Skeleton Crew

Let’s face it – we’re at the peak of the summer vacation season and trading desks all across are operating on a skeleton crew. I don’t expect much excitement today and good setups right now are few and far in between. So let’s focus on the one chart of interest today, and – much to my surprise – it’s bearish one (gasp!!):

Yes sirree – we have ourselves a bonafide Retest Variation Sell signal today. If you’re unclear on the rules then check my handy cheat sheet. In a nutshell an RTV-S has a similar resolution as what the wave wankers (yes, I used to be one of them) refer to as a third wave. So the idea here is that this breach leads to downside acceleration – perhaps in thin tape not unthinkable. Based on the rules we ought to be short already but since we’ve pulled back here’s another chance.

However, let’s be clear here – this entry bets against the ongoing trend (as we have not dropped through any major support levels yet and we have non-confirmation on the ES and YM side. So the odds are low here – I would play it with a small position size and put your stop above 3055.25. Done.

Alright, since it’s a slow day I’ll make this a freebie. Our gold entry on Friday was executed with surgical precision and it has already paid off handsomely. After a squeeze to the upside we are now faced with an inside candle. Most excellent! According to the Crazy Ivan rules this allows us to manage our existing positions by pushing our stop to 1325.6 – which would also our signal to go short. If you are still unexposed (shame on you) then here’s your chance to hitch a ride – no matter which way it’ll breach.

Have fun but keep it frosty!

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Cheers,