Reality…

UPDATE 10:00am EST:

Message to all perma-bulls: Reality – don’t you hate it when it keeps catching up with you?

Those retail numbers were simply horrid – as you should have expected if your IQ ranges above room temperature. Who in their right mind thought those would be below estimates? Busted us through some congestion on the RL front – nice. Anyway, while I’m writing this the Yen is testing the 1.1250 R1 pivot – if that one breaks Kansas is going bye bye. Keep your eyes on it.

In other news – the TNX keeps dropping back towards 2.2. LOVING IT! Will load up on TLT once we hit 820 on the SPX. Mr. VIX is back at base camp around 4,810 feet – I’m sure your March/June puts are enjoying the alpine air. Oh, before I forget it – CCJ is finally producing – was about time this one put out. Three dates usually is my limit 😉

I’m kicking myself for being so tepid around that 820 RL yesterday despite the Zero pointing downward. Yeah, we rallied up after the signal but that’s the cost of doing business. I think the Zero/RL correlation needs further thought as the Zero indicator is more long term IMO. Thoughts on the matter would be appreciated. Maybe just trading the Zero pure is the way to go (no offense to 2sweeties of course – we love those RLs – just not sure how both systems combine).

Go out there and find yourself some long candidates – you might also start thinking about your hedging strategy for when we approach 820ish.

UPDATE 10:41am EST: The trend is down for today: 18:1 declining issues right now. Don’t be a hero and step in front of a falling sword. Let ‘er ride….

UPDATE 12:08pm EST: I thought I’d share this little observation with you rats:

If the Yen starts pushing to the upside again I expect more downside in equities.

UPDATE 1:12pm EST: Hope you guys are holding up during the mind numbing whipsaw. This seems to become a daily routine at this point. Did I mention that I hate expiration weeks?

I’m going to start looking for oversold candidates for when we hit an interim low in a day or two. Would appreciate if you rats chime in.

UPDATE 2:00pm EST: This whipsaw is making my brain hurt. But check out this nice short term triangle on the NQ futures:

Which way will she break? Downward seems to be the trend, but I would get more excited around 1162.

UPDATE 2:22pm EST: In case you wonder where those long white spikes are coming from. A birdy just told me that the pits got an order for 7000 ES contracts around 2:10pm. There’s a heavy buyer lurking. My guess would be it’s the primary dealers working in concert with the Feds. Hey, how did this wrinkle get into my tinfoil hat?

UPDATE 3:13pm EST: Never underestimate the MM’s skills to drive the market up and down during expiration week. I’m accepting bets starting now of where we’ll close today.

UPDATE 3:47pm EST: Just an observation:

BTW, I just flipped FDX to puts and grabbed some Feb TGT puts.

UPDATE Closing Bell: Well, today was a fun day…. NOT! Can’t complain though – ended up 8% in my account – I call that a peachy day. I’m holding those short positions in the Zero account. As you can imagine getting stopped out by a temporary exit signal really ticked me off and took out a lot of profits. I jumped back in though as the Zero signal keeps pointing down.

No forecast tonight as it’s Wednesday – that’s our lazy day. See you tomorrow, ladies and gentle-leeches.