The Final Hurdle

The bulls are getting closer to turning the tide but are now facing their final hurdle leading to the coveted annual bear stomping season a.k.a. Christmas. The juice ran out just as things started to get interesting and it is here, most likely this week, where the final verdict of 2015 will be decided. Either we’ll scratch it off as a tormented sideways long term correction or it will become known as the moment when the bulls finally were forced to face economic reality. Of course timing the event, as with all things in life, will be essential.

The volume profile chart shows us a pretty solid chasm right above between ES 2020 and ~2045, give or take a few handles. Participation does not really pick up until about 2065 and from there it’s smooth cruising into 2100 and beyond.

In terms of technical context things are looking positive – we closed above a daily NLBL as well as a weekly one last Friday. The monthly NLSL near 2013 is still in contest and will most likely determine the medium term direction for the coming quarter.

We are at a very crucial inflection point here and that’s pretty exciting on the long term front. However I suggest that you watch the short term panels and in particular the Zero for early clues. Last Friday’s tape was pretty indecisive with low participation and swings in both directions. That may however be good enough to hold the line here as the onus is on the bears now to muster up some mojo. Memo to the grizzlies: It’s all fun and games until you get short squeezed into oblivion again.

A few setups below the fold for my intrepid subs:

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Cheers,