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Brief Wind In Our Back

Brief Wind In Our Back

by The MoleJuly 1, 2019

Statistically speaking the month of June is a crappy time for equity traders. However 2019 continues to thump its nose at dry statistics, and petulantly delivered us a nasty HV sell off during the traditional earnings stretch between April and May followed by a LV run up during the June Gloom.

So it’s understandable that I’m a bit hesitant to pounce on July now and pimp it as the one good month before the launch of the late summer bear party. Besides if we dig a bit deeper things aren’t really as rosy for July as they seem on the monthly panel.

Apparently what really pushes July into positive territory is week #27, which started today. And what follows for the next six weeks is a seasonal summer churn from hell.

Whether or not it’s going to play out this way this year of course remains to be seen. If we plot the historical performance of each month as a curve we see a distinct trend change in 2008. Mmmmh – I wonder if something significant happened that year….

So yes, you probably guessed it. It seems that FOMC easing for some reason has shifted the dynamics of July, plus most of the boost during the past decade apparently has occurred in week #27.

And it does not end there either. As we are in a short trading week any significant upside is expected to be painted either today or tomorrow, as Wednesday the 3rd is half a trading session and of course on the 4th we’ll celebrate Independence Day.

Right on cue the E-Mini has already gapped higher at the open on Sunday night and continues to head higher. It’s quite possible that we are going to see new all time highs for Independence Day.

Unfortunately I missed the re-entry on Friday after getting stopped out at 0.75R a day earlier. Yes it sucks but you can’t expect to enter a boxing ring and not get punched in the face a few times, snowflake. It’s all part and parcel of being a trader – Ms. Market loves to dish it out here and there.

And let’s not forget that sometimes things go our way as well. Good example for that is crude which dipped lower on Friday but missed my very conservative trailing stop near 57.50.

I’m keeping my trail at break/even in copper as the price action remains to be pretty volatile. It’s not unusual to see on a contract like copper so best to keep a wide berth until copper continues on its merry way.


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Shameless Plug

In case you missed it last week: I am delighted to announce the official release of my Price Action Masterclass which represents a cumulative six months effort to produce a comprehensive tutorial on reading and understanding price action without the use of superfluous indicators.

This extensive series covers everything I have learned in nearly 20 years of interpreting price action for my own discretionary setups. You know, the same ones I have been posting on this very blog almost every single day since late 2008.

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Public Service Announcement

Please be advised that I won’t be present Thursday and Friday of this week. I wish I was heading to a cool lake in the pyrenees, but unfortunately I’ll be stuck at home in front of my workstation working to finish the next big surprise I have in store for you guys. No rest for the wicked!




About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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