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Short Sweep Monday!
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Short Sweep Monday!

by The MoleNovember 2, 2009

Good morning my intrepid stainless steel rats – yes, it’s short sweep Monday and all gloves are off. Let’s get right to the count – I’ll post my basic counts and then add a few charts in the next 30 minutes:

As predicted on Friday we were overdue for a little pop higher. To anyone show sent me angry comments, emails, and SMS – I love you guys but you are a bunch of morons! When I said ‘oversold’ I of course meant ‘short term oversold’ – which is being relieved as we speak.

But it’s still possible that we are extending a third wave downward, which would mean that we’d turn soon and then make new lows. But I’m afraid it won’t be that easy today – good chance we meander around here for the next few hours while the bears are rubbing their asses, and then pop into 1066 either by the bell or by tomorrow. And no – I did not hedge myself on Friday or this morning – these turns will come quickly and when you least expect it. It’s easy to get caught up in the mess of trying to hedge these moves – sometimes they work and sometimes you get burned. This time around I’ll just let things unfold while I stay stubbornly short.

I’ve posted this chart in the past – it’s the NYSE Advancing/Declining Volume. That drop on Friday was a great indicator to expect a bounce up. Yes, yes – someone over at the evil lair is paying attention 😉

The 10-day MA of the CBOE put/call ratio did not reach the extreme I was waiting for but we were definitely in the danger zone here.

Mr. VIX was extended out of it’s 2.0 BB on Friday – another fact I had mentioned during the session. I expected a pop back inside as part of a developing equities buy signal. Be aware that – if we get it – it should be very short lived as the trend appears to be down. I’m looking at the Zero Lite right now and the signal is simply pitiful in comparison with that strong pop higher. This is nothing but a relief rally – and as strange as it sounds – it’s actually healthy and needed in order to continue the path down.

Some of you are complaining that Berk and I are not posting during the weekends anymore. Quite frankly, I personally have been busting my ass every single weekend in the past year, sometimes spending five hours plus on one post. But the comment count has been steadily diminishing, especially on Sundays. Berk posted 20+ charts for two weekends in a row and I didn’t see much in terms of constructive input – not surprised he didn’t bother this weekend – can’t blame the Berk-Meister. As I always said – blogging is a 2-way street for me (don’t care what anyone else says). If you are not posting it probably means you’re not working – and Sunday is an extremely important day for any professional or fledgling trader – the results you get trading are directly related to the amount of work you put in. And if you want to bank coin on Monday you better show up on Sunday and spend some time preparing.

10:52am EDT: In a direct correlation with equities the Dollar seems to either extend or is now in the c wave of a zigzag correction:

Thus we have two high probability paths – the extending third is depicted in orange and the a-b-c correction in blue. FYI – my fibs almost perfectly line up with 2sweeties’ DXY RLs:

There you have it – the highest ‘frequency’ RLs are the two fibs I marked on my chart. This also supports the currently medium/long term trend in equities, which should continue down.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • gregn

    We touched 50% retrace of fall from Thursday's highs.

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    I've decided to stop harrassing various blogs and start posting comments on my own site. This is a little bit tongue and cheek but I call my blog “Ethical Cheating”. I can't disclose my methods but you can benefit from the information, if you so choose.

    http://ethicalcheating.blogspot.com/

  • onorio

    USD is getting squeezed, if we take thursday low watch out bellow…

  • Hildenbrandt

    Tracking short at the 50 dma, 52.7 spx

  • nakedoptions

    EURO good spot for at least a pull back.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/fq3QZBMvRCDG

  • clutchshorter

    Bears, don't trade this tape!!! Wait until this afternoon or tomorrow morning. Wait it out….

  • Tronacate

    RIMM is being the well behaving POS it is……

  • onorio

    stay away from the front of the train…

  • gregn

    I'll add you to my favorites, thanks.

  • Hildenbrandt

    Downgraded!

  • Hildenbrandt

    Agree. I'd like to see stops run on /es before getting long!

  • Tronacate

    IYR looks like it has completed a nice little ABC up so let's see what happens this pm

  • CorporalCarrot

    Isn't human psychology a wonderful thing. On Friday there were so many people on bearish blogs that were praying for higher prices so they could short at better levels, now that we get there everyones too afraid to move!!

    I added some more at 9848. It might be premature, but I'm holding now and just picking opportunities to add to my short position.

    I called today wrong, and defer to Bob's insightful predictions on ISM, but I'm not trying to pick every swing so its not too much of an issue.

  • newbear

    Interesting site, I've book marked you as well.

    All the best.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if what you have in your header is anything to go for then your target for s&p should be close to 980… either that or i'm missing something

  • fuw

    What train? I think that euro/usd looks range bound right now (1.47-1.485), and we are now close to the upper limit. Easy to trade that, with a clear stop loss point.

  • onorio

    we`re in a 3rd wave up with a possible target arround 1.4890

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hi mole, thanks once again, always love your scenarios and your style.

    Today it feels stronger than thursday… let's see hou this plays out (I had it as a trend day to 1050 but you are probably right on an higher value)

  • molecool

    EXACTLY!! 1+

  • molecool

    EXACTLY!! 1+

  • amokta

    time to get dow 10,000 hat out, i think?? time to buy more puts?
    does anyone know where i can get uptodate prices on options – CBOE site is not uptodat

  • bobthehorse

    I'm afraid I've put my bear hat in the box for a little while. The internals of the ISM report are too strong and suggest companies are hiring and restocking inventories again. That could mean HUGE GDP prints for Q4 and 1Q10. My guess is that will set us up for another catastrophic decline but it's unlikely equity markets will collapse while earnings upgrades accelerate.

  • gregn

    Hahah nice observation.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Added more at 9856.

  • molecool

    Everyone is starting their own blog now – illusions of grandeur galore. Result: the rats scatter and become disorganized.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Never too afraid to move. The new low on Friday told me with confidence that we are back to shorting any rally. I am usually a bit early on the start, but that is what I am doing…

    Skål!

  • molecool

    See how feelings can deceive you? Did you look at the Zero Lite? Thursday's signal was a lot stronger than today's.

  • gregn

    Mole, you should start a blog sometime instead of just leeching here.

  • gregn

    Held my puts, we are back under key level. What month puts did you get back at 45?

  • Tronacate

    Yeah …..I don't like it……..better to keep the knowledge centrally located….

  • Hildenbrandt

    Dilution of the delusional.

  • newbear

    But there is only one true fearless leader!

  • gregn

    It's amazing the amount of people that left here to goto Anna's blog.

  • john_matrix

    I was very bearish on friday but still closed all my short postions and will reload as we move through the week, there always strong recations, but that doesnt change the direction

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    APR…

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes, she has a good thing going… The only thing is that this market is not good for spread traders. If you are every going to go directional, now is the time. I know she is a good trader, so I hope she can pull it out.

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    PALM has done a sweet rollover today……I'm looking for new LOD here after lunch

  • CorporalCarrot

    We are still now below the “man with a ruler” trendlines from the March lows so until we break back up above them, I think these rallies are to be sold into.

    Remember, we had the largest single down day since April on Friday, possibly todays retracement was entirely predictable but I still think its a blessing from God.

  • Tronacate

    FWLT might be a good time to grab some putz right here……..I'm still in them

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Just more people to be taking the wrong side of our trades. You really gonna complain about that…

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I sold mine a few minutes ago… Looking for a little bit larger bounce before I reload…

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    It does look good, but I had front months, and need to see closer to 30 for me to get back in…

    Skål!

  • gregn

    Berk, what stocks are on your watch list. I am watching BIDU for potential H&S breakdown, CAT for double top and CNX for potential H&S.

  • Cypherd

    Anyone been keeping an eye on ISRG since their earnings report? I like the action, it dropped on earnings, and filled the gap over the next few sessions and as of this morning was approaching the earnings reaction lows. I think once it breaks that $241.27 level, it will really start to drop hard and fast.

  • Tronacate

    True

  • molecool

    RELOAD PAGE!!!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Watching BK, RIMM, BGC, ATI, JRCC, X, FLR, STJ, FPL, EXC, SCHN, LVS, BG, FWLT, AZO, FSLR, AAP, AMAG, BCR, CEPH, CHL, DNB, DRI, FAST, GENZ, GPRO, HES, ILMN, LMT, LSTR, MOS, NAV, NUVA, and TDW. To name a few…

    Skål!

  • molecool

    Let's see who's banking more coin by next summer 😉

  • Hildenbrandt

    Nice test of the 50 and dump. /zn still popping wood consistently.

  • centerline

    Berk – FWIW, taking a quick swing at AA Nov 12 puts to paint that bear flag a little prettier today. Watching that FPL. No position yet on that. Hard to bring myself to play it after having sent nasty-grams to the governor that if FPL gets the 30% rate hike I am leaving Florida!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Forgot GNK too…

    Skål!

  • CorporalCarrot

    The Dow has had support at 9820 for some time now, pausing there briefly on the way up and touching it 4 times as support. This was an area of significant congestion between 20th to end Sept, I think if it breaks decisively below it, theres a chance we could end today in the red.

  • Hildenbrandt

    Did you get a chance to go through that report yet? That's oil count is very interesting…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    LVS looking good today for us bears

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Sure is doing it's best. Nice to see I am back profitable in the front months….

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I can still see a move up towards 13… Not a big trader of $INDU stocks either. They just move too damn slow.

    SKål!

  • gregn

    Nice list.

  • fuw

    …or we're not. We'll see how it plays out. Until proven otherwise I'm sticking to my range.

  • gregn

    I am going to buy some calls on your account.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yeah, not so much watching ICE, CME, MDR, MTN, DTG, DRI, or NIHD cause I already got them…

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    NIHD….me too

  • gregn

    I was looking at ICE last week, did you grab it last Thursday/Friday?

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    AA? HUUUUGE moves last week, I'm long on that rollercoaster right now…

  • Cole

    Anna's a great trader, but things are more focused here since she left. I can do without the stream of conscious comment stream.

  • gregn

    Aye.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I've been in ICE for a bit, but I grabbed CME puts last Thursday.

    Skål!

  • ultra

    FSLR *may* be in the process of painting inverse H&S. Fibs look quite tasty for an intermediate stopping point at yesterday's low too.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    that was my prediction yesterday (1050) , but 3 things scared me:

    1. the euro seems to be on a C with a 1.6 fib on the morning values tthat seemed to point to 1.496

    2. the intraday push of the nasdaq at the time

    3. your orange scenario with almost 1070 target

    so I was doubting my initial feeling, but still kept my shorts, I'm trying to stick to my plan and leave fear and “live readjustments” behind

    and… i don't subscribe to zero
    (maybe soon I will), I'm a bit shy on blackboxes that I don't understand

  • AS2009

    X – looking bearish again … thinking a decent break of 34.77 should be a good re-entry point for the Dec puts – thougts?

  • http://eminitrends.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Mole Zero main is broken or not working. Plz check

  • bobthehorse

    X chart to me looks like it is going to 60 over next 6 months. wouldn't go near it as a short

  • onorio

    watch out for a possible (iii) of 3 up on ES

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    btw did geronimo ring at 9:58?

    p.s. you can answer much later it's just to check against a theory that I have

    Thanks

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    how are you counting that one?!?

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Near term resistance 1059 SPX

  • amokta

    can i confirm in writing from this blog (legally binding!) that the markets are heading lower, before i buy more puts?
    I recently subscribed to EWI forecasts and they are saying defo P3 started oct 21st (orig they said sept 23rd)

  • ultra

    Yeah I am looking at SPY 105.7 in an hour or two as our trendline bounce uncle point.

    Zero volume today or what… still that didn't stop us going to the moon last time. Gawd bless retail traders everywhere.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    legally binding statement

    use thy brain and thy balls

    all that thou hear here munch thee with thy neurons and take thy trade

    p.s. we're all learning here, nostradamus went for a piss somtime last milenium and is still MIA

  • onorio

    1 – 1032-1044
    2 – 1044-1037
    3(i) – 1037-1052
    3(ii) – 1052-1043
    3-(iii) – 1043-…

  • malusDiaz

    Repost:

    Conditions necessary for a black swan? Perhaps something like this:

    The charts: (These are long term charts, # stocks above their 200DMA

    DOW: http://alturl.com/wdof
    NASDAQ: http://alturl.com/gcbm
    NAS 100: http://alturl.com/3xkv
    NYSE: http://alturl.com/nspo
    S&P100: http://alturl.com/u7d8
    S&P500: http://alturl.com/ffsw

    THE 20 Day EMA is crossing the 50 Day SMA, but the SMA & EMA THEMSELVES are both some 42% ABOVE the 200 Day MA! WITH MORE STOCKS ABOVE THEIR 200 SMA then at the PEAK in 2007!

    IF they are looking for support, that's some 42% DROP to find the closest support.

  • amokta

    Yes nostradamus missing, but we have mahendraprohecy.com instead!
    by the way EWI place emphasis on 30yr T-bonds rising to 5% or higher as sign of falling stock markets

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't you think an extension on 3 would be a bit on the beyond 5 ratio of 1?

  • innatedc

    I hear the thundering steps and clanging of Mole's “trade your own fucking trade, mate” ax coming from the not so distant distance….

  • wex

    In the FWIW dept., I find that a lot of your analysis is extremely complex and I do not follow a lot of the shorthand references. By reading your posts I hope to improve my knowledge.I suspect others are in the same situation. When I have asked questions, I have been either ignored or ridiculed. It doesn't encourage loyalty. Hope this comment aides you in improving and enhancing the blog.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    my take is above 7% in less than a year (mentioned that long ago) but I'm just Nostradamus third removed cousin, so take it with a pint of salt

  • davosdax

    Corporal, where in Ireland are you? I have AIB puts. May 10's and Feb 2.50's. I reckon the Irish govt collapses next month.

  • bobthehorse

    Grow a pair and stop moaning. Honestly.

    Try and view everything on a value basis. Everything you read here is free so you don't have a right to complain, you can simply not visit the site.

    From what I can tell, there are some pros on this site as well so no need to dumb everything down. There is no formal training in trading, that's just how it works.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Ok so crazier things have happened over the last 6 months, but after the initial ISM pop, it doesn't look like one of those relentless grind higher days at this point. In fact, as someone pointed out earlier, it looks like a 50% retracement of Friday's move, and certainly doesn't look like it has the power to eradicate those losses or get back to thursday's highs.

    What do people feel is going to happen from here?

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    FSLR is one of the few stocks that I would legit invest in (long term) if I can get in around 100

  • CorporalCarrot

    I'm in Dublin mate. Where are you based and what is the basis for your opinion before I make my own comment?

  • onorio

    that`s why i said possible….

    EUR seem to be expanding a 3rd too.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nahh, the statement says the same in a lighter tone…but the again…MOLE ! bring thy fiery ax and crush any remaining “make my trades traders” to the sound of a gentle Rammstein music LOL

    p.s. it was a joke, “trade me traders” left for warmer lands with flying unicorns and farts that come out as rainbows and where thinking your trades is anatema to the good fairies that protect the small furry creatures

  • Tronacate

    TRIN is wanting to trend up…….I think we are coiled up a little here for a index drop…….especially with the dx finishing an ABC……pretty weak bounce after friday.

  • centerline

    Yeah, I caught that last decent ride down and made out like a bandit there. This time more of a 50-50 shot for the fun of it. If it goes the other here soon, I will jump ship. Options were so cheap, it fell into the WTF category for a day trade.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    eur (in the morning) seemed to be doing a 1.6 of the previous rise, my target was 1.496

    let's check it out

  • davosdax

    I'm in NYC now, but spent my early years in Dublin and London. I reckon the Govt will fall apart during the budget negotiations in Dec.

  • Tronacate

    BERK…….you may not get your 30 on FWLT

  • bshah

    damn…
    I missed getting rid of AMZN puts (110 DEC) in the morning… Still holding.. I should be keeping them it seems.. Still MACD is not crossed but STO, RSI, OSC is saying sell… Let's see

  • raised_by_wolves

    SSH, which 3X short ETFs are you trading? I ask because I have balls and want to trade against you 🙂

  • Tronacate

    RIMM……yowsa

  • innatedc

    Yes after those ISM numbers (which were, no doubt, bullshit) I was expecting to go up faster…..maybe they surprise us this afternoon. Picked off 22 ticks on scalps anyways…..

  • bshah

    is RIMM done.. ? Is it going to fill the gap around 43 ? Only then there is hope ..?

  • bobthehorse

    The real risk for bears is that the big mutual funds decide the ISM report is the final straw and start dumping fixed income assets for inflation-protected equities. That doesn't happen immediately but you'll start to see these trades coming through over this week if they happen.

  • amokta

    does premium of $23 sound reasonable for dec10 spx puts – they seem to have gone up from $18 a few days ago, but then they not come down in price when the dow has gone up today – why? am i missing something, is the broker trying to rip me off?

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    you may have to pay more now that we have downward volatility……

  • TonyMontana

    Check out TK's “Game Plan” post over at the SOH. He reckons that we'll see the ES go down to 1,005 before we see a bounce to 1,076

  • gregn

    Berk and I reentered near HOD, I got some puts at 35.34.

  • onorio

    That`s about 72% retrace from 1.5056, i was looking for 1.4920 or something arround the 1.4940 pivot but i will look at that 1.6 ratio.

    Anyway im planing to start adding shorts above 1.4920

  • Autopsias

    I find Geronimo great, and am a subscriber since the first day. I find the empty alerts a nuisance but not a big deal, since Mole/Eric usually send another alert quickly after.

    The only thing that bothers me is that it doesn't warn you when your subscription finishes. Which happened to me last week, so don't count me as a lamer which gave up on it, I just didn't realize my subscription was finished!;)

  • amokta

    yes i thought so – at the Great Mole said, when its 'safe' to go bearish, you may have missed out on the good prices. Of course, you could get burnt buying puts if the market rises, and time is running out on sht exp puts!

  • skynard

    Anyone see or explain what just pappened to gold?

  • CorporalCarrot

    Mate, you might be right. But I know some of our opposition, and they
    don't want a general election despite the noises they are making. This
    is because the country is so fucked they don't want to be the ones to
    take the tough decisions. Better to let the ones who fucked it up take
    all the pain.

    Thus doesn't mean your trade is necessarily a bad one though. Things
    are bad here, and getting worse.

  • innatedc

    Losing 5min VWAP here….

  • AS2009

    Cool – still looking @ dec 30s ?

  • gregn

    That's what I bought this morning. 30's @ .88

  • Tronacate

    BAC blowing below 15 again…..downside could get cooking

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nasty little bugger wants to help kill little harmless hamster…

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    QQ fell below 20 ema on the 5 min for the first time since the AM. Luckily i added a put spread a min ago

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Perhaps, but I read this fucker like a book. If I can't get my 30, then I will be sure to get on board ASAP, for now though, I am sticking with the plan…

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    Watch IYR here…….

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I'd look to invest in it after is touches 50 or lower, which I intend to ride it down to.

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    True…….just giving you a little shit…….thanks for all your work…..your little gems are saving my ass….kudos amigo

  • Tronacate

    FAZ rocking

  • raised_by_wolves

    I was going to put on an FAS hedge anyway. Come on, what are you trading?

  • Tronacate

    Berk…..keeping an eye on DTG…….?…..

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    gold is keeping good old S&p under the 1.0 line why?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    DTG could be getting close to a near-term bounce, but I got a boat-load of Jan puts on the puppy…

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Hey no worries. I'd expect a heads-up if I were dead wrong. On days like today, when half of my account is performing despite a positive market and negative $VIX, I can take a bit of shit…

    Skål!

  • innatedc

    The dollar could have reversed from the two levels above the highlighted areas Mole has on his RL charts above….the low is 76.08

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just went out to check good old euro

    this morning's movement matched yesteday's on a 1.6 basis, but euro has promissed more than what it has been giving since

  • AS2009

    How do you figure out what the top is to reload … share the secret 🙂 … you did it the other day too ..

  • fa_q

    Keep in mind that IYR overperformed the market on Friday when the CRE news came out. It is weak today but not as weak as it appears given the 2 day movement.

  • gregn

    I know it's going down and I figure after a big drop its going to bounce back on certain days depending on market strength and use fibs + gaps to find resistances. Typically a bounce reverses at 38.2 or 50% of retrace of fall from high to low (short term drop).

  • onorio

    seem we`ve painted a ABC from 1052 to 1043 on ES

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    CALM DOWN

    gold, euro, equities

    they're all saying 4

    (at least to me)

  • molecool

    IT'S NOT BROKEN!!!! DO NOT SPREAD THIS SHIT ON THE BLOG – YOU ARE FREAKING OUT MY SUBS!

    Zero signal is simply flat – see comment on chart – jeeezzzz…

  • wex

    Sir,
    As the comment wasn't directed to you I see no reason for your involvement. However, I was addressing possible reasons for the decline in visits and comments not the value of the posts themselves. BTW, adding explanatory comments doesn't dumb things down and even though I am not expert in technical analysis I earned a living in the securities industry for 40 yrs. In conclusion FU

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Do I get a gold star if FWLT hits 30?

    Skål!

  • molecool

    Aye.

  • molecool

    It will be fixed – give us a chance – we are working hard to hook this thing up to Multicharts. NinjaTrader is simply not stable enough.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Sometimes I feel like squashing cuddly little creatures.

    Where's Anna? I wish she were here to read this comment.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    but nasdaq's not saying 4…

  • CorporalCarrot

    Wex, I think the reason for declining visits is bearish exhaustion more than anything else. See the link on the previous post from the blogger from Centrifugal Deforest.

    Once P3 is confirmed to have begun, I guarantee that site visits here will explode.

    Secondly, I notice relevant to other sites like kennys site, there are often multiple posts here per day whereas other do a single post for a days trading. I would say in aggregate things are still moving fine here.

  • molecool

    Seriously – beyond all the work I put in he also wants me to respond to every single comment. Which when I do I get tons of heat for it.

  • Tronacate

    True

  • gregn

    This was what I was looking at http://screencast.com/t/5c7BGcpz3BgS

  • CorporalCarrot

    Oh I'm loving this move today. Unlike many bears, I actually did take the gift and re-shorted at levels close to HOD.

    The title of the post is absolutely spot on. Everything about the charts for today screams short covering rally, to allow the big boys to get out in an orderly fashion.

    I still believe as I posted earlier that we could close negative today.

  • AS2009

    Got it .. so if we missed that entry – what would be the next good point ?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • gregn

    15 minute price bar close below support @ 34. A close under there and we will be at 30 in no time.

  • innatedc

    Stole my thunder, bastard ;)….just was going to mention that. I was watching it as your post came up ……good work bro…it does seem to be breaking down again.

  • AS2009

    OK – that's what I was thinking too – break of 34 … also may be a chance of a bounce to 34.83 … but I doubt that will happen with teh action now ..

  • centerline

    Yeah. Sticking to my guns. Let this market come to me today. So far, so good. We shall see later if “sticking” turns to “stinking”!

  • Autopsias

    I will wait for it no problem. I trust you guys, even when you call me a greedy bastard sometimes 😉

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    It was teddy bear that is watching it…He's out of bed now and hard at work.

  • gregn

    Also, a good indication for a downward move is when you have two 15 min bar closing below 12 & 8 period SMAs. I use momentum divergence and the MA indicator to trade X in conjunction with fibs with a bias towards the prevailing market trend. Pretty simple, but it has worked for a while now.

  • innatedc

    <snort>

  • AS2009

    Thanks for sharing … 🙂

  • innatedc

    Just so you guys know the S&P nailed the 50ma to the tee from the chart I showed on the weekend…..

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    The key thing to watch for on IYR is a violation of the recent low (39.60ish). I think we could see that by the end of the day. I don't have any positions currently.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    1 4 violation on s&p, bulls have to come up with a more original count

  • gregn

    A double top would be a great way to end this rally, thanks for the chart.

  • innatedc

    Breadth just went negative…..

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    LVS down 6.50% heee heeee

  • raised_by_wolves

    You're lucky I'm 100% short again, but, mark my words, I will be trading against you once SPX hits one of my support lines.

  • Tronacate

    Wow…….A-D looks like it just jumped off the cornice at Squaw

  • gregn

    Nothing gets past teddy.

  • centerline

    Lunch time melt down. Same as Friday.

  • Tronacate

    Beat to the draw there

  • innatedc

    The declining tick vol is concerning me though…….could be a trap, keep heads up….

  • gregn

    X took out lows from Friday, 30 here we come.

  • clutchshorter

    Here we go, loaded up on my last puts

    MAR 100/90 SPY Vertical Put
    JAN 104/94 SPY Vertical Put
    DEC 105/95 SPY Vertical Put

    I added at 108, 106, 105.

  • fuw

    yeah. TRIN has been trending up today though.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    maybe, in the mean time, beat the market (it has beaten me often)

  • Tronacate

    Thnks for the headsup……..tightened futures stops

  • centerline

    Nasdaq leading into the red. S&P following now. Nice drop.

  • Tronacate

    We have a bullballs squeeze right here…….buy da dip didn't work agin…….wierd……

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    LOD (and for those not noticing) LOW and LOM

  • skynard

    Gold just popped.

  • amokta

    is the somewhat anaemic/shortlived bounce on the dow a sign of something?
    by the way, does rising vix increase premiums on puts – i take this is a yes (does cost of buying call options go up too, in vix rises, even if price stays about the same)

  • clutchshorter

    I had a feeling this was going to happen. Many times in July/August, the market would selloff in the morning and then there would be some rally in the afternoon. The tides have shifted and everytime this pig rallies, it'll continue to selloff. Lower lows, lower highs

  • malusDiaz

    yes, this is why buying calls on a bounce can be really bad, as the price rises, the vix drops as well, canceling out the delta gains.

  • amokta

    cheers for info.

  • raised_by_wolves

    My name isn't Lester. Don't worry about me. All trades are positive today, and all trades except AMZN lottery puts are positive since open. Back to charting. . . .

  • AS2009

    Yes – order for nov 33 filled … order for dec 30 still open …

  • TraderJoe

    or Corbet's Couloir =)

  • gregn

    I wish you would have been here earlier, you could have got in at a much better time.

  • Tronacate

    Corbet's………and hopefully a garage sale landing…..lol……fellow skier

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • amokta

    i dont believe it – how can dow go from being 140 up to being negative in the same day – please pull the circuit breakers at the NYSE – we need to give the Bulls some time out !

  • malusDiaz

    The'll get their circuit breakers alright, although that means the emergency exit doors are locked when everyone is looking to exit the burning building.

  • molecool

    I would never be so polite…

  • innatedc

    <snort>

  • innatedc

    Holy shit…went to make lunch and take another dump…not concerned with tick vol anymore…it jumped to 650+ which at this time of the day is big

  • innatedc

    Lets see the close before we break out the champagne big guy…

  • Carl V

    SPX popping up from the bottom of a bullish wedge. Mole, could it be the end of 5 (not an EW expert, don't know the sub-degree) and now heading of W2 of upper degree??
    http://screencast.com/t/7f1hzWXh3

  • raised_by_wolves

    That's not to say that I haven't had my own humbling experiences.

    Now that I reread your comment, you don't sound concerned.

  • molecool

    Gotta love the Tim-Meister 🙂

  • Hildenbrandt

    VIX double top

  • clutchshorter

    Forget that, it's time to push it. Bears are developing strengths. THIS IS SPARTA!!!!!!!!

  • Carl V

    sorry I wasn't clear: I meant end of w5 down of this first down move since P2 top, then now heading to wave 2 correction around 1070 or something?

  • amokta

    yes, i see that the circuit breakers cut both ways. I will see what EWI update today after close has to report. Just bought 2 more spx puts (thats my capital risk limit for now!)

  • Tronacate

    Your not still using that rip off broker are you?

  • Tronacate

    This little dip buying should get sold here soon……

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Trying to buy 100 lots at .10 for the Jan 2011 BAC.Its so longly at this strike price.No one wants to play

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    look raised, I don't worry about people, when I care and think I might help, I do.

    then it's out of my hands, worry is not logical

  • Tronacate

    Pretty good idea…….

  • amokta

    dont have a choice right now re broker, still worth it as only buying a few puts for med-term, rather than day trading. I think the more puts you buy the greater the broker charge ($1500 for 100 spx puts!)

  • AS2009

    Yes – I wish so too – hopefully – this will not kill me now 🙂 – was in meeting in the morning …

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    Went long DRN at 103. I thought the bounce (in IYR) might get sold, but this is looking different from last week's action.

  • goldpackers

    Carl, I favor this is a 5th also unless we just collapse in a sub dividing 3rd. May need another low or 2 to finish the 5th

  • fuw

    I think spx will turn lower again. This just looks like a retest of the opening and an shortterm oversold reset (or bearflag if you will).

  • centerline

    Closed out those AA puts a few minutes ago. Didn't like that bull flag. Looks to have been the right move. 40% gain in 2 hours on those puts. Can't complain – even if we drop further. Sometimes you just have to book the gains instead of getting greedy.

  • raised_by_wolves

    “worry is not logical”

    Well said.

  • Tronacate

    get on Tradestation…….that's insane

  • Offtimer

    Try somebody else. Options Xpress is $150.00.

  • raised_by_wolves

    There is a backtest of this line:

    http://screencast.com/t/jKGtsxk1u0r

    I expect this line to hold but will cover one of my positions if it doesn't. (Hint, hint, if GS is following me on DISQUS)

  • amokta

    cheers – will look into new brokers. In in UK, so some US brokers dont operate in UK (or some have stopped accepting new clients, like TD)

  • tradejane

    Good luck, 3rd time might indeed be the charm for the RE-bulls. I had my downtrend confirmed on Friday and again today, plus I've gotten busy on another front, so I just short the pops with my newold favorite.

  • raised_by_wolves

    True that.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I may be going LOCO, but any chance this is one crazy sloping triangle w4 from the 28th onward??

    if so, after a final, lowsy, rise

    we should see a prety fall

  • davosdax

    Market down Sept 1st + 2nd, Oct 1st & 2nd. I'm not goin long yet.

  • kryxtal

    Tradeking is the cheapest as far as I know for options. I use Optionsxpress though.

    ThinkOrSwim will pricematch other broker's commissions, so you can get TOS to pricematch Tradeking too.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Tronacate

    PALM new LOD

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    What I see on the 5 day chart is a double bottom in IYR at 39.6ish, and a tease (?) toward that line today. There's still plenty of time for IYR to fall over and die today. 🙂

  • tradejane

    Well, the DAX made a new low today but Commerzbank didn't. That could indicate another pop in the works. 🙂

  • malusDiaz

    this could be the end of an ABC of a 4th wave.

    3 = 1026, A of 4 = 1035, B of 4 = 1026, C of 4= 1034,

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I know a lot of people will say that we have seen the short term bottom until we run to 1060, but what if the bottom was simply a short squeeze caused by the hourly close outside the Bollinger Band on /ES and /NQ getting bought by algos?

    We're still in the /ES channel I have and DJT was red on the day.
    /ES channel: http://screencast.com/t/nQFCPQewa

    That being said, I think we might very well bounce soon. Just providing some contrarian thought. Probably gonna hedge long tomorrow regardless and close some Nov put spreads

  • m123456

    god i hope i wasn't the “oversold” guy you were referring to. I didn't mean anything i swear. 🙁

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    but now I'm curious

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    not logical but, are you ok? the way of the hamster waits you, we broke 0.97 on the spx:gold

  • Bankster

    Any plans to short the rally into the Fed meeting? Seems like most people on the blogs are positioned long or are bullish waiting for ES 1065 or higher. For example, annamall, Atilla, Tim Knight, Kemal, TheFly, etc. I am currently flat and looking to short starting at 1055.

  • Bankster

    Any plans to short the rally into the Fed meeting? Seems like most people on the blogs are positioned long or are bullish waiting for ES 1065 or higher. For example, annamall, Atilla, Tim Knight, Kemal, TheFly, etc. I am currently flat and looking to short starting at 1055.