Testy Thursday Rub Down

Today’s tape was a vertiable double groin kick to the bears – fortunately I wasn’t fooled for a second:

I actually was a bit of a bad boy as I didn’t paint that divergence on the Zero Lite until after the market closed. All truth be told – I was so busy working on programming tasks that I wasn’t looking at it for the last hour or so. But maybe it was for the better – all indications on my end pointed towards a rally into the close, notwithstanding all stubborn opinions posted in the comment section. And as I’m typing this the ES has pushed up another three handles since the bell. Yup – just call it that good ole’ Mole magic.

Program Trading Report:

evil.rat/ES: -5.25
resident.evil/ES: -6.25
geronimo/ES: -7 (damn it – streak broken)

Here’s the current most likely scenario – which is that we will probably make higher highs before we turn.

Many of you rats are expecting an imminent drop and I’m not saying it’s impossible. But consider the chart above: If this is some kind of ugly zigzag (and I’m not counting anything else theoretical) then we probably would have painted a B wave early this morning when I grabbed those ES futures. From there we would be painting a C wave, right? Now, it seems incomplete to me at this point and we stopped short of the 61.8 fib line. To give it relative equality we would have to see it push towards the 78.6% fib line (the fibs are multiples of the prior A wave) which gets us close to 1017 on the SPX. Right… one point away from the prior high.

Yes, it’s possible that we’ll turn one handle away from the prior high – if I learned anything in the past few months it’s that the word ‘impossible’ does not apply to this market. However, the question is: is it likely? And if so then we’ll see signs of it before it happens – there would probably be multiple attempts and perhaps I myself will load up on some puts right there and then as the risk is practically one handle away – easy to place a stop at 1018.01.

And of course we could rally a few ticks tomorrow and then turn around – nothing is impossible. But the most probably scenario right now is that we push higher. So, if you think we’ll drop like a rock from here, at least don’t do a Lester and bet half your portfolio. You have been warned.

That’s all I got for now – see you on the other side.

12:23am EDT: Depending on your time zone this is either late night or early morning reading – but reading it you must: The New Bull Market Fallacy. Hat tip to ZeroHedge – fucker digs up all the good shit lately.

You know me – I like anything involving phallic symbols. But I read the entire article and it was completely PG-13. Didn’t see one naughty picture. Anyway, enjoy your breakfast…

Cheers,

Mole