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The Die Is Cast
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The Die Is Cast

by The MoleMay 31, 2019

Wednesday’s breach below ES 2800 was the inflection point that effectively put us on the path toward 2700 and potentially lower. Quite frankly no big surprise there as the price action over the past few weeks was not indicative of a medium term trend reversal. The direction as of now remains down and unless you are positioned short there are few reasons for optimism.

At this point I am looking at two preliminary target ranges: The first is near ES 2700 which is psychologically important and currently coincides with the 100-week SMA. Unfortunately the latter is mostly academic in that it has only been fleetingly tested in the past two years, which of course is the long term curse of a low volatility bull market.

Of course if you draw a line below the recent series of spike lows on the weekly panel then it also happens to terminate around the ES 2700 mark. However given the change in volatility over the past year an overshoot into 2650 would not be uncharacteristic.

The volume panel seems to agree as we see quite a bit of historical activity around that range. So should we drop that low then I would definitely be on the lookout for a convincing floor pattern. As usual the Zero indicator will be your friend during turbulent times.

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Update on crude: I almost got stopped out but had wisely put my ISL < the big 60 mark. Although I’m not yet scraping 1R I am shifting my stop to break/even ahead of the weekend.

Helping A Friend Of A Friend In Need

Before we call it a week – here’s a chance to mark off your ‘good deed of the week’ in case you haven’t done it yet. Duc –Β a good friend of my quant buddy Tony (who has posted here on several occasions) was recently diagnosed with thyroid cancer.

So Tony snapped into action and created a gofundme campaign to get Duc the best treatment possible. Now it would mean a lot to both of us if you couldΒ drop by and put a penny in the box. It doesn’t have to be much and even a small contribution is appreciated. Thanks a lot in advance πŸ™‚


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks for the post Sir! (back to sleep)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    If we get above VWAP, you know the story.
    Happy month end, I’m going to sleep.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ad6f8df850151a5ebcf073917cca83b882b84b13c9fcd21814f405befe6fd86f.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Sleep…days like the last couple of weeks and following are what we’ve been training for….and now all this talk of sleep? No better way to miss the bus?

  • Dyellowflash

    Cleared out my shorts, left with like 7% on breakeven stops. Will reload if there is an opportunity. Dow 24860s, ES 2750 looks like its the price where bulls might get a breather.

  • Dyellowflash

    Great, after I Tp-ed its says here’s a window of opportunity to short. Oh well. That’s life πŸ˜‰

  • Dyellowflash

    Should be around 24900s with a 20 pts stop.

  • BobbyLow

    Well here’s some optimism. The next best thing to missing last night’s down move that’s still running this morning is to have no position at all. The Gap down that happened around 7 PM last night would have been difficult to chase and hold overnight unless you were already holding short. So it is what it is.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Upvote if you think Julie should bake me a raspberry cheesecake, for saving her USO triple bottom smart-ass.
    -GG

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/77a13f7dc9f4e29cfa096fdc21a3d2c61954d9ecdbde2fc0a0c3da6bb7bd964c.png

  • zzezzezz

    still long /ES @ 2777
    added some SPY calls lottery tickets just now

  • BobbyLow

    I got burned a little on oil this time around and took a small loss myself. The Overall market smells like a bear market, looks like a bear market and feels like a bear market. Need to be a little more careful tip toeing through the markets because there’s “Bear Poop” (as Julie might say) all over the place. πŸ™‚

  • Dyellowflash

    Right now at this point, bulls hold the edge unless 2755 is broken.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I forgot. Mark mentioned conflagration. hat tip to Mark.
    a large fire is unpredictable and can ruin plans in the fog of war.

  • zzezzezz

    got my stop @ /ES 2747

  • Mark Shinnick

    Wow…the whole bull internal game isn’t even in play for some time now….its not like we are ranging anymore….we’ve moved on.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Dyellowflash

    not sure what you mean, but i am still holding shorts. but the situation is i wont add anymore, since it looks like the ball is in the bull’s court until proven otherwise.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Looks like your calculations are based in more-normal oscillations. That’s what’s we are breaking-away from to move into new trend.

  • Dyellowflash

    yeah, i had always remain bearish for the past 3 weeks. But i am a guy who trade with a 25pts dow SL in this sort of 400 points/day mkt, so my entry points are more impt than my directional bias.

  • Mark Shinnick

    nearing jnug objective.

  • Dyellowflash

    Being proven otherwise now. That big 5m bearish candle! Now there is no chance I will reduce any shorts already. Its either my SL or my TP target. Now all that’s left is 2755 supporting the bullish side.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Widen scope of perception to encompass HY, RE, PM. Global capital is shifting, but only seen in fits and spurts that alter the normal equity true ranges.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL – Never sure about anything about the markets. It just feels like a bear trade right now where moves are all over the place with the overall result being down. If all of a sudden we get a “China Deal” announcement then we’ll probably get at least a temporary massive upside move. But I don’t have a clue what happens after that. In the meantime, I’ll probably just continue to day trade and keep my capital safe at night and on weekends.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I forget what year it was , but I remember some heated discussions on this forum.
    that was before we sorted out all of those lenses.
    Some were gunslingers and others were swing traders.
    ah, those were the days.

    edit: most of my capital is safe and out of the rain as well.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I don’t do a lot of PM trades, but this general signaling needs to paid attention to.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    general signaling, can you share a graph ?- not sure what you mean.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its a statistical model.

  • Dyellowflash

    Whoever is long might want to consider getting out soon. The zero is slowly turning against longs. Unless u wish to bet that it will be an uptrend day, then u can ignore the zero.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    A guy your age?
    You should have cool 3D shit graphs of statistics! or someone who can do it for you.
    ;-D

    https://www.unistat.com/guide/pics/plot-of-3d-functions-1.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…its been a time-available problem last several years, I’m still stuck in dbase type codes.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, I think we talked about that, last year. or was it the Year before?

    https://i.redd.it/xzdjvs031r7y.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    Short TLT via TBT at 29.96/TLT 131

  • Mark Shinnick

    All the above, exactly….arrested development.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX 25.28 day only

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks to everyone who donated a few bucks to Tony’s gofundme campaign. Much appreciated!!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice hit Mark!

  • Dyellowflash

    yeah, i am vigilance that gap down days can lead to bullish reversal, but nothing good from zero 5m all the 8 pts up and that 8 pts up move looks very weak. So still holding to shorts from yesterday and added at 24970s with a tight 30 pts SL. Last trade of the week. Win and Supper or Lose and early Sleep for me.

  • ridingwaves

    the last open gap on SPX is 2718…..2756 is longer term cycle line….if it stays below….the 2718 comes into focus and might be hit in one day….

    ridingwaves 17 days ago
    for all the bears talk, they sure whisper when the goal is within reach….. 2755 is still in play….maybe not today….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Heads-up for PM’s

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I was totally shocked the US Dolla’ was crushed last week.
    But I can still see 100 being a target. Look Left.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f9f26d2ef07a2446a85a6ebd308cafcdfbe16741b7c1ef5c62d6bbdd0d52b451.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Little bull flag broke down… faking out the other side for a change… It is still early but looks promising for Moi

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6ccfee6cd8a676ae8fa7612f63aac854c7f5ff9680d2e3e447b5c9ce42a89914.jpg

  • Dyellowflash

    Usually there is not much hope trading against the Zero by holding on to longs, unless u r betting on an uptrend day today. It might still be bullish at the EOD, but that’s a good 10 pts difference from the high of day and 3Rs for me.
    I posted quite a lot of my trades upon my return to trading the US indexes here simply as a form of gratitude to Mole for offering the Zero to retail traders. That’s probably the best indicator available out there as far as I know.
    To cap it off, zero got nothing much on that 10 pts down move either, so I shall close out 90% of shorts filled today and call it a day with 3Rs. So I am left with 7% from yesterday and 10% from today. Chill time! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f1351635e478b474c969d541f4b394917aef89999858b48a4590f8d3b0f0377d.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Nice call, you still looking for a rally to new highs?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV Another advance Breaks above the upper down trend line of falling wedge Moving stop up to today’s low 13.60 Next hurdle a bullish close above 13.71 JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    NIce Job Julie. You stuck to your guns.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK SPX 2750 could be the low .. Going against the general consensus again.A reversal candle on Monday will confirm
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ya… I see they are fighting here (as usual) broke up over my 1 minute pattern. I am up and holding just to not count things out but I expect a rally off the lows to not create a solid weekly candle

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Mark Shinnick

    “the low”…. That is a bias, watch out for things like that.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mark you must have targets are your trading blind Not biased at all .. Price action Mark
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Oh… it can keep going…. 50/50. NO crystal balls out there

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, we had that out a couple years back; lines are just …..lines.

  • ridingwaves

    shoved ATH thinking into waiting area for now…..
    would prefer for the gap to be closed and then review….this is a good time for down move…with fall opening up election campaign….they will keep us sheep complacent then….now is the time to gun for overshoot per mole musings in post…..Bears need to rogaine their cajonoes….

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have been faked out by some little intraday stab patterns so while I see lines, set ups, possibilities, I am up and so holding and seeing the day out. Little red rt now…. something for everyone today

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Possible selling exhaustion but I don’t trust it ahead of the weekend:

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hey Chief I have a problem with the go fund me Can I send a donation to you and you forward to friend ?
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am exhausted and I am not even selling

  • Darkthirty

    Been conditioned by the manipulation and random market gyrations. The bots could run ES up to 3000 before the close, and I don’t believe anyone would be surprised……

  • Mark Shinnick

    We’ve had some pretty good take-away about the global scene this past coupe of weeks. From a trend-following perspective, seems important.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Has a change in secular trend indeed happened? …if my general question.

  • Darkthirty

    If we were all looking at the same timeframe, there might be consensus. What we have here is reminiscent of 5 blind guys fondling an elephant…………. Symmetry, if this is a correction, gives ME a 2740 target

  • Ronebadger

    JSTFR

  • Mark Shinnick
  • BKXtoZERO

    Out TVIX at 26.02, ES support (possible from earlier today at 2753.4, so 0.80 on today’s large position and a couple bucks on the small position. I am off today so calling it a weekend here….. Long TBT today and DRV from 6.5. Have a good un all

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    D30 I also have a target 2739
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Could be..the new world order.

  • Darkthirty

    EOM exp ES options are 5 pts ATM. 10 pt move is 2X. How many people are gonna dump, and not hold over the weekend? And what kind of mind set would it take to buy now?

  • zzezzezz

    well, i’m exhausted from all the selling! does that count? πŸ™‚

  • zzezzezz
  • Dyellowflash

    I saw everyone dumped their shorts just now, so i dumped whatever i had left at the previous lows as well. 0 positions. Happy weekend!

  • Darkthirty

    Good question! Next question, how do I profit from it?

  • Mark Shinnick

    JSTFR

  • Mark Shinnick

    How do you like HY lost support…while drv down? Bass-akwards opportunity?
    Big friggin joke that any better bond can be sheltered by RE.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Funny but I just added moar DRV before I saw your post

  • Darkthirty

    Nice! Holding will stress you out… Unless its a lotto ticket straddle

  • Mark Shinnick

    As I will myself. The charade can all end faster than can ever become positioned.

  • Darkthirty

    LOL

  • BKXtoZERO

    I take it as a last frantic obnoxious squeeze

  • Darkthirty

    ES VWAP @ 2761. PPT got the balls to give us a green close?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    not looking too good. might see 2722-ish first….

  • Mark Shinnick

    See what happens, I guess.

  • Darkthirty

    Got money on that ? or are you just postulating?

  • zzezzezz

    postulating. i’m currently long… πŸ™

  • zzezzezz

    I hate the VIX today

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What’s the problem you’re running into? If you send me money I would have to declare it as income (and pay tax on it), so I would prefer if you could do it directly.

  • Darkthirty

    No worries….it’s a crapshoot anyway! I’ve seen 12 ES pts up a minute before. From 10:30 there 2- 618 retraces, Should head down big, but………

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That statement is wrong on several levels. What you probably mean is that you don’t understand the VIX’ moves today which is causing a sense of frustration. Usually a good moment to step aside and wait it out.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well the ramp attempt died in its cradle. Trend will continue lower until further notice.

  • BobbyLow

    Curious as to what time frame you’re trading? I’ve been experimenting trading anywhere from 5 Minute to hourly charts and with each time frame the dynamics of momentum and trends within a trend change with the exception of VWAP which remains the same.

  • BKXtoZERO

    The Ayatollah of TVIX agrees…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/73eff2122bce6f539ef6f7773ee9decfedb3838f4b25a303c94560c8c7b6a06d.png Not sure if anyone has noticed BUT this correction different (tamer) than previous correction beginning last year end of September Selling momentum (candle size) and lighter selling volume. Check it out and you will see .. Much different in intensity JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    Yes sir! Thank you for reading my mind πŸ™‚

  • zzezzezz

    I usually trade 5 min charts. Of course I “zoom out” for the bigger picture, trends, etc.

  • Darkthirty

    1-2 1-2 ?

  • Sp00nman

    Yes, it’s much more orderly which some people are saying is reminiscent of December of last year. VIX has had a very steady climb rather than sharp spikes on this pullback so far. Looking at the zero also looks much more steady and not panicky. We’re at 3:1 negative for DVOL/UVOL today and opened much lower. We tend to gap down lately and the strong selling dissipates steadily intraday.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…any confusion is no trading plan.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief Not so sure about that .. 2750 – 2748 could be it ..selling has diminished See ya on Monday Chief and Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    HY new local lows.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time check

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks. I’ve been trying to figure out why you’ve held your long position through all this downturn especially with 5 minute charts. I’m not criticizising you just trying to learn something here. You were doing so well trading in and out, long and short with fast turn arounds. Did that wear you out and now going a different way? I’m using strictly momentum and today’s price action with actual live trading my hourly sucked. I just did a paper test on my 5 minute and that would have sucked too.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    OK Chief I will try again
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    14:57

  • zzezzezz

    Agreed 100%. I have a plan, however, it doesn’t include watching the VIX as part of it. I occasionally take a look at it for any correlation. I definitely don’t understand its action today.

  • BKXtoZERO

    often a warning both ways

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its been trending since May 23, so something about that recognition could be modeled into the mix.

  • Darkthirty

    Need 12 pts in AH

  • zzezzezz

    I was targeting 2777 due to 200 SMA, and also viewing a break of 2750 as MORE trouble. It held 2750 (at least for today’s session), so my stop is set below that. If it breaks 2750 then I think we’re heading to 2722 then 2700 maybe.

  • zzezzezz

    Dang…. /ES just touched 2750….

  • BobbyLow

    Understood. Thanks.

  • Darkthirty

    Was that your stop?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hey BK This chart with simple moving averages may help yo in your trading TVIX 50 – 80 – 160 sma’s Monday a drop below the 160 sma .. Well you get the picture .. and watch the confluence of the rising 50 and or https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2409a6e32720ef003db1298c531cb686789a583a6e7395bb97833d3cbd97cc6a.png 80 sma’s I have been nailing it JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Like I stated in a reply to our Chief below … Not so fast as this could be a tradable bottom 2748 SPX As you can see the weekly 55 ema has been important when oversold STOCHS 5,3,2 Everyone Have A Great Weekend ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5234aac13d0fb745736c5422a7a36bf73a655c3abb7debd6099725fbc5360e99.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    hard to happen when RSI is at 45’ish.
    now 2014 October, RSI created a ‘V’ under the RSI 50, but things were much much more bullish back then.

    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it *could* happen, but I’d much rather see the BPSPX melt on down to 45, before stopping.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34026304719

    edit: just LOOK at that momentum.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG . Last night I recalculated levels 2748 is a Level 1 Below 2748 are very important Level 2’s 2740 and 2650
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, last night you posted a SPX chart with many support lines. How many of them were crossed today? all of them? maybe one is around 2650?

  • zzezzezz

    I’m sure as soon as I post my stop “THEY” will conspire and move the market just to take me out…..

    My stop is 2747. At 2742 I’ll flip to short.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    do what I do.
    place a dual trade.

    a goldfish ‘come get me’ bait trade, with an opposite direction order.
    if they both fill, you are in like FLYN.
    Muwahahaha.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Wow….there….just weren’t quite enough lines I guess?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    don’t underestimate the power of blonde. she can draw a lot of lines.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ok, that sounded mean. didn’t mean too.

    I recreated the chart. Switching from weekly to daily.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ce525bbe7fa5456c6a6ebe7b6a57169fa459b25fdcaa72c900a79ccdf479feb0.png

    2721.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    2650 is yet another double line support.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    What’s the word for the week GG ? COMPENDIUM ! ! Daily chart corroborates the weekly Also All STOCHS Levels oversold GG 2748 !
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6cf5405a4cead1bab530c4d2984de61a44b061da9896b8214a69d66b0c8fccd3.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EDIT miss type 2748 is correct
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that Full STO is stuck Coug, throw it out. useless. get it off the chart!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    When all 3 line up GG Sorry there Mr AZ !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Also weekly short term oversold Ya Gotta Believe GG !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I Believe. I believe in the Holy GRAIL.
    throw away your 21, 55, 233.
    It’s all about the Eighty-NINE.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p91764876433

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY after hours holding support .. Futes holding also .. Too much sun already GG ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    After hours? It’s FRIDAY. don’t they shut the futes DOWN?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ok, well. that’s it. Time for my slave drive commute home.
    Have a good weekend Y’ALL.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    My Bad GG Yes !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG A level 2 at 2718 also
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes GG I know but 2650 is too obvious. Curve ball before then
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys NAAIM weekly going below the lower https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/46e56fbe3151db1bb82f2c9a0fed1d9353c39692e412bcc9d78abe3eb37ebd90.png Bol Band suggests buying the dip JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys $CPCE (equity only P/C ratio) the % difference between it’s 5 and 60 ema’s very very close to 10% where a bounce can occur JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys $CPC (total P/C ratio) The 3 sma above 1.2 suggests a bounce JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys $CPC (total P/C ratio) 3 sma above 1.20 suggests buying the dip JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys $NYMOT at – near or below – 200 suggests a buying opportunity JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys in a chart and comment in a post below I outlined that the present correction does not have the intensity( selling momentum and selling volume) as the previous correction beginning end of September of last year
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guy $VIX not quite at upper Bol Band but more importantly very very close to 10% above it’s 10 ema where a bounce can occur JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2af26bc1b222071a1b41802676a854af071622cf858d38e3b79c85c76f14dd94.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys $OVX ($vix for oil) Inverted to track USO and oil Extreme fear and at level for capitulation I have targets USO 10.70 – 10.80 and 10.26 JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys UUP ($USD ETF) What have we here guys a possible triple top https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9053be3613003556801af13159bcb61cecf028c38d7a0f93deae5aedb345d49c.png Weekly chart going back 5 years. Slight triple negative divergence RSI Also MACD negative divergence. Observe the volume pattern the last 2 years i.e declining volume compared with the increasing volume on previous sustained advances The greenback pulls back at this level Gonna be nice for PM’s JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks Julie

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Oh GG .. The evil empire INTC has been consolidating on 42 support for the last 10 trading days and what has the market been doing ? Market has been going down and INTC showing some relative strength.Overbought weekly and daily charts It’s a buy with a bullish close above 44.28 resistance. Targets (1) 46.18 (2) 49.36 If the market pops on Monday … Well.. You get the picture. Then we short the “POOP” out of it !
    JULIE

  • gold_gerb

    Test

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I’m tracking it. 3 to 7 weeks under my moving average. If price can’t get above by then? Well this dinosaur may be ready for the tar pit. at $30 the dividend would be a 4% yield. Not enough for an investor if future semiconductor sovereignty is at stake!
    -GG

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/692d0f8ba96d1c178f7719d4f9e31e25e93fb9eca84c174800523469f09eda85.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Refrigerator door now closed 75 today and next week even warmer. The rivers are high with snow melt runoff. Rivers whose headwaters are mountains with snow are typically cold. Today a slight mishap with husband on the Gallatin River. I slipped off a rock in rather shallow water and Brrrr ! No change of clothes so we went home.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    well, there’s yer problem.
    put on a swimsuit top, and some waders.
    problem SOLVED. Even a city slicker knows that.

    https://i.pinimg.com/236x/6f/31/cc/6f31cca6ae63eec8f3634ad6ce533f5f–gone-fishing-fishing-girls.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Intel is a dinosaur It’s like IBM 10 years ago. Too big to grow anymore. Downhill from here on. NOW GG I have been following AMD and it has held up fairly well with this present correction.Relative strength with it’s peers. Market turns around we probably can trade AMD fairly well
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Time for sleep I hope you have had a nice weekend See ya later
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    When we started Mastertimer in the last century, we got 50 million under management after about 3 or 4 months.

  • BobbyLow

    Hey Julie here’s a family from Montana who has a fond opinion of Boston and one particular New England Patriot player. This family is from Missoula, Montana. You have to scroll down to the second article on this link but it’s a nice read.

    http://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4817607/patriots-patrick-chung-keeps-jack-strong-promise-to-montana-boy

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    If you consume chocolate, you’re more likely to win a Nobel Prize.

    or not.
    http://www.martingrandjean.ch/nobel-chocolate-correlation/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Say ..”I Love You Trevor”..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BL Thank You for the heart warming story. Go Pats ! Somethings that very few people are aware Special Olympics was started in Bozeman MT by former Montana St University Football Coach Sonny Holland in the stadium of the MSU Bobcats Mothers Against Drunk Drivers (MADD) had it’s inception in Bozeman also. A nurse lost her daughter hit by a drunk driver waiting for a school bus and she started MADD Thanks Again BL for a story with a happy ending
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I love chocolate covered cherries … I can eat the entire box in one sitting . Now I am not saying if I do or not ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Check your backside. That 36 may be a 37 now.
    LOL.

    Switch to Dark Chocolate, it’s your only hope.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    You realize, this thing is on a 50 day cycle?
    and the last one Inverted!!

    (the lows may be in, a sneaky double bottom average)
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/da841ddb8e274c977801832aad69db60eb21f80c97342b09803878d9cf72601a.png

  • HD
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    HWB?
    ..or a few more days of scare the little children.

  • HD

    Hey GG. just noting the symmetry

  • HD

    For those that think the VIX or Yen, or anything for that matter, leads SPX just take a mental note of May 2019. Oh and always keep an eye on CL_F, OIL!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    women, Yes.
    this chart? not seeing it.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD been playing the pullback fairly well Nailed $COTTON and SLV too PM’s look good here and the miners
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • HD

    South MB is a whole new level of beach living. Highly recommend. Sounds strange but it’s secluded from the masses and very chill. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9dbfe9d12a5d37b074cd0619279ac47d8ead209d71532773b5a91aa97962d450.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    MB?

  • HD

    mission beach

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Have a nice watchlist for the next rally and follow thru AND Everyone thinks that Julie just shorts ! LOL! Watch list (1) CII (2) PODD (3) CSII (4) AMD
    JULIE

  • HD

    awesome girl! Summer rally on deck SPX?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I think you pounce. too soon!

  • HD

    160 points C=A

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I’ve been there. the only way it’s secluded is limited parking.
    ARGGGGGH.

  • HD

    there is zero parking in the south part. Primo. Have to have a house.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    IMO Yes HD Down below I showed some technicals(charts) and a bounce expected shortly. Friday’s dump caught me off guard as did everyone else I had covered my existing short the previous day I have targets USO on this pullback (1) 10.70 – 10.80 (2) 10.26 We will see
    JULIE

  • HD

    2732 is trading!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • HD

    I’m a fiscal conservative, we VRBO’d. πŸ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Watch 2717
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I had a hunch.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPENER&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72893403905

    Listen to the Gerb next time. uh-huh.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Family back from Godzilla movie. Hearty Thumbs up. “fun ride”.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes Dad !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    hey, don’t get mad at me because you fell into the water.
    LOL.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Spoos open update.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/80f7a926a961515aa4d2aab8cdb4a607ce7279dd695598765f53bcb62b47200c.png

    edit: I’m thinking an attempt to close the gap, will move price up to the fan line. A bearish last kiss goodbye would make an EPIC week, and fresh horror lows. Don’t salivate too much, RSI sub 30 signals an end-game. We shall see.
    -GG

  • HD
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Not mad at all Was able to get out very close to B/E If I would have lost no one but myself to blame GG
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Same situation with the rally from December 26th … Should have been a pullback at least 38.2% Now possibly gonna pay for not having a pullback … Went too far too fast !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Love your trunks GG LOL! Need a tan GG ! Ever think about Hawaii in winter ? Get with the program GG !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    no No NO!
    That’s Tim Knight.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    no No NO ! Jim Cramer ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I asked my husband about Tim Knight He said it was The Slope Of Hope Now I get the bigger picture
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Can you imagine holding calls at this point?

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/FMcQ9qdYBUI/maxresdefault.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yes, it’s the name that cannot be named on this forum.
    I think Mole and Tim were best buddies, and had a falling out.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I think you need to readdress your vehicle bag.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgHW2DMyLqw

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    They be bag holders GG We just wait for a strong reversal candle at support. A hammer or bullish engulf .and a follow thru. We be patient GG
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Same as Dec 26 a strong reversal candle similar to a bullish engulf with volume
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG and Guys I have Level 2’s at 2740 – 2736 – 2729 – 2717 – 2699
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    somewhere Asia/Europe will come in and buy this POS?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Merkel of Germany had a high level official in her administration resign this weekend .. Could be a catalyst for the dump in Euroville ?
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    it’s a month early but couldn’t that Mario “believe you me guy” step in?

    oh wait a minute? he’s a dead duck by October!!!

    https://www.ft.com/content/f7b85f7e-838a-11e9-9935-ad75bb96c849

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG We will do whatever it takes ..! Amazing how they can talk the market up.An item in my husband’s notes They will come out with some bad news to enliven the bears to create more and larger short positions … Then a complete turn around with better than expected BS Then a short covering rally creating a positive feedback loop which is early bears covering and early bulls buying .. then late bears covering.. then late bulls buying Works every time GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Amen.
    that just happened last week(s) with the trade war thing.
    There was a big bounce, and they lied. Straight out lied!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    May 16th.

    Trump to Delay Auto Tariffs

    Following a cooldown in trade rhetoric between the United States and China on May 14, with President Trump referring to the tariff dispute as a β€œsquabble,” markets had multiple reasons to rally on Wednesday.

    Per a CNBC report, the Trump administration was planning to defer tariffs on automobile imports by as much as six months. Such developments led to a broad-based rally in automobile stocks. Shares of Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) gained 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    If you were an Auto investor, that Ford stock went from 10.40 to 9.40.
    10% drop.
    good luck.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    JULIE,
    remember the multi colored /YM chart?

    Boo-Yah.
    “Draw a line, and the Market can hit it”

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/247b7cbbf6ae249004308896ef9c491d3c5ff9c02a3350b70eb3b95f5e9c0ea8.png

    EDIT: RSI at Extreme, WARNING – WILL ROBINSON”

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The completion of a short covering rally is a great short How do you discern the completion or near completion ?.Actually very easy to distinguish No follow thru. A few days of an advance on weak or decreasing volume then a stall .. Then down again undercutting the previous low
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Always extend trend lines .. Good job GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    24,666 – an occultic signal?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yup GG the 24 is just one inch below my waist measurement .. Works every time !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Monday is Month Begin.
    I expect a Massive, UP rally. Creating RightShoulder.
    it’s an ugly H&S if you want to see one.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Complex H & S Pattern i.e. 2 left shoulders and 2 right shoulders
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    sure.
    I mock at the Market. time for a break.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    disqus messing up ! JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Grizz mentioned the next leg down on USO.

    looking at CL, this could be it.
    unorthodox fan placement. but you can see the contacts points multiple times.

    -GG
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ad48ebd2a81bd23f4ef11a10dab9029cb96ccd91151dd2fb10df8b5f994a2fad.png

    edit: I would be *extremely* surprised if it goes farther down US hours tonight. My gut says look for reversal indicators. Like Slopers rejoicing!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    everybody talking tonight.
    DISQUS hosed me yesterday. Many years ago I signed up without an email. They yanked me over the weekend. Yes, all 37,724 messages lost. Gold_Gerb is no more. Welcome to Gerb 2.0 “gold_gerb”.
    πŸ™

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG He is with me now He says to bring up the weekly Bol Band and it meets closely the lower fan line
    JULIE and GRIZZ

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I got your message, but you’ll have to post it.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    A chart GG ? Is this post being seen ?
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    OH NO!! The archives are fried??

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    As far as I know. The remarks were set as private.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yes. post a chart. Bollingers have many settings.

  • Darkthirty

    2741.5 iv of 3…mebbe

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Here ya go GG .. I posted earlier of targets USO 10.70 – 10.80 and 10.26 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/492f49ac1be1565fa0607f805d838963aa79c7f890abda626b048012a5288f0e.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi D30 I posted down below in a reply to GG my targets and 2740 is one
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Darkthirty

    : P

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I forgot my password and using Julie’s I have it somewhere as I have not posted in many years
    I would like to thank you GG Mole and everyone for being nice to her I know she is overly enthusiastic but she is sincere
    You can’t argue with success as she has almost tripled her beginning account that I started her with
    Very shortly we will be going on vacation and I will make sure she does not post giving you guys a rest snic…
    Her best friend and trading partner CYD will probably fill in for her CYD is great and does exceptionally well
    Thanks again everyone for showing kindness to Julie
    GRIZZ

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Oil,
    that is one HELL of a drop.
    even with a HWB rebound, that amber envelope line will be a ceiling around 56

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fa29796cc3a0b33f7f236bb6ada5deb326188ef7500bc1382d8dbd808fc333d4.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    (GG Waves)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    she does owe me a raspberry cheesecake!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Real quick CYD is a hottie brunette You won’t have to deal with a blonde like I do every day
    GRIZZ

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    oh thank GOD. I could use a break. CYD?
    isn’t that like a dengue fever vaccine thing?

  • zzezzezz

    I’d rather be on that boat than “underwater” already for the month of June!
    (May was a blast though!)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    CYD is pretty sharp.You would not believe what they come up with.Both have the mindsets and patience for the trading game. One compliments the other. I no longer need to look over their shoulders Let them both run with the ball.
    GRIZZ

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Starting a Harem. I hear that happens with piles of money.
    good job!
    (wink wink)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    thank you for the like.
    It was looking like a break higher, but NO.
    like BL says “let the candle finish painting”.

    that was the longest 15 min of my life.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c3262c2b54fa4a267aac57440c1de75a299c03e35af3ec47629fc29cca4d37b8.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    CYD has a pretty quick wit too and she will throw it right back at you like Julie does. I have read the exchanges between you and Julie. and CYD won’t back down either Priceless
    GRIZZ

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    hey thanks for the ‘another leg down’ comment. Her USO stubbornness wore me out! try to save a person, mercy.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG We have all been burned by not letting the candle finish. I am guilty of that too and BL is correct “Let the candle finish painting”
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    2744.25 nother option

  • Darkthirty

    Prefer K-9 jelly for lube

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    TMI

  • Darkthirty
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    and that’s why I keep my own spreadsheets, on my own dam computers.
    call me Crazy. I don’t care!

    http://clipart-library.com/images/ziXoxpnBT.jpg

  • Darkthirty

    You start dating women in there 50s, you have to order it in 5 gallon buckets!

  • Darkthirty

    ALL my important files are in hard copy…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    DOW 30,
    I didn’t like them in my personal March review.

    could you pick me up some Depends at Walgreens?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WBA&p=W&st=2008-06-02&id=p79259471721

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Maybe TSLA will hit $150 by tomorrow.
    Muwahahaha

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&p=W&st=2008-06-02&id=p30858691053

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG Julie like Uncle Warren Investing in a company not showing profit NOOOOO !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    for the record, I’m not too excited about this switcheroo.

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/73/f4/e7/73f4e7b902ac42497c4de81b1c8e6748.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Cyd is great .. You guys will like her ! Believe me !
    JULIE

  • Dyellowflash

    I just sum up my opinion based on my ability with the zero. On Friday, I was shorting for the whole day. In my trading system, zero made 2 long signals and 2 short signals. I entered on the 2 short signals, profited and took profit near end of day. However, the 2 long signals made were actually stronger than the short signals. Even though they were invalidated by the price action on Friday, totally KO by the opening gap down, the fact that zero made 2 long signals on my system cannot be ignored. I might go long IF new short signals made by zero on Mon NYSE session got KO by bullish price action.

  • BKXtoZERO

    TSLAtoZero

  • BKXtoZERO

    she is loved…………

  • BKXtoZERO

    Short the rate cut bounce

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Try this stuff. Highly recommended.
    https://www.yesyesyes.org

  • Dyellowflash

    Regardless of above consideration, since zero is not open for business yet, I am shorting a 40% position with a very tight stop at Dow 24750s. SL above 80.

  • Dyellowflash

    Keep our eyes open for the down sloping channel. If premarket hrs today is a fake down then reverse, then it will go up and bust through the upper channel. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5d843dd57d2cdde953c9aaaa242df971a23e4d5f4c0e64cc442cc40783ea0834.png

  • Dyellowflash

    I am stopped out. That’s fast. Lol. What a waste of time. Should just wait until NYSE opens to sort them out properly πŸ˜‰

  • Darkthirty

    Thanks