Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
U-Turn
60

U-Turn

by The MoleOctober 18, 2017

Over the past two sessions almost every market vertical suddenly turned on a dime, the one exception of course being equities as downside corrections have effectively been illegal since November of last year. You’d think retail traders would love it but it’s become increasingly clear that the pool continues to shrink, the only exception perhaps being the stubborn buy and hold brigade.

2017-10-18_zero

Which just for the record I have absolutely no issues with, it’s a method of investing that has had obvious merits during what history books may one day call the big bull market of the 21st century. But when I saw a renowned market analyst proudly proclaim that the consequence of extensive quantitative easing had resulted in more positive investor behavior I couldn’t help but roll my eyes at such a manipulative attempt of misinterpreting what has clearly been a direct consequence of moral hazard due to questionable and at best experimental Federal Reserve policy.

Just look at that Zero signal on the right panel – we’re seeing minimal participation and at this point one wonders who/what exactly is pushing this tape higher. If you’re long here and buying then please raise your hand in the comment section. <crickets>

2017-10-18_NZDUSD_stop_out

Alright, let’s review the ‘damage’ – I’m putting it in quotes as we of course got out with ample profits due to well placed trailing stops across all campaigns. NZD/USD is out at 0.75R – a bit earlier than anticipated but I’m already drooling over the new formation on the daily panel, which I think will soon bestow us with another entry opportunity (depending on what the Dollar does of course)

2017-10-18_AUDUSD_stop_out

AUD/USD also got hammered but we managed to escape with 0.75R as well. Nicely played!

2017-10-18_USDJPY_update

Not surprisingly the USD/JPY is officially on fire and I’m moving my stop below that NLSL on the hourly panel which also seems to line up nicely with a previous congestion range. That locks in about 0.8R which ain’t bad for a day’s work.

2017-10-18_USDCAD_update

USD/CAD for some reason seems to be running out of mojo which is a shame as I thought we’d see a blast higher judging by its previous ramp. The diagonal I painted on the short term panel looks supportive, so let’s see if it can drag us out of the mud. For now however we’re hanging on by the skin of our teeth as that dip lower almost stopped us out.

2017-10-18_crude_exit

I actually got very lucky on crude as I was exiting yesterday and wait for the roll-over. Which saved me from what would probably have been a less favorable stop out. However at this point I don’t see an ideal entry opportunity and I hope it won’t run off without me.

2017-10-18_ZN_stop_out

10-year bond futures – also out at 1.25R – this one looked so promising but at this point it seems that it may actually drip below the rising diagonal I painted (how rude!) and continue lower. Back on our watch list for now.

2017-10-18_soybeans_stop_out

Soybeans netted us another 1.25R plus minus on where you entered. I’m not too sad about this one either as the roll-over is approaching.

2017-10-18_sugar_entry

I only have one promising entry and I’ll just throw it to the leeches. Sugar isn’t exactly a popular contract but I’ve watched its daily BB compress to the max over the past few weeks. Which leads me to think that the current floor formation may just have a chance of transitioning into the short squeeze of hell. Let’s hope that it will do just that as I’m long with a stop below 13.74.

evil_separator

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a full subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. FYI – a Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • Mark Shinnick

    The $ x’s appear to be something nobody believes. Its a powerful setup now able to make all hell to break loose against the miners.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That just ruined my day 🙁

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Sad. I’m at a loss for words.

  • Mark Shinnick

    One of my bucket list items is to possy around the planet to manhunt this kind of killer.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Cool.

    I don’t have eye bleach, but here is a happy elephant story.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1405443/Elephant-rescued-farm-six-hour-operation.html

    What do you do when you are in a hole? ..stop digging.

  • StockTalker

    Waiting patiently…………..Dipped toe in /ZB

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Hey gang… long time no see. Yeah, I’m bored too as this market just grinds higher one inch at a time with no one trading it but bot’s I guess as the volume is so light on the SPY that you’d think it’s a half day right before Christmas… or a quarter day, LOL.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    This is certainly an OMEN.
    no doubt about it.
    hey Red.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Hey Gerb… glad to see you still around old friend.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bot miners, tight stop.

  • Julie

    GG MOLE OJ RW MARK SCOTT RED DRAGON STALKTALKER and EVERYONE

    I violated one of my rules ……. The daily 5 ema which I use as a filter. POR today’s high so far a penny under the 5 ema . I am watching POR closely …. I should have waited for a bullish close above the 5 ema. POR and the other utilities possible triangle forming

    Lesson Learned NEVER VIOLATE YOUR RULES !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Everyone screws up…acknowledging those mistakes can forge us.

  • StockTalker

    Stay in your comfort zone, if you don’t your feelings take over.

  • HD

    Ahh A week in the mountains. I feel completely lost. Are we still mad at the NFL? Still going to totally destroy NK? Still record shorts in the VIX? The important stuff.

  • StockTalker

    You didn’t miss anything at all. Will be spending some time in the woods shortly to fill me freezer.

  • HD

    I notice the /VX roll and already down 8% so those poor bstardos that think COT is a fade are still getting creamed.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yep, part of the business.

    I’ve also given up on pennies. 1,2,3 cents – who cares? switch to Nickels.
    😉

  • Julie

    GD Hope you had a great hunt and wonderful time outdoors. In Montana almost always hunt in the snow which is great !
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Been to Montana for a few mule deer hunts, non-guided near the powder river. Beautiful place.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    I overestimated my conditioning going in. Gym equipment doesn’t really translate to hiking steep and nasty with packs on. We were successful though. GL on yours!

  • StockTalker

    Nice! Elk hunting in Wyoming

  • StockTalker

    Lol, no bambi’s. All mature animals.

  • Julie

    Stalktalker In MT always prepare for weather extremes in the Fall while outdoors whether hunting ; fishing ; recreation etc … Not only is hunting great this time of year but fishing is great too ! Many sportsmen combine both which we do ! hunt in the a.m. then fish ! Unreal !
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Bag the elk and deer in the morning (MT deer and elk are concurrent) then go fishing ! Too Much ! Love it !
    JULIE

  • HD

    ha, must be nice, almost sounds easy. We had 1 hour after first lite to locate and get on them w very long shots. Tuff. Still pretty warm in AZ. Mostly nocturnal.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    HOW IS MY CREW?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie

    Great Mole In a post below I made an important comment …… A Lesson learned !
    JULIE

  • Julie
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Let me catch up. I was on coding duty all afternoon…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, everyone is still literally Hitler and by going to the mountains you automatically became a redneck which means you’re now Republican. Otherwise we banked some mighty coin until yesterday when a bunch of stops got run (but in trailing fortunately).

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You guys just can’t get enough of killing! Monsters! 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Report to the lair for a debriefing and an extended spanking.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey mate – long time no see and I mean a very long time! How have you been? Still trading?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Are you kidding me? The Gerb will be buried in the lair!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Why do you think I intend to do the sniper class in AZ?

  • HD

    Sept open to high was 44 points (2474-2518), Oct now open to high 44 points (2520-2564). Tomorrow is 30 year anniversary. Notable minor 5 = .618 of minor 1 is in play. I would expect a min 10 handle hit.

  • HD

    Ha! The GOP actually makes me violently ill. Zero patriotism, total lack of character assessment, a dreamy ideology but terrible at actually governing.

    I just like to eat meat and can handle killing it myself.

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Thanks Mole… yeah, still trading. Not doing to many trades though. Just a few each month and lately once a month. Not many of us old bloggers left around. Glad to see you still are.

  • Julie

    XLE relieving overbought condition with a consolidation pulling back to a support and rising 21 ema catching up JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d2a8147fdecf7739875925a4013bcaeffb48faf7809e3404863df043c83e4679.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Reinforce the 3pers.

  • StockTalker

    Oh oh, dollar failing

  • Mark Shinnick

    Couldn’t help this…:)
    https://youtu.be/NO04VXBIS0M

  • Julie

    POR A trading range play. Trying to cut a fat hog in the ass …. Oversold range play now an inside day possible triangle. Breaks down then looking at the (1) 233 ema (2) lower range support (3) lower green channel JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/692031124815bdb139b39fb16b1b22c641225d8539756c490a544bba4362e944.jpg

  • Julie

    RXDX Check thus out guys ….. A possible exhaustion gap at 19 resistance …. A break outside the channel and back in the channel JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b1fab4d2ef32ee20ef1de1a48d13b0713a072df22f476f9f43af582136c1c4bb.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    watch for last kiss good bye, and then fresh lows.

    looks promising.

  • StockTalker

    Jumped on the /NG bus, div 60 min

  • Julie

    Stalktalker IMO UNG must get above the daily 5 ema 6.38 matching closely with strong resistance approx. 6.40 Gonna watch this like a hawk. Just saying Stalktalker JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4926b9f09c22abedbecea5e4d89909bf933c624dc70e9ad234175d88d8ce98a2.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, still a bit iffy here…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    RUT,
    it’s been a slow leak for the Month of October.

    Bulls, if it’s going to thrust higher, now would be the time.
    just get that RSI over 70!
    keep your potassium up boys.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4efbcba47070c86a5e6a53a35333365f0b54400fa14bfd4a0a718c3e2cca770b.png

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Strong contango in that market gives it a natural downside bias. Bottom line, a chart is not a chart is not a chart. It’s a choppy mess to me, I’d wait until it showed confirmed signs of a short squeeze or a new leg lower. That market is the widowmaker its been in a bear market for 10 years

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Blast from the past!

  • Wave_surfer

    > If you’re long here and buying then please raise your hand in the comment section.
    I am long DIA a somewhat longer term position.
    I have no plans at this time for imminent buys or sells.

  • BobbyLow

    🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III