Short Term Chart Roll Call

My apologies for the late post today – it’s been a very busy day for me and although I wanted to share a few charts with my stainless steel rats I just didn’t have a minute up until just now. Alright, let’s dive right in. The Zero running against the spoos was flat all day and thus a video update would not have been very useful. However, here’s a chart you may find very interesting:

Yes, it’s that Helter Skalper chart again. Please don’t think I’m trying to pimp this to death, it’s not even close to a service yet and I’m still debating over whether or not to turn it into a blackbox or as some kind of indicator feed. But be this as it may – it doesn’t take a background in quant theory to see that this beast played the tops and bottoms like a fiddle today.

If you don’t understand what those circles mean (I was surprised but saw this question a few times): The circles on top of the candles indicate that there is increasing buying exhaustion – the circles (no matter what color) below the candles suggest selling exhaustion. A simplistic strategy would go short on buying exhaustion and long on selling exhaustion.

Of course a creative mind could employ short term moving averages, Bollinger Bands, pivots, retracement levels, etc. to pick better entries and exits. Which is why I am debating with myself over the future of the great Evil Speculator experiment. In the past few months I have come to believe that my analytical forte appears to be in producing instrument specific momentum indicators (i.e. Zero, ZeroFX, and maybe Helter Skalper). Instead of squeezing the data into one specific black box it may be more useful to many traders to be alerted of specific conditions in a particular instrument, instead of a binary buy/sell decision. Think weather report suggesting directional odds. Maybe I am wrong but I would appreciate your comments and insights in what you think is the right avenue to pursue.

Alright, hand to heart – aren’t you glad I told you guys to get the heck out of silver when it touched the 25-d SMA line? It’s been doing the Hawaiian snake dance ever since and although I painted its respective Net-Lines sell and buy levels I would stay out of this right now. Too much hype and too much emotion in PMs right now – leave it up to the schmucks to get gyrated into oblivion. We are stainless steel rats – we wait and let our prey exhaust itself before we’re ready to strike again. I admit that sounds a lot more like a snake than a rat – or perhaps a genetically modified rat 😉

Alright, time to earn my keep – here a few more charts for my subs:
[amprotect=nonmember] Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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If you took that rather iffy NLSL last week then congratulations are in order. You kept some lottery tickets and won! Ding ding ding!!! But now it’s time to cash in your chips and head for the hills, big boy. We already bounced on my target line during the overnight session and you want to find a good exit here. If you are playing options take a look at the VIX which has barely move compared with recent retracements. Trust me – the MMs are getting ready to squeeze your premiums, so get out while the getting is, well reasonable. Frankly, this drop should have gotten the VIX to 20 and above and the current reading of 18.79 stinks all the way to heaven. So proceed cautiously and don’t push your luck, matey!

Similarly our NLBL on the EUR/USD ten days ago was pure manna from heaven. I think we may push a bit higher but it’s June and I would once more proceed with caution. How about this – take at least partial profits and if you insist keep some lottery tickets for a potential follow through into 1.48. But at any rate – this yet again was a profitable run.

Copper is trying to figure out what it’s going to do, but thus far it continues to paint higher highs and higher lows. I have painted the new Net-Lines buy and sell levels but we are currently stuck in the middle. There is no edge to be had right now – if we paint an inside candle today the odds would be much better. You know the drill.

I haven’t posted this chart for a while but the current pattern in the breadth department is interesting – we are looking at both the NYSE A/D and D/A. I am painting both as reading bearish extremes on the A/D is nearly impossible unless you put a log on the signal. But by doing that the respective fractals disappear so this is how I prefer it (in case you care).

Anyway, as you can see the tape has recently gotten less bullish and increasingly bearish. Today’s session produced less bearish readings, which is a supporting argument that we may be nearing the end of the current leg down. Most likely we’ll see a retracement rather sooner than later. Trade accordingly.

Cheers,

Mole
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