Say Goodbye To Paradise

I regret to inform you all that I have returned to Valencia which of course means that I am back to tormenting you all with my daily market musings. We actually didn’t venture very far from home this time as the tiny backwater of El Campello is located near Alicante on what is known as the Costa Blanca of Spain. The location itself is pretty nondescript but as you can see the ocean views from the house we had rented were absolutely stunning.

Here’s a panorama shot I took two days ago just with my iPhone – I’m particularly proud of that one.

The sun peeked above the horizon  few minutes later (as shown in the featured image), which is a rare sight for me as I’m not exactly an early riser due to my work schedule. And yes here in the East of Spain, unlike in California where I used to live, the sun rises from the ocean and sets over land in the evening.

I probably lost a good percentage of my eyesight shooting directly into the sun but I just couldn’t pass this one up. It had rained quite a bit in the previous days (yes, we are always this lucky on vacation) and the view the morning after was exceptionally clear with absolutely no haze toward the horizon.

Here’s another snapshot taken yesterday showing the cliff right next to our house.

What I and especially my wife enjoyed the most was the silence. The houses near us were all empty which meant that all we got to listen to during the day was the sound of the waves crashing against the shoreline. Now that we’re back in the tourist center of Valencia it’ll take us a few days to get reacclimatized to all the hustle and bustle around us.

Alright enough with reminiscing about vacations, now it’s back to work you slackers! I just took out a long position on the E-Mini – here’s why: I was gone for nearly two weeks and in the interim the E-Mini has gone absolutely nowhere. The current formation is coiled up the max with an increasing series of long wick spike lows. Which puts the odds in favor of the bulls but just barely to be honest. The bears still have an opportunity to inflict major damage and being biased toward the upside would be a fatal mistake.

My approach at this point is to stick with the current bias (up) but remain nimble enough to jump on a different bus should the bulls fumble this one and hand the ball back to the bulls. So that means I am long here with a stop < the last spike low. If stopped out I will wait for a retest and then go short, assuming of course the Zero play along (you are a sub I hope otherwise point your browser here).

Confirmation of the medium term bullish scenario will occur at > 2800 – quite a long way to go! On the other hand confirmation of the medium term bearish scenario happens < 2650. Which means the onus now is on the bulls to get out of this rut and drive prices across midfield.

Bitcoin snapped back rather violently after retesting the 7400 mark. Scott actually managed to buy near the lows and I didn’t see this one until it had pushed to 8200. Since then it’s been squeezing the shorts in a delectable series of higher highs and higher lows.

So this is looking pretty good IMO and if it manages to drop lower for a retest of the 25-day SMA then I’d be tempted to jump into the fray as well. One thing I hate about vacations is missing prime entry opportunities but sacrifices have to be made. Either that or shopping for a good divorce lawyer 😉

My long campaign in ZB over a week ago exited a few days later with a bit under 1R in profits. Not much to write home about but it paid for our trip and then some. But it’s now again getting interesting in ZB as price has reverted back to our old entry zone. The daily panel suggests it’s now in a make or break formation – drop much lower and it’ll turn back to the dark side – head higher and a massive short squeeze could ensue.

Cable is about to rip the Euro’s head off. I for one can’t wait. There may be another retest lower which I plan on taking advantage of.

And here’s my arch nemesis. No matter how many Euros I keep spending this damn chart just doesn’t budge. I need a more expensive hobby it seems which means I’ll have to raise subscription fees (jk).

Seriously though – look at all those long wicks on the weekly panel. It’s looking bearish but – and that’s a big but – prices have managed to cling to the current range. So the door is open here but the damn bears will have to step through it.

Otherwise the exact opposite happens and with a vengeance. And that means we could easily find ourselves near the 1.3 mark or higher. At which point I’ll be forced to significantly cut down on my nudie bar budget and that would throw the GDP of Spain into a tail spin. Not a pretty picture.

Not sure if many of you remember my crude campaign which was a long term in the making. I’m still holding this one and it’s increasingly looking as if it’s finally ready to grab the shorts by the balls and give ’em a good squeeze. Sitting pretty here and I just moved my stop to about 2R.

With a bit of luck this one pays for our next vacation – next time we’re heading to a warmer spot however. I’m considering to visit Scott in Bangkok in a few months and we plan to record a few technical Q&A videos together.