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The Squeeze Is On
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The Squeeze Is On

by The MoleFebruary 26, 2018

Happy Monday everyone! I am happy to report that several of the entry opportunities I posted last Friday are faring well with hopefully more ill-gotten gains beyond the horizon. On the equities side the E-Mini is getting ready to put the squeeze on whoever remains short at this point. And let me tell you right now – if you are a bear, or are still holding short, you are probably not going enjoy this post.

About 2/3 of the late January sell off has already been recaptured and in my mind the recent spike high near 2750 was the final line in the sand for the short term perspective. Every tick higher henceforth now adds additional defensive context for the longs and increasingly reduces the odds of another leg lower. At least on a short term medium term basis. Long term I have a few more thoughts below the fold.

The Zero indicator (you are a sub I hope!) showed us weak but consistently positive participation on Friday, further bolstering our long perspective.

A continued vega squeeze on the VIX has been leading the charge higher as visualized by our trusted SPX:VIX ratio – here plotted against just the SPX. At least short term everything is pointing higher.

Thus it is not surprising that I entered long the ES on a breach of 2731.25 as planned (in the subscriber section – sorry I can’t give it all away). It is now time to advance my stop to break/even.

Crude was slow going at first but now seems to be picking up the pace. I’m advancing my trail to < 62.50. The formation on the daily panel suggests continuation higher.

Gold was another juicy entry last week and I’m now advancing my stop a few ticks < break/even (I didn’t correct the comment on the chart) which is near the 100-hour SMA right now. Reason is that it’s quite possible that we’re going to see another retest of that one which is why I’m putting it < 1332.4.

My BTC campaign wasn’t as lucky and immediately proceeded to ISL after entry. There currently is a new attempt to produce a short term floor but it would be too premature to enter here. The medium term trend still supports the longs here but if they continue to be unable to drag the horse across the 11,800 mark then bad things may happen. That said – a convincing spike low with a retest would put me into another long campaign.

LTC on the other hand is holding steady and I just advanced my trail to the recent spike low. As you can see, no drama, no rumors, no excitement here – simply entries taken as we would in any other market vertical.

More entries and a few additional market perspectives below the fold:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
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LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • Yoda

    The potential for further short squeeze has just been jinxed:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e32d2ebf3c7e81a28351c8099ad2c1528d17741742463d3a4e159535323800bc.png

    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    They turned on the credit pump, excellent. {sigh}
    [HYG]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=W&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p52411080602

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Gold has been quite a frustrating trade for me the last couple of days. GL Mole.

  • Tomcat

    Resistance based on two occurrences???

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    don’t challenge me, it’s Monday.

    I feel so triggered. Where’s my safe space?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d8b77ec7aaa6938a12ec03577c6b8522e8b0694816f54a0da7889289d337090c.png

  • Tomcat

    +1

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Snort…

  • BobbyLow

    I put the golden horse in the barn for the last couple of days. Not enough movement in either direction for me to enter. Took profit on Long Crude this AM. Will look to reenter around 63.70 ish. If it breaks down I’ll short it. Still long Energy Companies via ERX (for now).

  • HD

    GM all
    Tuesday: durable goods, Case-Shiller, consumer confidence and FED chair Powellsโ€™ testimony. Wednesday: Q4 GDP (est. 2.5%), the Chicago PMI and pending home sales. Thursday: jobless claims, personal income/spending, ISM, construction spending, and auto sales. Friday: consumer sentiment.

  • HD

    5 waves up clear on the SPX chart, above 50DMA to keep me objective. TL held,,, -path to 2911 seems open.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s everyone today?

  • Darkthirty
  • HD

    that’s even better! I’m promoting you to Monday link duties ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Tomcat

    youngish (I hear 45 is the new 20), in good health, and living in the best country in the world in which opportunities abound…What’s not to like???

    Congrats on the CL trade. Looks to be a big winner.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Zimbabwe?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    woo hoo

  • BobbyLow

    It’s always good to begin a new week. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Darkthirty

    Part of the daily tune-up

  • Tomcat

    Seems like the PMs are getting little love and lagging pretty badly in what otherwise is an entirely GREEN day

  • Tomcat

    New beginning???

  • HD

    How low can VIX go? If we see a 4% rally in equities VIX might lose 60%?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    There is no clear formula for that – it’s all based on risk perception – hence ‘implied’ volatility.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NICE! Plus SegWit was added to Coinbase as well last week. And finally, if you are an active Coinbase trader and cheated on your taxes then you’ll probably get a letter from the IRS soon as they just received 13,000 account profiles of the most active U.S. traders.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m a little quiet today as I feel totally off. I think it’s allergies – can’t think straight. For some reason allergies are really bad for me here in Valencia. Never could figure out what triggers it… probably all the fields nearby that get fertilized.

  • Julie

    Hi GG I have 12.87 and 13.28
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, its useful to plot its local trends and supports similar to other charting, noting it always tends to have a deflator tending to correlate to equity support. Its when you see local areas of chart support getting tested and broken that the likelihood of good crushing from equity rally appears to increase. We seem to be entering that scenario at the moment.

  • BobbyLow

    It’s the beginning of a new beginning. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Julie

    Hi Chief Hay fever is a bummer. I am usually hit in April. Hope you feel better soon
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    Your immune system could have been weaken at some point in your life? Genetical predisposition?
    CBD oil may help in some cases.

  • Julie

    TLT up a little on a long But do not like a close below it’s open Will monitor today’s close. Down some in a short probe USO
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    The squeeze, to me, is starting to get long in the tooth…

  • BobbyLow

    It’s been in the 70’s and 80’s here in NC for the past few days and stuff is beginning to bloom. My wife has begun with her pollen allergies already. It’s a bit early for Spring but in another couple of weeks we’ll probably be in full bloom and pollen will be all over the place for awhile.

  • Darkthirty

    16 minute pump – 5 minute let off

  • Julie

    Yoda 16 minutes is all you guys can go ! Sheeesh !
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    I’m always on my back….All I can do is screw up

  • Yoda

    For all to be pleased equally, what is received should be given back in the same proportions as received.
    But yeah, Age’s a bitc*

  • Yoda

    XD

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Does that include undressing and dressing?

  • Julie

    You guys are funny ! Yes all should be pleased equally But 16 minutes …. ! Lol ! Looking to short XHB support 41.60 strong resistance 42.95
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    No, came up suddenly – yesterday I was ripping it up at the gym for two full hours. So I’m pretty sure it’s seasonal.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did he just call me old??

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    As you can see my ‘short term’ chart is an hourly. So there ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Darkthirty

    I swear my lady friend had an orgasm last night……………she damn near dropped her nail file

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    … she was using to fix the TV remote.

  • Julie

    My husband and I have even broken the bed ! What a night that was ! Lol !
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    We should have met when I was 200 years old
    [Sigh]

  • Darkthirty

    Need a trampoline…….

  • Yoda

    Now this is getting technical

  • Yoda

    Fart
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • HD

    little ST -D building.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s why you install shock absorbers in the frame. Amateurs…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    tell me about it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B91ElW-TOu4

    record for unhooking speed.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    she *thought* it was the remote.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Julie

    When market closes off to buy a stop watch.and an hour glass Gonna time it tonight ! Lol !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    silly girl.
    he said….”do you wanna Buck?”
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    http://blackjackwhitetails.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/buck.jpg

  • Julie

    GG He is way too horny ! Lol !
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    786 retrace of 3 2775-2777

  • Julie

    Darkthirty 2777 is two equal legs up
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Can tell where your mind is…..2 legs up?

  • Julie

    I am wrong my bad reading another index Sorry
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    yup I couldn’t see that on ES

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ha ha.
    so they do have double entendres in Bozeman.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Julie

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d5a096b75cce8e034b8816aa7b2b0ded33b5181339d6392a1d06ffc5571c54bb.png 2800 is the approx. upper Ichi cloud boundary which is a strong resistance JULIE

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    I just found a new help for sinus infections. The recipe was called Sinus Infection Killer. Sounded good to me. 1/2 cup warm water, 1/4 cup really good organic apple cider vinegar, 1 tbl raw uncooked organic honey, 1 tbl organic lemon juice. Fix and take sips throughout the day. Or as you feel so inclined. I just make and drink one creation per day.

  • Julie

    Thanks Sharon Your recipe for the flu was great Within 2 days felt 95% Again Thanks Will write it down
    JULIE

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    You are most welcome.

  • ridingwaves

    This kind of played out…..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODRoEHpUdrU
    ridingwaves 13 days ago
    spy hourly at 8 weeks looks like inverse H&S with 280 target but targets have a lot of bullet holes….
    Thumbnail

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a9e47e7abdda33d8d834f469a2b9a00201ad6a4f9d930458e25fd57a3a88247c.png

  • Darkthirty

    I make master tonic and haven’t been sick since I started 7 years ago

  • Julie

    Hi RW 2800 is the approx. upper cloud boundary matching SPY 280 in chart posted below
    JULIE

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    recipe please

  • Darkthirty

    1 lb each of horseradish/ginger/white onion/garlic/hot peppers all ground up fits in a gallon glass jar pretty good. Top it off with cider vinegar with the mother. Shake it up everyday for a month, it mellows in flavor with age. Strain it off and gargle rinse your mouth and swallow a shot a few times a day if you’re real sick. One shot will do it if you catch it soon enough……

  • Darkthirty
  • ridingwaves

    2900 is not out of question…then dump….my mojo is on fire for indexes, not so on some symbols…..

  • BKXtoZERO

    You rock dude……

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The camera was on the wrong side.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s how I feel these days…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yup, nothing will survive that tincture, including you!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, as I said this morning: THE SQUEEZE IS ON!

  • BKXtoZERO

    You also said something like “I think what happens next” and gave a “forecast” which I thought you weren’t into doing,,,,, but you sure turned out to be right!

  • BKXtoZERO

    and you also said something like “I think what happens next” and gave a “forecast” which I thought you weren’t into doing,,,,, but you sure turned out to be right!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @BKXtoZero – I’m glad you brought it up, no need to delete your post:

    “You also said something like “I think what happens next” and gave a “forecast” which I thought you weren’t into doing,,,,, but you sure turned out to be right!”

    My response:

    I probably over extended myself that day. It’s not healthy to project forward as it leads to entrenched positions and bad trading decisions. Which is one of the reasons why I’m hosting this blog – once posted you can’t hide from what you wrote yesterday – it’s public record.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Yes. Yes you did.


    The local bar was so sure that its bartender was the strongest man around
    that they offered a standing $1000 bet. The bartender would squeeze a lemon
    until all the juice ran into a glass and hand the lemon to a patron. Anyone
    who could squeeze one more drop of juice out would win the money. Many
    people had tried over time (weightlifters, longshoremen, etc.) but nobody
    could do it.

    One day this scrawny little man came in, wearing thick glasses and a
    polyester suit, and said in a tiny, squeaky voice, “I’d like to try the
    bet.”

    After the laughter had died down, the bartender said okay, grabbed a lemon
    and squeezed away. Then he handed the wrinkled remains of the rind to the
    little man.

    But the crowd’s laughter turned to total silence as the man clenched his
    fist around the lemon and six drops fell into the glass.

    As the crowd cheered, the bartender paid the $1000, and asked the little
    man, “What do you do for a living? Are you a lumberjack, a weightlifter, or
    what?”

    The man replied, “I work for the IRS.”

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    See my response above ^^^^

    Per today – that was legit as the signs of continuation were already on the chart. But two weeks or so ago I was clearly projecting forward – not a good idea. The fact that I turned out to be right most likely was coincidence. Which is a big problem when you get away with ‘making calls’ like that over the long term. In the end you start believing your own bullshit.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We learned from the best!!

  • Darkthirty

    Thought it would be ragged first time I made it, but after $30, a lot of grinding (horseradish needs to be ground outside), and a month of shaking, it was pretty damn mellow.

  • Yoda

    That would be my penultimate target before the double top

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Richard Adler

    Not sure what you mean?……

  • Yoda

    Let us just pretend it has a meaning. You don’t want to see a mean Gerbil, do you?
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Richard Adler

    Absolutely not

  • Julie

    UNP Fills the gap. Looking for a reversal below the lower dotted horizontal blue line which will be a false breakout of the cloud and a lower uptrend line for a lower high to possibly short. USO 12.87 is a resistance USO today’s high 12.91 and close 12.86. JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2a28f62ab27ff30ac47dc72079f6f376eec2ed483e52114672de216f95510ebb.png

  • Julie

    USO two equal legs up from February 15 is 13.15 12.81 is 0 618 IMO the recent advance looks corrective esp. with the diminishing volume not confirming Now approaching overbought https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0c2acf0cb0f332b44dc25bafc3c13c05cbfd6225526870521af5ca3a703d8330.png JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I only deleted it because I thought I was replying to your post, then it turned into a NEW post, so I copied, deleted and then replied. I traded against you anyway for a while… tight stops, made some money, then I just expected the rally to keep going as you expected. I expected it too. Anything beyond a weak bounce is time to question any bear thesis. Once I felt like I was pushing and not getting what I expected, I actually scalped long in the 401K too. I am back to break even after 4 TVIX swing trades.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    if price were to roll over symmetrically, tomorrow next day would be it.

  • Julie

    How do you clear trend line resistance ? Simple gap above it INTC JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e2031012eb0e1e3e852dc990872359bc95930c035ae9497f4512ddced2456e33.png

  • Yoda

    Coincidences, until they aren’t…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Master Tonic has this reputation of working, lots of people swear by it. I’m really curious …never messed with it.

  • Darkthirty

    A 97 year old appalachian gentleman told me they used it as kids….called it head knocker

  • Julie

    WTW Oversold strong support 68.62 The daily 21 ema is 68.98 and the baseline (21) is 69.10 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f4f79784321dc5d4575515a6a99cdc654162fb1ed2afa7e533cb2c8362da5ef5.png

  • Julie

    EBAY A dragonfly doji at the 61.8% retracement. Several threads prior I was looking at the failure at the 50% retracement and a short with a bearish close below the 5 ema and the conversion line (8) It closed below the 5 ema but not the conversion line (8). It bounced off the conversion line (8)Now perhaps a failure at the 61.8% retracement JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/73d4c669a8f8af05eddd85e25de4c3e5d09eedfded92f346024524d6e75adb6c.png

  • Julie

    WTW IMO with the triple negative divergence RSI and negative divergence MACD Looking to go down to approx. 61 support ; 55 ema ; upper cloud boundary and lower Keltner channel https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/372399bffa2a4c249031998f5216a604d2ca55ee71cc947cb86491ab6e84f3f5.png JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    @molecool:disqus Here’s a new long term momo indicator for you. A drop in pregnancy rates appear to precede recessions. Ladies, keep us in the loop please ๐Ÿ™‚

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43195765

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Wow. Thank you very much. However, I will have to pass on that one. My tastebuds have never been able to handle hot, spicy foods at all. I will pass this on to my sister though, she has good hot spicy tastebuds and my children ended up with their Dad’s tastebuds also. I will send it on the them too.

  • Darkthirty

    The only burn you get is when you gargle and its killing off germs. I thought it was gonna be nasty, but I’ve drank worse whiskey. Whiskey doesn’t taste good….you associate the taste with the effect. A little burn or be sick……….your choice!