target price that is above the current price.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    thats why I stick to index options lol

  • lester

    It would have felt like a cliff if you owned some Calls

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I have to admit that the “long” case is not looking good – QQQQs got to lead.. the tickers that lead QQQQs are deep in red – AAPPL, GOOG already there.. RIMM, AMZN about to get there… This could really turn ugly pretty quickly … Tomorrows lows are upon us IMO.. I am glad I closed out more than 50% of my long positions near or after open.. At this point scalp using futures is the name of the game.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    thank me when we cover, hopefully in single digits

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    LOL. I'm serious about your personal details though. It is very clear from skimming numerous bearish blogs that all an impatient bear needs to do is kill all four of us and then the rally will magically end as the last bear bites the dust.

    I'm sure I saw something like that in Sleeping Beauty or Peter Pan or something, so it must be true.

  • innatedc

    Hey gang,
    Does anyone have any thoughts or links for the direction of the dollar in the intermediate term (3-4 months)….I am making a very important purchase and need to decide to take advantage or not based on the dollar's movement in the next while. Your comments are very appreciated.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    i disagree. I think this is just the backfill after that move yesterday at EOD

  • Paleface

    Two channels on 5 min SPX crossing @935.
    Sorry no chart, jing wants an update…

  • Paleface
  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I have a feeling the dollar might appreciate a bit. /DX is near the bottom of its channel and the Eur/USD just broke its channel up (http://screencast.com/t/5a1ahuTzUHu)

  • Duuuuuude

    I posted this earlier, but I anticipate a move to 82.5, which would be a 50% retracement from the April high, against the 200 day MA, and against an upper trend line from back in September. It did touch the 38.2% Retracement interday yesterday. I am not saying we will get there, but my plan is to load up on some gold, silver, and miners options at that point. http://screencast.com/t/NaxkssjTeV I am thinking this will happen sometime over this month as this seems to be moving quickly.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Closing my gold short here for 4 points

  • lester

    I had something even worse happen to me with DNDN in May. For some bizzarre reason my broker changed an option symbol overnight. I tried to sell the option on-line and could not. I had to call the broker to unload the position and I was down $200 by the time it closed.

  • lester

    you are the bull. At what level would you go long today?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    😀 ok

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    My personal take is that that USD will strengthen until the end of August or September and will then start weakening again at some point after that.

    I'm probably in a minority here though as many here expect a weakening USD & inversely correlated strengthening equities over this period. I am expecting the reverse.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Thanks Paleface, that looks like just where I will go long 🙂

  • cuvo
  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    will do! 🙂

  • ItsOnlyPaper
  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I added earlier around 936.5 on /es

  • colonel_bleep

    Mama mia. A penny stock triple in less than a week? General Motors…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • katzo7

    This sideways action is where they usually explode it higher. Will it happen or do they mix it up today.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I'm completely with you!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I might have missed it. I was going to do 935.50, but kept moving it down. (ah well)

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    since its happened about 100000 times before in this retard's rally you have to trade as if the trend will continue.

  • innatedc

    Thanks so much V8…that helps…confirms my thinking- great chart +1

  • innatedc

    Thanks to you too, duuude. +1

  • lester

    thanks. I am just watching.

  • Trader Jose
  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
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  • jbr

    Or, you don't have to trade.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    random thought about how this thing is getting pumped up so high….

    What if 2 traders in the same bank were taking each others trade? aka 1 trader placing a high bid and the other trader selling his shares to him. With that, there would be no net gain/loss to the bank itself because of the offsetting P/L but the price would uptick.

    This could also be done with colluding banks or brokerages with the same effect. Everyone would win in the end because GS can issue shares at 120 and BAC can issue shares at 11 and so on….. its basically free money.

    thoughts?

  • katzo7

    Email

  • innatedc

    Thanks Jose…..+1

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I am sorry this happened to you. I can understand and it can be frustrating… This happened to me when a stock split and the options were re-named or some such thing happened.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    didn't we have a full moon last night??? what's up wit dat, why no change in direction today???

  • lester

    I am glad to know that I am not the only one that has seen this problem.
    I thought Fraudelity was just messin with me.

  • Squidman

    The bus is loading, get on!

  • katzo7

    Just went long.
    Orange juice futures. LOL This is a joke.

  • Osso

    share that….

  • rhae

    I believe it is generally true that strong stocks will continue to get stronger as long as the remain in an uptrending bull channel… and that may be all he is looking at?
    The first thing I do is pull up my own chart and take a look.
    Note: the deadly doji at the channel top… would I buy the break out?, probably not , I would have to see volume…
    Fujisan wrote a nice article a few weeks ago about where to buy with reasonable risk.
    AAPL daily http://screencast.com/t/oHpiu22M

  • rhae

    me me… bearish since Friday

  • katzo7

    You went in at the very top IMO. Nice call.

  • Trader Jose

    You are welcome, innatedc.