Tonight We Dine In Hell

Seems like tonight we dine in hell – I wonder what’s on the menu – fortunately I like it hot and spicy. Not sure what triggered the sudden move today and neither do I care as I have long given up to intellectually explain equity gyrations. Life is better that way and I can focus on taking each day as it unfolds void of directional bias.

There was an inside candle setup on the spoos yesterday but I didn’t dare suggest it as the prior three got chopped to pieces. Should I have perhaps? I don’t think so – hindsight is 20/20 and as I’ve pointed out on numerous occasions: in this crazy tape the only way to win is not to play. Some of you however may wonder whether or not we are looking toward a more substantial correction and let me try to answer that.

Technically we are a bit thin on context up here – the daily has sliced through its 25-day SMA and although that has happened once before in early January this needs to be reversed right away or it could have legs. Of particular interest to me is the weekly NLBL at ES 1809 – if that one gives we are probably dropping another 50 handles.

Here’s the volume profile chart and as you can see we are steeply dropping off after 1817.5. Anything below 1812 is bearish territory. You can try a long here above the volume hole but I would be cautious – why you’ll see below.

The YM is just looking sad – it has been for days now. The weekly NLBL at 16,114 is the only technical hurdle that I could imagine would offer support. Especially given the volume profile chart:

That’s right – I warned you about that in reference of the spoos – that thing sliced right through its volume hole and it may just continue. Again, the weekly NLBL needs to provide support here or we are going DOWN!

That’s all I got for today – no setups as futures and forex have painted big moves in the past day and chasing along here is very bad medicine. Let’s see if we can establish support/resistance zones and then we may consider some new entries across. FWIW – I’m actually pretty jazzed about the prospect of a correction here. Technically it’s very difficult to cut charts and setups in effervescent tape without prior resistance/support levels. So this could be the type of shock treatment the market has been secretly longing for.

Finally and in case you wonder – yes, the TF long I was spouting about went to the woodshed yesterday night at break/even. Nothing lost but a bruised ego. No, not really – as you know I don’t get married to my trades 😉

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Cheers,