Wait Your Turn

Do not despair for the Mole is on the case. While many of you equity addicts are impatiently waiting for your turn to commit ritual seppuku I for one have been monitoring crude with increasing interest. Yes – just like equities crude hasn’t gone anywhere fast in the last few weeks but that is pretty much where the resemblance ends.

Because whereas equities are clearly losing steam and the Dow has been unable to conquer the coveted 20,000 mark it is crude which seems at the cusp of tearing the bears a new orifice. Bold fighting words for sure but as usual I am able to back my lofty claims with juicy charts and entertaining brain farts. That’s a lot more than you get in the financial news these days. And I’m not even kidding, could the quality of news reporting possibly sink any lower at this point? It seems that formerly esteemed pillars of the media have finally abandoned all journalistic integrity and turned themselves into glorified clickbait farms.

But I digress – let’s talk crude. On the weekly panel above (on the left) we are enjoying an ever more compressed 25-week Bollinger and even the 100-week is now joining the action. Most noteworthy are the 100-week SMA which still looms near 56.5 as well as the Net-Line Buy Level at 55.14. On the monthly we have the 25-month SMA near 57 and a NLBL at 57.96. So obviously we’re looking at a very significant bullish inflection point here roughly spanning between 55 and 57. One which when breached should probably put us on an express elevator to 70 and above.

And guess what – the mighty P&F agrees as its bullish price objective currently points at 72 – voilà. Please Donald, tweet something insulting about Saudi Arabia – we’ve got your back!

Get In Line

Of course the big breach may come tomorrow or sometime next month. Fortunately we just rolled into the March contract and that affords us a little less than 30 days until we have to roll our positions forward. I suggest to start accumulating here and to slowly build your position on the way up. It’ll be impossible to time this right – so don’t waste your time waiting for that perfect entry as we’re in the midst of a chop fest. In any case our stop will have to be below the 50 mark for obvious reasons.

Somewhat related I talked about the Dollar yesterday and wasn’t kidding about it having to hold the 100 mark. The bearish price objective here is 96.5 and that’s only preliminary. So far I’m not seeing much evidence for a bounce and a slide lower cannot be ruled out.

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