We Are Tired But The Iron Is Hot

I am working on some quant related project today and actually wasn’t planning on posting. But the market waits for no man (or woman) and there are setups that simply cannot be ignored. Clearly confusion reigns sky high right now as equity trader have been chased around the block several times and then some over the course of the past weeks.

So I can appreciate the level of exhaustion that must have spread across the general trading community as as a result. Which makes today’s entry exceedingly difficult to recognize or at least to be taken seriously. However if we cancel out emotions for a moment then we must acknowledge that, technically speaking, this is a great entry opportunity. More and more support is accumulating here and although constant retests do not convey any meaningful bullish sentiment it is becoming clear that we are establishing additional technical context.

Long Opportunity

Given that and the current formation on the short term panel I cannot help but enter long here with an ISL below ES 2130, which is a few ticks below the diagonal shown on the hourly panel. A contributing factor here is the daily NLSL at ES 2129, thus it may be worthwhile to place our ISL below that.

Short Opportunity

Should the daily NLS be broken we would most likely quickly descend to the 100-day SMA. So a short entry right on the spot would be difficult, or at least expensive even if prepared in advance. However a late session bounce higher toward 2140, after a touch of the 100-day SMA at 2117, would most likely represent a small but actionable short opportunity. Suffice to say that the odds would be low but the potential pay off considerable. So I’d call that a text book Hail Mary short entry.

Whatever you do – don’t get caught up in the swings. Keep your position sizing small and your stops where you originally placed them. Stick with your plan. This tape is engineered to wear you out and draw you into making mistakes. Think like a pro – act like a pro.

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