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Statistics Cyber Monday
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Statistics Cyber Monday

by The MoleDecember 2, 2019

It’s Cyber Monday and the first week of December which that means you are going to buy a bunch of crap you don’t need and I have more statistics lined up than I could swing a stick at. I really hope you’re not reading at this on a mobile phone or you’ll probably have bricked it by the time this page has fully loaded.

Which probably would be doing you a favor as you spend too much time staring at the damn thing in the first place.

Okay so lets’ get you warmed up and comfortable. Standard deviation is historically low and most of the fireworks happen in the first two weeks of the month.

Meanwhile the trading range is the second smallest of the month, which suggests less volatility.

Despite a small trading range Sharpe stats for the S&P 500 are excellent at 0.44 – even exceeding April and November, which are part of the top quantile (shown further below).

Yes the Santa Rally really is a thing which is evidenced by a whopping 73% positive closes for the month of December.

Of course it doesn’t happen every single year and when it doesn’t happen the carnage can be significant. In fact 2018 was the worst December since 1950 and hopefully we don’t see an encore this year.

So it’s not really surprising that December ranks as the top performing month since 1950. The chart above simply adds up all the December returns and plots it as a single percent change curve.

Meaning had you bought on Dec. 1st and sold on the 31st every year you would have doubled your money. Not a trading strategy anyone would have any patience for but you get the idea.

All that puts December into the top monthly quantile, along with April and November. Very very tough to be a bear in the winter and apparently during Eastern as well.

Statistics For Week #49

The weekly stats however suggest that the first two weeks of month can be temperamental, especially next week suggests a bit of caution ahead of the annual ‘Santa Rally’ (unless it’s called off again like last year).

At least this week promises a good win percentage – historically we are at around 62%. Odds I’d take any day.

The weekly trading range stats also suggest that most of the volatility happens in week #49 (this week) after which it gradually drops off. Week #52 is usually on cruise control and usually to the upside.

Given all the above I think trailing here below the recent spike low near ES 3140 is reasonable. Hey, and it’s part of the rules, so no discussion, despite some of the bearish signs below

The stats also suggest that I’ll probably be stopped out by next week at the latest (I should be so lucky) and that a re-entry may represent itself in week #51. Sounds like a plan.

VIX Sell Signal

Speaking of getting stopped out – volatility is already jumping higher in anticipation of a possible shake out:

The SPX:VIX ratio started to droop lower late in the Thursday session and then picked up steam on Friday. Not a good sign usually and perhaps we’re getting that shake out a bit ahead of the historical average.

Such a sudden rise off the lows has produced a bonafide VIX Sell Signal – which historically precedes a sell off by a week or so. The timing is right and quite frankly I would be happy to see a new long entry opportunity before Christmas.

Now for my intrepid subs here are the top and bottom performing stock victims for week #49:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • HD

    Welcome back Mole. Let’s finish the year strong.

  • HD

    Not sure about the good ole VIX, again. Antiquated, outmoded, and unreliable.

    But the 3155 pivot? Still flexing. Actionable and efficient.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am RICH! TVIX from 6 to 65 in one day!!! Told you so!!!! Just kidding. Here is a picture of the Royal shitter here at Chatu de Chillon in Montreux. If you have tvix money drop it down this hole into lake Geneva. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f123a418d4c736838b16b11c26010b96eadfe3dcbd3d0ef63927903eb9920103.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We always do.

  • ridingwaves

    damn bear raid took out trailing stop on CLVS…..10 R’s in the bank….still going to get 22 still….hope I can buy in after another big bear raid….not likely though…

  • HD

    What a hit! If u didn’t like the Fibonacci at 3155, HWB the Nov rally is 3104 and the Nov TL is here 3112 SPX.

    IPA and donut time.

  • HD

    Back to 6 for sure. 🙂

  • HD

    Reminder to search twitter for $VIX tweets. Always a good Read….

    https://twitter.com/dkellercmt/status/1199394647904272385?s=21

  • HD

    My bad, 3112 was $1.50 early.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    3113.
    Maybe Rush will come out with a new album by then. (Google 2112 for ah-ha pun)
    😉

    At work, Sunday’s issue cascaded slightly into Monday. joy joy!
    all better now.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ff70327880fc3895acfebc860b7e07f7033a7fb601e62de5481f979bd7d54e7c.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    INDU,
    critical line.

    Intraday? you know what you are doing. trade accordingly!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/44dbb90c637010434d6d703d0b9818128e297075e261bba7bd701fc779903b0c.png

  • ridingwaves

    you shouldn’t be kidding about that trade….better to play your guitar instead of messing with an instrument of self destruction….

  • HD

    They gave u 2 chances at the 3112 level. So friendly.

  • HD

    What’s a better leading indicator? Oil or the VIX?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, I had a little size on there myself….sure messes up the numbers until they get cusips adjusted, the account in debit for everything that got sold this morning.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I speculate you will be having buffet today.
    so the Sh!tter is not far behind. (yes, that’s a Pun)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    In the old days they simply threw the witch into the river – if she floated the market was going to go up, if she sank the market was going to go down. We had a lot of down markets back hen…

  • bankwalker

    The best leading indicator I’ve found for SPX is RUT.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    maybe Julie can explain why TLT dropped.

    meanwhile
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/73c2dc15f01fa44dca9d2ba810b88eb6274f1747aa38baed24a48438f497b44d.png
    looks like SnP might have a performance issue.

    (sarc) I mean come on! it’s just a barbaric relic, a paper weight

  • HD

    Agreed, Definitely easier than the VIX

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $SPX Today’s minor bounce Yup off the 60 min lower cloud.and must get above the cloud. Goes below the cloud very bearish
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/853907fea33230bb94963289a7b157fc4385de07b4c82f8d9565740898f6dece.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    all hail the cloud. I’m a cloud believer.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG … Remember our very small short probe ? Well … ! ! … lol!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD At one time oil led SPX approx 8 weeks
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m not convinced. Remember: today is month begin.
    lots of things happen.

    I do have a small DRV position, and it’s almost green.
    tee hee.

    edit: target $32.33 if the QE pump doesn’t turn back on.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DRV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52421850279

  • pepe

    Sold long VIXY and short SSO. Bought UNG @ $17.88. Target $18.75.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Pepe Watching TLT for a bounce at 50% retracement 61.8% retracement will back test a broken trend line
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dbe3800cbfc92a6608b6a66af49835e30c78103f90a7b4e56db0522e181faafe.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Anyone gain any weight over the holiday ? I gained 2 lbs and Cyd gained 3 lbs lol !
    JULIE

  • HD

    Interesting. Will
    Check that out. Thx.

  • HD

    4 hard earned pounds here. Too Much good food.

  • pepe

    Puzzled as well but it might be a signal that this is just a small drop…

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Funny how a short seems to get triggered at the end of the month and the first few days of the new month get a rally and positive news. Seems like we had a lot of those this year. That is just the ebb and flow of markets no manipulation whatsoever.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $BKX Losing it’s 5 ema with a possible double top at very strong resistance. Negative divergences RSI and MACD on the daily chart. Gotta watch the Banks Guys
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bb19ee84269aae66060e9e1c7608d8fd964d5d9069b71ca3fb20f6aea2fe8dba.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The 1st six trading days of the month are retirement and 401K contributions. There are times when it’s sold into so be careful
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Pluto and Mars have co-rulership over the sign of Scorpio. Last week, Mars ingressed into Scorpio, where it will remain through January 3, 2020. Since both Pluto and Scorpio rule investigations, revelations, and allegations of cover ups (like extortion, bribery), it was no surprise that the impeachment efforts against both Presidents Trump and Netanyahu were top news stories last week. It is unlikely that these efforts will end by the time Saturn conjoins Pluto on January 12. Yet, so far, they do not seem to be having an adverse effect on world stock indices. In the U.S., investors are signaling that they do not expect President Trump to be removed from office. However, Mars in Scorpio will form an opposition to Uranus on Sunday, November 24. That aspect alone has a strong historical correlation to a sudden and steep declines in world stock prices within 4 trading days, after which strong rallies often follow.
    Later in the week, on November 27, Neptune will turn stationary direct. As Neptune co-rules Crude Oil, the energy markets may be about to reverse their recent trends. In fact, Jupiter and Neptune – the co-rulers of Crude Oil – will be active through December 20 when Jupiter forms a trine to Uranus, followed by the new moon conjunct Jupiter, December 26-27. It is going to be an interesting end of the year for many financial markets, for with Jupiter, nothing is small, and everything can be exaggerated.
    In summary, both Mercury and Neptune are stationary, changing directions from retrograde to direct, November 20-27. Finding two planets changing directions within a week of one another is oftentimes a sign that short-term trends in various financial markets are ready for a reversal. These two planets are interesting because of what they represent: Mercury is communication and information, and Neptune often relates to rumors and misinformation. This is not a favorable time to be caught in a lie, and allegations of falsehoods are likely to be rampant now (they already are). It is, however, a favorable time for music, dance, and the arts. With the Sun in the party and celebratory sign of Sagittarius, it can be a festive time to enjoy the company of friends and family. In America, it is a favorable time to celebrate the Thanksgiving holiday. However, it may not be wise to engage political debates, not with Mars in Scorpio and Saturn approaching its conjunction to Pluto. The season of Sagittarius favors lightness and fun, but the season of Mars in Scorpio, with Saturn approaching Pluto in Capricorn, can be heavy. If not careful, words can offend, even if not intended to offend. People may be careless of what they say, and others may be overly sensitive as to what they think they hear. That’s why rumors, misinformation, and misunderstandings may dominate this week’s trading in financial markets, as well as what you see, read, or hear in the news.
    ANNOUNCEMENTS

  • bankwalker

    OK … who’s gonna make the first ‘Uranus’ comment?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Ronebadger

    I got your SPX 30min trendlines right here, since beg-November…LOTS of touch points… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c79622122571dfae719c55c50d9e7079625d5b7f41c7410378a07f6578e64d63.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB SPX intraday a triangle developing in the cloud on the 60 min chart . Easily seen on a 10 min chart IMO a bearish bias
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    i need some fat pants.

  • Darkthirty

    After 2008 EWT / TA was pretty much destroyed by the fed manipulation and computer trading. Astrology has been fairly reliable throughout….

  • HD

    There’s a very nice EW 2-4 TL from the 10/9 low too.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    your daughter I presume.

  • bankwalker

    Mole scolded us last week for posting pictures like that.

    He was concerned that you might get offended.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    can you put a cloud on the /ES hourly?
    now *that* would be interesting

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s still PG-13 – so it’s permissible. But no underwear or naked pics! Unless they are of Julie of course 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I am still trying to figure out what he said…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes muscle!!! Mmmwwwuuuhaaahhaaaa!!!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    More predictable too.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, it’s lagging so….

  • BKXtoZERO

    I tried…. There is a Royal India in Lausanne old city area but it was 10AM.

  • HD

    Nobody that excited about 3112, see if that holds then.

  • HD

    2-10 handle rallies now, potential zig zag into VWAP just above?

  • Darkthirty

    That looks like a Swallwell cloud!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Julie, I mean “your wedgieness”.

    if EXAS does break down, throw out the wedge and get a real channel!!
    =P

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b247765e9b9d7e37534bf06039c08cd024e27a91d26d84f0392e0a014bc3c961.png
    RSI sub50 is a death knell. Muwahahahaha.
    Tick. Tock. Miss Wedgy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Getting the business end of confluence of EW and VWAP.

  • ridingwaves

    65 likely, 53 per PNF…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    any chance you’re playing an overnight rebound?

  • ridingwaves

    jumped in GLMD, stop at low today….tried this symbol before much higher and got stops blown out….small float, NASH news at play….undervalued target at 8.20
    VWAP at 5.25

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Follow up on 10 min chart. A post below stating to watch at 10 min 21 ema .. Up thru the 10 min 21 ema then up to 10 min 34 ema – upper 10 min cloud and an upper parallel channel drawn then a failure https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e6db78a13e9944610abdcab4058590913d292313fdc48c6538b927b83963fa0c.png
    JULIE

  • HD

    Will be flat before the close

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nice channel drawn GG I agree
    JULIE

  • HD

    Just got flat.

    3:3 today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    a retest of break out above 5 area would be sweet…..first move, shorts are now on notice….I have bids to fill lined up above it as I don’t think they can push it down that far…hoping in AM shorts get out in mass

    biotech symbol explosions are running thru that vertical, pe and hedgy seem active

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    $INDU down 0.8%

    Time Check.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX IMO heading down to the 21 ema approx 3101 then a bounce to a lower high
    JULIE

  • pepe

    A nice potential reversal hammer on UNG daily after last week’s brutal sell-off. Looking for a bounce back to $18.75-19.50 area. Tomorrow is follow-through or selloff. 🙂
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/338b4bb67c6d23eb70c4311aaa90818c19488e4e6468b8e6bb033cde4961b35b.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    look at August 5th. a lower white candle after the hammer. luv it.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $BKX With the negative divergences https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ed3aed5a178d6ff1f26db19492a5abbdc1031fc55e532f8afc11693edf97a472.png RSI and MACD on daily chart quite possible down to the 55 ema and 104
    JULIE

  • dojibarfly

    I believed everything up until Dt mentioned Pluto; everyone knows Pluto is NOT a planet!! My sister’s dog is named Pluto and she would never name a pooch after a mere planet, even a disgraced former planet.

  • Ronebadger

    That’s one excited VIX candle…and, a new Step One…somehow, I think we’re in for a few more Step Ones over the next few days. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c5a598fd0ab809ad5c8fd9aabf4e496a2e463730e9804439c6e1eb3ad316725f.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Let’s see if Asia can, uh—–get down tonight!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHEsE9yN2CY

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Cyd

    Senor Gerb I like it hot and steamy !
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    The lower bollinger band must turn up. See previously the lower band turned up on the 18th and 19th . The upper band turned down on the 27th and 28th

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no doubt, that Montana winter is brutal.

    http://www.umt.edu/this-is-montana/stories/montana-winters.php

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    one red day does not make a trend, one red week? can mess you up.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bf6dc079d1253597733eafd67b0507a75c68bbdecd4454dd13df467869ac249a.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    80 SMA envelope on the 4hr /YM
    Beautiful.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4ebc5681e12b7694686a8969a7ac7197000c719f5725d3c4150fd22732eb8a37.png

    I suppose ‘HWB’ is in order. HD? HD??

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Mole will be offering a Summer training session in 2020. US West Coast.
    😉

    Virginia to OUTLAW Krav Maga, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, kickboxing, Tai Chi, firearms instruction and self-defense training under proposed law SB64

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    Give it time, Cyd…we’ll see…

  • Ronebadger

    Futures this A.M. – Resistance here around the 3090/3100 area…good place to consolidate? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c81a581a27860285f73bdb978613272c5efef3c1363190efdedeb9b7550f3ac6.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    WHAT???

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You’re a lethal weapon.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey crew – looks like we’re getting that little correction sooner than later. How’s everyone holding up?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Wiley Coyote candle.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’d wait for a floor pattern… this thing may have mojo.

  • Darkthirty

    PPT vs algo battle

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not Uranus?
    😉
    (GG ducks)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So I should be illegal in Virginia. WTF is going on stateside? I may have to revise my plans to return if the second amendment is thrown into the wood chipper.

  • Darkthirty

    3056-3046-3033

  • Darkthirty

    More like joe tex……..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    make the SPX great again! Big volatility all from vix 11 LOL! charts coming

  • ridingwaves

    great!

  • Darkthirty

    You tell me. It’s painfully obvious that ass tronomy has no insight…

  • Darkthirty

    382 retrace is 3040.25 S&P

  • ridingwaves

    AXSM….what a beast of great non burden…..90 here we come….LABU is laughing at this tweet move..

  • ridingwaves

    I dated this 6 ft tall german korean hottie back in the day that was great at astronomy and had an ass….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    6 foot!?
    did you need a step ladder?

  • Darkthirty

    It’s illegal for me to carry in Chicago. I’m always packing. Knife blade limit 2.5 inches, that’s not good enough, either. I go in there with a predator mindset and rarely have problems

  • Darkthirty

    Don’t start with the “back in the day..” I damn near married a Mexican/Lebanese lady that fits the same profile

  • ridingwaves

    no I won milk drinking contests in grade school, but the german last name would throw you off after first site…..I was taller

  • ridingwaves

    that lady sounds exotic looking….

  • ridingwaves

    COSTA RICA…..all caps with emphasis

  • Darkthirty
  • HD

    SPX wave terminated. 3155 pivot w 5-1 relationship, zig zag below 2-4 TL and some symmetry getting crushed in c wave down.
    Noted CL early on the sell side. RUT, SPX made HH’s and VIX LL…….

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bd2e704b3c80f04f5349b92d213bc339d762f25812c6122ca13d981172ac9a6e.png

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/727b0f0e88afe8af338c152e562c33746e2647d9359dd07a1b8408fba440955a.png

  • ridingwaves

    Toyota just sold the most cars ever in NAmerica last month…..still no slow down visible in consumer….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, just remember those sales are to dealerships or rental companies, or banks.

  • HD

    agree, anything cool to buy these days? I did pick up a pair of klipsch T5 ear buds.

  • Darkthirty

    retrace calculation is based on alternation rule ….

  • HD

    could be. any coincidence HWB is right at round number? I think not…

  • ridingwaves

    people were paying for their cars not homes in 2009-2011…..oxymoron yea?

  • ridingwaves

    some silver coins for the little ones is always cool for xmas…..especially the Perth mint collection….

  • ridingwaves

    ARWR, blew it….damn….what a setup to boot…

  • Darkthirty

    The question is HWB on what timeframe? Going back to 1982, should be 3 of 5 primary?

  • Darkthirty

    Got a wet spot in my panties first time I looked her in the eye! Good ting it was mutual

  • HD

    Just using the current wave from the Oct low. The larger counts are for newsletters and paid services imo.

  • Darkthirty

    Going back to 8/25 starting 1 – 10/2 .786 as 2 – 12/1 completing 3 would give .382 the logical retrace at 3049. It overlaps 1 but that doesn’t matter anymore, so HWB at 3011 works too…

  • bankwalker

    SPX looks like a messy little bear flag to me … gearing up for another leg down.

  • Darkthirty

    i of 3 = v @3060 4 3085-90 5=1 3045-50

  • Ronebadger
  • bankwalker

    yes … like that … let’s see how it plays out …

  • Ronebadger
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker
  • Darkthirty

    A=C @3066

  • Darkthirty

    Walked into one of those rocky horror shows unaware of the cult thing…the 2x dose of psychedelics I had taken earlier made it a real trip. LOL

  • pepe

    Sold UNG for 2R+ @ target.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of most of my TVIX just now… 2 nice bumps in a row.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero snapshot – still attempting to push into the plus. I’m not eager to grab long positions until I see more of a floor pattern:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5b25155268749d3154ea58c83c6b6685eb9759ad444f88a95fee3d39ef6b2d11.png

  • Darkthirty
  • BKXtoZERO

    I was traveling helping others for the down market.when you guys travel let me know… Back..in USA

  • ridingwaves

    how can a symbol have 110% of shares shorted? pirates I say….

  • Darkthirty

    Ammo has been cheap, picked up 4K 22LR for .03. Teaching grandkids subconscious target acquisition …

  • pepe

    Short TLT @ $141.65. Price-strength divergence on hourly.

  • ridingwaves

    California requires me to do background check on one 12 gauge box of shells…..the fucking looney left is full frontal here….

  • Darkthirty

    Can you reset your posted historical charts with the data to begin in 2008? Or is that too short of a timeframe?

  • Darkthirty

    I’m a deplorable in flyover country, life is good!

  • ridingwaves

    Nice trade, though it looks like it wants to jump that 50-200 cross again…..crazy commodity….Fridays sell off was most volume in last 6 months…..killed the bulls and then hedgy and PE just jumped in to run up to further depress them…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    . RW That is totally ridiculous.Vote em out !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • ridingwaves

    I wish…..too many sheeple here…..example-voters approved a .35c more per gallon tax of gas….who taxes themselves?

  • Darkthirty

    Should be in the E throw over now

  • pepe

    Short UNG @ $19.12. Heavy resistance above.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW CA has magazine restriction too.10 round clips maximum ?
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    sketchy…..they emptied the bull bus on friday after turkey…..FOMO might keep driving it north….it was a Mole like setup for bet on long side…..

  • Darkthirty

    Asked an illegal why they didn’t get together and take back their country, he grins and says Why? we already have yours… I had to agree

  • pepe

    Thanks. I had a feeling I should have held for the second target ($19.20) but have learned that when UNG gives you a buck – take it, smile and celebrate Taco Tuesday. 😉

    Yes, it was one of those “let’s just grab the free money lying around in the corner” moments. Effortless, sans over-thinking, easy. A good trade.

  • ridingwaves

    good philosophy…..widow maker is too nice of a name for that commodity…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Wrong GG I covered 1/4 position lol!
    JULIE

  • pepe

    My biggest trading weakness: over-trading to compensate for either too early entry or exit. I get too eager to ring the cash register and then jump in again. But I’m learning… 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    day not over…..I do the same…hard to habit to break, commence throwing tomatoes at screen, soft rock from Chicago….please Terry Kath come back…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0y_XdwLtHiU

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TLT Guys IMO better be watching Going up into an upper trend line and upper cloud boundary. Breaks above a real negative for equities.
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/541f8fe41e1d3d19153ac57d84da325125021ce7346d98d8c073c554db2ee4cb.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    …Maybe not above 140.

  • pepe

    No conviction in price or volume for breakout. Today’s action was a knee-jerk and I think we are continuing the downtrend started a few days ago tomorrow. Short @ $141.65. Target $138.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ya… That was me. I wasn’t going to mention it and show off….but since you brought it up..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Your target Pepe138 is the baseline (21) 138. Observe that the conversion line (8) is above the baseline (21) which gives a bullish bias
    JULIE

  • pepe

    Sold UNG putters for 1.4R.

    Pepe vs UNG 2 – 0. Taco Tuesday with extra Mezcal! 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ha!

  • Cyd

    Everyone Julie is now a certified Watch Dog.There are tennis courts in town that are covered with snow and the lights were on last night. On her way to work this morning she dropped by the City Offices and told them to turn off the lights LOL!
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c60bc7c0d756a073abdc7abc7abba8c189afd7f83a6d0f3b5d23939ffa3d6af3.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Agree.. 1 yr chart looks like bullish contracting a la wanker 4 type of scenario.

  • ridingwaves

    yummy….good trading Pepe…..carnitas tacos con mezcal y cerveza…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    gss ?

  • ridingwaves

    looking better, running into stiff resistance here…needs to jump 3.50 area, 2 failed tries…..LABU is printing 90 on PNF…..concentrating in bio sector while its hot….

  • Cyd
  • BKXtoZERO

    My long term target is still…. Zero.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Indian food much better for trading reward. Ginger.. Tumeric. ..its good for you.

  • Darkthirty

    Solar sensors were covered

  • pepe

    Indian, Mexican and Moroccan meals are my favorites. Lots of spice, flavor and texture. Made turkey curry from the leftovers with fenugreek, cumin, ginger, turmeric, chilis et cetera. Superfood! 🙂

  • Ronebadger
  • HD

    Quite the day. If u caught the charts. Labeled the a wave low in RT. 25 handle rally off that. Check ur indicators, only price pays.

    Hasta manana

  • BKXtoZERO

    Lol… Almost everything is meaningless anymore. That would be a good study…. To scroll in time on an index and identify every flag then scroll and see how they play out.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Good man. Good trading.

  • HD
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    What do people gain from all their labors
    at which they toil under the sun?
    Generations come and generations go,
    but the earth remains forever.
    The sun rises and the sun sets,
    and hurries back to where it rises.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The Bulls have sold their souls to the Devil.
    It may be time to pay-up.
    Muwahahaha
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5db7846412bd517ece2d85b055dda6e0e8c0ac79c71c06a57e06f23916afe8d0.png .

  • Darkthirty

    Ticking away the moments that make up a dull day………..