Now Reading
On The Mend
66

On The Mend

by The MoleDecember 19, 2017

Just in case you care – I’m feeling much better this morning and what a difference one day can make! Yesterday I literally had difficulties walking upright without yodeling out loud. But after a good night’s rest and special care by Mrs. Evil I managed to take the taxi to my chiro today who then took great pleasure in inflicting all sorts of pain whilst putting me into embarrassing positions. I swear he does half of them just for the giggles and I think they should insist on a Myers Briggs personality test before handing out those licenses to blatant sadists.

  

Well, I came back late and although I’m ready for action the market waits for no man (or woman). Let me share what I scraped together over the past half our or so. Equities continue in scorched earth no prisoners ramp mode but if you look closely things are starting to slow down which is causing that 25-hour Bollinger to start getting pinched. Which tells me that a big move is coming but the direction is yet unclear.

The NQ however has already picked one (down) and I currently consider it the canary in the coalmine for what happens next on the S&P futures. It’s a bit too early to get involved however, so let’s see what happens over the first few hours of the session.

What’s making me a bit suspicious is the obvious bot dominated tape I also belabored yesterday regarding the Zero’s participation signal. The UVOL shows us a very smooth line which suggests that the bots were simply bouncing the ball back and forth.

My Take

I say let’s remain vigilant and wait for the right entry opportunity. The last time this happened I expected continuation higher and that’s what we got, AFTER a quick shake out to the downside – much to our chagrin. We will never be able to out guess the market but clearly the odds for success are much better after a dip followed by an entry pattern.

Otherwise I don’t see much of interest on the futures, equities, or bonds side right now, so let’s turn our attention to FX. The EUR/USD has reverted back the apparent median of its current sideways range. Honestly this could go either way but obviously market sentiment seems to support the EUR for some strange reason.

I know there is an entry to be had here but I’d be damned taking one here. As long as these gyrations continue we are better off getting exposed near the outer ranges of that sideways zone. For example a push higher toward the upper BB followed by a retest would a long opportunity. Why not play the short side in that case? Because the range has already compressed so much and there’s not much meat left on that bone.

The USD/JPY however seems like a long opportunity IF (and only if) we see a retest of the still falling 100-hour SMA. If it was trending higher already I would risk a long here but until that happens I must remain cautious and make sure I have the odds on my side.

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Agree, It looks like a good setup and I’m hanging short.

  • Julie

    Glad you are feeling better Chief. Merry Christmas Mole
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    anyone see all the energy – MLP upgrades today……..hmmmm

  • ridingwaves

    also the senate and house voting on the tax bill today……might be a good spot for short trade…if vote fails, down move for sure…if it passes, the up move might not have a lot of juice left…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Boy it’s slowing down here!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie

    RW Thinking the same thing Could be sell the news
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    most likely going to happen….and then a rip when Trump signs it……have to put on a good show for the sheeple

  • Mark Shinnick

    All a fucking charade and afront. Just pathetic. But not for Trumps 10:1 ratio and other hardcore signs, I’d say no hope at all exists with mere image making as this bill seem to be.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Very credible camel nose keeps inching more into the tent. What a bloodbath is at stake…alas we can’t determine the future.

  • BobbyLow

    What is the 10:1 Ratio?

  • ridingwaves

    10 x Bullish ETF, symbol is RUMP

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its imprecise and a bit cloudy but various news outlets reporting Trump cancelling from 6 to 10 regulations for each new one created.

  • BobbyLow

    Time will tell how much less regulation will help.

    I do agree with you on the charade of this tax bill. There are going to be a lot of large political donors happy when this thing passes. Then after the Deficit blows up even worse than it already is, these same Mother Fckers who wrote this bill are going to be screaming that we need to cut this deficit by cutting Medicare and Social Security. Middle class tax cut my ass.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    watch what they do.. usually the same bag of tricks.

    try to not to be too cynical.
    😉
    https://www.alternatememories.com/images/intro/movies/wizard-oz-man-curtain_300x300.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    They deserve to lose their mandate to govern; these MF’s are risking anarchy and should be all shot for treason in that event.

  • BobbyLow

    You just made my day Mark! I think we might be on opposite sides of the political spectrum and that’s fine.. However with both of us seeing the same things and in total agreement on this issue gives me hope. 🙂

  • Julie

    BL The Bible the first shall be last and the last shall be first. Several Sunday’s ago the topic of our pastor’s sermon
    JULIE

  • Julie

    BLand Mark They will go down
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    The aim of an argument or discussion should not be victory, but progress.
    – Joseph Joubert

  • BobbyLow

    Julie, well I guess most of Congress missed your pastors sermon. 🙂

    The pigs will be stuffing themselves soon. I can hear them already oinking in excitement. . .

  • BobbyLow

    I hope you’re right.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    I knew you would answer GG ! Lol !
    JULIE

  • Julie

    BL It is global ….. Not only in the U.S. Excellent chance we will see it and when it occurs ….. Unreal the insurrection … Cannot be stopped
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    The Swamp by its nature will want to destroy everything to save itself. It exists only to serve itself by endenturing the rest of America. The American Dream for most is unquestionably dead Jim.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you might want to get out of Bozeman. Yellowstone volcano, fire & brimstone.
    😉

    http://www.reverendfun.com/images/toons/1999/03/19990308_full_en.gif

  • Julie

    BL TPTB (the powers that be) are attempting racial conflict for distraction. It is not racial but economic i.e. across all ethnic lines. Just watch as all people of all ethnicities join hands and fight back. It will happen
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    oh no, swamps are actually good.

    http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2016/10/how_to_drain_a_swamp.html

    Swamps play a hugely important role in the ecosystem. They help prevent erosion, they’re able to hold excess water to help prevent flooding, they help filter out pollution, they provide fish nurseries, and they provide habitats for more than one-third of all endangered species. It wasn’t until partway through the 20th century that ecologists began to understand these benefits.

  • Julie

    44 million Americans on food stamps. All races and creeds. Watch the unity. It will happen
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Because you might be correct, one of the only good things about being old is that I “might” not be around when the “shit hits the fan”. However my children and grand children will and I hope it doesn’t happen for their sake. In the mean time, I am powerless to do anything about it and that frustrates me the most.

    This is a depressing topic but a real one.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Healthy ones, anyway… this one’s actually devolved into something more like the diversity of toxic sludge.

  • BobbyLow

    This has been around for awhile Julie. It began in earnest with the “3 G’s” (God, Guns and Gays) a couple of decades ago. I think these Red Meat issues were thrown out for the masses to fight about while TPTB picked our pockets. Now they’ve added protecting us from terrorism to the mix to help keep us even more off balance.

  • Julie

    BL What is important is that you know what is occurring and to educate the younger generation. They will carry the torch for a better world. It is depressing but as you state a real one. When it begins IMO sooner than later the Swamp will be drained quickly. You and I can only teach our children to be honest and upright citizens which the wonderful people on this blog are and I know doing the same BL You and your loved ones Merry Christmas
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Julie. You’ve become a wonderful addition to this blog and I wish you and your loved ones a Merry Christmas as well.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Right on…all it will take is one nice EMP.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    look, I hate to say this but the young generation has no idea on how bad the corpocracy is right now. They have been living in shangri la…The Fed, govt. and treasury swept in at 2009 and changed the structure of America to further favor the corporations. Even handed them money off the backs of taxpayers to survive their insane decision making process. I might have been close to the youngest protester in 2008 in front of the fed building trying to end the fed. A banker cartel that just loved the Potter character in “its a wonderful life”.. and made it happen….

    It is a wonderful for them….risk can be thrown around like sand in child’s hand.

    Now kids protest to keep in illegal aliens so taxpayers like me can help their family survive. While we survive barely…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    dam it!
    I just plugged my SOX into my QQQ’s chart.

    coulda woulda shoulda, went for the reverse long.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SOX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34290759288

  • BobbyLow

    It’s decision time on my long swing position in Gold via 3X UGLD. The Senate has decided to vote on the Tax Bill tonight instead of today. I don’t have a clue about how Gold might react (or if it’s going to react at all) to passage or if for whatever reason it fails in the Senate. So rather than risk a large gap going against me in the AM, I’ll close out my position and take my profit before the COB today.

    Of course this probably means that Gold will rally hard tomorrow but everytime I’ve gambled by holding a position overnight while a major legislation’s conclusion is imminate, I’ve gotten my ass kicked. So I’ll be out by 3:55 PM today.

    BTW just an FYI, in the past, I used MOC orders until one day I tried to cancel it a few minutes before the close and couldn’t because once a MOC order is locked in with TOS it can’t be canceled after 3:45 PM. That was an unwelcome surprise. 🙂

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, 10y bund, and HY ; the complex is speaking…and somebody should be paying attention.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    man’s got to follow his rules.

    my ratio has been neutral for a couple months. you can always jump back on the train.
    don’t forget, gold is tied to the Yuan. avoid the volatility.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90489199506

    conversation – last week:
    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/evilspeculator/you_know_nothing_about_bitcoin_jon_snow/#comment-3658769931

  • Mark Shinnick

    Dreams unobtainable; Its precisely that alienated generation’s belief for the time being in having nothing to lose.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep.

    I’ll probably have withdrawal symptoms but I’m going to stay out of the markets from now until after Jan 1st. My limited stable usually gets pretty choppy during the last few days of the year so I’ll take this time to peace out. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I was going to recommend 16 hour candles, but peace out sounds better.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I just don’t see the kumbaya.What I see is 44 million hungry Americans, joined by untold millions doing what jungle law says to do to survive. After the natural selection process guess we will see then.

  • ridingwaves

    bitcoin boys are getting whacked….

  • Julie

    RW Let’s BTFD ! Good Grief ! LOL ! RW Have A Merry Christmas !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    Same to you and your family Julie…..at some point bitcoin buyers are going to find out the hard way that MM’s and PE don’t buy stuff at retail prices….

  • ridingwaves

    BABA is interesting short candidate, currently below the 100sma,173.55, a touch and sell off could lead to breaching 169 and race to 159, stretch to 151.. trend is now bearish.. I have a bid S at 173.40 stop at 174.17

  • ridingwaves

    on the other hand, it did sell off on first touch of the 100 yesterday and it might be ready to test the 169 support..

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Well, off course after Nasdaq passed 7000 and NDX passed 6500 on the same day there had to be some kneejerk reaction.

    During the day today the NDX painted a beautiful inverse head and shoulders well rounded and focused, quite impressive after the run it has had.

    OK, around 2-3 pm there seems to have been some political thing, or vote, or whatever, that messed up the technical Picture 🙂

    Anyway, this thing is about to rip upwards. Dont expect any meaningful reaction until at least NDX passes 7000.

    This year was the record of closing highs since 1995. I hope you all understand the meaning of that. From 95 to 00 you had 4 years of rampant bubble. I pray that will happen again, I have profited handsomely so far on the ongoing bullmarket, a true bubble would make me very Rich.

    By the way, good Luck on Your ongoing intraday shorts ……..

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b354e8ed5b3d1e2bae0952be41963cd7ef193a7c76f0d2d0623da9e024e56699.png

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Well, maybe this site is about to die.

    Unless you Write that you have identified the final blow off top and are shorting … Nobody cares about Your opinion.

    This site may be becoming like this:
    http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
    Poor Dan Eric is trying his best, but his true followers are just ignoring him, and the comment section is full of anything than what he writes about.

    You asked some time ago if you should post more seldom Sir Mole, and I have to think that will be the way for the future.

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    I have to say that Dan eric is another fool who have “identified the top” though.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I don’t know, Øyvind. People here seem to be a diverse and experienced lot, I’d say not simply one-dimensional. Even short sellers who aren’t fixated into a position can get by alright. I’d say few around here would actually be ringing the Bell, but what happens a lot are short term bear swings many specialize in riding for whatever they are worth. Also, important things tend to not get missed without some mention, again I don’t see anything being touted as the killer to the long term buy and hold model. Mole really never impressed me as having bias one way or the other.

  • ridingwaves

    i didn’t count one blow off top comment in the string? Are you rehashing old thread or something?

    We know your position, L QQQ’s or whatever..So what is the difference of you playing the Nasdaq etf whatever it may be vs. the person whom plays trends, commodities, sector rotations, Forex, shorts, options etc.

    there are 10k+ trades out there..
    comparing 95 to 00 with today and 2018 is foolish. Here are some good tips by Mole to help you out https://evilspeculator.com/category/education/

    Congrats on your winnings…How did you run into Daneric elliot waves site? and why compare ES to that?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Don’t feed the trolls, guys.

  • ridingwaves

    folks, keep in eye on NETE
    another blockchain business unit launch announcement and run up….up $14 before the bell, 270%
    Hedgy, PE and MM’s might be playing these announcements more than bitcoin….

    2.5 million float….I’m going to jump in and see if they push it higher, if they whack it first

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Darkthirty

    Care to elaborate?