Paene Alea Iacta Est

No, it’s not pig latin – it’s the real thing with a creative twist courtesy of your resident market megalomaniac. Most likely I screwed up the grammar – is there anyone with higher education among you guys? So, this is what we know: We are crossed an important support line – just barely – but then snapped back. It’s like like Caesar crossing the Rubicon but heading right back because he forgot to turn the gas off in his tent. Judging by the Zero Lite momentum completely fizzled after the initial stab down which we also know stopped out a lot of unhappy dip buyers.

What really put a smile on my face today however was the VIX. I posted this chart yesterday for the subs – including that resistance line of course. And where did we touch and turn? Just where I thought things would get really interesting. Are the bulls out of the woods as we are trading back above SPX 1340? Not my a long shot – as one of my intrepid rats mused today – this tape is looking like crap and that little bounce better catch a bid by the close. If you are sub and read my weekend post then you know the implications of failure here – and it’s not pretty.

This chart I posted last Friday – it’s our volume profile map on the spoos. That volume hole I pointed out thus far has been holding and as you can see there is some participation past 1325. The bulls better get positioned above that.

And here’s basically what all the futz is about – that 100-day SMA shows a similar support cluster as my SPX P&F chart (also posted over the weekend – if you’re not a sub, you’re missing out!).

Crude is looking UGLY – not that I mind as European gas prices are not for the faint hearted. Technically I cannot propose a setup here yet and I don’t suggest you try anything brave. Commodities do not move like stocks, people – easy to get shot to hell in a hand basket if you try to be brave and cannot afford the pain.

Cotton way overshot its target – I didn’t point out our original inside day entry, which was near (drum rolls…) 89! Quite a profitable little trade if you sat through all of it – I was out at 84.5 – the rules are the rules. But the fun ain’t over yet – there’s a new setup and since I’m in a good mood I decided to make today’s post a free-for-all:

That’s right – inside day. But don’t even think about taking the short side if it triggers. I’m only interested in an old fashioned polish polka short squeeze here. So if 79.9 gets triggered then Bob’s your uncle.

Gold – shot to hell as well – still sucks to be a gold bug. I am not eager to go panning here. Just yet that is – let’s see a floor pattern first.

ZB (30-year treasury futures) – this time I did point out our entry – another satisfied customer over here. And yes, if you haven’t yet – convert your position into the currency of your choice.

Old bucky has me all hot and bothered – could it be we finally make it to the 81 mark? If you’re a sub then you know that this is an important long term inflection point. Yes, we probably reverse there for a while – but that’s part of the journey. Either way – as I live in Europe now and getting paid in Dollars this paints a big smile on my face.

USD/CAD – continues to be a nice short opportunity at 1.005. I’m going to keep scalping this beast until it hits my stop and I can flip it into a long with a target near 1.02. Until that happens I’m perfectly happy to steal pennies from the hapless souls on the other side of my trades 😉

Cheers,