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Under The Weather
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Under The Weather

by The MoleDecember 15, 2014

So I was starting to feel better on Saturday when I made the mistake to head to the gym and hit it hard. I started to feel super exhausted on Sunday morning and woke up today withย a cold. As you can imagine I’m pretty miffed about myself – it was supposed to rain Sunday and Monday (and it did), which is why tested my luck and went to the gym in the first place. Did I ever mention I absolutely loathย winter?

2014-12-15_spoos_briefing

It’s funny how the bears are always pining for massive corrections which they most of the time are unable to participate in. It’s not just that large scale corrections only happenย perhaps 5% of the time – it’s also that they are extremely difficult to ride out. Just look at the gyrations on our hourly chart. Up – down – up – down. Almost every retracement is recovered and stops are run in both directions. This is usually how it goes except for the big (third wave – cough cough) wipe out somewhere in the middle.

Right now the spoos are at the 25-hour which only represents soft resistance. However if you are looking for a good place to be short then this is probably as good as it’ll get. If equities continue higher from here then we are looking at a much more complex formation and who knows how the rest of December is going to flow. The second hurdle is obviously the 100-hour at around 2025. So these are the two inflection points right now: 2010 and if that goes 2025.

2014-12-15_DX_briefing

The Dollar is looking weak this morning and I grabbed a tiny short position here with a stop at 88.9. The reason why I’m risking it is because of what I’m seeing on the Euro:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • newbfxtrader

    Haha you said third wave…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Tornado in Los Angeles, cardinals going to post nfl season, Mole wave counting? Hell has frozen over!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I was coughing!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Must be feverish delirium ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • mugabe

    Nice to see some Elliot Wave counts- gives structure to the markets.

  • Skynard

    Unloaded most short positions, adding today. Already added to /6A, /6B and /ZL. will wait and see what happens at open to add to remaining short positins.

  • Skynard

    Looks good to me, added at resistance.

  • Skynard

    Kind of difficult to say weather we get our XMas rally. Bulls need to get above or else!

  • Skynard

    Europe back in the red, shall see.

  • Skynard

    Could be 3 0f 3 as long as everyone else is counting:)

  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks.

    Added some more Weekly USO Puts this morning at the Open so my Spread is close to Neutral with the potential of getting more Bearish if the rout on Oil continues.

    Also went in with Today’s current Flow of AUD/USD and GBP/JPY (Short)

  • BobbyLow

    There has been a XMAS rally all year. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Darkthirty

    thinking b of 4 of 3. can’t trade today,so……….max if 4 17500 dji

  • BattleZone

    Opening gap 50% filled. I’m pretty happy to have sold 2012-ish at the top of the 15-min opening range. Lightening up a little bit here.

    Good luck today folks.

  • Skynard

    Below SPX 2K backing the truck……………..

  • Skynard

    Luck not involved, if it were I’d be broke:)

  • BobbyLow

    My trading luck ran out in 2001. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Skynard

    Lol:)

  • BattleZone

    Haha I stand corrected! Lemme try again…
    May the concrete workaday forces of implied probability eventuate — at least this time — in your favor.
    And may you be disciplined enough to ring the register according to your plan. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Skynard

    Trouble in paridise:)

  • Billabong

    Closed out FB long +1R still holding GE short.

  • BobbyLow

    Drew first blood for the week on GBP/JPY.

    Mid week Shenanigans with the FOMC are on the horizon. The FOMC usually causes an extra mating season for Sharks. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • newbfxtrader

    Good one ๐Ÿ™‚

  • BattleZone

    Opening gap filled, I’m lightening up a little more. Will let the rest run.

    In the real world, we’re getting all the way up to 38F today! Woot!

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Newb.

  • Skynard

    Sold hard

  • BobbyLow

    Nice Billabong.

    I believe FB is a case where I was guilty of having a severe generational gap. When FB IPOed at around $25.00 (I think) I thought that there was no way that this thing would ever take off. Like I mean who cares if someone posts their day to day minutia all over the internet?

    So FB triples in value and now trading at +$78 and proves WTFDIK?. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Only clear after the fact – useless for trading.

  • BattleZone

    I seriously considered buying GOOG at the IPO. Back then they didn’t make any money but the search tool was already life-changing. I’d never bought a stock before and I didn’t overcome my inertia. More recently, wasn’t tempted by FB, but TWTR was interesting. Platforms come and go, but core utility layers maybe not so much?
    Disclaimer: I still have never bought a stock.

  • BattleZone

    Nice start to your week.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How’s everyone? Having fun playing the swings?

  • Skynard

    Possible turning point in this market.

  • BattleZone

    ES 100-day SMA is at 1983, if anyone cares.

  • ridingwaves

    1994 spx needs to hold or further down we go….

  • BattleZone

    Loving it dawg!
    Sorry to hear you feel crappy. How you holding up?

  • BattleZone

    You mean a longer-term bear turn? Or intraday, to the bull side?
    I would say both, perhaps. Zero div trying to form.

  • Skynard

    If this div does not hold bears will take control here.

  • Ronebadger

    WAIT for it…..

  • Skynard

    If this is a W3. looking for 1800 SPX

  • BattleZone

    They sure seem hungry. Cluster of ES pivots at 1965 may get tested.

  • Skynard

    Are you kidding, they are starved!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    JNK still soggy, let the carnage continue!
    Muwahaha.

    RBL & UCO into hell with a handbasket.

  • Billabong

    So you went straight to commodities/currency?

  • Skynard

    Flipped to long for the moment, div both hourly and 5 min

  • BattleZone

    Hey nice, me too… Ready to get back short at a moment’s notice.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ps. I’m a bit sarcastic.

    support did occur back in August around this median.
    [SPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=15&id=p44521916693

  • BattleZone

    A friend introduced me to FX about ten years ago. Diddled around with that for several months, learned a lot and had a few nice trades… didn’t lose any money but didn’t feel I could find an edge so I bailed. In 2007 I ran into some productive futures traders who opened the door for me.

  • BattleZone

    Well that didn’t last long. Back to selling.

  • Billabong

    CL close to pre-market low … break this and down we go again.

    EDIT: this post wasn’t posted in a timely fashion … CL hitting new lows

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Eating soup and trying to relax, thanks.

  • Skynard

    Staying long, bulls will try. To /ES 1990

  • Billabong

    Trying to protect those bonuses?

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks BZ. This Pair is a real mover and is one of my favorites. My Forex trades are all OCO’s after entry meaning that with few exceptions, they will either hit my initial target or hit my initial stop loss. In this case, I had a 97 Pip Target and it hit. I left about 70 Pips on the table from the most recent low but I don’t care. This trade took less than an hour and a half from entry to close and that’s the way I like them. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • newbfxtrader
  • BattleZone

    Thx, I was interested how you’d handle it, and just guessed you might give it some leash. I had a nice price but with a purposefully stingy stop, am unwilling to oppose this selling with much risk.

  • Skynard

    Lol, see when I see that huge neg signal will be long

  • BattleZone

    Well I bought 1975.75 for a second try. My last attempt before pivots.

  • SirDagonet

    Dang, your reflexes are fast to be so old… ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Skynard

    Using the signal mostly, must have some leway for swing trading.

  • BobbyLow

    I had some sellers remorse after taking profit on the short side (SCO Stock and USO Puts) on my Oil spread on Friday. So I thought over the weekend, if only price can hold up until the open on Monday so I can get some more puts and it opened flat to slightly up. So in this case I got a little “lucky”. Spread is still slightly Bullish but can withstand more downside from here without any significant pain.

  • BattleZone

    Yeah, I’m still learning when/where it’s safe to swing. Prefer to try once or twice for just a few ticks, but interested in less entries with wider stops as an alternative.

  • Skynard

    To VWAP them short

  • BobbyLow

    LOL. Just the opposite. I use OCO’s so my reflexes don’t have to be fast.

    Step 1. Have an Entry that qualifies under my rules.

    Step 2. Get Filled with an order that has a stop loss.

    Step 3. After getting Filled, change the Stop Loss order to an OCO, “One Cancels the Other” with a Limit Order at Target. and a Stop Loss Order at Maximum R.

    Step 4. With very few exceptions, Leave the Open Orders alone until it is either a Winner or Loser.

  • Objectively_Bias

    Some nice bottoming signals are firing at these levels. Worth a couple SSO lottery tickets.

  • BattleZone

    Lightening more at yesterday’s lows 1990. Last bit running.

  • Skynard

    One more punch above VWAP for stops.

  • BattleZone

    Vwap ding! I’m gonna stay long on my last contracts, will flip short if we sell below yesterday’s lows. That’s a sturdy bounce off the 100-day SMA, perhaps it will hold.

  • Objectively_Bias

    Let’s not forget this years favorite bounce level…

    Edit: Make that last 2 yrs.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    an hour later, 10 point bounce off the median.
    woohoo.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    blast. respect at the envelope band.
    [HYG]
    87.07 intra
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p94427155006

  • Skynard

    Short again, SPX 2K test.

  • BattleZone

    Yep.

  • Billabong

    Still looks like it wants to go down. The only TA tapering off is volatility …

  • Billabong

    I play FB on both directions … The key for me is not getting greedy.

  • BattleZone

    Sittin’ above the vwap, luring the bulls, is how it looks to me.

  • BattleZone

    Vomit Comet rolling over…

  • BattleZone

    If you don’t mind me asking, it appears you allowed at least 8 points of drawdown, in order to get back to vwap for 10 points of profit?
    (Not trying to be a dick, I am carefully weighing my own approach against others, and your approach seems to work well for you.)

  • Skynard

    Wow, Europe selling

  • Billabong

    The strange ranger on the equity side is HL … positive and another buy signal … we’ll see if it holds into the close.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Sentimenttiming

    One thing I will say about evilspec..they don’t fall in love with one side. So many are waiting for a crash or the end of the bulls market. Sure it will come-but when? The SPX has provided TRADERS almost 550 points-down-up and down again. Crash waiters would need to be in 2 different crashes to total that kind of move.

    Forget the bigger picture-and trade what is in front of you. The December 8th turn was predicted-as was the October Low–and the September high. Sentiment extremes will always happen at highs and lows. Knowing how to read how the market will react to sentiment-is what’s important. Low date has been identified-but we are seeing some extreme fear hit the markets over the last 2 days. Trade both ways-but wait for the turn date to get aggressive. Good luck

    http://www.sentimenttiming.com/success-stories/

  • Skynard

    Always, you did not know?

  • Skynard

    Playing with fire, do not over think it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Great participation here today – you guys are trading the house down. Sorry I can’t be more active but I’m trying to just relax and kick this f…ing bug out of my system.

  • BattleZone

    For sure, and I don’t think I am. I was already long from the bottom and had lightened up considerably.

    When we got bogged down above the vwap I sold 1994.50 and I like that entry… If we get buyers and I get stopped out for a few ticks then so be it. If we sell off a bunch, as we have so far, then I got a much safer/profitable entry than waiting for us to break below the yesterday’s lows at 1990.

    Do you think it’s over-thinking to pay attention to action occurring off the 100-day SMA? Seems like, if any MA’s are worth a thought, that is probably one of them. Curious what you think.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The Master does nothing,yet he leaves nothing undone.
    The ordinary man is always doing things,
    yet many more are left to be done.

    -Peace

  • BattleZone

    That’s a good investment. Be well.

  • BattleZone

    Zero was awesome this morning btw.

  • BobbyLow

    Hey Mole, I deleted a post that looked like Spam a short while ago. If it’s possible to look at deleted stuff, you might want to take a look at it to be sure. I tried to just delete the Link to the Website but couldn’t do it so I deleted whole thing.

  • SirDagonet

    the sentiment post? I just sent Mole a PM & said maybe he should let that guy take over for a while… ๐Ÿ™‚

  • ridingwaves

    serrano peppers are your friend

  • BobbyLow

    Yes.

  • Skynard

    Does not look good for the bulls here.

  • BattleZone

    That was a nice second rejection at 1995, but I’m not convinced yet.
    (Luckily, it doesn’t matter what I think. ๐Ÿ˜‰ )

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ll have a SPX 1986, over easy, and a side of guacamole.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, I actually saw it and was about to delete it myself. You beat me to the punch. Thanks!!!

  • Skynard

    Going to burn Bro

  • BattleZone

    Anyone looking for a decent graphic statistics package for OSX? Have a look at Wizard… it’s super smooth, as ergonomic as it gets, and fast.

    How robust is it? Well I did manage to choke it with 66 million ticks of IQFeed data, but it actually loaded it (90 seconds off my flash drive) and even rendered the first chart before I ran out of RAM (16GB, other apps running). It was still trying valiantly when I shut it down.

    Here’s a screenshot of Wizard looking at CrazyIvan profit/loss. Lower panel shows distribution separated by equity curve correction True/False.

  • BattleZone

    Works for me! Popcorn and beer in effect.

  • Skynard

    Nice!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Lower highs and lower lows.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    close 1989?
    dam it!
    !@#$!@#$@#$.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    maybe the Russian interest rate will shift things tomorrow.

    The damage has been done to the energy market.
    Yes, a lot of the summer Ukrainian drama was overpriced.
    This is beyond a simple ramp-n-camp at this point.

    http://s18.postimg.org/jdg9x03uh/winter.png

    -GG

  • ridingwaves

    definitely a good time to own gold in Russia….you can now buy a lot of rubles… I know 2 people whom escaped their country via gold, one was fall of Saigon, the other out of Czech***

  • Darkthirty

    Master tonic. Make a gallon, never be sick again

  • mugabe

    good time to own US$, too, if you’re Russian!

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Crude Oil in Aggressive Ambush territory … weekly buy setup is present (notwithstanding it only being Tuesday) … NG was another classic FTP (Fade the Paper) gift yesterday … a neat setup that I have shared here before).

    The potential pickings are ever-present.

  • newbfxtrader

    wow @ usd/rub….

  • Skynard

    Just a matter of time, slingshot:) Yen is another

  • newbfxtrader

    Uh oh….

  • Ronebadger

    There’s “uh-oh’s” all over the place…

  • Skynard

    Having fun yet?

  • mugabe

    not surprisingly, bonds on a tear

  • newbfxtrader

    Not this month. Busiest time of the year for us. Very tiring. Trading lightly.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah. But /ES for example is at well defined support. Best to pick ones that have only air above or below…..

  • newbfxtrader

    Heres another if you are interested.