There Be No Butter In Hell!
There Be No Butter In Hell!
If you’re a sub then you know today we received moderates odds of a trend day. I found that quite interesting as we were mostly pushing sideways at the time the trend alert was triggered at 10:15am EST. Accordingly we are now reaching a key level on the spoos, so this should be interesting:
1244 is our current NLBL and as I’m typing this we are correcting a bit near 1247. Also worth noting is that VWAP on the Zero is pinned to 1244.9 right now so this should provide at least some short term support. Nevertheless that inverse H&S is looking well formed at this point and 1260 roughly represents our neckline.
The weekly SPX chart shows us a still valid NLBL at 1277.56 which nicely lines up with those upper BB lines on the daily spoos chart (considering fair value of course). I think we have a fair chance of going there as volume is minimal but I do expect some resistance once we arrive. Again, considering the inverse H&S setup recall that you will quite often see a fake out move to the other side before a final breach and resolution of the neckline. But of course things are not that simple – timing is one issue, the other is the monthly chart:
There is still the matter of that diagonal resistance line on the monthly – which also suggests firm resistance near 1277. Of course a push higher would be rather positive – but we are quickly running out of time. On a monthly basis we already tested this line three times and January is not exactly bull market territory. I cannot over emphasize the importance of breaching this resistance line – it’s an extremely important inflection point which would provide much needed buffer and support for an expected January shake out. Should the bulls find themselves below this line on January 2nd then they better bring along swim trunks as hell keeps at a constant 120 degrees Fahrenheit in January (no, don’t ask about summer).
Now that I cheered you guys up – here are some FX goodies for the subs:
[amprotect=nonmember] More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.[/amprotect] [amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]
But between you and I (which of course means you and my subs) the chart to watch is the AUD/JPY – and that one is currently pushing toward its 2nd NLBL at 79.27. Truth be told I just reloaded this chart and officially that NLBL is expired but do recall that this is an arbitrary time window so I still think a breach here would be positive and get us back to 80 or even 81.
USD/JPY – similar setup but the target area is rather near around 78.4. Does not mean it could push a bit higher though.
Cocoa has dropped back to its NLBL (I knew this bitch would test us once more) and if you missed out on getting in yesterday then this may be your lucky (or unlucky) day. What I like about it right now is the additional support in form of the 25-hour SMA. You may just get in here and put your stop a few ticks below that one. If this one gives then we may pull back to 2180.
[/amprotect]Public Service Announcement: I am seeing some increasingly screwy readings on my MMMR charts. Without reposting them all in a nutshell they continue to push into unknown territory. So my current outlook is to basically give the bulls the benefit of the doubt – low volume, Santa Rally, inverse H&S setup, and all that. But come January there may be a new Sheriff in town, so clean up your book and make sure you do not find yourself over exposed after New Years Eve.
Cheers,
