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Testy Thursday Rub Down
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Testy Thursday Rub Down

by The MoleAugust 13, 2009

Today’s tape was a vertiable double groin kick to the bears – fortunately I wasn’t fooled for a second:

I actually was a bit of a bad boy as I didn’t paint that divergence on the Zero Lite until after the market closed. All truth be told – I was so busy working on programming tasks that I wasn’t looking at it for the last hour or so. But maybe it was for the better – all indications on my end pointed towards a rally into the close, notwithstanding all stubborn opinions posted in the comment section. And as I’m typing this the ES has pushed up another three handles since the bell. Yup – just call it that good ole’ Mole magic.

Program Trading Report:

evil.rat/ES: -5.25
resident.evil/ES: -6.25
geronimo/ES: -7 (damn it – streak broken)

Here’s the current most likely scenario – which is that we will probably make higher highs before we turn.

Many of you rats are expecting an imminent drop and I’m not saying it’s impossible. But consider the chart above: If this is some kind of ugly zigzag (and I’m not counting anything else theoretical) then we probably would have painted a B wave early this morning when I grabbed those ES futures. From there we would be painting a C wave, right? Now, it seems incomplete to me at this point and we stopped short of the 61.8 fib line. To give it relative equality we would have to see it push towards the 78.6% fib line (the fibs are multiples of the prior A wave) which gets us close to 1017 on the SPX. Right… one point away from the prior high.

Yes, it’s possible that we’ll turn one handle away from the prior high – if I learned anything in the past few months it’s that the word ‘impossible’ does not apply to this market. However, the question is: is it likely? And if so then we’ll see signs of it before it happens – there would probably be multiple attempts and perhaps I myself will load up on some puts right there and then as the risk is practically one handle away – easy to place a stop at 1018.01.

And of course we could rally a few ticks tomorrow and then turn around – nothing is impossible. But the most probably scenario right now is that we push higher. So, if you think we’ll drop like a rock from here, at least don’t do a Lester and bet half your portfolio. You have been warned.

That’s all I got for now – see you on the other side.

12:23am EDT: Depending on your time zone this is either late night or early morning reading – but reading it you must: The New Bull Market Fallacy. Hat tip to ZeroHedge – fucker digs up all the good shit lately.

You know me – I like anything involving phallic symbols. But I read the entire article and it was completely PG-13. Didn’t see one naughty picture. Anyway, enjoy your breakfast…

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • annamall

    thanks for the update Molester! I am in cash, I have a few long stocks, IE
    MA, KG, RF and 3 measly spy puts, but I am done trying to catch this bullet train, and not going to end up with no cash to play with.

  • LegendC

    Learned an important lesson today about a stop limit order thank god it only cost me profits.

  • http://misinheritance.com/ misinheritance

    It seems many are expecting a drop, which I don't exactly understand. It's August, if you were Goldman/Fed/PPT, would you allow this market to drop right now? No, you wouldn't. And if you did, it would be short, sweet, and followed by a swift rally. Watch the vix guys, when it breaks out of it's wedge, we will know it will be time to buy volatility and sell stocks.

  • Implosion

    Yikes! I hope that my thinking about signing up for Geronimo didn't somehow jinx it already. <grin> I thought a jinx wouldn't happen unless I actually were to sign up and try trading it, which is what happened with Evil.Rat /NQ. <grin>

  • mmTesla

    Well, long term PUT position is whats stingin, but I figure if in the next 5 months if we don't have a meaningful decline, I'll walk the check over to Goldman Sachs. Other than the Puts its going well.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I must admit I got burned today on my ES scalps…big time. Its time to rethink my strategy and play it small while these bulltards play their games. The bulls have a lot of money right now from this 3 month long rally, and they can swing things any which way they like.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    glad I hedged my short around 1003…. theta has been kicking my ass all week.

    I agree with Mole on new highs tomorrow. I think next week will be boring and we will end around 1k. The momentum is certainly falling off the bull train, but they're not done yet. We're going to need a blow off top to turn this around

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I am beginning to feel that max pain that I have felt on the last few occasions when market has turned around. I think we are there…. tomorrows open might give us the blow off top we have been loooking ofr.

  • marketmaker

    I actually learned an important lesson from Lester today.

    I've been reading all the comments these past few days… and, naturally, buying puts.

    “Here we go!”
    “We're gonna drop!”
    “This is it!”
    “Gap-down baby!”
    “Die! Crash! Burn!”
    “SPY 666 or bust!!”(Ok, no one actually said that, but…)

    Needless to say, this hasn't worked out too well.

    Anyway, from now on, though I will still be here and will look forward to it, I am no longer taking anyone's advice or following or trusting anyone's analysis.(Besides yours, of course, Mole!)

    Don't get me wrong. I'm not angry. Truth is, I'm grateful.

    I realize now more than ever that what I need is to develop my own methodology, something that works for ME, and stick to it.

    I'm not sure what that system will entail or look like.

    But today – I grew as a trader.

  • PRSGuitars

    I'm with you — but mar 09s? wow — may I ask how far out you're playing it?

    Im not disagreeing, just curious as to your level of commitment (ie, how OTM / position size).

    Currently in SPY 100s and 103s (about 65-70% trade size committed), adding one last tranche around 1017 SPX tomorrow and hedging with /es if necessary. When this puppy sinks, it'll be raw and I want to be there for it.

    Needless to say, though, I am not inclined to stay around for long beyond 1018, because wtf?! beyond that.

  • Iguanadon

    Self analysis time. Show of hands if your brain works similar or has in the past but you've made changes to your synapses.

    I'm a logical man, and we won't get into the fact that the market isn't logical so I'm screwed from the very start. Anyway, I keep trying to pick the top of a move. I go short, get screwed. Either hold and watch my money drift away or I sell and try again. And again. And again.

    My thinking is that I don't want to miss the big gap down in the morning after seeing futures pegged to the max on the downside.

    Now, if I truly were logical I would simply wait for that big gap down morning to occur and then jump in. Because I'd much rather miss the first 5% of big move down than to try pickng the top as the markets move up 10% or 15% against me, costing me money.

  • charles_smith

    I sense capitulation. Bears are done, everyone's exhausted and moving to cash, etc., even as short interest dries up. I always reckoned the trapdoor would open when GS et al. were the only shorts left (by design) and with upside clearly limited the big money to be made is on the downside. Plus corporate bonds are looking toppy/speculative blowoff (see Mish today) and as Mole's dollar chart illustrated, the buck has the potential to surprise to the upside, regardless of the euro's neutron bomb today.

    The EU is “out of recession” and all they could manage was a 36-pt rally in the DJI? That says something about the upside potential being limited.
    But whatever–I'm probably wrong as usual….

  • mrBozo

    Double Top and it's Huge!

    http://highprobability.blogspot.com/2009/02/cnb

    Too bad that all the people who know how to run the country are busy driving taxicabs and cutting hair.

  • PRSGuitars

    I know what you mean about the puking point. There's also something to be said however about the strength exhibited by the market near 990. Freakish.

    I suspect the fall will be like the end of the dinosaurs — magnificent in its power, but with few around to truly comprehend the intensity of the collapse and the magnitude of how things would change forever beyond that point. We bears have to survive long enough — /es long or whatever — to trade this well enough to capture the larger rips, as mole often instructs.

  • mrclam

    Look at how many are buying puts still. This argument has been made all week long, and the dip has been bought every single time.

  • mrBozo

    Forgot to mention to check out the cock 'n balls formation on the above site looks a limp.

    “If you torture the data long enough it will confess to anything”

  • mmTesla

    Smaller Long term Position on the QQQQ Dec 09 45 Puts and larger long term position on QQQQ Dec 09 41 Puts. I am not really worried about the position since this market can't remain parabolic for that long. The nice thing about the position is I usually Day trade the /ES and so when the market started this insanity, I decided that I wasn't going to hold short any positions since it can just rocket higher without a second thought, and I wasn't going to buy into this BS rally, so I decided to put all of my day trading profits into waiting to buy a big Put position so if it expired worthless no big deal. Kinda like a pay as I go plan. Anyways position is paid for so I am keeping the day trading profits now.

  • thunda72

    MM…. I feel the same way (although my epiphany came a couple months ago or so). I used to go through my role-call of blogs, put extra weight on opinions of certain folks here on ES (Erik and Osso come to mind), but found that I needed to filter out all the noise. Now I only check out this blog, and SOH occasionally, watch Bloomberg (especially Taking Stock after the close) and go over my SPY charts and 40 stock watch list nightly to see what it is that I MYSELF see.

    More importantly, I've tried to limit the amount of orders I put in, and really try to pick my spots. I'm getting better and looking where the target is, and then targeting the ENTRY, which is just as important.

    I'm considering getting the Zero again, to help find good entries. I've been getting Evil.Rat for a couple weeks now, and use that as well (for 75% of the alerts).

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I will add that Mole has been dead right about this tape. he was right that we might touch SPX 1000 which is how far we fell this morning..

    The AH action has the making of a blow off top to me… I agree that this will correct at some point with a massive massive gap down… with most people left on the sidelines.

    ________________________________

  • da_bear

    Just like Britney Spear's movie, UNG is at its CROSSROAD.

    http://bit.ly/19m3wH

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i don't think so. there is really no bearish count that makes sense. all the moves down today were abc, corrective moves, the indices are all in ascending triangles, could pullback in the morning, if we do, i'm existing my shorts, because the next move will be up. the big $ that's been long this market needs to get out of it, and they're pushing it and coaxing as many into it as it takes. the SPX will see the top of its wave 4 of P1 before this turns.

  • http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com/ Forkoholic
  • TheMacroEconomist

    I can't speak for everyone. But I'm just analyzing tape and seeing what look like corrective patterns in the making. Of course I'm going to go wherever the tape takes me – the tape is always right, after all.

    And yes if a pullback does happen, quant metrics would favor a short swift one followed by a retracement into options expiration. Again we'll take it one wave at a time.

    The problem with the VIX “breaking out” is that it requires a sustained move down in the SPX to do it. And once the VIX is up, it takes a sustained move up in the SPX to tame it. VIX alone couldn't call the bull market top and 2008 meltdown because it often leans the wrong way at trend reversals.

    Now if you combine the VIX with other stuff – even something as obvious as actual / historical volatility – then you have a quantifiable edge. 😉

  • tsmith1238

    To all, forgive me for some very stupid questions:

    If the market is so manipulated and on such scale, which seems to eventually lead to a big world of hurt for the retail joe, why is the government allowing this to continue OR even participate in it? Government for businesses? Are voters that dumb? Will the economy be left in worse shape as a result and congress has bigger mess to clean up and need to answer to the people? I heard people who have been over 25 years in the trading and investing business and have never seen market like this. If manipulation is going on, are the manipulators so overconfident to don't even care about making it look more natural?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    fwiw, possible wave count, i think we just put in i of 3 of C

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • marketmaker

    Forgive the EW neophyte, but.. what does that mean going forward?

    Up, down…?

    Thanks for the charts!

  • springheel_jack

    I was never looking for more than a correction before more upside here, and I did wonder whether we would see that before opex.

    The most likely week for a top this month is the last one, and if we don't see meaningful down action before, I think we'll see it then.

    In the interim we still might just see topping action with a cap at 1070.

  • Iguanadon

    Based on his chart, following the upward channel, his target is roughly 1020 where the “3” is. The usual little ups and downs along the way.

  • byhiselo

    right on grasshopper, i'm still learning its almost always better to be late than early (on both the short and long side)…any real trend gives you plenty of opps to enter

  • charles_smith

    Agreed, the argument is getting tired. I guess that's its appeal to me 🙂 It's like the flip side of downtrends when bulls are looking for a reversal in every uptick.

    Some of those puts are probably OTM hedges against a drop. That said, I don't disagree with you–it's not so much an extreme euphoria on the bulls part but an exhaustion on the bear's part I see.

  • springheel_jack

    You sure? I thought wave 3 had to be bigger than wave 1. That would give a minimum target of 1027+.

  • Iguanadon

    You may very well be right, I was giving a rough answer to his “up or down” question. I didn't do the math on the size of the waves. I should have said that. Just as if it's a 5 wave move we'd have a wave 4 down and one more up wave from there.

  • St Deluise

    yes, voters are that dumb.

    “what the american public doesn't know is what makes them the american public”

  • charles_smith

    Yes. When the government is colluding in the maipulation, then what's to fear? A little lipstick on the pig for appearance's sake is more than enough.

  • springheel_jack

    You're right. I'm just trying to work out how high this wave could take us.

  • NYFITRD

    Recently stumbled upon this blog. I trade credit at a bank and I have been checking it during the day to get an idea as to what Equity traders are thinking. So far I think its a decent blog and I appreciate the charts/comments/color so I thought I would share a little of what I am seeing in Fixed Income and credit and the signals I follow. I know you all trade off charts and waves, but from my seat it looks like credit is about to crack. For example, despite the rally in equities over the past couple days, IG, HY, CMBX, and ABX are all lower/wider. Credit feels especially terrible when stocks actually go lower. Sovereign CDS has started to move wider. Given that every country has basically backstopped their financial markets, when Sov CDS moves wider, its typically a good indication that stuff is about to roll over. I am as amazed as the rest of you at the magnitude of this rally, but from what I am seeing, it looks like good risk/reward at this point to be short. That being said, if stocks go to 1100, credit will rally. I just do not expect that at this point. I do not expect a massive selloff; I am thinking 20-30bps widening in IG credit, which could mean a 50pt selloff in SPX. I think there are too many dip buyers to let it get out of hand initially, but eventually I think we will take out the March lows.

    I was also a little surprised with the market reaction to the Fed yesterday. Maybe I am wrong, but in my mind, I thought Bernanke made it clear that he was going to pull the liquidity at the end of October. He pushed it back a month because the market was clearly looking at that one statement and I think he wants to gradually take the liquidity out. I thought the statement was clearly dollar bullish and risk bearish. That being said, the market may just think he is full of crap and wont stop printing money. I really hope he stops because if he doesn't, the dollar is done. I guess we will see.

    Sorry for the long post

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Banks appear to have begun the fifth wave per my previous forecast. Chicken Oscillator is giving good wave signatures that suggest the fourth wave is complete.
    http://tinyurl.com/pvh57e

  • springheel_jack

    Thanks, that's very interesting. +1

  • springheel_jack

    alpha, check out Mortie's latest post at BW. His count similar to your. Also forecasting upside tomorrow.

  • springheel_jack

    It means up tomorrow, like Mole says.

    Have a look at Mortie's latest post at BW.

  • PRSGuitars

    Don't apologize, that's great — thanks for the commentary. Check in whenever you can, please; many of us are credit noobs who appreciate someone with an ear to the ground as far as spreads go.

    I don't imagine you have charts of this, as I can't find CDS data anywhere — is it correct that the quotes are almost wholly unavailable to the public? I find marketaxess or something suggests I pay for quotes on spreads. Bummer.

  • molecool

    I expect the U.S. long bond to go sideways for a while and then drop below 110^00. After that we'll see a monster rally – should line up with the end of Primary {2} in equities.

  • springheel_jack

    it has been an expensive summer for bears Anna.

    We need to make sure we're still around when this rally finally does end.

    As PRSG said above:

    I suspect the fall will be like the end of the dinosaurs — magnificent in its power, but with few around to truly comprehend the intensity of the collapse and the magnitude of how things would change forever beyond that point. We bears have to survive long enough — /es long or whatever — to trade this well enough to capture the larger rips, as mole often instructs.

  • NYFITRD

    Yeah you would need a bloomberg terminal to see the spread changes, but it should be similar to the BAA-TYX spread that Mole has talked about in previous posts.

  • springheel_jack

    Pure poetry mate. Beautifully put.

  • TraderWannbe

    I agree as well. In May and June I got burned from the advice from this blog. I now only read for Mole's crazy video posts. Since 90+% of all traders fail I'd say the about 90+% of the advice here is also wrong. Too much trying to pick the direction before any sign of the direction actually shows up.

  • NYFITRD

    the rally in treasuries after the bond auction was impressive. To rally that much in the face of billions in supply coming in the next few months with stocks in their reflation mode is impressive. Tells me that something bad could be coming. It may sound backwards to some, but I actually think Bernanke stopping tsy purchases is bullish for treasuries. Which also goes along with my bullish dollar and bearish risk outlook.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Glad you stopped by. I am not a credit trader (options is my game), but it is an area of the markets that intrigues me, particularly in this day in age.

    Interesting that you mention that spreads have gone out while equities rise. A ratio I keep an eye on is the JNK/TLT ratio that, today, took a significant fall while equities staged their ever-so-predictable rally.

    Thanks for the comments.

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Please feel free to file this under “just another lunatic's gibberish ranting,” however, the setups do create some outstanding risk reward trades several times a year.

    Also, not looking for a fight here, or to argue my point – I just want to share some of the harmonics and price/time cycles I look at on a long-term basis. With that said, please bare with me as I simply lay out the dates and prices. You can easily confirm these “coincidences” for yourself. Everything is FIB and GANN related in this example.

    To me, the time cycle low was back in November. This would dovetail nicely with EWT ideas about Irregular B Wave formations, but that is for another discussion.

    I do believe that although there is/can be an alignment of price/time cycles on most occasions they are often out of sync – but still closely related. To me, this is what causes the most violent reactions or reversal patterns as they realign themselves. When they are out of sync you can usually extend the primary move by the counter trend (high to low) reaction and get an approximate DNA or “blueprint” of the true relationship between the particular price/time sequence.

    This provides two price points:

    1) the primary trend termination point
    2) the counter-trend reversal point

    S&P 500 Cash Index

    NOV 21, '08 Low = 740.33
    JAN 06, '09 High = 944.34
    MAR 06, '09 Low = 666.67

    Looking at a GANN WHEEL (old school) or the software will prove the market has consistently reversed direction on 45/90/120/180 degrees from previous highs and lows. +/- less about 2 days.

    Now, using the initial three point listed above you get the following:

    944.34 – 666.67 = 277.67

    740.33 – 277.67 = 462.66 This is the target for the next cycle low or primary trend termination point (1).

    740.33 – 666.67 = 73.66
    73.66 + 944.34 = 1018 (This was last week's high)*

    Now, how/why else did we get to where we are this week? Using the same points (Irregular B Wave) for the extending C Wave back up from the MAR low we get:

    666.67 – 277.67 = 389
    389 X 2.618 = 1018.40 (again, where we were last week – still the high)*

    Of equal importance is the fact that we are 262 (2.618) Degrees in time from the NOV 21 low, right now. Depending on how you line it up, it was either yesterday or today.

    By the way, once we get the first few cycle moves down we can forecast the probable dates for the 462.66 number.

    Be well.

  • Kemal_1

    I found it very remarkable that the prices for investment grade corporate bonds went higher (interest rates went lower) than at anytime during 2007 or 2008.

    http://tinyurl.com/kuj32p

    Is there so much less risk to justify such an enormous rally? IMO, the risk of a default has never been higher in the last 10 years than right now. Even among investment graders.

    And once a bond loses its investment grading, a total loss is more likely than ever, as demonstrated by our government in the case of GM bonds.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Folks, the futures are selling off … finally

    ES is down by 1 point and NQ by 0.5 point… If you expected a bigger selloff, then you are a fool… dumb fool…

  • NYFITRD

    yeah I have never looked at that ratio, will check it tomorrow. To me this feels like the selloff we saw in June. Shorts capitulated in credit and now we are moving wider. I dont think there are many shorts left in credit to be honest. Stuff starts gapping wider when stocks go lower….should get interesting

  • Kemal_1

    How brutal…. 😉

    Fortunes are being destroyed.

    Obama to the rescue!

  • NYFITRD

    credit has stage an impressive rally over the past few months. but I am not talking price when I talk of investment grade credit. I talk of spread to treasuries. So if treasuries rally, credit will rally as well (yields lower). This implies a higher price in both assets. but when treasuries rally more than credit, spreads widen. that is what we watch. So your graph is correct, but on a spread to treasuries, they have underperformed. what I am talking about now is a widening in the spread of credit to Treasuries….credit has gotten worse relative to treasuries over the past few days while stocks have rallied.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Now that I managed to grab your attention, albeit with the stupidest comment on this posting.. what is your outlook from here, both on EUR/USD and SPX?

    ________________________________

  • NYFITRD

    I agree with you though, I actually think credit is more expensive than equities

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    We used to say: “hear no Evil, see no Evil” (no allusion to Mole in no way)

    500 traders on the floor, everyone had an opinion, everyone has specific trade durations, everyone has favorite instruments, methods. Together they are just noise.

    But get this – IF trader KNOWS WHO DOES WHAT and WHEN WHO IS HOT OR COLD…it does help.

    Lester was (is) a great example of market idiot – listen to everybody without understanding what/who he is listening to.

    Listen to the noise – filter out the sound.
    What I am trying to say here is that – you HAVE to listen and read and watch – you just have to be able to absorb that information and come up with your own best decision – none lasts in insulation.

    I, for one, read none here …and everyone, and when I do that I try to analyze others points of view and find flows – not to piggyback, I even grade people here, just like old boring school teacher (don't ask me who's go what grade 🙂
    By doing so I might find something I missed or, au contraire – fortify my own conclusion

    P.S. I hope you were not buying puts because I said “That is it” 🙂
    (I have no recollection of saying that)

    One thing thou – noise here is getting unbearable lately, especially after “too few comments” complains 🙂

  • Squidman

    Banks are going to be nationalized. Who first, WFC or C. Can just hit a brick shithouse and the stinktrap is going to tumble the wall. How are we going to create inflation to offset the housing implosion when nobody can spend? I have no idea.

  • innatedc

    Question is how far of a pullback….

  • Me_XMan

    False hope?

  • Me_XMan

    Chicken. How far up can SPX go?

  • Kemal_1

    Last Friday, my favorite SPX count was that minor A has topped at 1003.5 and that an abc correction has started. [a] being an expanding triangle and [b[ a thrust out of it.

    http://tinyurl.com/mdzsd5

    I keep this count, but think that there is a possibility that [b] is actually also a triangle composed of three waves. A brutal [c] wave thrust down would follow, i show the count for the Industrial (SPX is identical):

    http://tinyurl.com/lk9nqw

    Right now, that's a hypothesis. We need to see what the market really does. A brief triangle throw over is certainly possible early tomorrow.

    Important to note is also the potential double top on weaker volume in the XLF. Negative divergences everywhere. Finacials were the leaders the past three weeks.

    http://tinyurl.com/pps6rk

    And regarding Mole's channels: very nice work. But I can't dismiss that the SPX is continuously moving to the right, away from the middle. That indicates some exhaustion.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    If the emotion is hope.. somewhere you already know that it is false . LOL

  • Kemal_1

    I posted above.

    Regarding EUR/USD, I still feel strongly that it will break to the upside, direction 1.49. Very short term, some pullback is likely. Could be about 150 pips to around 1.4120 – 50.

    The case seems very compelling to me. A very convincing EW structure. I will post a chart tomorrow.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    thank you
    David Dumb Trader

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    few days ago (cannot recall who) wanted to short WYNN
    I asked “what is the most you can get there?” (meaning “not much”)
    And WYNN kept climbing (on LVS news as we know now)

    Now it looks like prime short for tomorrow
    http://screencast.com/t/sKjruCFLd

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    If EUR/USD is going down to 1.4120-50, what is your downside target for SPX before it starts moving towards 1070 or so ?

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    Mole it seems you're rarely fooled for a second! Nice work as always.

    I've been updating the below SPX chart a few times a week and its gotten interesting from my view.

    http://screencast.com/t/2Hzl64YF2

    For all the rats are we in the house or outside?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vvj0N_QqPV8

    Lastly for my man S&P some music to enjoy

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HD73LyWpcw

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    I decided to be “Joe Smart Guy” today and picked up some TLT puts (betting 10 year t-bill rates would go up), I was flat out crushed after the auction. I suppose it could have been worse but I did learn a very important lesson:

    I will never trade before 3pm again
    I will never trade before 3pm again
    I will never trade before 3pm again
    I will never trade before 3pm again
    I will never trade before 3pm again
    I will never trade before 3pm again

    Oh in case you missed it….

    I will never trade before 3pm again

  • marketmaker

    Thanks Dave.

    I hear you.

    I'll still be here, reading everyone's comments. I'm an information junkie, and like everyone else, always trying to gain an edge.

    But I have to learn how to trust my own judgment first, is all I'm saying.

    You heard the saying, that if you don't believe in something, you'll fall for anything.

    And I don't want to be that guy. I'm here to make $$$.

  • Kemal_1

    The correlation between SPX and EUR/USD is loose at the moment.

    Minimal target for SPX 984. More normal 960 – 970. XLF should correct back to 13.

  • marketmaker

    That can't be right, because I'm negative delta.

    Therefore, we MUST go down!

    Doesn't the tape know that? Doesn't the tape know who I am?!

    LOL!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “Yes, it’s possible that we’ll turn one handle away from the prior high – if I learned anything in the past few months it’s that the word ‘impossible’ does not apply to this market.”

    ??Mole
    this is the best of all words when market turns the moment when it touches prior extreme, but fail to close on the level exceeding it.
    That indicates that none believes in change of direction yet AND the BEST time to place bets against herd at the best possible price.

    That happened on July 8/12
    http://screencast.com/t/Qu0dyuXW

    That just might happen now
    http://screencast.com/t/ez3N6eqb

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “I will never trade before 3pm again”
    never say never

  • ropey

    They are going to fill that SPY 105 before the roll over properly – i can feel it in me bones.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    No deep thoughts tonight, too drained after watching my ass get kicked today…just Michael Vick and a Baha Men Video.

    Visit in a new window so you can return to this blog (after clicking a google ad of course ;o) )

    http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com

  • ropey

    the market is still trending up – stuff on Persons' Pivots and look at how they line up – all up, even next month is predicted up and there is a theoretical max for 108 on the spy….once the pivots line up going down, it's clear where the trend is..even if they flatten out but right now meh….
    I've been fighting this fucking tape for 2 weeks, it's tough bloody work which means i am wrong – i need to flip short-term. Will think better shorting times toward end of aug / sept..not before.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Yeah, that's gonna stick like… “I'm never going to drink again” huh?

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    As high as it wants. Mole's point about anything being possible is true. Seriously, I have no idea. I just watch for resistance levels and changes in momentum until I feel like I have a grasp of the wave structure.

  • Fujisan

    Greetings from Japan.

    I'm visiting my family in Japan and I have a very limited access to the interenet, so I won't be able to make any posting for a while, but I hope everybody has a chance to take some time off before the summer is over!

    Good luck to you all!

  • ropey

    David, when we actually get back under 1000 and stay under it, i'll be more inclined to be a bear but right now the bull exploded out of my bear suit ( think aliens ) and i need to play the tape ot the upside – just do not see us going down tomorrow and next week the OI is a mess, certainly not setting up for a big fall so i suspect 101-102 ( and it keeps climbing ) – we're only 4 points away from the gapfill on the spy that was open since last year, they are going to fill it or at least test resistance, put up some flow to see how the charts can get to there, it ain't far off..

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Have fun Fuji…family is what is truly important. I also hope you picked up some yen when the dollar was stronger (I'm guessing yes).

  • mrclam

    Have yourself a nice trip fuji! 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Ropey – I am not “bear” at the moment, don't get me wrong
    I am trading pullback – that is all I am up to at the moment.
    In my books W4 which I believe has a great chance to start tomorrow morning is just what it is meant to be – corrective wave good for 40-80 points.
    we have yet to face W5 up which might be flatter, but still up.
    Again – I don't expect any “spectacular fall” before mid September at least. (as it stands as of now, but things do change, are they?)
    Think of what I do as a “contradiction with a reason and timing” – I am not THAT dumb to be “just contrarian” 🙂

    PLEASE, DO read this (and anyone else who pays any attention to the Dumb Trader – this is as of July 5th)
    http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2009/07/es-s
    I've been patiently waiting for this number – why should I change my plans now?
    Only because there are still some shorts left alive?

  • charles_smith

    excellent analysis, thanks for posting it.

  • Me_XMan

    SO what's wrong with TLT?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    was wondering where were you 🙂

  • Me_XMan

    Well after looking at the charts tonight I've come to conclusion that we'll see SPX 1040 this month yet. And then strap on couple more rockets and blast TO THE MOON…hahaha…UFB!

  • Me_XMan

    Sooner or later they will have to come out with those bad debts or we'll be like Japan hiding forever and become zombies.

  • charles_smith

    Fuji-san, we'll miss you this weekend. Have a Kirin beeru in our honor, kudasai… the Kirin shipped the States now is bilge, not the real stuff we used to get in the 70s. so, Kampai!

  • ropey

    Oldie but a goodie..bernanke song from a few years back.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3u2qRXb4xCU

  • mmTesla

    Looking to enter Long /ES 1009 to 1008, stop will be very close. Target will be 1022, 1030, but if the tape changes I will dump them sooner.

  • Squidman

    In the shadow of Fuji no doubt. I envy you immensely. Tell your brethren to save some ahi for us!

  • mmTesla

    Fugu sushi! Dangerous but tasty 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    something to watch (trade related 🙂
    http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/play

  • molecool

    We all miss you, Fuji! Thanks for checking in – hope you're having a great time down there 🙂

  • molecool

    I see a lot new faces here tonight and I like it. Maybe stocktwitter is pretty useful after all…

  • Steve

    Fujisan, Have fun!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    wave 3 just cannot be the shortest wave it has to be longer than either 3 or 5 not both

  • lisa

    Before going to the link, sit back, turn up the sound and enjoy.

    http://www.thejoymovie.com

  • bist

    On Tuesday when the market tanked, MBS's gained. Yesterday when the market rallied, MBS's barely budged. And after today's gains, MBS's still remain mostly unchanged, actually they gained a little bit. In a true rally I'd expect MBS's to drop significantly. This might be evidence that money is being taken out of the market/staying out of the market.

    But these are just MBS's it'll be interesting to see where the junk bonds are at.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    What's interesting about tomorrow morning is how the economic reports are staggered. CPI at 8:29, Industrial Production at 9:14, UMich Consumer Sentiment at 9:55.

    I'd personally like to see a good report set the open near the overnight highs – forcing a resistance test at the top of the triangle/wedge early on. IMO this is where the real battle needs to be fought. If the market can't hold above the triangle, there's an excellent chance that it rotates all the way through and tests the bottom side.

    A weak report that sets the open near the overnight lows might catch the fancy of the buy the dip crowd. Especially if a subsequent report comes in close to estimates – today's action around 10AM after Business Inventories is an example.

    An opening in the middle of the overnight highs and lows, that stays in the middle, probably stretches the whole pattern out in light summer trade.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    If we do break through all the resistance near 102, agreed that there's lots of “clear air” up there. 🙂

  • standard_and_poor

    Back at ja Player:
    (still working the friends of Bob Dylan theme)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hY_mVnBhzs

  • mmTesla

    Love it!
    *tip of the hat*

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Enjoy Fujisan! Wow if you'd only seen the USD gyrations on Wednesday. 🙂

  • molecool

    BAA yields keep dropping, so cash is still going into junk.

  • standard_and_poor

    Hi Fuji, have fun and return safely!

  • thunda72

    Nice chart…

  • grednfer

    FWIW…..there is a lot and I mean a lot of put activity on the AUG SPX and SPY…..which expires next week.
    The big volume on the strikes are different though.

    On the SPY the heavy volume is between 980 and 960.
    On the SPX (spy*10) the volume is more at 950……and I saw a massive 10000 contract butterfy at 925 900 875. Which is rare, I don't usually see butterfly type volumes on the SPX.

    Next week is option expiration and they always run the sweep….so we'll see how far they can drive it.

    I think they are going to shake all the bears off the top first. No easy money any more.

    I went short earlier at ES 1015…..no stop.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    SLV puts activity http://bit.ly/arQmo (playing with …tweet-whatev-er)

  • http://rosabarba.livejournal.com Rosabarba

    One day does not a trend make, but the junk spreads were wider today (compare HYG/JNK to TLT, or the more robust credit report from ZH: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/daily-credit-s…)

  • grednfer

    I couldn't read your link……but saw the 13 activity. 32K in Sept and 15K in Oct. I don't follow SLV.

    I accidently (don't ask) sold some sept GLD puts today (91s). I was going to let it ride…..gold is pretty stable and all, but it looks like the world is preparing for a dollar rally.

  • steveo77

    What with all I have been writing about how the Ol' Buck should strengthen, this just doesn't look bullish to me. Sure the IHS is there, but it's also a diamond pattern which is often a continuation, downward. Conflicted and tricky, like the overall market itself.

    My overall level of blogging and blog partcipation has gone way down. In a way that is a good precursor to a market top — exhaustion of the mind and the tape.

    I am thinking that most of the big drops will occur at night, like the big ramp up, most of the profits were taken at night. This means futures. But don't jump in to futures when the real battle starts…the increased leverage will play on your emotions, you best do some practice before 3 down starts.

    Chart of USD/CAD

  • grednfer

    Yeah…..I usually don't act on anecdotes…….and I don't see the “catalyst” for the dollar rally…..if anything it should get weaker.

    But I do tend to pay attention to the where the big money is going. As I think the market creates it own reality irrespective of our reality.

  • springheel_jack

    Have a good holiday Fujisan.

  • steveo77

    How do you watch where big money is going.

    Maybe if there is a panic, people will run to the dollar again, causing more stock losses…more panic, more dollar buying.

  • springheel_jack

    Got it. Thanks.

  • grednfer

    I deal primarily with the S&P. It takes big money to move on the SPX. The put moves I've been seeing lately aren't blogger type moves…they are bank size moves. And they have a big bet flavor towards 950.

    Its just a data point, as we know banks lose money too.

    I sell puts so I have to hedge (especially during expiration week) and futures provide the best vehicle against getting my face “gapped” off.

    Yeah on the USD maybe the cascade effect…..stock market drops, flock to tbills and sell other currencies…….etc…..dollar rally creation.

    I think if it gets to 950 they are going to buy it hard. And I'll be selling the 880s…….so bring it on. I need a good down spin to pump up put prices.

  • springheel_jack

    I don't think the inverse relationship between SPX & USD is broken. If SPX keeps rallying, USD will fall.

  • springheel_jack

    LOL

    Richard Chappell
    Operations Director
    http://www.ownlabelawards.com
    Email: richard.chappell@gmail.com
    Mob: 07986-998 322

  • steveo77

    Its been reliable, of late, however, its not like the rest of the world owns all the S&P and therefore any correlation is not 100%, although it has acted that lately.

    But I think the relationship works the other way….if the USD falls, SPX gains, if the USD increases, the SPX will fall. FX is a much larger market than stocks. USD is the dog, SPX is a big tail, maybe a fat tail.

  • steveo77

    I was thinking same…sell puts, hedge with futures.
    I could probably make a good enough living selling covered calls and protective puts and have the cash to own duetral nuetral equity, but….if there is real knowledge and trade skills…why not make more. keep more cash on sidelines for more good trades. Your take?…cover with futures, or other verticals, straddles, all that stuff?

  • springheel_jack

    You're probably right.

    At some stage though the correlation will break down. Perhaps soon. Not there yet though.

    Richard Chappell
    Operations Director
    http://www.ownlabelawards.com
    Email: richard.chappell@gmail.com
    Mob: 07986-998 322

  • steveo77

    Does anyone out there have experience with SSF (not super stacked females), i mean Single Stock Futures.

    I have an IB account, sitting in cash as part of my “cash hedge”, but thinking about gearing up for some SSF, and possible, doing a covered call or protective put strategy with the cover or protection being a SSF. Thanks for any help on this.

  • springheel_jack

    Like your blog DavidDT.

    Your forecast from early July was a bit spooky. Good call.

    Good interview with Faber as well.

  • springheel_jack

    I see your point steveo. If USD is the dog that wags the SPX tail, then we should turn around here, because USD is more than ready to do so.

    I was watching the Marc Faber interview on CNBC linked from DavidDT's blog & he was talking about it. I'll put the link below in an edit as Disqus is dumping most of my posts with links at the moment.

    If SPX rises from here, my view is that we have two to three weeks max of upside before a significant correction begins. On the basis you put, USD will not necessarily follow it. You're right, it may not.

  • KidDisco
  • Squidman

    Excellent article Mole, thanks! The above link was not working so I went to ZH and had to find the pdf version to get it to open, which sometimes happens with Mac apparently.

  • springheel_jack

    After they've caught this one, bears may very well be extinct in the wild.

  • Kemal_1

    TW Waffle and Annamall

    EUR/USD keeps on consolidating. I am afraid it will not correct anymore. Given the chart technical situation, a break over the trend line may be imminent. I would take profits if you are still short.

    http://tinyurl.com/qel6wx

  • springheel_jack

    I think you're right. This looks like a good point to go long from 1.427.

    Does this mean that you are no longer expecting further correction in SPX?

  • springheel_jack

    You could do the same with SPY or DIA or QQQQ of course.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Thanks Kemal, I took the profit yesterday 🙂

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Good morning rats,

    Here's my new chart and target on ES for today.

    http://eminitrends.blogspot.com/2009/08/market-

    Comment and critics are welcome. 🙂

  • TheMacroEconomist

    And on Aug SPY I think someone out there is holding a 150,000 contract short strangle at 80/100. Those two huge OIs have been there at least as far back as late June – and the 100 call OI never dropped below 175,000 even when SPY dropped to 87 in early July.

    Anyway, SPX and SPY put open interests are always nutso due to their use by money managers as hedges. Idea being that if the general market turned down, their hot-stock picking ability should still outperform. Right now nearly all of those puts are out of the money as the market has gone higher and higher.

    Options expiration could get more interesting if the market drops a bit, so that some of those puts come into the money. Then those put writers might find themselves net a bit too “long” (positive delta) in a weakening market, putting them in selloff mode.

    Since SPY options are settled in SPY, not cash, those put writers ending in the money at the close a week from today get some nice SPY shares in their accounts before the open on Monday August 24th. Mark the day, could be an interesting one for the bears

  • Kemal_1

    Very glad to hear. I almost bet that EUR will break out today.

    Congratulations.

  • Kemal_1

    I think the SPX and EUR/USD are not very tightly correlated on a day to day basis. So EUR may very well go higher while SPX corrects. That's what I am looking for.

  • springheel_jack

    Interesting. Thanks.

  • annamall

    Thanks Kemal I am out too!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Getting the day setup nailed today will be crucial. The timing of the economic reports is staggered: CPI at 8:29, Industrial Production at 9:14, UMich Consumer Sentiment at 9:55.

    I'd personally like to see a good report set the open near the overnight highs – forcing the resistance test near 1018 early on. (IMO this is where the real battle on the tape needs to be fought.) If the market can't hold it up there, there's a great chance it rotates all the way through and tests the support around 1000.

    My alternate scenario is the one you have on the charts: a report sets the open near the premarket lows that catches the fancy of the buy-the-dip crowd. Especially if a subsequent report lands in the ballpark of estimates – yesterday's action around 10AM after Business Inventories is an example.

  • annamall

    I am thinking of going long EUR/USD, but waiting for the economic news first, hate to get in front of that train! LOL thanks for the heads up Kemal! 🙂

  • annamall

    Very Jack! Good morning

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    went short /6E 1.4297 for swing trade
    in addition to
    core position for USD – long /DX @77.72 from 8/3/9 and intend to hold

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    today's motivational quote:

    http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com/2009/08/art

  • annamall

    Good morning Squiddy! Could you email that to me please? 🙂

  • Bricks

    It looks like a “which breaks first” to me.
    http://screencast.com/t/qlNhitCI3b

  • springheel_jack

    Morning Anna,

    USD is having a very bouncy morning ahead of the news.

  • Kemal_1

    If anyone is interested in the EW pattern in EUR/USD, I see a leading diagonal. The same pattern is also present in the DXY (USD index), except that it points down (in agreement with the EUR/USD LD).

    http://tinyurl.com/p6x9ut

    That means EUR up, USD down.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Looks like analysts were spot on with CPI and Core CPI.

    Metals and oil easing a wee bit now

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    a chart for the silver bulls out there

    SLV daily: the upper trendline sits at about 15.05, which is the 78.6% retracement of what is labeled wave 1 down (it correlates with EWI's count). To me it appears to be a typical wave 2, which is wiping out and reversing the sentiment of wave 1.

    thoughts

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • annamall

    Morning Jack, I just went long, maybe a tad early, but I think Kemal is right. 🙂

  • springheel_jack

    Well, looks like it will be an interesting morning but I am called away. Hedged all my USD last night as I think USD will have a bad day.

    Mixed feelings about equities today.

    Catch you later.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Kemal I have the utmost respect for you and your work, but to me your thinking zebras, when horses are far more common. We'll know soon enough, heck maybe it'll even be a unicorn :>)

  • bergs

    I found this interesting.

    Stay out of chop w/ $TICK Volatility (& be notified of NYSE problems)

    Did a test chart to show this in TOS.
    http://screencast.com/t/otNaTmyiQbh

    the web site.
    http://www.precisioncapmgt.com/

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    first bad news for expected pullback in equities – El-Erian is bearish on the market…f…ng bond salesman

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • Kemal_1

    Don't get fooled by the apparent 5 wave impulse pattern. An X-ray revealed it isn't.

    😉

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    hey david, i've already seen your notes, but respectfully disagree until the upper trendline is taken out

  • annamall

    Chime in later Jack! 🙂

  • EDC

    thats cuz they made an announcement earlier in the week in regards to bonds. Must have a huge inventory that is insolvent and need to pawn it off on sheeple.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    you disagree with opinion I have not stated in that post 🙂
    I did not say what I think – if it will go up or down, I just observed what is going on 🙂

    IF I was trading silver today – I'd be short unless down wave canceled (damn, I just stated “opinion” 🙂
    http://screencast.com/t/5SLnpLeTr

  • EDC

    i'll take the other side of your USD bet. Welcome to the casino, only problem is that we are not the house…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    I was referring to your comment regarding questioning why people would be shorting silver when it has so much upside potential as indicated by your target

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    took off 1/2 /6E short at 1.4276

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    the best “correlation” quote I've seen:

    “Everything is everything and everything is nothing”

  • ItsOnlyPaper

    Hey TW, don't know what your running on there but my anti-viris doesn't like it. Probably an ad program.

  • innatedc

    Thanks Bergs….I saw that yesterday too and I couldn't figure it out on my TOS charts but then I realized I didn't change my TICK time frame to 1 min from my usual 15 min.
    And yes it is interesting….Bob English puts out great stuff, love his report.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    I have only 2 different type of ads, not sure why!!

  • innatedc

    Anyone taking any bets on Industrial prod numbers and its effect on market….seeing both a double bottom and double top in last nights ES charts….

  • GDII

    wow good for u. we have only 1 hr time difference now.
    could you teach me one more thing, how to stop trading and stop coming here? *_^

  • GDII

    that guy has too many blogs, and he got lost. lol
    try this http://trading-to-win.com/default.aspx

  • EDC

    “Led by a resurgent auto sector, U.S. industrial output rises in July for the first time since October, the Federal Reserve reports.”

    whoa… 11 mil units annualized is “resurgent” We used to sell 17-20 million with zero percent… now we have zero percent and cash for clunkers (which demand is dying on the program). cant wait for the 9 million anuallized for 2010 and we will see resilient.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Don't short EUR/USD just now. wait for market to show the real direction.

  • Me_XMan

    Watch for another white soldier stick today. That would setup one hot and wild week next week.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    That's what she said

  • ropey

    I see Mole is taking pictures of me again..meh

  • Me_XMan

    DIPSTERS moving in.

  • pierre66

    I wondered where you have been!

    Are you flying Northwest/Delta?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    This must be the big selloff everyone has been waiting for.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    u r funny man

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Don't count your chickens yet – watch the tape. 😉

    Still got UMich Consumer Sentiment report out in 5 mins.

  • GDII

    is today a steak day? or just another steak salad day?
    i think the consumer sentiment to be released in 5 minutes may give the answer.

  • colonel_bleep

    watch out for Michigan sentiment #'s

  • thelefteyeguy

    looks like Mole's channel for SPX is still intact…(another 6pts …waiting for the xtra point on the conversion)

  • TheMacroEconomist

    U.S. Aug. UMich consumer sentiment falls to 63.2.

    That and JC Penny's miss = sell.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    closed the 2nd 1/2 of /6e 1.4297 short 1.4247

  • molecool

    It's my diet – looking at the pic I can't keep anything down.

  • AudioTactics

    My alarm failed to ring and I woke up late – missed the opportunity to get short this morning…

    Was planning to sell SPY at 101.75 or better – kicking myself right now!

    Might try to buy SPY around 100.0 for a bounce but this looks like it could be a possible trend day.

  • grednfer

    So they sold first….
    Stocks and Oil
    Then Dollar rallied
    Then Gold sold off.

    I just sell puts…..I don't get too fancy.

    We do some directional stuff…..but not much.

  • ARJ

    Kemal_1,

    Your forcast is right on the money, market indeed made its high yesterday.

    Believe your target is at about 984 to 987 area in 3 – 4 day time frame, and you'd prepared to buy oil/energy among others.

    Are you sticking to the 980's SPX number to start to buy or would buy in combination with 3-4 day time frame too (high probability to retrace to around wednesday of option expiration week to mark the short term bottom?).

    Thank you for your insights!

  • LeTrader

    Have a good time in Japan, Fujisan! Would love to go there someday.

  • LeTrader

    Have a good time in Japan, Fujisan! Would love to go there someday.