The Final Hurdle
The Final Hurdle
Welcome back! Despite much fear mongering the S&P futures have been holding strong over the long weekend and are now mere handles away from breaching their final long term hurdle. In retrospect that falling diagonal resistance line on the daily was the perfect bear trap – and once again one we fortunately didn’t fall for. As a matter of fact, if you dropped by here last Tuesday morning then you may even have snuck* yourself a few long positions ahead of this ongoing short squeeze as the writing was clearly on the wall.
Right now this morning we’ve got a beautiful diagonal on the short term panel. I started to form late last week and judging by this morning’s tape it continues to be observed. Great sport for grabbing a few more longs if you lightened up over the weekend. Put your stop below ES 2095 and Bob’s your uncle.
I was talking about the final hurdle and actually there are two which are almost identical. There’s a weekly NLBL at ES 2105.25, a monthly at ES 2105, and another monthly at ES 2110.25. So it’s fair to say that it’ll most likely take a bit of doing to hop over that. The odds of immediate failure here are moderate. Although the tape seems bullish as hell there is a chance that we may see one more final shake out which would in fact produce some sort of inverse H&S on the weekly panel. However should that scenario unfold then there would be a very strong case for long exposure near the 100-week SMA near 2025.
CAD/JPY is looking extremely juicy here and I plan to be long on a dip to about 84.4 – stop goes below the now rising 100-hour SMA and that means below 84.6.
More below the fold – please meet me in the lair:
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* I know it’s supposed to be ‘sneaked’ but I’m firmly in the ‘snuck’ camp – sorry. But I do prefer ‘misspelt’, so I’m evenly balanced between tradition and linguistic innovation, especially when it comes to clever personal insults.
