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The Eagle Has Landed
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The Eagle Has Landed

by The MoleMarch 12, 2015

My apologies for the late post today – it took me a while to get set up this morning as the storage place with all my equipment is all the way out in Los Feliz. And half way there I realized that we idiots had forgotten the key for the padlock, which added another 30 minutes to the trip. But I’m all set up nowย with my gorgeous Apple Cinema display and a surprisingly fast Internet connection. As you recall I already shifted my circadian rhythm over the past week and in general it feels like I never left Los Angeles. It’s amazing how quickly the brain re-adjusts to a familiar environment. Before you know it you’re cruising all over L.A., cursing at slow drivers of a certain ethnic group, A/C and stereo cranked up, sending hapless pedestrians diving for the sidewalk. You know – Los Angelino style ๐Ÿ™‚

LA_March_sunset_1

Here’s a snapshot I took last night here in Hollywood on Beverly right at the tail end of a gorgeous sunset. Today’s going to be hot – somewhere around 89 and it’ll breach the 90 mark tomorrow. I love the dry heat hereย and couldn’t be happier.

2015-03-12_UVOL_DVOL

Alright, let’s talk markets. As Scott pointed out – accumulation was in the works yesterday as evidenced by the NYSE UVOL/DVOL ratio. Buying pressure was solid and constant all the way into the close.

2015-03-12_zero

The Zero painted a pretty pronounced divergence on the hourly panel yesterday. Today’s session however (and yesterday) was driven by minimal momentum/participation suggesting prop desks and bots were running this.

2015-03-12_SPX_VIX

On the SPX/VIX panel the ratio is leading pure price and I think this could easily squeeze higher.

2015-03-12_spoos_update

So let’s look at the daily E-Mini which bounced at the 100-day SMA and the lower 25-day BB. The latter was actually the one which has been observed in recent history and the two together offered a nice opportunity for the bulls. Had I posted yesterday I would (like Scott) suggested to lighten up your short exposure here.

2015-03-12_LT_spoos_update

Long term we also had the 25-week SMA and a NLSL at 2036.5 – both of which I pointed out on Tuesday.

2015-03-12_NQ_update

The NQ is lagging the spoos which is interesting as it’s been the more bullish index recently. As you can see the weekly NLBL at 4286.25 has held up nicely so far.

2015-03-12_silver_setup

Alright, let’s talk setups – we have beautiful ones on our roster today. Here’s silver which I love short here until 15.565 where I’ll be long 1/2R, adding another 1/2R above 15.66. Frankly I would be happy either way – short or long and I have no directional bias.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs – please step into my Californian holiday lair:

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That’s it – see you guys tomorrow. FYI – while I’m here on the West Coast for the coming three weeks I will most likely post only once a day. Unless I fall out of bed very early – meaning near 6:00am. And that franklyย happens rarely ๐Ÿ˜‰

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • BKXtoZERO

    First Post….. Leaches are like Sneetches on the beaches. Welcome back to USSA.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    all set up now with my gorgeous Apple Cinema display
    more videos?

    a fabulous sunset for Cali. but no match for Phoenix!

    FEB 23.
    http://www.air-and-space.com/20150223%20PHX/20150223%20PHX%20DSC_0802%20Sunset%20l.jpg

  • Scott Phillips

    I have also landed and this is where I am. Spare a thought for Ivan the hurricane bearing down on Vanuatu just made cat 5 300kph winds. He’s having a shit time ๐Ÿ™

  • Quinn Bolon

    if anyone has a view on the nikkei i wld love to hear it

  • mugabe

    not too bad .. but lacks a royal palace

  • wandering196

    maybe Ivan could post when it is all over and let us know he is ok

  • Scott Phillips

    I very much doubt there will be Internet when it’s over

  • wandering196

    oh its that bad ๐Ÿ™ The 300 kph should have registered, have a great time in Bali, its on my travel list

  • Scott Phillips

    Lates

  • Scott Phillips

    Bang for buck the best luxury travel in the world, incredible place

  • ridingwaves

    that is a nasty cyclone for that area….Nam Myoho Renge Kyo Ivan..
    Have fun Scott..great call the other day…always wanted to surf those lefts over there Padang especially….

  • Scott Phillips

    I used to live at Uluwatu about 5 mins from Padang. My old house http://www.theistana.com

  • wandering196

    And the snow is still melting here, don’t get me wrong I love to x country ski but it’s time to put them away. And trading related it’s time for me to review your epic posts from last March.

  • Skynard

    Short position on, tagged upper 100 daily.

  • captainboom

    A link to a guy posting updates on the cyclone near Vanuatu.

    https://www.facebook.com/HigginsStormChasing

    44 foot storm surge… Damn. I experienced 20 – 25 foot seas going around the tip of South America on an aircraft carrier, and that was scary.

  • Quinn Bolon

    nice good luck to you im basically out of my longs this thing is completely off the rails

  • Skynard

    Yes, loopy

  • Ronebadger

    Then there’s Hawaii…

  • captainboom
  • phylum
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Prayer fired off.

    CAT 5, It’s a Monster, possibly 3rd in rank.

    The 2 pm EDT Thursday official intensity forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has Pam topping out with 175 mph winds, which would make it the 3rd strongest storm on record in the waters east of Australia.


    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2933

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    bloody hell, we only have a meager castle.

    I surrender the field.

    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    http://www.camelbackcastle.org/~camelbac/images/the-camelback-castle.jpg

  • Scott Phillips

    He can be so stubborn sometimes I hope he did the sensible thing and got to a storm shelter. I’ve been in cyclones before and it is utterly terrifying

  • phylum

    Mrs Market can be a bitch BUT Mother Nature is a bitch and always has the last say!

  • phylum

    Yep, I’ve been in some horrible weather but this is the real deal. The “perfect storm”.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    the wind is bad enough. it’s the debris & water in the wind that just makes it killer.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFonuXWEcZU

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, it looks like my new weather satellite is performing better than anticipated ๐Ÿ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The only problem is that there are no storm shelters on Vanuatu.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thank you sir – glad to be back!

  • phylum

    Biorhythm …. u should be asleep:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    10pm Pacific? Bah – he’s a big boy.

  • phylum

    Most probably:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How OLD are you people? :-))

  • phylum

    OR what time do we start!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • phylum

    at the same time?

  • Skynard

    Good action, need to see some Yen now.

  • Skynard

    Good action, need to see some Yen now.

  • Skynard

    Dark forces avail:)

  • ridingwaves

    tricky tape right now…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Gluten Morgen!

  • Darkthirty

    BTFD?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    My, Aren’t we happy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    S&p daily 50 ema held.

  • BobbyLow

    Wie geht?

  • Billabong

    I’m looking at a FBS (failed buy signal) on YM.

  • Darkthirty

    Looking for another wave down

  • Billabong

    If NQ breaks 4300 …..

  • BobbyLow

    Every once in awhile . . .

    Been riding a Short of the DJUSEN since February 19th via buying DUG @ 49.59 presently at 59.05. I also held my breath and my nose as I re-shorted Crude on Weds 3/11 via buying SCO at 81.11 presently at 100.44.

    Smoke em if you got em. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Billabong

    Are you sure on SCO current price. I also picked up a very small small position in SCO on Wed at 82 … this is a widow maker if it moves against the long buyer. Nice on DUG.

    EDIT: Before buying SCO, I wanted to make sure CL broke $48 with conviction.

    EDIT: It’s probably the end of the run now that we’re talking about it…

  • Skynard

    No way, real deal it seems.

  • BobbyLow

    Ooops. My bad. I looked at my quote list and /DX was right above SCO and the 100.44 was the /DX price.

    Actual price of SCO at the moment is 89.80. So only up around 8 Points. ๐Ÿ™‚

    BTW, our lens prescription is probably fairly close.

  • Darkthirty

    NQ still lagging

  • Billabong

    Probably due to the only large tech being up … ORCL … lol ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Billabong

    Anyone interested in boring … GE just issued a FBS and LOD

  • Skynard

    Just as well to see a dollar sell off as well. If so, Yen in launch mode.

  • BobbyLow

    Might be the end of the run or /CL might fall to $30. Have no way of knowing in advance except that price will tell us what to do along the way.

    As of this moment, SCO is putting out a Delta of +3.21 vs. /CL. So relatively small positions are in order at least for me so I can sleep soundly at night. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Billabong

    The R-SL is going to be moving up for Monday open.

  • DarthTrader

    That and the EUR/JPY have kept me levered up today with my lightening money

  • DarthTrader

    Be Aware. . . .

    All this sweet volatility is likely to dry up next week as the Fed meets on Tues with announcement Wed

  • ridingwaves

    JUNK sitting on inflection/support area..

  • Kidd Cudi

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XRT&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p40348307552

    Not sure of what trade to take here, (or if I even will act on it), but that is some tight BB compression, which looks pretty nice.

  • Billabong

    It’s interesting to note, this whole $ move started on the 26 Feb and on the 27th I had sell signals on ES/NQ/YM. This has now been underway for two weeks.

  • ridingwaves

    seems the red filled candle such as the last one precedes down move in most other sell offs on chart..

  • Skynard

    /NQ at 4300 backtest.

  • Darkthirty

    Had a trendline / fib time series / 382retrace at 11:58 on YM. Looking for 10 on RSI 5 60 minute

  • Skynard

    VWAP miss berry bearish at this piont.

  • Billabong

    CL new LOD

  • BobbyLow

    Amazing. Who woulda eva thunk it? ๐Ÿ™‚

  • kim

    adding more beer money, SL this time

  • BKXtoZERO

    too late to short?

  • BobbyLow

    In its purest sense – no. Or as Jesse Livermore said “A stock is never too high to buy and never too low to short.”

    However, when I went short, my rules had met sufficient criteria to do so. If you’re rule set says it’s OK then it’s OK.

    BUT, be extremely leery of “chasing” a move. Sometimes they work out but often times they do not.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Boy, I have been lucky! Writing a new post now…

  • Skynard

    Dangerously close to a unique opp for the bears.

  • Ronebadger

    Has anyone mentioned that today is Friday the 13th?

  • wandering196

    but Mole is lucky today

  • Skynard

    The 5 min has printed a mixed signal. Lower panel not in agreement with uppur panel. Believe the trend shall continue down.

  • Billabong

    Second month in a row …

  • mugabe

    gutten tag

  • Billabong

    Euro keeps going down. 6E @ 1.0488 and DX 100.70 … I’m amazed the US would let it run this long. There must be serious financial structural problems behind the curtain to give Europe almost 17%.

  • mugabe

    my euro denominated accounts say no problemo .. fuckin’ loving this (pardon the french)

  • Billabong

    I can’t blame you…

  • Billabong

    Anyone watching Mole’s call on SI? AG and SLW (both silver plays) are starting to move again.

  • mugabe

    it will end some time … gotta make the most of it now. then it’ll be time to coin it if you’re in USD and with a global outlook

  • BobbyLow

    Here is another occasion where common sense or conventional logic takes a back seat to the vagaries of the financial markets. How long ago was it that the problems of the PIIGS of the EURO came into full bloom? Two Years, Three years, Four years or more? I believe that conventional logic would have dictated that the EURO was going to be in deep trouble. But the CB’s kept on “fixing” the problem with trance after trance of billions of Euros. Bull Shit!

    But back to conventional logic. If a person had stayed short the Euro over the past few years they would have made a shit load of money. But one would have to have had extremely deep pockets to do so with the EURO being “fixed” over and over again.

    Reminds me of the housing boom when every house was going to be worth a million dollars or more. Conventional logic would say that the housing market was going to blow up and it did but not before blowing up the capital accounts of countless “logical” minds.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    _____ .__ __
    _/ __________ ____ _____| |__ _____ ____ _____ _/ |_
    __\_ __ _/ __ / ___/ | / _/ __ \__ \ __
    | | | | / ___/ ___ | Y | Y Y ___/ / __ | |
    |__| |__| ___ >____ >___| / |__|_| /___ >____ /__|
    / / / / / /

  • Billabong

    That’s why patience is crucial. 6E was 1.50 during the month of April 2011 … a
    person would have either had a stress meltdown fighting the tape for four years or died of boredom…

  • Darkthirty

    Algos are pumping it…….TA got hinkey

  • Darkthirty

    Slaughterhouse for the bulls this weekend……