The Bear Is Out For Blood
It’s going to be a bare bone post for me today as I’ve worked through the weekend (again) and am feeling the pinch a little. But things are transpiring swiftly across the board, so let’s proceed directly to the meat counter. Speaking of which, the bear is awake, and having hibernated several seasons he’s out for blood. So unless you run faster than 35mph you are officially breakfast and lunch. Now if you’re hailing from W. Virginia or Mississippi then you’re breakfast, lunch, and dinner 😉
Bitcoin apparently isn’t done scaring the children as the floor pattern that started forming last Friday was first put on notice and then invalidated earlier today. I would not recommend to go bottom fishing here just yet until we see a retested spike low at minimum.
Observe the continuous sequence of lower highs and lower lows. I don’t have a crystal ball but this formation does not yet look complete to me. And there are still a ton of U.S. crypto traders who are going to puke all over their breakfast this morning. Meaning there’s still meat on the bone for the angry bear.
Now here’s Stellar for comparison, one of the lower rated crypto currencies in circulation. Looks tame in comparison right? Well, looks on log charts can be deceiving…
Well, it’s almost been cut by 2/3 while BTC has been slammed by 1/3. XRP and ETH have been hit a lot harder than e.g. BTC or XMR. So if I was pair trading here I’d consider going long the biggest losers and hedging with BTC or XMR.
The sell off in equities may be nearing its temporary completion although it’s tough to say when exactly we’ll see a floor as we are now paying the cost of an effervescent multi-year bull market. No context to hang our analytical hats on. To me this current formation is still looking incomplete – so we may get a leg up followed by another down.
Of course we saw this coming three miles against the wind. I am sure you recall my various posts on the subject in mid to late January. Seems like the perma-bullish excesses of the past few months have finally come home to roost.
Evil Speculator Rule 462: When you see prominent politicians repeatedly take credit for a bull market then you know it’s time to quietly cash out your chips.
Our Dollar campaign is still hanging in there. Could go either way at this point but we are basically positioned near a major inflection point.
If 88.2 gives way then I expect more ugliness for the greenback. Let’s not forget that we are in a bear market and on a medium term basis everything continues to point down. The monthly offers a small glimmer of hope courtesy of the 100-month SMA but yeah – who am I kidding… it hasn’t been touched for years, so its validity is questionable.
Our USD/JPY campaign may reach an early conclusion but the fat lady has not yet sung. Holding my trail near 1R and let’s see if a bounce will materialize during the NYSE session.
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