Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Not much going on this Thursday morning – the spoos have lost a bit of mojo since last night’s close and are now testing the 25-hour SMA which still has little support value. The NLBL at 1887 seems like a reasonable line in the sand as of right now. Above it we may actually get some traction and as long as we stay below it I expect more of the same (i.e. gyrations and running nowhere fast).

As a quick reminder of where we are – here’s the E-Mini volume profile. We are back at last evening’s long trigger and since there’s no volume above and plenty waiting below this continues to be a very low probability setup (which is why I only devoted 1/2R). The reason why I took this in the first place is on the off chance that we resolve higher, which would probably happen quickly. But the onus remains on the bulls to show any ability to make it above 1890 – the more often they fail the more they risk a massive slider lower. Which is why I’m also keeping an eye on any valid technical short term triggers.

Another way of playing this is to be short below about 1885 and long above 1890 as it roughly represents our current Maginot line. Given the current context these types of setups would fare better than Ivan style triggers which do best in more directional tape or at least if they trigger near major inflection points (i.e. a small IP-S near 1890 would be a great way to get positioned). What I’m planning on doing right now is a mix in that I am long 1/2R courtesy of the RTV-L on the SPX and will add 1/2R if it pushes above 1890. Then take it off the table again if it drops below. Yes, you’re right – not for the faint hearted and it takes a bit of work.

Crude looking very solid here right now and I want to be long again above 104.03 with a stop below the SMA. Once again an example that not being hypnotized by the endless gyrations in equities is very good medicine as there are always easier victims out there to be subjugated. See you guys later this afternoon – keep it frosty.

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Cheers,