Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The spoos started creeping above the 100-day SMA overnight which finally triggered my stop. I am now effectively long with a stop below the SMA as the odds now support a positive EOW and EOM candle painting. Price has spoken and for me it always has the last word.

To be crystal clear – this actually pertains to my medium term positions – taking a long here on a short term basis does not make sense. I hope there are no confusions about trading short term (i.e. swing trading or scalping) vs. daily or weekly trades. Granted, these types of definitions vary widely but in my book anything that closes out at the bell is a short term trade. Anything I keep for a day up to a week or two is a medium term trade. Long term trades span several weeks and theoretically can last years – personally I rarely keep anything running over two or three weeks these days.

AUD/JPY looking like a possible short if it starts dipping below the 25-hour SMA. Until that happens I’m long with a stop below. What’s complicating matters on the long side is that hourly NLBL just above which the two SMAs should push us toward. IF we get a short entry then I would go in with only half a position size as I would prefer to see at least the 25-hour falling, so be disciplined with your stop.

USD/JPY – I’m currently long with a stop below the 25-hour SMA. The odds are a bit lower here a i’s been running a bit sideways lately and perhaps this is a last kiss goodbye. If so I wouldn’t be short until we drop through the 25-hour. But the same concerns apply in that we want to see that one dropping to give us a bit more support overhead.

Silver seems to be in a really bitchy mood lately and we’re better keep a low profile. I’m starting to suspect a big seller active near that drooping diagonal and thus I’m short with a stop near 34. Should we breach that then I’d be happy to take on a long expecting a jolt cola induced ride higher. It’s a real shame they don’t make this stuff anymore – Red Bull is for posers.

Public Service Announcement: In case you missed it – you can now follow my updates on Google+. Please add me to your circle and be sure to be on the forefront of my evil market schemes.

Cheers,