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Enjoy The Roller Coaster
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Enjoy The Roller Coaster

by The MoleJune 11, 2013

Seems to me Six Flags is testing out its new virtual NYSE roller coaster this week. You and your family get a free bonus ride when you open a retail account over at participating bucket shops. Hell, it’s a blast at first until you start puking up your lunch. I shouldn’t complain as we’ve played the swings pretty well but this is no time to become complacent or over confident. Obviously technical damage has been done and the bulls are having a tough time to keep the cart from flying off the rails.

So we’re back from whence we came this morning – the 100-hour SMA was challenged but then served as a trampoline for a bounce back toward the brick wall still standing at 1645.75 (i.e. our daily NLBL). From there we just dropped like a rock and who knows what comes next – we are in complete limbo here. Play the swings – by all means – but keep an eye on that 100-hour and the daily NLBL. That diagonal that once used to serve as resistance also seems to act as support now, so we do have a bit of context. I plan to be short below 1621 – currently short term long above 1628.25 and will hold long above the daily NLBL at 1645.75. Hope all that makes sense – if not ask.

Meanwhile over at the woodshed the Dollar is once again circling the toiletbowl. Yesterday we apparently had a last kiss goodbye of the 100-day SMA and it’s falling away fast now. Note that it just breached a weekly NLSL and the 25-week SMA.

Not looking good and if this trend continues I will have to switch you subs over to Monopoly dollars. Heck, my ATM here in Spain is starting to print Dollar jokes on my transaction receipt – in Spanish of course so I don’t get half the jokes. Here’s today’s version (roughly translated):

What is more sexy, an American or a Canadian dollar?

The American of course …it goes down more often.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Schwerepunkt

    Actually, USD.CAD is up +200 pips since the new year and nearly 600-pips since September 2012 low.

  • ridingwaves

    It goes down more often…poor old bucky…

  • tradingmom

    When things are calmer I can resume my picture posting lesson! I successfully found and opened paint 🙂 I copied a chart into paint. I can’t figure out how to make it look like something anyone would want to look at. If I could edit/clean it up, I’m reasonably confident I could post it now.

  • Skynard

    Pussy is running with the markets. About given up on it.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    UUP 22.00!?

    it’s back in ‘that range’ again.

  • saltwaterdog

    Triple ID /CC

  • ridingwaves

    http://postimage.org/
    free image posting so you don’t use direct files from your pc..might be safer that way..also Techsmith has a really nice screen capture tool called Snagit..I use it for work and play…easier than baking cookies..

  • Skynard

    ZL is definately giving the bears the advantadge.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    there are no bears. they died last year in the great fire.

  • bin

    why short below 1621?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    any chance AUD/JPY decides to take a breather?

    http://s22.postimg.org/b0ghqw9wh/temp1.png

  • Skynard

    Shorted /ES at 33, adding here. ZL is saying it is Bull:)

  • amokta

    Advantage Bernanke, Zerohedge – foot fault

  • saltwaterdog

    Fade to Black

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    as long as it’s charts. I boycott any sixpak abs.
    😉

  • tradingmom

    Hey — I have been known to make come pretty complicated cookies. Seriously, anyone remember Raisedbywolves’ gluten free choc chip cookies? You practically had to grow your own spelt and own a grist mill.

  • tradingmom

    In all seriousness — I want something that works like jing, but gives a picture instead of a link. And free. Does that exist? I’m looking at snagit now, but I don’t want to fall in love with it and then be sad when my 30 day free trial runs out.

  • amokta

    Bull-ish? 🙂

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Hey Berg, remember corn?

    keep an eye for a break higher.
    was 40 a crowded trade? I dunno.
    http://s9.postimg.org/erxlrah33/corn.png

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Or BS.

  • Skynard

    Bull honky:)

  • Joe_Jones

    LMAO!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    the whole day is turning into a zigzag pennant.
    or an ugly W.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yes. Keen eye. I noticed that too. CAD has completely missed the equities euphoria.

  • DarthTrader

    tradingmom I’m back had to watch my Gamecocks lose out on their chance to make it to the College World series for a 4th time in a row.

    On left hand side are the tools. the top level has a square made out of dashed line click that then when you move your coursor over the pic it will show a circle with 4 points coming off of it. Take that then Left mouse and hold over the are you want to save you’ll see a dotted line around the area you have selected. If you don’t like your outline just click outside of the line and do it again. Once you have selected the area you want then right mouse click and hit copy. Once copied then right mouse click again choose “select all” then choose “Clear Selection” then Paste and you should have your picture. Save it then you can post it

  • newbfxtrader
  • tradingmom

    Do all these programs require that you save a chart as a file somewhere? My god, my computer would be overrun with saved charts. And how would I find them again to post them? There must be a better way.

  • DarthTrader

    Today is one day nameit . . . the date and what about . . easy to find.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I save my daily chart as temp1. and always save as temp1. which overwrites the old one.
    wa-lah instant management.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    no, but I’d kill for one of his silver charts about now. 😀

  • Maumaj

    I’ll give this a try using JING.
    1-Capture your image using Jing. Edit it to your liking.
    2-Update it to Screencast. A web page will open with your chart.
    3-Right click on the web page chart and copy the link address
    4-Paste that address in the web page address bar. Hit “Enter” on your keyboard.
    5-A new web page will open with the same chart.
    6-right click this new chart and “copy image”
    7-paste image in the Disqus box.

  • Maumaj

    Point 6 should read: right click this new chart and “copy image location”
    7-paste image location in the Disqus box.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Maumaj/folders/Jing/media/a9e44dac-a22f-4f49-9fce-ea10522467f0/00000397.png

  • BobbyLow

    Still holding my original positions although I did switch from Bearish to Bullish on IWM via Rule. If todays price holds, it would be the third day in a row that it has sold off in the AM and rallied back throughout the day. This change also helped me to remain Delta Neutral.

    I’m still Long Oil and love the way Oil was sold off overnight and after the NYSE Open. Then as the trading day developed price was driven slowly but surely back to almost flat. Most of my trades are Swing Trades and today’s price action in Oil is why I try to wait to the end of the trading day to make entry and exit decisions.

  • Maumaj

    Only the address will appear in the message on the EvilSpec web site but once you refresh the page, the thumbnail image will appear.

  • ridingwaves

    Folders are your best friend…saving a file as .jpg is not a space eater…

    I’ve been using Snag it for 12 years, never upgraded and it works great for work and play, very easy tool to use and I use it to save all my purchases, travel confirmations etc so I don’t print out tons of junk…cheaper in long run..

  • BobbyLow

    Even though I don’t read or listen to much financial news anymore, some “news” can’t help but seep through. One thing of note is the number of pundits who seem to be calling for an end to the “30 year bull market in Bonds”.

    The Chart is Butt Ugly on /ZB and TLT and I wonder if today’s price action is just a DCB or something else. I’m holding a few Long July Calls in TLT and would get a kick out a reversal about now. 🙂

  • amokta

    TESLA seems to be losing its dielectric charge today.

    Time to fire up the Van-den-Hindenberg generator

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it’s an upstream swim, IMHO.

    but hey, never say ‘never’.
    [TLT]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p03087437140
    EDIT: I’m a buyer at PnF 106

    -DG

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    *time check – close your books*

  • BobbyLow

    Ain’t that the truth. LOL

    Fortunately I’ve sold premium against the Long side a couple of times so my Long Calls (that are now unencumbered) have a very Low Net Cost Basis and are good for about the next 6 Weeks so we’ll see what happens.

  • amokta

    Gold is like a grain of SAND, slowly slipping through your hand.

    Ok, looks like we stay above cash spx days low

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    told Ya.

    My track record is…..uh (never-mind)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Europe will be crazy overnight and tomorrow. German court. British jobs and who knows what else? Would be huge if the court shoots down the OMT. It would be back to the drawing board for the Eurozone.

  • Daron

    I like this one………… http://getgreenshot.org/ it works pretty well

  • AmazingLarry

    /ZN weekly.

    Volume rising since the peak which tells me sellers in control. What are the odds that huge volume candle came in right before the neckline was taken out?

    But wouldn’t ya know, stick save at the volume hole which is former peak resistance (2009 and 2010 highs) and it’s the 38.2 down from the previous break low trendline hit.

    Everyone and their sister has been calling for that since as long as I can remember. Erase that nonsense from your mind. 😉

  • tradingmom

    I don’t know what my problem is. I’m really not retarded, honest. I got caught up watching the market, and now I can’t even seem to copy a chart to paint. I have 15 min to learn this before the next activity starts. Arrrrgh.

  • tradingmom

    This worked before. I don’t know what I’ve done to make it stop working. I closed all my windows and restarted my computer.

  • newbfxtrader

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-s4zY5Uc74

    You could use printscreen button then paste into paint then crop and save..

  • tradingmom

    Thanks for the link. I watched the video. It was very helpful. Now, I just need to be able to get my original picture to paste again.

  • convictscott

    I use snagit also, its excellent. Skitz for OSX is also very good

  • newbfxtrader

    Hi Scott please chime in on the craziness. Lots of FX pairs going up and down 200+ pips each way making me all nauseous.

  • newbfxtrader

    aud/usd are we there yet? Maybe with todays hammer. After the past few days I am not sure of anything anymore!

  • convictscott

    It’s been good trading conditions 🙂 Sounds like you are trying to pick market direction and time market bottoms – both of which are paths to ruin. AUDUSD is at a major support level and chop should be expected. EURUSD is at a major resistance level – again chop should be expected. Suggest looking at USDJPY for intraday trading it is moving cleanly atm

  • newbfxtrader

    yeah. looking for something that doesnt make a round trip every 24 hrs!

  • newbfxtrader

    usd/jpy? 99 to 95 then back upto 99 then back down to 95.50. How did you trade that one?

  • convictscott

    By following my rules. Seriously, as long as you are stuck in market oracle “I need to predict the future to make money” mode you will not find the markets a nice place to visit.

  • convictscott

    I also use the old (version 9) of snagit, see no reason to upgrade

  • convictscott

    I did not spend one single second screenwatching this trade. I was sparring at the gym when it triggered just before the 1pm chart rollover. At the 1pm rollover 1R was not reached and there were no potential long setups so I checked it from my ipad while I was out and left everything as it was. At 7pm my time when I needed to attend the next 6hr rollover (this is a 6 hr chart) I was in the middle of dinner, I walked into my office and changed the stop, there was no calculation involved because I already had the 1R and 2R levels in my spreadsheet. This took under 30 seconds. Before I went to bed I set my alarm for 1am rollover, and when it triggered I woke up, set my stop to 2R (again no thinking involved) and went back to bed. Woke up at 6 with some mild angst that I had missed out on the last 1.5R available in the trade, but then I reminded myself….

    The least important thing in my trading is the performance of my current trade. This current trade matters LESS than anything else I will do in the markets. What matters is that I have a set of rules and stick to them. That is my edge. Traders with no rules for exits find the market a terrifying and dangerous place as soon as conditions change.

    I’m not telling anyone to adopt my setups, Ivan’s or Moles…. but I say that you MUST develop a method of your own that suits you, and follow it faithfully.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    still pointing down? yep, still pointing down.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p61511725933

    S&P down 16 points. could it turn up tomorrow? you bet. never say never.

    Until then, I’m putting the Bulls on Notice.

    -DG

  • newbfxtrader

    Nicely done!

  • Th3_Acist

    Major breakthrough in the Edge department, thanks to you and Ivan…and mole!! The custom time frames help so much in identifying setups before they happen and managing the trades as well…pretty exciting.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Scott, thank you for sharing this. I am an avid follower of your posts and openly confess I am still a long way from being able to be totally focused in the gym while my trades are running. Working on it though.

  • beentohardknocksU

    The BPSPX chart that our rodent friend is wont to post from time to time suggests that we have been in an incipient downturn since around May 17:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p05861268585&a=270239713

  • Skynard

    By chance did anyone take a long AUD? Hehehe!

  • newbfxtrader

    The place where you have your first stop could have been your long entry? I think because theres an IP and a bullish engulfing candle prior to that?

  • newbfxtrader

    tried some on friday was in profit then got stopped out. Tried again sunday at gap down went into profit and then back in red again!

  • Skynard

    Should see some more wild swings but my target was 93.

  • newbfxtrader

    Good call! You took some longs?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    more like the 23rd. you could dig through the old forums to find out.

  • Skynard

    Long Trigger at 93 and added. That was the 2011 low. For a while thought we would see 88, see what happens.

  • Skynard

    Have to roll this week also, think I’ll wait for gap fill (100 hourly) then sell and wait for a pullback for Sept.

  • newbfxtrader

    I also think it will get there just not right away.

  • Daron

    Something to ponder about Natgas.

  • tradingmom

    Thank you! I’ve saved this and will practice later 🙂

  • tradingmom

    Okay, I think I’m going crazy. I watched the video. I followed the steps. I do not have a “crop” command in the edit drop down menu. I do have a “crop” command in the image menu, but it is grayed out and I can’t click on it. UFB.

  • convictscott

    Yes but that was a prior week. Even though it would have worked in this case I don’t hold over the weekend because my edge is thin enough that it does not compensate for the gap risk.

  • convictscott

    It is very simple.

    1) Take the trade
    2) Don’t look at it! It is not a football team, cheering for it won’t help.
    3) Revisit at the close of the candle on the timeframe you are taking it (if its 60 min check every hour, if its daily check once a day)
    4) Wash, rinse repeat

  • convictscott

    At the 1pm Australia time USDJPY 6Hr rollover, have another setup. Taking both long and/or short

  • convictscott

    Good stuff.

  • convictscott

    Long 96.595 stop 95.90

  • Skynard

    Nice, dollar is over due:)

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Sound advice. I need to work more or 1) and what comes before that. Still spending too much time on 2)

  • Schwerepunkt

    When do the Germans in funny hats speak?

  • tradingmom

    Good morning!

  • tradingmom

    Thank you to everyone who offered their help without making me feel like a total idiot. I’ll try not to return the favor by posting thousands of useless charts.

  • tradingmom

    lets try that again

  • tradingmom

    ugh

  • Daron

    My long triggered on a breach of the 25 hour. I’ll stop at new lows 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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