Same Old Script?

BaldEagle just voiced the nagging thought in my head. Same old script: first drop the tape and then grind it back up throughout the day. I’m only back a few days from my vacation but already feel completely exhausted. This tease of a market has been bouncing around within the same gyration zone for weeks now – it’s time we get a decisive move – whichever way, I don’t even care anymore.

This tape reminds me of a football game – the bears have to fight for every inch and they better not fumble this time around otherwise the bulltards will be quick to pick up the ball and score another touchdown.

The short term wave count is completely in tatters right now – this is not triangle and those gyrations are tough to fit into a pattern I would feel comfortable talking about. So, at this point the best I can offer is this: We either break down or we finally rally up – until then we’re officially in confused bulltard limbo.

For the record however – I recall bitching at Berk just a year ago just before we dropped into wave 3 of (3) of {1} – aaah, the good old days.  Just like now we were stuck in a sideways pattern for weeks and I kept saying that this was not looking like the beginning of a third wave down – everyone’s nerves were getting frayed. And then suddenly we plunged and never looked back except for one quick reload opportunity on the infamous 9/19 when Cox (sucker) implemented a temporary ban on short selling. No doubt they will play similar games this time around, so be mentally prepared.

The good news? Without much fanfare the OEX breached an important trendline this morning. Undoubtedly there will be a retest but this is quite significant. BTW, the NDX also breached but not by as much, so the jury is out whether or not this is for real.

The old buck seems to be hanging on so far – this is starting to look like a slow grind upward, which I actually prefer instead of a quick head fake which can be quickly sold down. It’s seems to be fighting its way upward, despite only 3% Dollar bulls according to Investors Intelligence.

11:07am EDT: Something big seems to be brewing in the corporate bond universe. I just checked out LQD (the chart I posted two days ago) and almost fell out of my chair:

This is the longest down candle in a long time plus we just breached an important trendline that has been respected for seven months now. Will it hold? I can’t wait for today’s close.

Not getting excited yet but call it cautiously optimistic.

11:48am EDT: TNX has been pointing in the right direction for weeks now and continues its stair step descend:

So far so good – I like where this is going. Next stop the 3% mark?