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The Day After
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The Day After

by The MoleSeptember 19, 2013

Yesterday’s boundless exuberance seems to have dissipated overnight and we are back to an uninspired and slightly nervous market. Wednesday morning it was uncertainty that was the problem – today it’s the certainty that the Fed won’t be tapering but that opens a whole new can of worms. In other words, what next?

Generally speaking this is a pretty typical ‘day after’ especially given the 4.0 signal spikes on the Zero Lite which is suggestive of a veritable buying panic. Everyone’s taking a breather right now (no participation as evidenced by the flat signal) whilst trying to figure out what to do next. We have no technical context and it’s certainly not earnings or economic facts that are driving the market. At this point it’s basically the Fed’s printing press spiced up by the occasional middle Eastern conflict. So in a sense we’re operating in a vacuum.

If you’re long since the breach of the weekly NLBL (or much earlier from our original entry near 1665) then I recommend that you do nothing right now. Let ‘er run – nobody knows how far she’ll go and this is the time to simply sit and wait. If you recall – we do have a P&F price objective above 1700 and until we either get there or paint a sell signal I wouldn’t mess with it.

One lousy setup for my subs – hey remember, I don’t make the tape, I just report it. But it is a good one 😉

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • BobbyLow

    Now I know I’m losing it. I actually enjoyed watching price do its thing over the 5 Minute Period between 2:25 and 2:30 PM on /CL. It was like a Bull Fight! The Bull got a few gorges in at first and had the Matador down for the count. But during the last 2 Minutes the Matador got back up and stuck the Bull so many times that he ended Tits Up and ready to be served for dinner.

    Never want to get to emotional but that was fun to watch and I enjoyed it. I also don’t know what is different today than yesterday other than price regained some downside and that’s OK.

    What a fucking game! 🙂

  • Pervergence

    Yeah……bullshit….I’ve never been banned you fucking liar……been here longer than most if not all…..back in the Prechter days

  • Pervergence

    And here’s my old username….Tronacate

  • Tronacate

    To refresh your memory….

  • BobbyLow

    Now I know I’m losing it. I actually enjoyed watching price do its thing over the last 5 Minutes between 2:25 and 2:30 PM on Oil. It was like a Bull Fight. The Bull got a few gorges in at first and had the Matador down for the count. But during the last 2 Minutes the Matador got back up and stuck the Bull so many times that he ended Tits Up and ready to be served for dinner.

    What a game! 🙂

  • Tronacate

    Ahhhh…..back in the day:

    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=3764

    Elliott Wave Role Call:

    Green Scenario: Intermediate (5) down – we still need to breach 740 for this one to remain valid [the prior intermediate (3) wave low]. I’ve made it clear that I’m extremely hesitant to un-hedge myself before we hit that mark.

    Orange Scenario: Intermediate (4) triangle – E wave up – remains my all time favorite. We first drop out of this pesky triangle, then stall and rally back up just to irate some of the hobby bears. Then we skydive into the abyss from our drop zone at around 920.

    Blue Scenario: Intermediate (4) flat – C wave up – remains a strong contender, especially if we breach the triangle to the upside tomorrow. This would lead us to the Mount Everest of all sell the rip opportunities at an alpine altitude of 1020-1040 – bring your oxygen masks. If this happens I plan to pawn my own gold fillings to load up on massive amounts of SPY puts.

    Trust me rats, I’m as impatient as the next guy and would love nothing more than being able to cash out of those June puts. However, all good things take time and your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to leverage each market gyration to your maximum benefit. So far we’ve done a good job of anticipating where things will lead. But as you all know – the path is only clear in hindsight, which often leaves us to question our actions after the fact. Why didn’t I buy a ton of puts back in June? Why didn’t I unload end of November? Usually the answer is either greed or fear or outright ignorance of medium to long term market trends. It’s just too easy to pull the trigger just to make yourself feel good that very day. Regrets usually kick in when you realize you just cut your legs off. BTW, that happened to me with TLT on Friday – cut it too early and could have made double the profits (or more).

  • Ronebadger

    a lot of (waves) on that first chart (ahhh, 4 years ago)

  • Sean

    I’m guessing what’s next is some near-term profit taking (but not much), then we melt up as we wait and see how the next few landmines are going to be navigated… October has debt-ceiling & Q3 earnings (though Bernanke may have made earnings irrelevant), and of course there’s the ever-lurking “everything’s great, but we need another $100B” random EMU crisis… till then I’m guessing we re-test the what used to be support from the rally that started in Nov’12 (cyan line).. after that, who know’s, but that red line is support from the bottom in ’09…

  • Tronacate

    Oh….but Ronebadger….I have been banned so many times….lol

  • Schwerepunkt

    You ok tooth fairy? LOL.

  • Tronacate

    Pretty pissed…..blatant lie…..

  • Sean

    I don’t get why you don’t just program the RTV setups in NinjaTrader and do the math yourself? You would have your answer (and a sense of accomplishment for doing something yourself) and everyone here wouldn’t have to listen to you piss and shit about not getting other people’s work handed to you… as my Mom used to say, “if you had been doing your chores this whole time, instead of complaining, you’d be done by now”…

  • Tronacate

    As a note of interest…..this last 480 candle on /GC doesn’t appear to be an IP……the low is a .5 point lower on the candle…..

  • BobbyLow

    OK. Tron, you made your point. I suggest you take your argument off the air and have it directly with Mole via e-mail or whatever.
    These are the types of distractions that are not good for anyone.

  • convictscott

    You are overcomplicating it. We breached old highs and this caused a short squeeze, with the obvious place for a short to place his stops being taken out by the so called “good” news (which was a work of evil art) A short squeeze is of unknown duration since it operates as a positive feedback loop, with covering shorts buying and driving prices higher while bulls get long as well, driving prices further still, causing more short covering.

    Your trading results will improve (mine sure did) when you stop thinking about market direction and instead think in terms of favorable risk/reward opportunities. See below chart

  • Tronacate

    Sean….all I asked was a simple question that someone like FEARLESS would give a straight answer……could have just said “this is the most consistent setup”……is it that big of a deal??……if it is…..Ivan can say it…..but don’t give me this “spoon fed” bullshit…..because isn’t that what we get everyday with the setups??…..we were spoonfed waves and Geronimo for a LONG time…..

  • Tronacate

    Ok Bobbylow…..

  • Tronacate

    s /GC 30 min IP…..1/2 off 1R

  • convictscott

    Fantastic RTV buy setup on Oil now, break of the daily high.. The increase in volatility over the last 2 days is a strong predictor of increased volatility for the next week.

  • Tronacate

    Out…..flat

  • convictscott

    Do you realize how much work is involved in answering your question? I must have spent 8 hours a day backtesting with a pencil and paper for 6 months to work that out, and you have the nerve to complain when it is not handed to you on a platter. What body of knowledge are you contributing in return?

    Are you a paid subscriber, of either Mole or Ivan? Are you such a nice and pleasant chap that people would naturally go out of their way to show you their life’s work?

    I know Ivan in real life, not off the blog, and I wouldn’t ask him to hand over a significant body of work like that unless it was a trade. I would (and have, since I had exactly the same question in 2009) sit down and work it out for myself.

  • Sean

    Is a breach of today’s high a Failed SS for SPX? Or is the body too big?

  • Tronacate

    I was a paid subscriber until Mole pulled the “banned multiple times ” bullshit……

  • convictscott

    No the body is too big. Close in the lower half of the range AND upper shadow => twice the real body

  • Tronacate

    My son and I help train kids for football combines that could earn them hundreds of thousands in scholarships……what we charge??…..nothing…….
    So if you want to improve your or your kids bench reps at 225 , vertical jump, or shuttle or forty times……go work it out for yourself.

    And if this isn’t the “holy grail”….why are you treating it as such?

  • BobbyLow

    I’m still Short but am “at the ready” to Flip when the situation presents itself. Mole calls me a “One Trick Pony” LOL. But Oil has been a good fit for me. 🙂

  • convictscott

    Nothing is the holy grail, I just don’t feel like giving my hard work to a rude fuckwit.

    Now go away

  • convictscott

    One trick pony is FINE! What is your email, I have a question for you about Crazy.Ivan. I know you have been logging trades ,and I want to check off your logging against Mole’s automated logging to make sure it is correct. You could save me some time today 🙂

  • Tronacate

    Fine…..you’re not exactly a treat either…..

  • BobbyLow

    rwlowman77 Gmail

  • convictscott

    Mate you aren’t welcome here – why don’t you have a nice relaxing cup of fuck right off

  • convictscott

    check inbox 🙂

  • Tronacate

    Why don’t you come say it to my face?….mate

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually he just cancelled and cursed at me. I guess we’re better off 😉

  • convictscott

    I will miss him like the heavens miss the rain 😉

  • BobbyLow

    Got it.

  • SirDagonet

    As in, closing at or below the 8 (in an uptrend) then closing above it? What’s the relevance of the 21 in your example – that the candle not close (much) below it? Because in several instances the candles don’t get very close to it before the upward movement continues…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    wow. I missed the drama.
    seems out of character. he went manic a few days ago with the tidy apology.
    looks like it continued.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    and that’s how you do it.
    (focus on the lows, and ignore the highs with the trend to your back).

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    EUR/USD, 1.35
    something to keep an eye on going into October. (*Time, not price*)

    [older chart]
    http://s13.postimg.org/lxg19nbqf/scarecrow_EURUSD.png

  • convictscott

    The actual moving averages you use don’t matter much, it is the principle that the best risk/reward opportunities come on a pullback in a trend.

  • convictscott
  • convictscott

    Admittedly that is emotionally very difficult at the hard right edge of the chart

  • stovis

    My ZB.480 alerts today went from #23 at 6:59 AM EDT to #18 at 2:59 PM EDT. Then #19, the exit, at 131’07.

    What was the entry for that trade?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    OUCH – he’s an asshat AND an anti-semite? What a winning combo!

  • convictscott

    Add internet tough guy – he’s a triple threat!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Confirms to me once again that people do not appreciate anything given away for free. A strange part of human psychology I could never wrap my mind around. If he’s so interested in the details he should be begging Ivan for an opportunity to pay for it.

  • convictscott

    I just spent 15 hrs practicing the systems Gabriel Grammatidis taught me last week (discretionary 15 and 5 min FX systems) trading for tiny size until my win rate becomes acceptable.

    I made 3 mistakes today for a cost of -2.3R. A 1R loss which should have been a 1R winner from setting my stop too tight, a .3R loss which should have been a small profit from not exiting on a time based stop, and a 1R loss from a trade I should have skipped as it was not a perfect setup.

    I forgot just how difficult discretionary trading is, and I remember now why I went totally mechanical

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ‘mistakes’ as in slip ups or taken liberties you should not have taken? The problem I’m seeing is that his system sounds a bit loose and leaves room for interpretation/fiddling.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Check your email mate – I sent out a message about that yesterday.

  • neowave

    @molecool:disqus and scott

    I am confused… CI 480 eurusd
    do we need to take the long entry again? after being stopped out long and short?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did you get alert #10? Only short entry possible right now.

  • neowave

    but alert #9, doesn’t mean you should go long again.
    so if you get a long and short entry for a given 8 hour bar. You can only take the entry once. So maximum 2 entries per 8 hour bar

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, but you have a different session template than us, neowave. I assume you’re using the regular default session? Let me show you:

    The regular session template:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/evilspeculator/folders/Jing/media/7df01a49-1d6d-482e-8a86-f80bf97a7e03/00009605.png

    And ours:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/evilspeculator/folders/Jing/media/47e8a0be-4131-47d9-a75f-f4f431324547/00009604.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Remember ours rolls over at 7:00am. The normal session bar rolls over at 9:00am.

  • neowave

    Mole ok clear

    Just a question for sunday. You are also living in europe – spain. Do we have to check our email sunday evening?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The system runs automatically and FX starts ticking again Sunday 11:00pm here in Spain which is 5:00pm EDT.

  • Dyellowflash

    I have swapped my YM longs at breakeven 15641 to shorts. Going to treat it as a probably Downtrend day as stated in my previous comment when mkt breaks 15641… 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

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  • Peter Levchenko

    Likelihood of mistakes is increased when you are trading 5min/15min intervals like a junkie.:) trading longer timeframes gives u more time to assess and manage your positions which helps remove emotional reflexive reactions and also makes slippage a much less significant part of your return.