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The Most Feared Rally
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The Most Feared Rally

by The MoleJuly 2, 2019

I took a glance at a long term VIX chart this morning and realized that it had only dropped below its 11 mark once since January of 2018, and then didn’t remain there for more than a day. Admittedly the past 18 months have been turbulent for equities, which is evidenced by the fact that the SPX is currently trading merely 100 handles above the high painted on January 27th, 2018.

Two attempts to reconquer its old glory and breach into new all time highs succeeded but were quickly followed by a sell off phase, the most extended one lasting a full three months.

Investor sentiment has shifted accordingly. While the early 2018 wipeout was followed by ‘IV normalization’ (i.e. a drop through the VIX 15 mark) within three months the past two corrections exhibit a lot more lingering fear among market participants.

On a long term basis we now seem to be paying the price for a full year of ‘irrational exuberance’ throughout 2017, which even exceeded the bullish market sentiment observed ahead of the 2008 crash.

What is particularly fascinating however is the VIX:VXV ratio, also known as the Implied Volatility Term Structure, as it reflects premium shifts between 30-day and 90-day option expirations.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • DaVerg

    i am wearing my safety glasses and hard hard, just in case.

  • ridingwaves

    Happy 4th of July to all except Colin Kapernick, sheeple flocker……short Nike….guy couldn’t win a game without talent around him….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…there are so many POV’s of what is still but only a broken system of central banker hijacking of natural cycles. Judging from the effects of the social changes when natural economic opportunity is removed, and we are all collectively too stupid not to kill them all dead, I’m not optimistic.

  • ridingwaves

    come on the Bernanke put has another year to run, celebrate and buy ammo in Arizona….its cheaper and not regulated by the whacked out Cali govt.

    Happy 4th of July to you and the family. Sitting in LAX waiting for flight and man I’m glad to get out of here….loved it when I lived here but just a crowded mess now….though sure lots of skin down in HB on Sunday

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…patience. Go 3Pers.

  • ridingwaves

    though I did see a across the board push and dump on biotech sector, an after 4th of july move down could be in play to force feds hand even more…..gotta have those low rates for us serfs…

  • Miguel Sanchez

    Creo que el final esta cerca. I think the end is near. https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VXV&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05662966550

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    está

  • Miguel Sanchez

    no me deja subir imagen …

  • Miguel Sanchez

    se ve el enlace ?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Creo que no.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Disqus soporta arrastrar y soltar.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Miguel Sanchez
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Vale – ¡Lo averiguaste!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Miguel Sanchez

    hahaha, si . la verdad es que pocas veces comento algo …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I saw nothing. Nothing. 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Pues era hora de que hiciste algo útil – jejeje 😉

  • Cyd

    Chieftan Thanks for the explanation VIX. I too noticed some lingering fear and showed the NAAIM chart showing the reluctance of fund managers
    Cyd

  • Miguel Sanchez

    hahahahahaha. ojala sea útil !

  • Cyd

    SLV the oversold bounce @ baseline filling the gap Back in https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/38e58b1ef759d8988e9fbe8f338beeaaf92627633c19b4e414034727dfeaf63e.png long Now only two positions long SLV and short WFC

    Cyd

  • Mark Shinnick

    Same area, vastly-increased density. Water still great in HB.

  • Cyd

    I held my short position WFC and now going my way.knowing 48 @ resistance – upper channel and upper cloud would be tough
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/05c2c298ebf32281dd4017f082af0bfa3c3baf5e93bec55577632ddb3111ca47.png

  • Cyd

    @ Evilisasevildoes Thanks for the heads up RAIL I like it
    Cyd

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    SPX going to be interesting before the holiday with holiday volume kicking in
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/27d86c4a82a84b8eea475316e48b32c211fa87bb940202d06df05e6e7fc92540.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Por favor, when does El Vixo go uppo grande

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    Watching BA oversold to see if it can hold support especially if SPX pulls back. Also if SPX does pullback listed targets previous thread 2853 and 2840. Must also watch 2910 the 21 ema

    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e25ef16e272b57567b970855521a85881cd58d47dfd303f87f9f039f60dabc3a.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e25ef16e272b57567b970855521a85881cd58d47dfd303f87f9f039f60dabc3a.png

  • Cyd

    CAT pulling back with oil which it has a strong correlation Want CAT to break lower trend line – 5 ema and support shown
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/48b026e70bbd556e3259a6226753cd875e182c20045e2132370f83c4ae1001d3.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Well Cyd… Crude shook us off like fleas

  • Cyd

    TLT Breaking out of minor triangle and better watch Bonds are gonna win Equity bulls no match for bonds which is usually the case.Banks have fun with $TNX dropping below triangle too
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1840148e2df006379d8cf03438c5c7e70d0fdd3ad0199c962cc10975ad9c6d1a.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b4df0110d3f6e91a13e0fb3fa8ee2bdea826abc55f26ad410e20258874e253ea.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah those fundies have been rolled over in the past quarter it seems.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    TLT looking good.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s quite a reversal. I think your channel is a bit haphazard but once it paints a floor pattern I’d be game.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oversold is a myth.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not me! 😉

  • Cyd

    Yesterday was a curve ball thrown with the BS over weekend but it was sold into which was bearish I covered for B/E like you near open as unable to watch being at workl Today is the re short especially if it closes below the 21 ema IMO close today important

    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Not in a down trend or bear market IMO
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Banks relative under performance with SPX Banks to gain any ground must break above down trend line and relative resistance only if SPX remains in uptrend and breaks out to new highs. This scenario unlikely for the present time with the performance of bonds TLT
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c7024fab179bfc3e348f807faecb7f366a604b8b57e62ee83639acd4cb485167.png

  • Cyd

    Tomorrow is my last day as I will be on vacation My parents arrive on Friday and will be taking day trips with family. Julie will be back this weekend and her husband will be doing things with my dad. Fishing and hiking with him Summer has now arrived in MT

    Thanks all as you guys are great as Julie and I think so much of everyone here

    Wonderful meeting everyone
    Chieftan great job with the class and will study with Julie when we are back together

    THANKS !
    Cyd

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    I would like to re show an important chart that Julie and I use. You may want to incorporate this chart in your tool box It’s called the Pring Dow Diffusion Idicator. We use the weekly but you can also use the daily You can see the importance of +25 and – 25 Symbol !PRDIFDOW Using this with $NYMO weekly +60 and -60 pretty much nails major inflections https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/792052bb81207099f9219f455ec62a63dba5872e56425168740605a104704fe8.png

    Cyd

  • Cyd

    You can also see the importance of 0 too
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    YOU ROCK!

  • Cyd

    Not going to short oil. Something is going on VP Pence returning to Washington and GOLD spiking Hang on to PM.s esp Gold Possible strike Iran looming ? Could be

    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eceb9d8c431cca6d9e340e3620106b1b81fb5d5fee9a4fe492646ebe3f4b7918.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ce6d8e820155cd8a131e8eabba06270fbc68b55fdc96b75e6b4d842878d2d430.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    go go Gold!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    thanks Cyd for filling in. Enjoy your parents. I will be researching the Market in an unusual way. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6a54856c8d27d4454bdd51b552e703ed5eaaadaed20885e4fb7a6b0917881edf.jpg

  • Cyd

    Hello GG Hang in there Hoping you are having a nice vacation. Been a complete pleasure meeting and conversing with you. Julie will be back this weekend and everyone awaits the barbs between you and her. The back and forth but surprisingly both of you agree on almost everything. I will pop in when I can as it’s been a complete joy and experience
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ready for more EXAS charts..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    ESPECIALLY NOT in a down trend or bear market.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • BKXtoZERO

    In Seattle RV sales look strong but that is because people are living in them.

  • Cyd

    SPX Not sure what the bulls see other than hope with the wedge red trend lines.Hope will ruin a trading account

    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/adcaf2560bd40092b7eeb9e89711ef93fdf518b365106359b849c6615e94a356.png

  • Cyd

    New car sales is another economic indicator. Also help wanted ads

    Cyd

  • ridingwaves

    RV’s are everywhere….I had to dodge them on the 405….prices are whacked, like cars….another little fed inflation creation…..high priced vehicles with 84 month loans are easy for the debt pushers to fool some of us into serfdom….

  • BKXtoZERO

    Their accounts going up?

  • Cyd

    VIX inverted to track SPX now above bollinger band and 10% above 10 ema A pullback can occur at anytime
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/57399eaf6f0b717b63a6f3fad5f436915e849700d0dddd9bd820fdfe4aad6de3.png .

  • Cyd

    Clarification That is what I meant agreeing with you Chieftan
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    SPX just like yesterday a spike final hour. A stick save IMO going to be difficult to maintain. Able to do it with low volume. You can see what they are doing manipulating so there is not a dump before the Holiday and weekend so people spend over the holiday and weekend. A dump will spook the consumer.One of the oldest tricks in the book
    Cyd

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    She wants to make a run for it.

  • Cyd

    Seems like institutions are on the fence. Some buying and some selling. But it’s a holiday shortly. Interesting a long time investor in our investment club told us about if $USD went lower IBM went higher and XOM went higher it was a sure thing that the market would move higher.Today substitute MSFT for IBM Today MSFT and UUP holding and XOM dropping. Makes for a neutral day which what occurred. Chieftan very interesting the parallels
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Chieftan if you are still here this is very interesting. $XII the institutional index of the 75 most held stocks by institutions which can’t be manipulated as it’s not traded. It advanced 0.48% opposed to $SPX 0.29% today Yes you are correct assuming it wants to make a run. I have no position SPX waiting a confirmation
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/57399eaf6f0b717b63a6f3fad5f436915e849700d0dddd9bd820fdfe4aad6de3.png

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    Then there is one of Julie’s favorite charts The hedge funds $GVIP which sold into today’s move and unable to make a higher high above the early May high
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3a3d24715766698066bda437018af32f33cb7d0dcd00e6e5ff5ea820e3c32e19.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Damn I didn’t even know that index. Thanks for that one.
    It’s pretty easy to see when a market wants to run – all the signs are there. Plus we are in a statistical up week.

  • Cyd

    It’s a good one Chieftan. I want to thank you personally for welcoming me in Julie’s absence (vacation) I feel that I have a home here too like Julie. She will be back this weekend and I have conveyed all your nice thoughts to her

    Cyd

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    We have 62.50 and 60 targets $COTTON Appears to be basing 65 – 68 PNF bearish objective 51
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/83d0a80df99b09372d4e28327ec5c378a00dcac5e18ab9d402bee983b4cbccaf.png

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    GLD Nice move off 13 ema – upper gap window and trend line. Lotta upside with stochs turning up @20 Look at the bullish https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7e41cf1158e28468bfe6707ab2f1a2e7290e285aa2ff193da0e88ebcbdc2ad6c.png spread between the moving averages I have a long position SLV from this a.m

    Cyd

  • Cyd

    The all important Railroad Index $DJUSRR Looks like a bearish descending triangle from 1st week May Breaks 2325 line in the sand could get very ugly indeed
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e26973468744c3919608c260b8279df676ec1f10ba53586fa5d84adb10391a4f.png

  • Cyd

    This is one to keep on radar. Relative performance of Utilities versus Transports. The last 1 1/2 year the Utilities have generally outperformed the Transports There is a relative resistance line which is about to cross above.which again will add another nail to Transports coffin
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/510281a2f941b84fa1faf3dac0f3182625192338944d453d0a58f986a7cf65ac.png

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    UPS pulling back at a resistance zone and 61.8% retracement. A lot of things to watch economy related. Trucking and rails
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d51cc54228cd25fce599e588805d26c76e862f40179e06a8446ddfe1f2008cdc.png

  • Cyd

    The unemployment rate this could be as good as it gets

    Remember now .. All the major Banks just passed their stress tests administered by the Federal Reserve with flying colors EVEN with a calculated 10 % unemployment rate

    What A Relief .. Everything will be great !

    Pardon my language .. LIKE FUCK !
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c85a3a15564bc19f8afb248bebe71619e85715be34c4941d8f9faaa94c1fd5d6.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f6bd2046bb5cc2266c6f4b2e0384ee7e0b7dd3ff72b11bab8a45055f3c8f6914.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    long WFC, tee hee.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I bought some last week. AMZN will buy it out some year.

  • Cyd

    At your peril Mr G lol! glad you have a sense of humor . In fact everyone here has . Makes for a great day
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Futes as I type no edge Oddsmakers have oil up for tomorrow’s open .. so far anyway. IMO they sense something going to happen in Gulf region I did not short oil today

    Cyd

  • Cyd

    They also have gold up for tomorrow’s open too
    Cyd

  • Scott_CA

    The XII and GVIP charts are near identical twins–have to plot them together to detect any differences. R=.95 for SPY vs GVIP, no doubt similar for SPY vs XII.
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations

    It will take Sherlock Holmes level sleuthing to choose one over the other. But based on posts made the last several days, I suspect Sherlock, or perhaps Sherrie, is your middle name, Ms. Cyd.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nat Gas may have formed a small rt shoulder and start heading up a bit… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/37080d7425eb3e71f66474eaafb13c0f5203879907b433ab9a8eea67fcdcaba5.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Let me know if they like The Philadelphia Eagles this year

  • BKXtoZERO

    why bearish? the slant of the triangle? Looks like it could also be bullish consolidation. Now reality of the rails may be dismal but whatever

  • ridingwaves

    GC players-NFP on Friday…..you know what to to…

  • Mark Shinnick
  • ridingwaves

    I’m loading up on 1x shorts on friday a bit today…2x on sustained -20 RSI 3X on -30 RSI

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well..remember its Summer…maybe nothing burgers for a while.

  • ridingwaves

    I haven’t updated this and its too close to july 4th to do it but guess where we are now? The right shift on downward 40 week cycle and top of 20 week cycle is here……….good luck in your trading….been waiting for this for a long time…..yes RW is bearish for a moment of time…..
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b952167f33103b141884bd6dd5f4823a9b5b6d8a347eef75e9d17b93f7af2c87.png

  • ridingwaves

    see above…

  • BKXtoZERO

    I say 3X on a hunch about having a hunch!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    WFC. back again, 1% positive. “at my peril”..ha!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    like Pitbull sings, Don’t stop the party. HYG near ATH.

  • BobbyLow

    Wonder if the Futures will hit 3,000 today?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – wishing you all a happy Independence Day – 243 years and counting!

    https://images02.military.com/sites/default/files/2019-06/independence-day-landing-page-header.jpg

  • BobbyLow

    That would be nice. 🙂 I went long at 2987 this morning. I chickened out yesterday and took a small profit just before they went up “bigly” right after 4 PM. Going to try to hold right up to before the early close at 1:15 EDT today unless it really turns bad before then.

  • BKXtoZERO

    they always go extra,,, 3040-3050, probably after the 4th assuming no issues over the weekend.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Thanks Captain. financial freedom, let Liberty Ring!

  • BobbyLow

    Good point BK. The market always overdoes everything both to the upside and the downside.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    like mole use to say, even numbers are mental M!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…and China annexed Hawaii in their govt maps several years ago…..and nobody but awesome Chinese immigrants here talks about it to warn everyone of what China is really all about.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX 15.67 for day position shot, holding small between 20 to here too

  • BKXtoZERO

    ooot 15.59

  • Cyd

    @ Riding Waves These Bio stocks have recent insider buying
    CALA possible double bottom @ 3.50
    TGTX
    ABBV
    Cyd

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Cyd

    TLT Bonds confirming it’s breakout with nice follow thru
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    SLV moving stop up @ today’s low 14.29
    Cyd

  • ridingwaves

    Happy 4th of July……bammmm
    When can we tar and feather all congress, senate and executive branch? is there a day setup for that yet…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • ridingwaves

    bet your glad you got out of DRV last week

  • BKXtoZERO

    Bastille Day

  • BKXtoZERO

    Yes, thanks, I even had a gain! 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    That would be a Trifecta! 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Had set a 2.5 Point Trailing Stop just in case and getting close – Will be out before 1:15 PM regardless.

  • BKXtoZERO

    back in TVIX 15.54

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That would be a day to celebrate. I’m so disgusted by the political class all across the Western hemisphere. I have the misfortunate to also read the news in Spain, France, and in Germany – each on its own representing a massive train wreck.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Let’s just focus on making the coin and then we’ll start our own little village somewhere. Who’s game? 😉

  • BobbyLow

    Out – Just came down far enough to catch my Stop at 2994.75 for +7.75 Points. It’s probably going to rip upward now but a “Bird in hand” and all that rot. 🙂 Oh well, it’s still good to go into the 4th with a win and in cash.

  • Scott_CA

    For GLD enthusiasts…..check out the post by ‘Alex’ (at the moment the only one) concerning non-auditability of the AU bars. Reads like some of the cryptocurrency posts.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-morning-gold-slingshot-cannabis-130035022.html

    I also like the last sentence in the first section…”Either the (ed. GLD) breakout will be reversed, or silver has a lot of catching up to do.”

    Except for July ’10->’13, SLV seems to top out at ~19, currently ~14.
    It would seem to be a relatively safe place to put $, but is it worth it, compared to, say EXAS (already too near analyst’s average target for my taste)? Thinking about that, a history of analyst’s projections/security vs what really happened (and why) would be interesting plotting and reading. I’ve read analysts are ~80% accurate, but I’m sure their mileage varies +/- 100%.

  • Cyd

    I hear ya The one thing I keep in perspective The U.S. is still the greatest place in world to live in my lens
    Cyd

  • ridingwaves

    secret secret cycle chart, I will delete at end of day….guess where we are at, plus Mole’s next 2 week comment made me pull it out of my trick bag…..I might update over the weekend, no guess, we are at the red line area…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b952167f33103b141884bd6dd5f4823a9b5b6d8a347eef75e9d17b93f7af2c87.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Absolutely. Although the bigger US cities have major problems these days, there are a ton of small towns where you can live a great life. If there’s one thing I really miss in Spain it’s the easiness of everything. Doesn’t matter what it is – ordering a product – calling customer support – starting a company – everything is highly efficient and well organized in the U.S.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    In the States – if you are ambitious and you don’t mind working hard – you can be successful. That cannot be said for Europe unfortunately.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    it seems to be on purpose. a long term goal of breaking old fashioned political process. in plain view of the younger generations.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He’s riding the waves.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    news don’t matter? political process don’t matter!!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice, thanks!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    if he wave counts it, can we temp ban him?

  • Cyd

    One word says it all
    THANKS !
    Everyone have a great summer
    Cyd

  • ridingwaves

    no waves, cycles my friend, they are everywhere…..the 20 week topped this week….it has a right shift on 40 week downward acceleration…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    i’d bring guns, unfortunately BL would use them. lol.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Are you leaving on vacation now too?

  • BobbyLow

    When I first began trading I relied heavily on analysts. I later developed a financially deadly addiction of finding analysts that agreed with whatever positions I was holding. This was an absolute disaster. I’ve gone from being dependent on analysts to avoiding them like the plague. By working toward and developing my own technical analysis, the only thing I rely on is my chart. JMNSHO 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    in fact I don’t know how to count a wave, never even looked at it as tool….but I do like riding the liquid kind…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I was in LA a few days ago. Could we narrow it down a little? 😉

  • ridingwaves
  • Cyd

    Yes BK I am out of office in 45 minutes at noon Love your car
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    so you didn’t take the $97 offer..
    GG ducks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    bikini pics by the lake, we will be expecting.!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I’m traveling home rest of day.
    Love and peace, i’m out. -GG

  • ridingwaves

    I like Jeff Suat from Raymond James….he is pretty good, damn straight forward on there are bear moments and bull moments….old guy……

  • Mark Shinnick

    Naturally I love this. On the other hand we have an immense phenomena all about the nulling-out of all natural cycles. Its all happening.

  • BobbyLow

    Damn! Someday I’ll have total confidence in my game. After what happened yesterday afternoon, I had a strong “feeling” that we would hit 3000 on the futures today. Price was in a nice steady climb on my 5 Minute and because we were in a shortened day, around 12:40 PM, I changed my OCO order that had a 3000 Limit on the profit side to a 2.5 Point Trail. Price came down and just barely caught my stop and then re-upped its journey to 3,000 and closed at 3001. I could have almost doubled my gain if I had just sat on my hands. The learning curve never stops.

  • ridingwaves

    its within the phenomena period, thus I believe the right shift, the 20 and 40 wk cycle need to be pushing down for it to happen…lots of folks get killed thinking the 40 week top is when down move starts and the right shift clobbers them…

  • BobbyLow

    I think you’re pretty much a medium to longer term holder and there some analysts that have a lot to contribute. When I saw the link to Yahoo on Scott_CA’s comment it also brought back memories of Yahoo Chatrooms going way back that also cost me a lot of money. Yet all of my bad experiences were my own fault for being so damn gullable. I tend to be more of a cynic now. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Actually that’s a good question GG. And the answer is that after all the work and hundreds if not thousands of man hours that I’ve spent learning how to read a tape, if I can’t make it now I never will. And if I don’t make it now, I’ll just “fade away” like MacArthur did at the end of the Korean War. 🙂

  • Cyd

    GVIP non committal on SPX gap and go Looks like continued selling on their part to weaker hands Yesterday complete distribution by them

    Cyd

  • Scott_CA

    I read this bit of wisdom not long ago…”but a “Bird in hand” and all that rot. 🙂 Oh well, it’s still good to go into the 4th with a win and in cash.”

    I Believe it. Tomorrow is another day–or next week, anyway.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Scott. 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    you are correct, trend playa, though I have been caught playing wrong trend….scalping does fit me, did some today but its volume based in sectors

  • ridingwaves

    the gold knockdown on Sunday night and then re-birth on Tuesday is bad for all gold shorts, after NFP, gold looks to move much higher….I have 1620 as a very firm target now……the paper short boys are now in bad position

  • BKXtoZERO

    Your chart aligns with Andre Gratian on gold eagle. He is a cycles guy but uses other things. I respect him as unbiased. He has down into august september

  • Cyd
  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Happy Independence Day to ALL across the entire WORLD. God Bless the entire PLANET.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Sp00nman

    Happy 4th to all! Looking forward to spending time with family and friends. Hope everyone has a good 4th!

  • BKXtoZERO

    I spaced out on the MKT closing early and left more TVIX on than my usual overnight hold…I guess we find out next week.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’ve backed way-off almost everything except PM things entered some weeks ago.
    Not 1 touch of tvix for weeks now.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Dude, I was referencing your name!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • sutluc

    I’m on the other side of that but I hope it works out for you anyway.

  • evilasevildoes
  • Ronebadger

    If the British won the American Revolution, we’d be speaking English today… (Do they have a 4th of July in England these days?)

  • Cyd

    One item I have overlooked and would like to share $XAU:$GOLD ratio Weekly chart You can see when this ratio is oversold it has a strong probability of a nice run up in $GOLD Breaks above the relative resistance downtrend line and a very strong move may occur Riding Waves has a 1620 target $GOLD which is entirely possible

    The past 20 years the $GOLD:$SILVER ratio has averaged about 60 to 1.Whenever it climbs above 80 a strong technical buy signal for $SILVER is issued The current ratio is 92 to 1. Either $GOLD declines or $SILVER plays catch up SLV chart is very strong technically with the 8 ema (not shown) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3d72086c53d94072bcdafa79e6ca9d4819580d8c9531c309249034535e157eb.png moving above the 55 ema with CMF positive. I have a tight stop SLV and have loosened my stop ACCUM/DIST and OBV are very positive I had to show two last charts which I feel very important https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1218e584009ad8321eba524199c1fffa2793378fbf8eea1d57dc619f7f50282c.png

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    you thought the FED was a problem?
    check out The Crown and The City. Legit?

    http://grahamhancock.com/phorum/read.php?2,375286,375298

    “When people hear “The Crown”, they automatically think of the King and Queen. When they hear “London” or “The City”, they instantly think of the capital of England in which the monarch officially resides since London’s expansion absorbed the City of Westminster.

    “The City” is in fact a privately owned Corporation – or sovereign state – occupying 677 acres in the heart of the 610 square mile “Greater London” area. The population of the City is 5,000 whereas Greater London has 8 million.

    “The Crown” is a committee of 12-14 men who rule this independent sovereign state known as London or “The City”. “The City” is not a part of England and is not subject to the Sovereign nor under rule of Parliament. It is an independent state, like Kowloon City in Hong Kong, which belonged to Communist China. It’s the Vatican of the commercial world. “

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hell YEAH!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    GG dodges the Big One. I was in LosAngeles Sunday!

    or was this a precursor!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33c6739fc6baa0e829c8d04153b3fecdc4bf2e6fc3a32c903d44be03f75efe27.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    It was Ok in Santa Clarita but still need to check things out in Mojave.

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like it worked out fine. Could have waited and said you left more in play on purpose. 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    ridingwaves 2 days ago
    GC players-NFP on Friday…..you know what to to…

    I think I meant DO at the end…1362 would be a full breakout retest…..please mr paper boys, take it there for the gipper…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Ronebadger

    I’ve drawn a number of trendlines … YOU decide what’s going on…
    https://invst.ly/b6p6t

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Ronebadger
  • ridingwaves

    2885 scare the children moment forthcoming?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    [The Earnings Mirage: Why Corporate Profits are Overstated and What It Means for Investors]
    https://osam.com/Commentary/the-earnings-mirage

  • Mark Shinnick

    “lines” work for me.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    so you’re the EXPERT.
    😉

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg

  • Ronebadger

    WAY tooooo L O N G… my ADD kicked in after 2 minutes. He couldn’t just boil that thing down into a few paragraphs?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    me too. it’s the weekend, I figure *someone* has the time.

  • ridingwaves

    AMRN- FDA approved heart disease pill (DD required) Announced plans to push out hard and raised guidance last week. PNF chart has 35 with double top breakout….22 would be sweet entry or stop, tough day to judge it but volume almost at XLF clip….breaks out here and 34 might build in fast
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8d62db216b39ed4ca73ce6f80de5b19298b0c0f6724e3d8a24f178c240a0be6a.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Took off a bunch of tvix that I left on by accident when the MKT closed early and I got caught up in something. +5.5%.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Their next twisted task was deciding that Boeing wouldn’t tell or train pilots about 737Max differences. Their earlier achievements included ZIRP.

  • BKXtoZERO

    He he he….no. Just dumb luck

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    ..like I’ve said – “pick your battles”.

    In your case, pick your restaurants carefully.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/294636c79266cadeb7fec55de4e5e222ed0b2cfc1bcb1da3222eb8717eef1622.png

  • ridingwaves

    BREAKING Shelton says she wants Fed rate cut, in part, because Europe is going to devalue euro

    Mole you got gold? Does she know something we don’t know, or is LaGarde going full on negative yield, massive monetary expansion, the french like to do that….

  • Darkthirty

    Didn’t read it, but I’ll try to condense it. The reason profits are overstated is because they can. What that means to investors is BTFD, fed has your back. Succinct enough?

  • Darkthirty

    Add the channel starting 6/28…..

  • Cyd

    At Custer National Battlefield. My parents arrived last night surprising me. They almost always stop overnight in Spokane and make a two day drive to MT. A picture from where it all took place. It’s chilly and light rain. Very peaceful and you would never expect that one of the most famous battles of all took place right here Here is a picture overlooking where some soldiers fell
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8ddc7fc8277739b017e7b8fdb1231fc0e49ad23c869eb59848962e932aaa05fa.png

  • BobbyLow

    Looking like we might re-test 3006 before COB. If it does, it’ll be the third day in a row that the futures high from the day before was sold off in the morning and then began to rebound by late morning and throughout the day. Eventually this pattern will stop but for now, I’ll take whatever I can get.

    I got hit for 5 Points on my first long at 2982.25 when I got stopped (by a 1/4 Point) at 2977.25. But I got right back in long at 2980 and am still long with a pretty wide stop. Price at last print was 2995 so I’m pleased so far. We’ll see what price does as we get closer and closer to the EOD.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    it’s nearly a Holiday. I’m neutral on the whole thang.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m only concerned about the price action for one day at a time for now. After another learning curve and getting rid of most of my day trading jitters, it looks like I might have made the right choice. I eventually got stopped on my second long today for +10.5 points but more importantly, I had a solid 4 day week with 6 Wins for 36.75 Points and 3 Losses for 11 Points for a +25.75 Point Net gain for the Week.

    This is by far a totally different game than anything I’ve ever done but I actually like it and I like it even more when I start and end everyday in cash. 🙂

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes
  • BobbyLow

    Excellent piece.

    I especially like the historical view.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    sounds inefficient. but to each their own.

    long till MidAugust IMHO.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f157b7cbb01a4af8fc6417e0ebd237af9c8c4d3f3b149cb67e590db4c429c34d.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    let me hack in a little envelope, LOL.
    I’d like to see it dip just a tad bit lower.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17443602422&a=447191104

  • ridingwaves

    most excellent..

  • BobbyLow

    This is where we’ll have to agree to disagree on what’s efficient and what’s not. How can you say long until Mid August? You’ve been around long enough to know how much shit can happen between now and mid-August. Are you saying that if the S&P dropped 1,000 points between now and then that you’re still going to be long until Mid August? Based on what? Althought it’s not impossible, six weeks is a long time in doggie years and market time for a forcast like that GG. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks RW.

  • ridingwaves

    I think the fed nominee I quoted below on Euro devaluing read it earlier…:)

  • BobbyLow

    Yep this is some crazy stuff. WTF are these people thinking? They can only see as far as the nose on their faces.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Cyd is out, I expect ‘the other half’ to be swinging by…I’ll just drop this soybean fail here:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SOYB&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58155603241

    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    so much drama. you need a nap.
    see’ya next week.
    😉

  • BobbyLow

    No drama just facts. 🙂

    Have a good weekend GG.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Ascending triangle, if Cyd & RW are correct.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a10857039d5f2eb81c49c2bdde866709cf115b171d4b2f7c1dffe6aba2bd2025.png

    “Zimbabwe B!tchez” – Gold knows.

  • Darkthirty

    You were the one with the mini nuke?

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes
  • Cyd

    You don’t see this Wild West in California Meeting Julie and her husband in Cody tomorrow A second museum is opening tomorrow at the Buffalo Bill Center of the West
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/023ebe581850b11ab7f5249ae555347ce395f4286c2b1aec7c0b5bf47829496f.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    3PM.
    spurs optional.
    😉

    https://centerofthewest.org/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    ..I have some very attractive beachfront property in AZ for sale.
    Any takers? going once…going twice..
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5b4278ff757567b3edebc66651cb733b02aebac3a5ae8a1588b887e5d7b5ffa9.png
    THIS IS a SECOND event, on Friday, after the original Thursday event.

  • Ronebadger

    Cody museum is the best. I met a lady at the Red Lodge Octoberfest who gave me free tics.

  • BobbyLow

    After taking my “nap” and getting a good night’s sleep to rest my tired “old” body, I want ask you a few questions. Why did you commet with a zinger about my trading sounding inefficient in the first place? Were you trying to help me? I don’t think so. If you didn’t like my trading style why not say nothing? I was at the end of a very good week with my new trading plan. I wanted to follow up and put out my actual live results with a system that began its infancy just before I posted about system building a few weeks ago. Probably nobody really cares but I wanted to show what’s possible.

    Furthermore, when I was swing trading, I posted most of my trades entries and exits win, lose or draw. When I’m day trading it’s a PITA to do this as each trade comes up. I also find that it can become an ego thing which is NFG.

    You post many charts everyday but I rarely see you post what open positions you have or when you have any skin in the game. I also rarely if ever have seen you post a loss. Just sayin. . .

    Lastly we came on board here about the same time and I enjoy “most” of your humor. Above all, I’m not competing with you or anyone else here at ES. The only person I compete with is myself.

  • Mark Shinnick

    “This is a good day to die. Follow me!”

  • HD

    So the narrative at SPX 3000 is just the same “but the VIX!” /// 🙂 got it

  • Darkthirty

    Did you get crabs too?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Cyd told me you went to San Diego on a vacation.Ever hear of “The Great Outdoors” for God’s sake.I mean don’t get me wrong but …. !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    ..hey! I told you many times. You like straight lines, I like curves.
    deal with it! and if you count the waves behind the girl, I will slap you.
    LOL.
    Welcome Back.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2974643db710454fa9c97203c04097d3cbca08b26b502ce7acf3bc856efee5ca.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The bull elk are in velvet in the Rockies. We weren’t able to get close and watched them with a spotting scope.
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys if you ever want to bail out of the big city Lander ; Saratoga and Cody are beautiful places to hang the hat and raise a family This house in Cody would sell for probably 1 1/2 million in California.I can see why people want to leave CA
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    For those of you who don’t know Cody is the east entrance to Yellowstone National Park and beautiful country
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    nearly 200K for a unabomber cabin?
    and no privacy, look how close the neighbor is!

    puullease.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2b388c0a4fc9d6b4e4a9a9a20f8a115599a3372e5f725be52d558100f3e3d622.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    while you were out, the weekly did a reverse course at a major level.

    next leg down would stop at the fan line, IMHO.
    but Cyd would have nothing to do with it.

    said Soybeans were the future.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ff663211d93c0392fb6e1135c99a82f813e082118ec9de9045d848d1460e21aa.png
    given the 4 year history (SLV), one would have a better chance with DeutscheBank longs.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Well Yeah GG It’s on Kitty Creek Road You always pay a premium anything Kitty
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    My disqus is all screwed up
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Ha!

    If you want real value, you always go with Grizzly Lane.
    😉

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/74-Grizzly-Ln_Cody_WY_82414_M73779-06651

    1.3Mill

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Gg There is a dude ranch for sale too That would be fun
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    no. riding horses is a pain in the ass.

    LITERALLY.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG We know someone that has llamas.They spit on ya
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    over rated fuzzy mini-camels.
    bah!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG We are OK We nailed ADP off the 89 ema.
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Cyd still has SLV and WFC short
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    {yawn}

    I’m riding the DISney cable car.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    really?
    I have WFC long. I warned her. I *will* take her money.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    no dividend, no yield. ugh. toxic!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Looking at WFC chart 48 is top banana
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Both are growth stocks
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    49.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG We are having a summer storm with lightening right now. MT can get some big forest fires
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    So GG You were in San Diego when the earthquake hit ? The Yellowstone cauldron blows were a memory. People here don’t even think about it
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    nope, I scattered home by the 4th.
    missed the whole shebang. like you said, I’m a sly fox.

    I’m thoroughly informed. LOL
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-10/seismologist-warns-people-ought-be-concerned-about-socal-quake-swarm

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    do the Buffalo ever get struck?, instant BBQ.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Only sly foxes get zapped Very common occurrence especially during mating season lol
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    that would explain why you hike so much.

    ..free fox stoles!!
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/9b/7c/d5/9b7cd5e9b6234043549e3effac9594f4.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG What is really unreal to see is a wolverine.A grizzly bear will walk around one of them, I had one snarl at me and I ran the 100 yard dash in world record time. No stopping at Go to collect $200
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I’m checking out, big week at work.
    have a good one.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Me too GG Possible big week for me too Invariably everyone at work picks up the slack when I am gone. I will know tomorrow. Have a great evening GG
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m known to do that.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @disqus_qkFlPoMLUZ:disqus @gold_gerb: Check out the Mad Max cabin:

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2902-N-Fork-Hwy-Cody-WY-82414/225900970_zpid/?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Saratoga CA? No way I’m moving back to that nutty state.

  • Ronebadger

    Too many fruits and nuts there?

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    I don’t believe so. Never have heard of such a celebtration.