Productive Tape

Equities are actually looking productive for a change, as we have major indices in sync retesting medium and long term support. That’s a respectable long opportunity although I am already inversely exposed and must let that one resolve first before embarking on any new campaigns. Which is an iron rule I very rarely violate and only if I see very compelling reasons to do so. When in doubt stick with the script, especially in whipsaw tape. Not because you will always bank more coin but you will lose a lot less by not getting lured into abrasive campaigns which push your buttons and further lead to excuses to re-establish bad trading habits. System purity almost always trumps short term benefits, and the worst thing that can happen to you long term is to profit by making bad decisions short term. Yes, we all have been there, because we are all human.

The E-Mini futures offer us pretty solid context here – on the downside that is, which runs inverse to my current open position – oh joy. Quite an accumulation of support there – we’ve got the 25-day BB plus a Net-Line Sell Level right below us on the daily. Then we’ve got a whole stack of NLSLs on the weekly plus let’s not forget the 100-week SMA which also sits near 2023. Ergo I don’t see how we are going to breach that given the current lack of bearish mojo. Not impossible – just not very probable.

Since I took out only a small position in equities I decided on Friday afternoon to dare holding it through the weekend. I’m around break/even right now and could just close it out here. But I decided to hold it into the open at the off chance of a little surprise lower.

When gauging downside potential in equities it may however activity in the NQ futures that we should be tracking. Clearly it is the weaker symbol plus it is enjoying  a little less context than the spoos. In particular the daily configuration on the NQ is looking like it may just drop from here – but if it is to happen it needs to start moving today.

However what has me a lot more excited right now however are precious metals and fortunately we were able to reserve a seat on the bus on both gold and silver last Friday. That daily panel is just a beauty to behold – I was secretly hoping for a retest of the horizontal trendline and didn’t hesitate jumping back in long while the getting was good.

Here’s where we got in last Friday – almost a perfect entry I am proud to say. Doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods just yet of course. The trail has not kicked in yet and we’re still fully exposed.

Silver did its best shaking out pretty much everyone but we somehow managed to climb on board last Friday. I see two things happen here and that soon: Either it drops back to the 16 mark or it’ll just take off here and completely burn the shorts. I’m fine with either scenario actually as I would very very much appreciate getting a long opportunity near the 100-week SMA. Those LKGB trades usually have good odds – especially on LT panels.

Another perfect entry I should point out – although most likely due to sheer luck and not exceptional skill. Entries are actually a lot less important than most traders think – it’s the exits that count!

Shameless Plug

By the way if you missed out on both of these juicy campaigns then you’re most likely not a sub, which is an inadmissible deficiency we can easily remedy 

We also had quite a bit of fun with soybean oil last week and it seems we are well positioned for an encore this week. That context is almost textbook and the weekly panel is a good example of what I mean by a last kiss goodbye (LKGB) entry.

Very nice entry here  as well last Friday – we almost clocked the lows. I told you guys – Friday the 13th is always my lucky day!

Alright I’m pretty comfortably positioned today and would like to assess the theme for the week prior to accumulating any more exposure. On the forex side however I saw one setup that I couldn’t resist taking on…

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