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The Spanish Boonies
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The Spanish Boonies

by The MoleApril 11, 2012

I am somewhere near the Pirineos in an undisclosed location. Absolutely gorgeous country side up here as you can imagine. Today’s evil lair setup is a bit more spacious and no Barcelona style room redecoration had to be performed.

Unfortunately Internet access up here is a bit slow so putting this post out is going to feel like pushing an orange through a straw. Seems like all the hotel guests just checked into their rooms and are busy downloading adult content.

If you are trading options then I hope you heeded my warnings about volatility squeeze yesterday – if not then the 4.5% drop since yesterday won’t make a huge dent yet in your account – yet. But it should serve as a second warning as we are still outside the Bollinger. And in particular in context with our new prime setup on the SPX:

What can I say – I really hope you guys know the drill by now if not please consult our cheat sheet. Please bear in mind that I have no directional bias here (yet). The ZL has been pretty dead and after five consecutive down days on the SPX it makes sense to see a bounce or some selling exhaustion. But I am not convinced that we are completely done yet – which is why the outcome of tomorrow’s session is going to be so very important. If we breach today’s highs we could easily see some acceleration – and of course a mighty volatility squeeze as well. If we break down here – well, then we have two charts that you should keep an eye on:

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More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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First we have our Net-Lines/BB chart, which shows us that we are sitting at support inside the lower 25-day BB. So far so good but if we get an inside day sell tomorrow then 1357 is where things are starting to get serious as there’s nothing below until about 1320. And given market sentiment we could see an acceleration to much lower.

The second chart to be watching is our ES volume profile. As you can see we halted exactly inside our next best volume hole and the next one is at 1330. Bear in mind fair value here which is currently -4.7 – so just add 4.7 to these levels to derive the approximate SPX equivalent. Anyway, the bottom line here is that a breach of our current volume hole would probably lead us to SPX 1335 or lower.

I suggested two trades on bonds yesterday – long if we would breach those two entangled SMAs – short if we stopped below. Well, I hope you took that setup as we dropped quite nicely here. It is permissible to take some partial profits but I am going to keep a few lottery tickets for a continuation lower. Bear in mind that there will probably some flailing around here and we may have to be patient.

Crude also held the line and is starting to look bullish – nothing to do here – your stop should be set below the 100-day SMA and you can forget about this trade until we get to target or we get stopped out.

I think this is where I’ll have to cut it off today – my bandwidth is simply too meager and uploading images is taking forever. It’s also important you guys have enough time to get prepared for tomorrow’s resolution of the inside day setup. I keep poking around for the next hour and if I see another setup I’ll simply tack it on here. Not sure where I’m going to be tomorrow but I’ll be sure to chime in.

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Anonymous

    Well I was gonna enter TBT today if ZB hadn’t sold off but missed that boat…

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks Boss!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Fizzlean.

  • Anonymous

    I’m really not sure that taking this ID setup is that good an idea.

  • Joe_Jones

    AAPL hourly looks dreadful:

  • Galazkiewicz

    Still only have 1R to a declining 20 day SMA.  But, a close below 1370 is two consecutive outside the BB.  Maybe I’m overthinking this one, but seems a bit too much risk either way.

  • Anonymous

    $TICK trending up past 20 minutes, /TF is the first recipient

  • Anonymous

    Got out of my short at 1364.5…I just don’t know. This feels too much like a coin flip today with the camping day and I really don’t think I want to hold an ES contract through the night…

    ZL is just flatlining after the active days we’ve had…

  • Anonymous

    Can someone confirm if ZeroFX is fixed? My settings could be screwed up and I am just looking to correct it.

  • Anonymous

    It’s not just you and its been like this since the morning  – time updates but charts don’t.

  • Anonymous

     Thanks, you saved me the troubleshooting I was going to begin. Mole – what’s up with this?

  • Anonymous

    Could have a lot to do with the fact he’s travelling. He’s also 6 hrs ahead of us so there might be a fix over night.

  • Joe_Jones
  • Galazkiewicz

    No progress today on the VIX buy signal.

  • Fibz

     $1

  • Schwerepunkt

    We have a close outside the BB, don’t we? Step 1?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    still. no step 2.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Silicon valleys.

  • Joe_Jones

    Especially the one on the extreme right.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I think we get that tomorrow. Google on tap, don’t be caught drinking PBR.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yup, her face would break open like an egg if she RFLAO . . . 

  • Joe_Jones

    Lower monthly 100 BB could be an approx target. Close to 1 definitively. Seems unreal though. Probably we’ll have to wait for Summer’s end to BTFD

  • Joe_Jones

    hmmm… I’m not so sure about that. Could swing either way.

  • Kudos

    This is my idea, wait for August before trying to bottom pick. Use seasonality in your favor, might not be the strongest seasonality but I think its the best bet. I’m sure @Volar can expand on this idea.
    Seasonality, with high, low and average percent change. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/30359092/NAT%20GAs%20Seasonality%20percent.gif
    Last 10 years with percent change http://dl.dropbox.com/u/30359092/NAT%20GAs%20Seasonality.gif

    Edit: Nat Gas 1990-99. Green arrow indicated downtrend for weak years, unlike the 2000-2010 period this chart shows the jump happening Mid August to Sept http://dl.dropbox.com/u/30359092/NAT%20GAs%20Seasonality%202.gif

  • Joe_Jones

    Looks good
    😉

  • Kudos

    Added 1 more chart with edit

  • navid badizadeh

    what is the program for the charts on the ipad?

  • Anonymous

    I was going to post today, but there really isn’t much to add. I’m direction neutral at this stage, ready to go long or short on break of the low or high.

    Odds favor a more significant retest, but if we do not see that, then expect a bigger move to the downside

  • Anonymous

    Is that a bloomberg screen Kudos? 

  • Anonymous

    You are correct about one of the possibilities being a bounce to the declining 20 day EMA. Personally I play such things like, exit half position at 1R then move stop to breakeven. 

    If the move up to the 20 EMA is rejected then it will probably paint a shooting star, and I would go short on break of the low.

    That way I stay unbiased if we have a deep retrace or new highs. Keep in mind that at intermediate turning points VERY deep retraces are the norm (shaking weak hand bears out before the real drop)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Google Chrome showing the Zero? 😉

  • Galazkiewicz

    Thanks, Scott.   That’s very helpful.
    BTW- do you have an email addy for Ivan?  I’m thinking about picking up his book to check out the timing tool section.  But, the addresses on his website don’t work and you can’t actually purchase the book or ebook from the site.

  • Galazkiewicz

    Nevermind- figured it out.  Thanks.

  • Kudos

    Yes it is. Should I be blocking out the serial number on the bottom or something?

  • Anonymous

    Hello gents. I’m finally in. Like CS says be ready for either break upside or downside. However, I see today being a bad failure for the S&P. That is why I warn anyone who went long at 1360 that taking  profits for today would be prudent. On my side Im still holding my short in the AUD/USD and dropped the EUR/USD earlier today. I do not like having double exposure.  The EUR/CHF is still in and I decide to hold instead of dropping it like I said I would . All in all I still think this is very obvious market. Unless we have more dope we may see more slumping in risk trades.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/307182f8-a411-4a1c-9d29-851b6bd63e35/2012-04-11_1806.png
    I really hope she waits for me next week. I cannot go short this pair yet because A. I still think gold needs to go down further and B. It nearly goes in lockstep with the VIX, which I still see going higher. SO I wait for my Zara.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

     Well done nailing 1.033 on the AUD/USD.  The employment report in a few hours will hopefully throw it out of this range.

  • Anonymous

    Thank you sir. Nothing fancy, just another version of my 1.0430 short. Like with the AUD/JPY the handles to look for are the .90. With the AUD/USD I look for the .##30s.

  • Anonymous

    Quietly jealous 🙂 Do you work for an insto?

  • Fibz

    Yea… I wasn’t being facetious. $1 is my actual target. Surely will go up some before we hit it though.

  • Anonymous

    Personally I wouldnt bother with the book, in the 80s when it was written pre internet, people were into “secrecy”, so his patterns are there but not explicitly stated with the rules he uses, or the money management which is a crucial part of the deal.

    The best way is to hit him up on skype, he is always pleased to chat about price action and his setups:Skype: inved2

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    is the zerofx still not working mole?

  • Anonymous
  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    is the zerofx still not working?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    AUD/JPY – at least it’s above 83.40

    http://www.uploadup.com/di-EYHD.png 

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    is the zerofx working for any of you guys?

  • Anonymous

    seems stuck here.

  • Kudos

    Work for a small macro consulting shop. Favorite part is the bloomberg is all mine. If you need some data or something you can’t find elsewhere let me know and I can hook it up.

  • Anonymous

    I wish I had a Bloomberg machine. Clemson ended up getting one. Unfortunately it was my senior year and only at certain times you could use it.

  • Anonymous

    Gosh I do miss my old job where the Bloomberg was all mine…and 4 big screens too…

    Now that I’m at home between jobs, its just a laptop and IF i’m lucky, an extra screen.

  • Anonymous

    It sounds like my situation a while ago.  I left the bank I worked at because I knew they were going under, too many bad loans made. I’ve never went back to the smile and service industry.

  • Anonymous

    Given the strength of the trends and the absence of almost any other resistance (except that 100-month BB at 1.315), I’ll be waiting for a daily NLBL breach. These things are designed to indicate a trend change, so I think this would be the best we can hope for.

  • Anonymous

    I’m headed back to another firm in August after a year off at b-school. I’ve decided to take myself off the trading floor and see how I like it…

    I will admit that the past 2 months have been losing months trading my small speculative account but it has gotten better and maybe one day, I’ll be able to make that a primary source of income. But the small account is what I use now to hone not so much my skills, but my psychology.

  • Joe_Jones

    LOL! : http://www.businessinsider.com/t-boone-pickens-natural-gas-prices-bottom-2012-4

  • Anonymous

    Well, one addendum: I would go long on a recommendation by GS to sell. 😉

    EDIT: On the other hand, I agree that the price is close to a bottom… if ‘near’ means ‘less than $2 away’.

  • Anonymous

    I see. Well I’m glad you found this place. You seem like a good addition to the  roster here.

  • Anonymous

    One very important part of becoming successful trader is to find a methodology that fits your personality and works for you.
    If you haven’t done so already, I suggest reading Van Tharp’s ‘Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom’:http://www.amazon.com/Trade-Your-Way-Financial-Freedom/dp/007147871X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1334191261&sr=8-1
    It covers a lot with regard to personal psychology, the biases we have to overcome and how to develop a system that fits you and helps you fulfil your objectives.

  • Anonymous

    Alright men. Whoever has a Aussie trade just be ready for quick brutal stop hunts then real action starts. What I mean of course is that if your stops are near these levels they will be hit.

  • Anonymous

    For those of us who like inside days, here’s one on gold with a $10 range.

    A break to the downside would look better as a trade, but upside could work too, if it goes to 1680 or better yet 1695. I’d probably be out and flip the trade around at 1695/1700.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the tip, looks like there are some buy stops at 1.035.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the kind words, they are much appreciated. It took me nearly 4 years reading this blog before I took the plunge and subscribed and began commenting and haven’t regretted it. 

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the tip – I’ll put an order in for the book ASAP. Psychology is something that I know is a weak point in my trading habits. It’s a big reason why I shut myself down between Oct 2011-Feb 2012.

  • Anonymous

    Yep it will be taken out both sides by bizzare spikes!

  • Anonymous

    EDIT – DELETED

  • Anonymous

    CS says Inside Days with “Flat bollinger band situations where price is around the moving average have NO EDGE AT ALL. This is because price often exhibits a tug of war around fair value, killing the edge.”

  • Joe_Jones

    Move just started IMO

  • Anonymous

    Looks like they got gobbled up in a jiffy…heck AUD/JPY has even nearly hit my target for shorting…

  • Anonymous

    damn..

  • Anonymous

    yeah. News doesnt matter eh?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    nightie night…..bears.

  • Joe_Jones

    were…
    😉

  • Anonymous

    I’ve understood this differently, saying that a breakout in the direction of the MA has no edge. Thinking about this, I see your point that it may have been meant differently. Long at least is probably not a good idea.
    Short, however, looks a lot better since we have a 25-day SMA and a 50-week SMA directly above and a break to the downside would mean that we moved away from the MAs and gained momentum to the downside with some room to run.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I think I see a jet pack.

    http://i44.tinypic.com/10h4rjn.png

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    I like this one

  • Anonymous

     Yes, of course the question is, are there any more buyers now?

  • Anonymous

    AUD/JPY doesn’t really look done yet. At least we finally broke back below this long-term trendline at 84.63 which so far has served as resistance. Would obviously be better if it holds or else the chart would look long-term bullish and could be an early indication of a bear trap.

  • Anonymous

    Might drop inside the BB’s tomorrow. At a Sequential 9 count on the daily. Tends to at least dip a small amount.

  • Anonymous

    Yup…I pulled orders. It still has room to run without breaking the overall trend channel. 

  • Anonymous

     I see a gap on AUDJPY on the 5 minute chart at about 85.  Not sure if that’s bad data.

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    can anyone please post if zerofx is back thanks

  • Anonymous

    For those with Ipad’s an old friend of mine has developed http://www.ichartist.com its very good charting for the ipad.

    Useful!

  • Kudos

    Yea, that book is on my list. Been honing my psychology and skills for years with my small account. This site and community has really helped. Unfortunately many strategies just aren’t in my capabilities and I’ve learned the had way. I do have a much Better system worked out now though. I’m still early in my career, hoping to eventually control my own financial freedom.

  • Galazkiewicz

    Thanks for the heads-up and glad I wasn’t able to buy it on-line.  I’ll keep his skype handy and contact him soon.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Looking into it…

  • Anonymous

    I agree in principle, and I would not take the trade, but this particular instance is reasonably compelling. Not compelling enough to break my own rules, but compelling enough to think you weren’t being silly if you did.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    All taken care of – needed some TLC.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ha! 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nice but they need to add DTN.

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    zerofx seems to be back on track thanks mole

  • Anonymous

    No good no good. That is how it goes though sometimes. I was stopped out at 1.0380. I have another one at 1.0430. EDIT I dont think so. I just looked at the position ratio and order book. I will make that a half lot only at 1.0430. I mean in reality the Aussie is one of the few currencies that has it all. No wonder it is at 1.0400

  • Anonymous

    looking at a weekly chart of EUR/GPP, it looks attractive to me here.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Everything working – everyone happy?

  • Anonymous

    Did you update the Daily Zero for yesterday?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Piss-poor economic data. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Schwerepunkt

    U are an incorrigible iconoclast. 

  • Anonymous

    Quite a reaction!

  • Schwerepunkt

    yep; all is not peachy keen. 

  • Joe_Jones

    Looks like it fits DG’s latest T

  • http://twitter.com/ActiveTrader ActiveTrader

    Mole or anyone else. I have question regarding Net-Lines. What happens if we keep getting up bars, such as 4 5 6 or 7 up bars in a row.  Do you keep redrawing the Net Lines based on the third bar back? I am trying to get someone to code the Net-Lines indicator in NinjaTrader. Please be specific as possible. Thanks.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    missed my long open position by a penny (sigh)

  • Anonymous

    Rocket ship bounce….cricket chirps on the ZL front. Best to watch this unfold before trying anything.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Nice addition to you profile! 🙂

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    this place has a serious influence on me.
    😉

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    ouch…but there’ll be other chances.

  • Anonymous

    So Mr T tells us that we’re still in the downtrend channel for now?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    at the edge.  breakout watch.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I think Mr. T says if this does not turn down right here right now, the upside half of the T takes over and we rise for another week or so.

  • Anonymous

    Well as they always say, it could go up or down. Breakout or rejection watch.

  • Schwerepunkt

    It’s obviously early, but we may be on the cusp of a VIX buy signal today. Google it . . . ;-[]

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    a breakout this AM could be a bull run.
    but bull runs can turn into U turns.
    so fun for all.

  • Anonymous

    I agree…currency side supporting the former. ZL also waking up. Did someone say VIX buy signal step 2?

  • Anonymous

    I might put on a calendar spread on google right before earnings…big MIGHT

  • Joe_Jones

    Let us see where this is going after 10.15 am (EST). Right now, we are still in the shake the weak hands scenario.

  • Anonymous

    Run into resistence, waiting for a div to transpire now.

  • Schwerepunkt

    They disappointed with their last Q-report. Could be a lot of volatility both ways.

  • Anonymous

    working on DIV right now….still working and watching

  • Schwerepunkt

    AUD getting spikey. Hard to believe it traded at $0.47 in 2001. 

  • Anonymous

    Watching it…but with that red bar, we didn’t quite paint the higher high with the lower reading I was hoping for…

  • Joe_Jones

    This POS is going down. Adding more shorts.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    That’s why I wouldn’t put an ATM calendar spread. A double calendar spread is probably in order. ATM Straddles are going for $40 – so that’s roughly the price swing being expected.

  • Anonymous

    Would also be good to see what our Trend Day alert says.

  • Joe_Jones

    I just got mine in my e-mail

  • Joe_Jones

    hmmm, quite a bit of stops above

  • Anonymous

    You sure you still want to be going short after that email though? 

  • Anonymous

    Yea but looking at the ratio I’m pretty anything above 1.0500 are take profit levels..AND you know forex and retail taking profit do not mix.

  • Anonymous

    I’m not entirely sure I understand your question correctly, but a net-line is always drawn at the first of three consecutive bars making either higher highs or lower lows and is valid for the 5 bars following the initial 3. Thus, it will always stay where it was first drawn.

    Chris Carolan came up with the original concept, you can find his description at the bottom of this page.http://spiralcalendar.com/indicators/

  • Joe_Jones

    I have my stops set a bit above the daily acceleration line. Worth the risk IMO.

  • Anonymous

    I would say so too. Unless it claims 1380 and STAYS above, this shit is obvious. One of those no no too obvious situations.

  • Joe_Jones

    yup!

  • Anonymous

    /NG on the bid

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    do I detect a hint of emotion?
    (you can be correct)

  • Joe_Jones

    Damn. Biatches hit my stop.

  • Anonymous

    wtf..spike city….ohh..then I looked at dx..

  • Anonymous

    What the……….

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    AUD/JPY
    84.446

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Fibz

    “Fed begins buying Treasuries under maturity extension program.”

  • Anonymous

    adding the other half to the AUD/USD. 

  • Anonymous

    A moments hesitation leads to this…bah….

    Will wait for a zero mark touch…if we get it that is.

    Dagnamit…….TRADE THE SYSTEM! *beats head with a stick*

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    would that be long or short?

  • Anonymous

    everytime europe markets need a lift..Oil, Metals and sp500 come to rescue…

  • Anonymous

    ShoRt my dear friend. *salutes* See Ya at parity. 

  • Anonymous

    AUD/JPY penetrated the first daily NLBL. A close above would likely lead to a deeper retracement and a few more days of upside.
    Copper too looks strong. I imagine it’s heading for the 200-day SMA or even the broken triangle’s lower diagonal.

  • Anonymous

    Reducing AUDJPY position and opened some puts. looking like an abc correction. Damn, did I say that?

  • Joe_Jones

    Yep, you did. Happens to the best.
    😉

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    just keep an eye on the 30ma daily.
    it’s awfully close.
    😉

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    you’ll be banned.
    probation at best.
    😉

  • Joe_Jones

    Alright, trying my bad luck another time at shorting this POS. Die you a$$f…!

  • Joe_Jones

    Alright, trying my bad luck another time at shorting this POS. Die you a$$f…!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    OK, that’s definitely emotion.
    get a hold of yourself.
    think like ConvictScott!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    OK, that’s definitely emotion.
    get a hold of yourself.
    think like ConvictScott!

  • Anonymous

    Why force it? If it’s an uptrend day, then you’re going against headwinds..

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yeah, throw some stupid hedges on, ease the pain.

  • Anonymous

    If not that, at least put the short bias aside for one day. Trade the Zero mark touches and go back to being a bear tmr. Stubborness isn’t going to get us anywhere…well except for liquidation.

  • Anonymous

    Thank you for the heads up!  I’m not nervous about this rally yet, and IMO glad this rally is happening. More bang for your buck. No pun intended.

  • http://twitter.com/ActiveTrader ActiveTrader

     Thanks, that clarified my question.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I did that once.
    sold at the bottom, reloaded a bit higher up….
    and then got ran over by QE2.
    he he.

  • Anonymous

    no rhyme or reason for this spike…risk on is getting way ahead of itself

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ok, off to cubie land.

    ps.  If the Market gets higher by May, cheap dollars ya know, and Fearless shows up, and says I told ya so.
    I’m gonna puke.
    ;-D

  • Anonymous

    Trapped bears getting nervous and covering, I assume.

  • Anonymous

    Not sure we’d get the zero mark touch today but at the same time, QE2 is a bit of the exception!

    I’m taking tmr off simply cause the Beard is speaking.

  • Anonymous

    that and a lot of fresh cash hit at one time…the spike on bad jobs numbers was crazy across the board…something must be brewing or traders were comfortable with commodity price levels…maybe someone is in the know on google report

  • Joe_Jones
  • Anonymous

    Loading up for next week, if the bulls can hold these levels today will back off and wait.

  • Anonymous

    May options I hope! OPEX is next week (and all its shenanigans)

  • Joe_Jones

    I think bears have only one go at it, and it is either today or tomorrow. 

  • Anonymous

    Yes May, exactly:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    good idea.
    Beard, FOMC, Obama, or other untrustworthy pie-hole.

  • Anonymous

    No bears left, only bulls distributing to the suckers.

  • Fibz

    under the “maturity extension program”, holders of treasuries are selling them to the fed in exchange for something else (equities).

  • Joe_Jones

    true

  • Tronacate

    s EURUSD 1.31740

  • Anonymous

    Tmr might be a wasted day with Bernanke speaking. And we have OPEX next week.

    It would not surprise me that the real action doesn’t start till the 23rd. We could be headed for a week of chop and market shenanigans next week.

  • Joe_Jones

    My logic is simple: if we don’t fall immediately (next day at the latest) after the retest of the daily acceleration line, that means the down momentum is dead and short positions should be off the table.

  • Anonymous

    Dollar looks a lot like it is coiling up. A breakout should either lead to new highs or to reaching last summer’s lows.

  • Anonymous

    resting right on the 50…it looks down to me…with earnings masking the fall…

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/8b9e883b-fc10-43f9-ba85-ce28fcb9f515/2012-04-12_1212.png
    IMO it is the late bulls that really need to be nervous. Not the smart bears entering. 

  • Fibz

    I would be worried if I were a financial sector bull, commodities not so much. eg. Jim Chanos on CNBC saying “Chinese banks great shorts” really means “banks great shorts”. IMO WFC and JPM in particular.

  • Anonymous

    google could blow out numbers and throw this over 1400 tonight…and it seems earning season lately is the launch too move higher…

  • Joe_Jones

    or the opposite can happen

  • Anonymous

    5 min div better defined now:)

  • Anonymous

    Yup…but it’s acted like a trend day…I’d rather not go short today.

  • Anonymous

    That why I like shorting the AUD/USD. To me it is a tail i win heads you lose situation.  I have this idea of us seeing higher equity levels while AUD/ going under parity again. No need for FED easing.  If  economy tanks commodities tank still a loser for Aussie. With the later of the two seeing swift brutal shorting of Aussie. Meaning the damage will already be done before the fed can go to FedEx Kinkos.

  • Fibz

     I think a big drop will come around the time the banks start selling their facebook stock to the public…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    too hot.
    the 9th & 10th chopped a lot, I can imagine same today/Fri 13th.

    http://www.uploadup.com/di-C4VF.png 
    -DG

  • Anonymous

    It’s a guessing game obviously and I wouldn’t trade on this, but I think that Google could disappoint. There are several reasons for this if you follow the tech sector.
    First of all, Google is already dominating the search sector and generating massive profits by selling ads. Problem is that this means there is almost no room for growth except in the mobile ad markets. Google knows this and that is why they bought AdMob in 2010 and that is why they are pushing Android, because they need more markets to sell ads in.The Android business itself has the problem of bringing in almost no money for Google directly. They only make single digit amounts per device per year (compared to Apple making several hundreds). Instead they get showered with patent lawsuits by Oracle and Apple (Microsoft is already making quite some money via a licensing agreement for their patents used in Android). Google’s acquisition of Motorola was an act of desperation, because they need patents to defend themselves, but it’s still not nearly enough to compete against their much better equipped competitors.The second big sector Google is trying to make money in is social media, because that is they only sector with the kind of growth prospects they need to satisfy their shareholders. Unfortunately for them, “Plus” seems to be a failure. Almost nobody uses it and their user engagement numbers are abysmal compared to Facebook. In the last months (year really, after Larry Page took over as CEO) they focussed everything on social media (even tying employee bonuses to the success of their social strategy). They even compromised search – their core product and primary cash cow – by injecting pages from “Plus” into the results while removing Facebook and Twitter results which tended to be much more relevant for the user. In the long run this may do massive damage their reputation as being the best search engine and make users look for alternatives.Bottom line is, Google has reached the limits for growth in their core business. They know that and are desperate for more growth in new fields of business. They found social media but are late to the party. Now they’ve basically put everything on this one card and at the moment it doesn’t look like they can win. Right now Google has a massive problem and it will only get bigger if they don’t come up with a better strategy.

  • Tronacate

    About as pretty a divergence as you could ask for…….

  • Fibz

    Here’s what my rudimentary sentiment calc says about April and May GOOG options:

  • Kudos

    Sure, but keep your eye on that hourly

  • Anonymous

    ThinkScripter has Net Lines coded for ThinkorSwim.  $75 for all his indicators. I run them on a ToS paper trading screen.

  • Schwerepunkt

    ES getting close to my target of 1382.5. Think it will pause there. If not, next overhead is 1394.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Schwerepunkt/folders/Jing/media/aaba12a5-1f05-48d7-9e77-c879db11b41c/2012-04-12_1252.png

  • Anonymous

    Exactly.  Divergence probably won’t play out today.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Thanks for the cogent briefing. 

  • Anonymous

    sat on my hands and watched miners get to great buy level…if history repeats we are moving higher..
    30 yr auction is over…DX can now take a dive…

  • Anonymous

    Mr. Margin, thanks for nice write up. 

    I work in a vertical where google is making cash hand over fist, many clients are still feeding their search cash machine…the social buzz is interesting because so far my clients have adopted to facebook, twitter much faster than other verticals, the issue is conversion of those ads to sales, Facebook is really a bottom dweller there. It’s data will derive a lot of revenue, but not sold on social media marketing just yet…

  • Anonymous

    80% trend day alerts.  The gift that keeps on giving.  If your not a sub, it’s never too late.

  • Kudos

    I work for a macro consulting firm. Don’t have the stat on hand but facebooks clickthrough rate, the rate that people click on ads being displayed is ridiculously low. Also, I’ve read countless articles talking about the sentiment of people on facebook and how they don’t go on the site to buy stuff. 

  • Anonymous

    i must visit an optician and buy some glasses.  QQQs are up and AAPL is down on the day……….. i cant be seeing straight

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    looks like a bottom for the day on 30yr tres…

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=m5

  • Anonymous

    I believe that is why Mole says to disregard short term neg. divergences (i.e 5 mins) on strong uptrend days.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Tronacate

    shit…..missed the alert in my email……

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (DG picks up a crumb)

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    yes bounce in progress but don’t get too excited yet..

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    I “feel” like 80% is the sweet spot.  Unfortunately I deleted the alerts so I can’t do any stats.  I remember a couple of ridiculous +90% days that failed.  Don’t forget what Mole said about using the zero w/ the alerts to keep you in the game.  I have been loosely adjusting my stops.

  • Anonymous

    Good call so far.  Let’s see where we end.

  • Anonymous

     Set it to SMS your phone. Can’t miss that way.

  • Anonymous

     why thank you sir.  there is hope for my eyes!

  • Anonymous

    Volume is also key to watch.  I remember on those 90% days that the volume was low from the start, particularly on the spike high TICK readings. 1st 45 min. ES volume nowhere near the likes of today.

  • Anonymous

    One cause for concern for the ES atm is the volume has dried up significantly relative to this morning

  • Schwerepunkt

    shooting star?

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    puke or pullback now ?

  • Tronacate

    People are going to get bored with social media……..I see it in young people……..just observation

  • Anonymous

    automotive vertical is using it as branding…lead to sales conversion is abysmal…

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    your upward red candles freak me out.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    yah and look at the trix as it getting to resistance..  nice

  • Tronacate

    LOL

  • Anonymous

    Noticed that as well. Alrighty, let’s see how this div plays out. If VWAP is saved will cut my shorts.

  • Tronacate

    At least my EURUSD is coming back to normalcy…..jeez

  • Anonymous

    You’re right, Google is making a lot of money, they do have a giant cash cow they can milk constantly. They’re making about 95% of their total income from ads. However, there is a downside to their current situation in the ad market and that downside is the lack of growth prospects. Shareholders and analysts don’t care about how much money you made in the past or are making in the present, but how much _more_ you will be making in the future. If you show constant growth, people expect you to grow even more in the future and Google cannot do that in a market it basically dominates, so they have to look for new markets where they can grow, hence their social media strategy. But this strategy means venturing into a field outside of Google’s real expertise. For some reason is unable to do “social”. They tried it first years ago with Orkut that failed in almost all countries and now they’re trying it again.
    I read a comparison some time ago about Google’s current situation regarding social media and Microsoft in the 90’s once they realised that they had missed the rise of the Internet. Bill Gates create a completely new strategy, turned the whole company around 180 degrees and MSFT put all its resources behind the Internet Explorer and crushed Netscape, because they knew they needed to succeed at this or they would lose their dominant position.
    I’m not sure if social media is really that important from a strategic point of view for Google. There’s a lot of hype and buzz in that field right now and people tend to overestimate its impact IMO, but this may be another motivation for Google in pushing “Plus”.

    Facebook is a whole nother story. I’ve heard about their meagre clickthrough rates on their ads and so far they have been unable to monetise the growing number of mobile users at all. But they make money and their earnings weren’t bad at all. Furthermore, they don’t solely rely on ads, but sales of Facebook Credits (i.e. Zynga games and the like). 16% of their income in 2011 came from Zynga. All in all, they made more money in 2011 than AMZN.
    I used to work for a company providing access to carrier billing services (billing by mobile phone) in certain countries for one of FB’s payment partners. I’m not sure we saw their complete traffic, but what we saw revealed that there wasn’t really that much growth in overall volume and a majority of volume came from returning customers. Obviously, there are limits to our ability to generalise these findings, since different payment types may show a different picture, but I still finds this interesting. There appears to be a certain degree of customer loyalty.

  • Anonymous

    What are you trying to do? Follow the inside day setup. Plus trend day signal. Why are you shorting so early in the bounce?

  • http://twitter.com/angrybear168 jimmy

    anyone shorting aud/jpy at this point?

  • Anonymous

    I just thought his charts were upside down:)

  • Anonymous

    haha no japanese style just to confuse us noobs!

  • Anonymous

    Good point.  Thanks for the reminder.

  • Fibz

    Agree. Older people seem more enthusiastic the “social media” buzzword than young people.

  • Anonymous

    Not today. Will wait for Chinese news before shorting. If its good I dont want to be trampled.

  • Tronacate

    I just see everybody around me dropping facebook like a cheap whore……..it’s nice for attention whores…..but even that gets old.

  • Tronacate

    I’m s audusd

  • Anonymous

    Yup like newb said Japanese style. Not hard. Um lets see just think of red with excitement, blood rushing, and vigor. Think of blue with depression, fainting, and lifeless.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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