Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The spoos managed to recover a little overnight but I still don’t see any major mojo in either direction yet. I can appreciate that fence hopping is not everyone’s style and I respect Scott’s style of holding the existing short entry. If you recall on my end I managed to hedge myself via the NQ and that’s still working in my favor, thus I haven’t lost out due to fence hopping during the recent whipsaw. That is the one advantage of discretionary trading and it’s something that’s very difficult to train to an automated trading system.

Be this as it may nothing really has changed on the equities side. This puppy may still swing either way and I patiently await resolution. This is not a question of opinion – simply one of putting yourself on the right side of the trade during a honeypot period. I don’t know which way it’ll resolve but what I do know is that the losing side will pay a big price. FWIW – trading styles may be debatable but the current inflection points appear clearly to be observed – so however you play this thing keep an eye on the daily and weekly NLSLs and the 100-day SMA.

Gold has been taking a little breather and is now facing the Pincer maneuver by the 25-hour and 100-hour SMAs. I expect it to bounce around here for the next hour or two and then pick a direction. Mind that NLSL at 1406.3 which is good until well into the NYSE open. But there’s one contract that just came into sync – please step into my lair:

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Addendum 9:44am EDT: I just realized that we painted a shooting star yesterday and there are implications:

The series of lower spike highs and spike lows means that we are in a bonafide downtrend on the daily panel. And that means that a breach of a shooting star low represents a short entry. Which now gives us two strikes to be short – the NLSL at 1631.5 and the low of the SS at 1624.75. If we close below those two today then it’s sliders time.

However, until that happens we remain stuck above an important inflection point and the bulls have an opportunity to pull this thing out of the mud (stranger things have happened in the past few years).

Have fun but keep it frosty – this tape is designed to soften you up and draw you into bad trades.

Cheers,