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The King Of Stops
134

The King Of Stops

by The MoleApril 23, 2019

So I have been getting extremely lucky with my stops lately. If you’re keeping track then you realize that Ms. Market has been suspiciously gentle with me over the past few months. What’s going on? Must be my boyish good looks, or perhaps I just getting better at reading the tape? ๐Ÿ˜‰

Honestly I wish I was that good but I’m not. Bout of good luck I guess and I’m not complaining. Alright, I actually had put my ISL at ES 2898 but told everyone to keep it < 2899, which ended up being the session lows. Does it get any closer than that?

I wonder if it would be premature to declare myself the King of Stops and immediately claim prima nocta. Clearly I would be well in my rights but fortunately for your spouses I am a humble market mole and will make do with ruling the fiefdom of Valencia.

Anyway my stop remains at ISL until I see us clear that 100-hour SMA near ES 2910.

Crude continues to stick to our script and my stop is now advancing to 1.25R. I’m pretty jazzed about this one – if you take a peek at the daily panel then you’ll see that it’s starting to traverse the upper Bollinger.

A lot of noobs would be calling a top here, and yes there’s a good chance it’ll pull back for a while. However if you have been around the block a few times then you know that futures have a tendency to trend once they get going.

So this is going to be very interesting. A retest lower followed by a breach back higher would would be a USDA Prime Grade opportunity to grab some long exposure. So if you’re not already in this one then I suggest you wait for that.

Cotton unfortunately is a stop out at ISL. Apparently it’s not ready just yet but we’ll revisit the situation once it’s done retesting its 100-day SMA.

USD/JPY has been hemming and hawing around but just doesn’t get out of the gate. Which actually is rather strange given the current formation. I have very rarely (and perhaps never) seen an inverted H&S formation that then devolves into a LV sideways churn.

Anyway, stop out at ISL here as well. I know – I know.ย King of what again, Herr Mole? ๐Ÿ˜‰

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Eric Angermeier

    Hi Mole, you mention cotton has descended towards your ISL but still in the game…with chart of cocoa, is this what you meant? Thank you

  • Dyellowflash

    Quite rare to see a clear triple divergence on the Zero hourly. Going to fill a bucket of short options on the Dow and SnP futures… 26600 up to 26670 is my fill zone.

  • Dyellowflash

    I had filled about 20 contracts of short options. 30 more to go when the mkt opens.

  • bankwalker

    /GC just soiled the bed …

  • nirav777

    Short prior to testing ATH since we are this close? What am i not seeing?

  • Dyellowflash

    LUNCH!!!

  • Mark Shinnick

    “Whatโ€™s going on?” In-part, a remarkable selling of volatility.

  • HD

    I was thinking since Mole has been long almost everyday that he is holding the market up all on his own. Whale

  • ridingwaves

    pushed it thru 3 support layers…..impressive momentum killer by bears….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Elvis is on the fritz, and the algorithms can battle it out.
    Imagine if they go for drinks?
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5BJBKOgffc

  • bankwalker

    Do you remember who taught elvis how to dance?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkalgHGL1ao

  • bankwalker

    I found this lengthy list of backtesters:

    https://quantpedia.com/links/backtesters

    Many are free … many are not.

    Do any of you have any experience with any of them, or know of someone who does?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Watching ARRY Down to support zone and 55 ema short term oversold. Previous three trading days high was 5 ema as seen on chart.Needs a bullish close above 5 ema JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you see DB?
    yeah – hate the banks.
    but those moving average envelopes? are starting to curve.
    caveat emporer. somebody knows something!!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DB&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84911672943

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    as a setup, long at 9 or 9.25.
    yes, a disgusting thought. speculators gotta speculate!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Remember to watch EUFN (European Financials)
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    dang maybe an R of Labu would have been better…..:)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW May buy ARRY closing today above it’s 5 ema
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EUFN (European Financials)Pulling back from upper trend line of an expanding triangle.Watching for pullback to possible support matching it’s rising 21 ema JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What is your coding skill set?

  • HD

    The chart I shared at the close yesterday suggesting a dose of volatility was good for 21 handles, swiftly. 2929 pivot gets a short now.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey crew!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD I have 2929 and 2933 as important levels
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    programmer for 30+ years but light in the newer languages.

    I could pick up a new language extremely fast (days, not weeks) with a little dedication.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did I miss anything? Just got back from the gym….
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2cbb1b53e7bab6d2cf6c72555dc0ae6b22f700f5d11fe852b36a73371efbe385.png

    Boy would I have been pissed had my stop been nabbed.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief Doing Great Thanks for the post !
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Short /ES

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Orange juice futures sunk 4.8% – lowest since 2015:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obAoPP1bdIM

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Anyone?? Was there a new event or is it just earnings?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Anyone?? Was there a new event or is it just earnings?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Seems to me it’s forward guidance
    JULIE

  • HD

    the boys are back from Easter long weekend.

  • ridingwaves

    ATH, Uber IPO forthcoming….and I saved $400 bucks by switching to Geico

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nothing but continuation given the usual new justifications.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief IMO Forward guidance
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    …VIX holding steady during all this monkey business…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Careful guys – VIX apparently trailing equities. I wouldn’t step in front of a speeding train but if we see a divergence in the Zero I may grab a ST hedge.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/baef4676907614baeaaa3862d3fdccb3e7fed6dbd73059e8f031796c1f53c8ab.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ha – I just posted that!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys My employer is big on “Wellness” and a Higi Blood Pressure station was installed this a.m. My BP was 129/78 I am alive and well
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    might as well keep blowing it north and it will make any May sell and go away look minor and then the summer bots take over….

  • Mark Shinnick

    A bunch of melt-up narrative going on.

  • HD

    I got run over immediately.

  • HD

    Great call yesterday Mark!

  • Mark Shinnick

    All your data getting stored…and sent-off to somewhere?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long some TVIX 18.8 for the day only, not adding as I have (ugh) averaged in, 24,22,20 (as planned) so 18.8 isn’t far enough for me to average but looks interesting.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mark I never thought of that. I never put my name in for save so I don’t think that they know who I am
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    it could hold steady here for 2-3 more opex’s with slight bumps….looking at 2 yr daily chart

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys the 60 min chart SPX says it all … The strong breakout above the cloud JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4c7bb84810faa70d65b61287af949fdec58cec3e3f5b15076bf5514387f2822f.png

  • HD

    1% intraday pop. VIX should be 14

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I call this, the Russell Spring.
    if and if, it can squeeze, what a squeeze it will BE.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/64d46b58917cd1133b23662a2db96a88b8f315ad41250a86734717cc14274760.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it starts small. camel nose in the tent.
    employers caring for you is a bunch of !#$!#.
    I’ve been lay’d off too many times to swallow that lie.

    -BitterGerb

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    when Lando kisses your hand, I’ll roll my eyes.

    he’s a lousy friend.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Let’s not space out TLT Bullish falling wedge at (1) support (2) 55 ema (3) lower Keltner channel (4) MACD centret line Crucial test https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e5c633771507bf641937bf546b750c8ab4386f3e115cad90fd7a00103729015b.png JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    big moves in speck bio symbols springing up daily now…..some pump and dumps, some real news….leads me to believe this is going to happen…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yeah GG I concur. Employer Health insurance monitoring for sure A real eye opener
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    once earnings is over. then it’s ‘is this as good as it gets?’ moment.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I have posted same sentiment GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no need for safety. no Bonds, no Gold, no nuthing.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Remember my target GLD 119 ? Down there now
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Mark and everyone You are right about Employer Wellness Program … You don’t meet the standards you are Fuckin Gone. Just talked about it with fellow co workers
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no, no I don’t.

    all metals suck!
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    off to a meeting.

  • HD

    Does 35-25-36 meet the standard at your company? ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD My weight is only 3 lbs more than high school A picture a few years ago https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e186bb68be9f945965c24cec82ea55e28fc3e0fb659958f30a9560f61590d2ec.png JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Hey RW, congrats on your perfect execution on LABU yesterday.

    After getting stopped for +1.5 R on the last 1/2 of LABD, this morning, I put on a 1/2 position of LABU. My original plan was to go to cash because I’ll be away next week but I got a clear long signal and got in. So we’ll see what happens. . .

  • BKXtoZERO

    Anyone venture a guess when “normal” markets ended? was it 1987? and when did the every move is a planned, perfect trendline following short squeeze market start?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BL May buy ARRY at close above it’s 5 ema @ 22.76 As I type 22.76 and + 1.97% Would like to see more volume today JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    It depends on what the definition of normal is. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Since the days of JP Morgan and the Big Guys of the Industrial Revolution the markets have always been gamed. It’s just gamed on a much more sophisticated way now.

  • HD

    You are very pretty.

  • BobbyLow

    Looks pretty good Julie and appears to be moving right along with the S&P BIO Index.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So in other words you’ve completely let yourself go…. tisk tisk

  • bankwalker

    I would say everything changed in 1982 with the birth of the S&P 500 futures contract.

  • HD
  • HD

    So the VIX is down 1% and SPX up 1% and people are scratching their heads?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah….seems like around that time…. when the Baby Boomers got brain damaged with drugs and armed with computer power spreadsheets

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thank You HD
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    go team go….headwinds forming above here, going to need a gap up,

    jumped into some spec bio after a pump and dump, at 1.57, news conference tomorrow..did private raise for 9.6M shares at 1.60 today and warrants for 1.75….

    MBRX, going to see if they run it up past 2 tomorrow and put trailing stop behind it. S out is todays low….

    huge volume flowing thru thus its not retail only

  • bankwalker

    I was thinking more in terms of the leverage that had never existed until then … the game-changer IMHO.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Took mine today 127/78 ๐Ÿ™‚

  • HD

    Imo the โ€œemergency economic stabilization act of 2008โ€ thatโ€™s GW signed into law set the stage for the most corrupt market anyone could dream about. Fail safe.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…with the derivative business today but a small fraction of 1987.

  • BKXtoZERO

    futures allowed overnight levitation and gaps on small volume

  • ridingwaves

    the libor fix years before that has that act beat…..nickel and dimed the world for years on that one

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Here we are again holding it’s 5 ema and top of upper trend line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1e17a6e0ca818575b56a180b444cdfee4c9b4e71b5cbb851741b9b954dc08941.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    VIX is holding higher lows 3 days in a row (edit) so far

  • HD

    Interesting observation amigo.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I recommend you learn python for the research part. For implementation and running of systems MultiCharts or TradeStation would do. I actually filmed a video on that topic which is going to be part of my system building master class.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Banking Index ($BKX) see inset bouncing off support and holding it’s 21 ema HMMM ! JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY 60 min chart VWAP (orange line) matches 60 min 8 ema Monitoring closely JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • bankwalker

    OK thanks …

  • Sp00nman

    Ya good question, I’ve wondered myself. From what I gather, quantopian seems pretty good for stocks, although support seems to be waining on the platform lately it seems. Did they drop integration with IB? You also can’t backtest with futures, only equities. Quantconnect I believe can be ported over to use IB as a broker. Someone mentioned multicharts previously but I haven’t tried them. I’d definitely be interested to hear folks that have tried different systems.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole. Congrats on your long campaign and stops….you play these engineered markets like a fiddle.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Not at zero yet.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Well when you look at one thing you get better at looking amigo. And better looking personally too…

  • Sp00nman

    We’re waiting on those videos.. :p

    Any idea what the price will be on the system building masterclass? Is there a system/method you recommend for backtesting? It seems like running a system and backtesting may require different platforms.

  • ridingwaves

    just a market, engineers are part of it….so are cooks, financial analysts, taxi drivers, moms, car salesman etc…..

  • ridingwaves

    went L AXSM, AKTX, MBRX, ALDR….stops are trailing behind…..a bit loose for now…scalp trend trades…

  • HD

    Can we rule out the yield curve affecting equities now?

  • HD

    2500 point move on deck.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Z!mbabwe B!tchez,
    riches for all! (face palm)

  • ridingwaves

    as van halen says, sometimes you need to run with the devil..
    ………https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VztkpyUcf4k

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    AARY Going to hold off on buying Looking for a bullish close above 22.41 WHY ? 22.41 is the daily Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) and daily upper cloud boundary matching the 60 min lower cloud boundary. Now overbought 60 min and 10 min charts and volume is lackluster today .60 min chart up into lower cloud boundary and 60 min 55 ema Possible pullback Will show daily and 60 min charts JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c9a24d97bfe96a833d81e4a8c4a6ebd98d12b9af06cb88be0f94e85046c08296.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9c5db97dad6a250b9749ee39494b61f170b9409593ddd1cbab5e7d8e4650e19f.png

  • ridingwaves

    Best live early Faces I’ve come across, Ronnie Lane….geez…..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrOPJXrUWII

  • Mark Shinnick

    The tvix setup looked pretty good so got some.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Important gaps filled…Turnaround Tuesday? nahhh that would be too absurd.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks BKX – I guess I really got lucky with this one.

  • zzezzezz

    Yup. Barely any movement

  • zzezzezz

    Hopefully it’s downward

  • bankwalker

    I think we are only a few points away from /ES all time high? Gap and crap tomorrow?

  • zzezzezz

    I’m thinking /NQ should lead the way down, for me to feel comfortable, since it led the way up and making new ATH for several days now.

  • BKXtoZERO

    No….skill….on the right side of history and skill reading modern tape.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys USO The Inverted Head & Shoulder measures to approx 14 intersecting with an upper trend line ( 11.5 – 9 = 2.5 .. 11.5 + 2.5 = 14 ) Watching USO closely as there is also a negative divergence CCI JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/95f5cbc4e589044cd428167a00e0e43be8290808e7f3c008791731cae2f91afc.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys GLD Let’s see if we get an oversold bounce at 50% retracement and fib fan line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/197135e9edfea5680f038694af49d643b4f3b06dc78e82e1a8b4d135c3b07837.png

  • sutluc

    You may already know this but images are readily searchable on the web. If you use pictures off the web they can be tracked to their source and the information available there can be used to track more information and so on ad infinitum.

    You seem to be a fairly private person, so if this image is actually a picture of someone associated with you…
    If you were to use an image that has not been posted anywhere else ever, this does not apply of course. Much harder to info mine.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I had an employer a couple of years ago that signed up for some new health insurance plan, where we’d wear a USB stick on our shoe to track steps and get discounts on our insurance. No fucking way I was going to do that. I read 1984 in high school, and I think it’s less the gov’t that’s destroying our privacy, but more likely private business.

  • Darkthirty

    Psychosis isn’t sophistication…โ€ฆโ€ฆ…

  • Dyellowflash

    I dont like what I am seeing at the zero, so I am out of my Shorts for a measly 7 points. Got to go sleep now – my time is 12 hrs ahead of US time.

  • Dyellowflash

    Maybe tmr or right at the last hr of the session might offer a better shorting opportunity.