Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Since Monday the E-Mini has remained stuck in classic honeypot pattern which continues to strain the patience of market participants. And it probably has taken a financial toll should you have been foolish enough to fall for any of the many traps that have been presented on both the up and down side. The unfortunate news as of right now is that we are no further from resolution and I respectfully recommend that you stay the frack out of this mess until we either see a close above the 100-day SMA or a drop below 1400. It is permissible to take contrarian trades at both 1400 and 1410 (yes, we’re dealing with a lousy ten handle range) but be disciplined with your stop.

If you were fortunate enough to follow my NZD/USD long setup from yesterday’s briefing then I recommend you take profits now as this express elevator should find itself without a power supply in a short order.

Here’s a freebie to appease the leeches: Silver is continuing its walk of shame and I’m short with a stop a few ticks above that 25-hour SMA. Very willing to flip it to a long if I get stopped out but I would probably wait 20 pips or so to make sure it’s real (see the little fake out late Tuesday).
[amprotect=nonmember] More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Soybeans is getting into the Christmas spirit as it’s practicing the nutcracker maneuver. I would keep my eye on this one and take whatever breach we get first. Yes, could be a fake breach but there’s no way of knowing – in general I would favor the upside here for now.

Natgas – again running like a hare today. I’m long here with a stop below the 25-hour. Not going to push my luck though – if stopped out I’m outta here. Natgas scares me…. reminds me of that latin girl I dated once – consistently erratic.

USD/JPY – I’m short with a stop above the NLBL. This is an interesting formation as the 25-hour is still rising plus we have what could turn into a last kiss goodbye (LKGB). Under normal circumstances the odds would be lower here but that NLBL is exactly where I would want some additional resistance. Only caveat is the 100-hour below – I may be out there depending on velocity.

EUR/CAD – in limbo right now but I’m taking a breach of either SMA.

CAD/JPY – long here with a stop below the 25-hour SMA. We ‘may’ see a break-down here followed by a retest of the 100-hour, so I would be short if we drop below 83.

Bonus Chart:

GOOG is doing its own interpretation of the Christmas nutcracker routine. Keep an eye on this after the open. The odds slightly favor the downside but I’ll take either breach.

Cheers,