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VIX Up 8 Days?
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VIX Up 8 Days?

by MoleApril 10, 2012

Well to my knowledge the VIX has never closed up 8 consecutive days. Here is the stats and occurrences for 7 consecutive days.

Occurrences.

Results:

Careful here- virtually all of this data is during the dot.com boom (eg upward biased I presume).

In any case- not exactly bearish.

Here is how many times the VXO has closed 8 consecutive (mind you we are not nearing 8 today, but 5). 4 data points- neutral results.

In any case- the data appears favorable, but some caveats.

(1) There is a ~88-90% chance the VXO is >=13 in APR-JUN time frame (using implied lognormal distributions of seasonal data).

(2) There is a ~59-64% chance the VXO is <=20 in APR-JUN time frame (using implied lognormal distributions of seasonal data).

(2) There is a ~43-48% chance the VXO is >=20 in APR-JUN time frame (using implied lognormal distributions of seasonal data).

This simply implies the VXO generally does not explode here, but also has remained very very low.

Finally here is the hourly SPX- not bullish if you ask me. That trend line should be watched.

I will talk more on options later this week- I think it will be an eye opener into some greeks.

-volar

Mole here: Thank you for a kick ass post, mate – I found another juicy setup for the subs and decided to tack it onto this one:

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More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect]
[amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

Actually, after reading Volar’s update this chart might make a LOT of sense. Anyway – we’ve got ourselves a wonderful short setup right now on the 30-year treasury futures. Until of course we bust a tiny bit higher – a breach of 141’27 would be bullish as hell and probably get us all the way into 146. This is one of those setups worth waiting for and how could one resist? Hey, not bad for doing all this on a little lappy in Barcelona! 😉
[/amprotect]

Cheers,


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.

  • Anonymous

    thanks.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    lovely.
    selling off hard to extreme price/support level.

    uncharted territory.
    I will relay it to my grandchildren after trading is outlawed.

  • volar

     anytime

  • Anonymous

    have you been watching europe today? massacre. estoxx now -4%, and dax futures at -3.2%. it’s actually pretty quiet on the US markets, considering this and HG reversal. NQ still only 3.5% below the top (DAX now 10% below the top).

  • volar

     ya and AAPL only down 4…

  • Anonymous

    Looking forward to your post on the Greeks Volar! Can never learn enough about options…

  • Anonymous

    AAPL 2% from its top. incredible strength. but also a position with “high potential energy”, if it starts falling. it happens sometimes, even tech stocks fall sometimes.

    (meant as reply to volar)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    not that quiet.
    a Wall Street muppet jumped from a 7-story window
    http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxssnouzbC1r5taaq.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    reload!!!

  • Anonymous

    hm, so far it looks like a nasty day ahead. tape just can’t pick a support. AUD/JPY down big, HG down and europe down big. might be, that US markets are only half way to their daily losses.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    The page or puts:) 

  • Anonymous

    For the hell of it I changed symbol to $SPX and got 1850.  Almost choked on some Easter candy!  

  • Anonymous

    Wow! Looking ugly for Bulls here, picked up some OTM puts for the close.

  • Anonymous

    Tell me about it…1355 doesnt seem to be holding up on the ES either.

    Not sure if I want to stock up on puts just yet…but damn am I glad I didn’t buy puts on TLT after considering it last night.

    So sad that I didn’t keep my AUD/JPY short – i just didn’t want to ignore the alert to go long 

  • Anonymous

    yep. watching NQ 5 min chart here. except for the first few minutes, it’s been staying put under EMA20. 3 slight crossings so far and EMA 20 slopped down all the time. In short: looks like a bear flag.

  • Anonymous

    US markets are only down half of European markets because the latter were closed yesterday and playing catch up

  • Anonymous

    They had it coming!

  • Anonymous

    DAX down 10%, ES and NQ 4-5% from their tops so far.

  • Anonymous

    XLF lost the 50 on the daily and is leading us lower.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/d31e8d5e-6015-4d66-a2ad-a88d64f378dc/2012-04-10_1514.png
    Ok this pair is either saying. We are in the middle of the healthy sell-off OR oh shit markets are getting really bad.

  • Anonymous

    I dont understand that pair. GBP is safe haven in that pair?

  • Anonymous

    If European banks are in trouble does that affect GBP?

  • Anonymous

    Who’s looking forward to another Step One – VIX buy signal

  • Anonymous

    that means I probably set it up wrong…

  • Anonymous

     AUD/JPY says this is pretty serious – down big from the top, but on the other hand – it’s now at the support and touched lower channel trendline.

  • Anonymous

    I would say so. The BOE can do what it needs to do fast like other Central banks. ECB is much slower in response time.

  • Anonymous

    Yes I view the GBP being the safe haven  Especially compared to the Euro. Infants are always more vulnerable to harsh conditions. 

  • Anonymous

    Euro and GBP represent the respective economies that are pretty much functioning on the same playing field but with different players on their roster.

    The UK has one tax base, one authority, one small economy. A Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer calling the shots.
    On the Euro front, you have multiple mini economies, one guys supposedly calling the shots (Draghi) but who in essence needs to deal with two greater powers (Merkel and Sarkozy) but ultimately the fortunes are dictated by the weakest links (P.I.G.S.)

    So you can play the same set zone but obviously one currency will be stronger than the other. Not sure if my ramble made sense.

  • Anonymous

    I think we can afford to wait on this pair…no need to be early on it.

  • Anonymous

    Thx Drew. Makes sense.

  • Anonymous

    Wonder if the ZL poking its head in positive territory for the first time today might mean a potential VWAP test…

    EDIT – NVM, ZL didn’t close positive in the 5 min frame…

  • Anonymous

    They’re all reporting next week so this could get reversed or exacerbated very quickly. Can someone say volatility ahead? 

  • Anonymous

    remember many of them had to pay into mort. settlement agreement payout…earnings might not be what is expected…

  • Anonymous

    Day like this should produce more selling ah? Need to see AAPL come off it’s pole:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    quick, someone check the PnF chart!

    Bullish Target $819

  • Anonymous

    actually… i disagree. this one is pretty straightforward – the trend is down and it’s in a channel. pretty clear picture, and moves within this channel are usually sudden and fast, no time to react. it just depends on the time frame you trade, if you will trade all the touches of the channel borders or just the main trend.

    what exactly is that you would want to wait for?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Market close < 5min
    ..in case you are mesmerized.

  • Anonymous

    5 min building a case possibly.

  • Tronacate

    Would like to see bucky get on more of a roll….

  • Anonymous

    What? That’s crazy!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I don’t make’m.
    remember, that could be $819 in 2013.
    We have no clue.

  • Tronacate

    I have an ipad……it collects dust…..

  • Anonymous

    yeah, but it does it best from all of the pads. admit it.

  • Fibz

    alcoa rocket launch

  • Tronacate

    Not very flexible…….pretty toy…..not much else.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I dunno – works well for me, what can I say…

  • Tronacate

    Angry Birds?

  • Anonymous

    re-shifting in AUD/USD. Putting sell order at 1.0320 and 1.0250

  • Tronacate

    I’m just aggravated with no flash…..and the overall inflexibility…….yeah….it’s cool for flying nav apps etc…..but damn itunes…….grrrrrrrr

  • Anonymous

    http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2397331,00.asp Definitely good but remember it runs a phone OS not a real one. You can see Mole having trouble when he tries to muscle with data. You can get a windows tablet and run windows8 on it. Runs a full OS and has enough horse power for your needs. Cons battery life.

  • Anonymous

    http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2397331,00.asp you should try this! Put windows 8 on it. It will fly. With a full OS to boot.

  • Tronacate

    I had to do computer gymnastics just to download some guitar instructional videos……..hard to get the right video format for the ipad to play.

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    so you are picking this pair up at support immediately as it touches?

  • Anonymous

    daily volume bars approx 50% taller than usual.

  • Anonymous

    I have a windows tablet running windows8. Its awesome. Does not have the battery life but runs everything I throw at it. No need to convert anything!

  • Tronacate

    I’m dumping my iphone too…….need a bigger screen.

  • Tronacate

    ipad is exercise in frustration…..pisses me off everytime I try to do anything but buy a fucking itunes product…

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    no, i’m only shorting it at upper channel border, immediately as it touches it, yes. trend is pretty clear and it’s down.

  • Tronacate

    I like windows 7 better than OSX………freaked me out…..

  • Anonymous

    Thats a personal choice. But ipad does not run OSX. Its limited.

  • Tronacate

    I know…….I have a mini tht is on OSX…….ip[ad os just sucks……period

  • Tronacate

    At least the new Windows actually run compared to vista…….yuck…….

  • Anonymous

    Vista was terrible. Try windows 8 on a tablet. Its awesome. You have none of the limitations of the ipad. Battery life is low though.

  • Fibz

    I would prefer not to have a “smart phone” at all, just something basic.

  • Tronacate

    exactly……..what a piece of junk OS……..I’m going to try 8……..

  • Anonymous

    My .02 for this morning. AUDJPY is a very strong Asian session bounce play after such an outsized move.

  • Tronacate

    I hate when my phone is smarter than I

  • Anonymous

    So when you are travelling you dont need logmein or gotomypc or whatever. Its your full PC with you!

  • Anonymous

    Mole, are you able to do Daily ZL updates from a foreign land?

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    what price level are you looking to get in?

  • Anonymous

     can it drill teeth? exactly.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    16 days down the staircase.  ouch.
    a relief rally to 83.40 descending fan-line would be welcome.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    weird no reaction from copper…..

  • Joe_Jones

    not me. 

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Took me 15 minutes but it’s done 🙂

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com/ MyLifeMyTrade

    Consider AAPL 666 in a few days for short trade.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Toughen the F up.
    no sympathy – ya tourist!
    😉

  • Anonymous

    Thank you guys and everyone for this analysis and set-ups… i would truly be lost without you guys!!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    It’s beyond getting real now, it’s Real.
    watch for any snap back, trade your plan, etc.

    [BPSPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34759737423 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ps.  My Bull friend, is down to 9% profit YTD.
    after a potential 12%, he’s sweating now.

    I say potential, because I convinced him to take some off the table in late March.
    (I can smell irrational exuberance, and as Mole says ocassionally – Don’t Be long)

    A week ago said friend, was reluctant, today he wishes he did MORE! how the tide turns.
    ps. I have no freaking clue as to the next several days.
    -DG

  • Anonymous

    A little off subject here, but the subject of College=Jobs bothers me. Universities were intended for research in your line of study.  It was not intended for getting a *job*.  However, I do think those colleges like brown mackie and others really need to be reined in because they are throwing a ridiculous amount of loans out to students that are usually marginalized and of lower income. Those type of colleges IMO are very guilty of providing false hope. Sorry for the rant. Back to business gents

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    just like the War machine, it’s a racket.

  • Anonymous

    I thought you meant going long mid-session when it looked like the SPX was continuing to paint lower lows.

    Yes it’s in a channel and yes I agree, you snooze you lose on this pair. But you can also get whipsawed to death.

    Given where the market ended and the overnight session ahead, I could stand going long with a target of 50-75 pips on the upside.I’m not sure I’d be short here…

  • Anonymous

    Interesting how gold is actually up for the day while equities tanked. Could be good for a short, but it hasn’t retraced enough for my taste. A run-up to 1695/1700 would be much better.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    take a ruler, and connect the highs since Feb 1st. (ignore the high wart in late Feb)
    now, break 164, and my tail will stiffen!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p04792636463

  • Anonymous

    Let us know when he’s underwater. It will be time to go long 😉

  • Anonymous

    AUDJPY long on the pullback here:)

  • Anonymous

    Question is…where to put the stop overnight 😛

  • Anonymous

    You need some gloves?

  • Anonymous

    Just tagged the lower boundary of my channel. Any lower and would not want to be long:)

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    wouldnt u want to wait for few candles to print like mole said?

  • Anonymous

    Haha candles are for pussies…

  • Anonymous

    Universities (these days) = high paid jobs for Vice-Chancellors, hangers-on, contractors, finanaciers, money to be made, at the expense of (too many) students, taking dumbed-down courses (students more likely to pay for courses they pass, better business model to dumb down)

    One good model in Uk was when college/university was free, but places were capped to the needs of the country. Folks that didnt make it to university, would have to do other things like apprenticships, tech-colleges, direct job entry, etc.

  • Anonymous

    He likes catching knives. Its not something you can treat!

  • Anonymous

    When in doubt. 50 pips.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Be careful. Big Aussie union calling on RBA to cut rates. RBA has indicated they might just do that in May. 

  • Anonymous

    LOL! You are right, here is the test:)

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    maybe wait for zero to print before buying audjpy

  • Anonymous

    Haha…yes I know. You taught me that =P

    I think I even developed an addiction to moving stops up to b/e like you do…

  • Anonymous

    If its the porn channel you’re talking about, target is the moneyshot and your stop is where you cry “Uncle”…

    Hehe…

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    colleges are like any other corporation, they just want to get bigger and bigger.  The california state college is definitely a bubble from my first hand experience.  The education system is lowering there standards just to get more money from stupid lazy graduates.

  • Anonymous

    They cant if you can default on the loan. The govt backs the colleges. You cant default. Hence no free market. In a free market the prices would have been reasonable.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    lets see how the lower b band shapes up.  currently at 48.67

  • Anonymous

    LOL! Right you are:)

  • Anonymous

    Hum, is that decision this week by chance?

  • Anonymous

    Hehe, not this one. It’s a bouncer:)

  • Anonymous

    I dont think rate decision is due this week. I will be taking aud/jpy long for a bounce with you.

  • Anonymous

    I mean why not right. 😉  Sometimes I like to take half profit once I’m making 30-40 pips, THEN set at break-even and let run the last 30 pips.  BUT for flagship trades I tend to only move to b/e once the price action is about 70 pips away. Obviously Im not currently running any flagship trades. Ive been in out in out. lol

  • Anonymous

    EDIT – your b/e moves have backfired on you lately I know, as they have on me.

    Whenever you say flagship, I imagine you rolling out an aircraft carrier….

    I just tend to trade the smallest lot (20-25K depending on the pairing) – so I’m usually one and done.

    I haven’t grown confident or capitalised enough to ever venture beyond. Still working on letting winners ride although being ruthless with stop losses has been learnt (the hard way)

  • Anonymous

    Was stopped out of /NG again, enough of that shit:)

    Someone mentioned 1.5, damn!

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    where are you guys stops

  • Anonymous

    I was gonna ask you about that one…

  • Anonymous

    I got in early at 82.80 when I looked at the channel its been trading in…so mine is at 82.30

  • Anonymous

    Been keeping an eye on /KC as well. The strength in the dollar is not helping either:) Not complaining, just an observation.

  • Anonymous

    That was quick, /DX open gapper.

  • Anonymous

    Interesting inverted hammer on the hourly AUDJPY

  • Fibz

    college = loans. loans and debt make the world go round. if americans ever become averse to debt, earth might stop on its axis.

  • Anonymous

    Yeah let’s see if it can turn into an inverted hammer reversal pattern
    Long with an initial entry at 82.71

  • Anonymous

    Keep an eye on soybean. Look up moles setup. Think its getting ripe….

  • Anonymous

    See that, you waiting for that old NLBL.

  • Anonymous

    Soybean? I am short already. Nice divergence on daily. I think it has a far way to fall.

  • Kudos

    Wait till end of summer when there is some seasonality on Your side. I tried catching ng 2 months ago and vowed to give up till August.

  • Anonymous

    Hello ladies. Today could be one of those CS days. I sense that market participants that are holding long and the dip buyers are hoping for this to be the correction we needed. IF 1360 proves to be the floor then onward we march. However, I’m still sticking to my theory that we are shifting into more normal policies, meaning we could see a weaker Aussie while equities continue to raise.

  • Anonymous

    My sell order for the EUR/USD has been triggered. 1.3140. ill put up chart later. I’m on phone.

  • Anonymous

    Zero FX is stuck at 05:22 New York time.

  • Anonymous

    Gentlemen, I would like to give a warning of hanging onto longs for to long. This is only MY opinion, but if I had a long position I would sell here and wait

  • Joe_Jones
  • Anonymous

    Still on phone. Umm EUR/CHF really close. 10 pip movement happens in a blink.

  • Anonymous

    Bah…I set AUD/JPY to b/e and that got taken overnight on one of its swings. HA…

    Sit and wait now…

  • Anonymous

    How are you managing the stop on this one btw? I assume as stop is going to mean nothing even if set because if it does fall through 1.20 because the SNB (unlikely), it’s going to knife right through it!

  • tradingmom

    Any way to get the Daily Zero updated?

  • Anonymous

    trade smaller use larger stops….

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Morning rats, afternoon Mole.
    Speculative T on the ES.
    if today finds a secondary low, the T-post is set. (blue circle)
    http://i42.tinypic.com/17rdr7.png 
    -DG

  • Joe_Jones

    It is updated TM

  • Anonymous

    Well I usually like to set my stop from 50 pips to b/e after it’s moved 50 pips ITM if I’m going to bed, which is exactly what happened overnight.

    Stops can be wider during the day…

  • tradingmom

    Thank you!

  • Anonymous

    Mole did it yesterday…if you still show old information,  clear your CACHE (go to Tools, then Options)

  • tradingmom

    It took a while, but I see it now.  Figures…more often than not, the problem’s on my end!

  • Anonymous

    Nice to see you back…keep us posted

  • Anonymous

    SPX backtesting the 50 on the daily right now. Short:)

  • Anonymous

    I was just putting in my short at 1367.25 when I was saying to myself “I’m pretty sure Skynard would short this…”

    Good morning!

  • Anonymous

    Good Morning,

    Premo:)

  • Anonymous

    I’m using Safari, and I just reload. Easier than messing with clearing cache.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Seems we’re close to a trend day, TICK 10 EMA has mostly been positive since the open.

  • Anonymous

    could be a three wave move up to 13K on dow again and then down…

  • Anonymous

    If it is, then the shorts come off because so far, that 1 zero mark touch has led to a bounce, textbook trend day, and if that’s the case, the bearish divergence on the 5 min should get discounted.

  • http://twitter.com/ThetaBeast Don

    I assume that based on $TICKS today is probably not a trend day? Anybody?

  • http://twitter.com/ThetaBeast Don

    Oh, now I read the post right before mine…anyway, other opinions?

  • Anonymous

    AUD/JPY is showing strength and the upper hourly BB is starting to point up. Next levels of resistance would be 83.90 and 84.61. There’s also a daily NLBL at 84.35.
    If this was the initial leg down on the SPX we could go to 1390/1400. There’s a strong layer of resistance there. 25-day SMA is at 1394. However, I notice a lack of hourly RSI divergences at the bottom which in all likelihood means that a new low is in store and we may fall short of those ideal levels. So far we haven’t even recovered the 50-day SMA which would be crucial for an extended move to the downside.
    All in all I’m not sure right now, but real bear moves in the past couple of years had the nasty habit of moving fast and retracing little, so it was often hard to get in once they had actually started.

  • Kudos

    What opinions? just look at it. Its not really mysterious

  • http://twitter.com/ThetaBeast Don

    Well see I pay for that info and sometimes it doesn’t come. So ok, I’m not as stellar as you

  • tradingmom

    Thanks!  I’m always around, but not so much during trading hours right now.  My son, who just turned 5, had a very serious accident about a month ago and I’ve been busy taking care of him.  He was pushed out the opening at the top of a medium height slide at preschool and broke his arm quite badly.  He needed surgery which was complicated and resulted in 3 days at the hospital.  He has some nerve damage and persistant pain, not to mention all the ongoing doctors appointments and physical therapy which are scary and stressful.  But, he is making good progress, and it wasn’t his dominant arm which is good.  But I’m never alone and he needs a lot of care right now.  Figures, seems like trading is getting good again!

  • Joe_Jones

    Sorry to hear that TM. I hope he fully recovers quickly.

  • Joe_Jones

    Anybody else missing the trend alert today?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    me!
    ;-D

  • Galazkiewicz

    At this pace, today is going to end with a very large range inside candle on the SPX.  It’s decided not to conform to the normal chop-after-trend-day.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I was not referring to Mole’s trend day alert, I was simply observing $TICK.

  • Anonymous

    Flagship triggered for the AUD/USD 1.0330

  • Anonymous

    I got stopped out in that surge above the 50 SMA

    Sitting and waiting.

    I hate when parents call when you tell them not to bug you at certain hrs in the day. ARgh…

  • Anonymous

    /CL is heating up and looking bullish for now after it recovered some lost support lines.

  • Joe_Jones

    If VWAP doesn’t hold, I’ll reload shorts

  • Anonymous

    Eesh…ZL is flat again, I hate it when that happens…granted bearish divergence but still…its dead Scottyyyyyyyy beam er up!

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    is the zero fx stuck again?

  • Anonymous

    The ship has sailed…

    *whispers – ORIGINAL PLAN*
    =P

  • Anonymous

    Time seems to be updating…but not the charts…

  • Anonymous

    Well i got stopped out of ES anyways after it pierced the SPX 50 day SMA. And I got stopped out of AUD/JPY last night (I set my stop back to b/e at 82.80 and that got taken out after it reached 83.30) 

    ZL is flat on the ES so I’m neutral now.

  • Anonymous

    Long bond is off 0.4%, I suspect it may still have some room to bounce up before initiating a short.

    Not keen to short it just yet.

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    is the zerofx stuck or is my settings?

  • Anonymous

    Hehe, still short and waiting for more sellers!

  • Joe_Jones

    Back in

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    thanks

  • Anonymous

    I’ll be praying for the little tyke….kids come back quickly and usually mend well…hopefully nothing lasts too long or permanent. 

  • Anonymous

    Pulling EUR/USD

  • Anonymous

    This ramp and camp kinda makes sense after the past few days and 8-day-VIX runup…just to work off some of the drop….we’ll see

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    copper is not bouncing will see how this resolves…..

  • Anonymous

    Good luck to the little guy in his recovery!

  • Anonymous

    Wouldn’t be out of the question or the first time…even if there’s more downside to come. 

    Massive drop, VIX soars, a ramp up follows to kill off some late shorts while sucking in more buying and killing the VIX, and then another drop. Rinse and repeat, 2 steps down, 1 step up…waltz away SPXIt could easily work in reverse too..

  • Anonymous

    if financials and oil back off that next step down seems pretty good…above sp1374 gives bulls a chance..

  • Anonymous

    Lets see if we get a gap fill, if so the market will not recover and continue down:)

  • Anonymous

    Too much USD exposure and correlation to the other position?

  • Anonymous

    Gerb – any place i can read up on these T’s?  i see you post these all the time, but i have to admit….i have no idea what you’re doing.  thanks!

  • Anonymous

    AAPL breaking own and on the edge of turning red for the day.

  • Anonymous

    That fruit stock is once again going to be the barometer for where the wind blows at this rate…

    We should monitor the financial and energy sectors and then there’s AAPL

  • Anonymous

    VIX weekly MACD in pos territory. First time since October.

  • Anonymous

    I am missing it. Thought about it at 10:18, then got busy.

  • Anonymous

    No need to chase, and who knows, it may bounce at this gap first before heading down again. We got flat ZL atm, things can get choppy.

    Your discipline will serve you well (I would be one to talk – every time i chase, i shoot myself in the foot!)

  • Anonymous

    I was actually waiting for someone to launch an AAPL ETF. Might have made sense given the stock’s price.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Hmmm…potential VWAP test? Aww but this thing was being so obedient and selling off! =P

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    the weekly chart is crazy heavy looking.  RSI 84, looks like silver last year.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    the 200ma on the weekly is 258 for f sake

  • Anonymous

    Lunch hour almost over as JJ would say:)

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Has the market closed early? (quiet….)

  • Anonymous

    Tell me about it…I just got back to my computer after eating…market did go up to VWAP after all.

    Now if it would be so kind as to roll over LOL

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com/ MyLifeMyTrade

    It already exists… Its called QQQ.

  • Anonymous

    Likewise, wish a speedy and full recovery.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    OMG, Boring!

  • Anonymous

    A funny one from Slope of Hope –

    3 certain things in life – Death, Taxes and Daily lows on NG

  • Anonymous

    Agreed….ZL is flat the whole session…makes me nervous wondering what’s going on. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Dojeeeeeee.
    ok ok, maybe an inside candle.

  • Anonymous

    Technically an inside day on the SPX looks highly likely. On the other hand it would still be a 16 handle range sandwiched between the lower BB and the 50-day SMA, so nothing we could really work with.

  • Anonymous

    EDIT – NVM. Read wrong.

  • Tronacate

    currencies are never boring……

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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  • Anonymous

    Hells Bells!

  • Maumaj

    This is my second attempt to post this, disgust problems I guess.
    Here’s a link to some info on T-theory.http://tinyurl.com/8xzv2fg