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Wrapping Up The Week
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Wrapping Up The Week

by The MoleMay 9, 2013

Let’s just assume you are a sub – you showed up for my early morning briefing – paid attention – abandoned all personal biases and opinions – and hence jumped into at least two of my FX setups (the post is freely available now). Well, IF so then you should be smiling all the way to the bank today. If NOT, well there’s always another day.

Okay, let’s revisit some of the highlights of the day:

Great early morning entry on EUR/JPY – it tried to fake us out but that NLBL breach was a great signal for a push higher. Take profits now!

GBP/JPY – I did point out the rather obvious Bollinger compression. What were my very words? Most likely a big move is coming. Well you got it and then some. Again NLBL breach which put you in a long position. Well done and take profits now.

GBP/CAD – I did expect a little reversal at the 100-hour but this is ridiculous. Seriously I’m not that good – we got lucky here today. But if you took the technical entry you ought to be donning a pretty silly smile right now. Oh yeah – take profits.

CAD/JPY – again we were looking at a pretty extended Bollinger compression here. And that NLBL was a great entry for a ride higher. If you missed that one there was another one near the upper 25-BB line. I hope you didn’t snooze either of the two. Smiles all around and we’re taking profits.

CAD/CHF – similar situation – BB compression was not as pronounced but present. Again NLBL entry plus the 100-hour was never breached. I hope you caught this sucker – if you did then I’m sure it’s smiles all around and you should take profits.

See, we do this here every day at Evil Speculator. You can either join us or you can trade against us 😉

I’ve worked my butt off in the past few months and need a breather. So I’ll be following Scott’s example and head out of town for a few days. This is the lovely beach you may find me at tomorrow, and believe me, I won’t even be glancing at a chart until Sunday afternoon. Most likely next post will be Monday morning. Hope to see you all then, bright eyed and bushy tailed.

 

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Have a nice weekend!

    @Molecool – I replied to you in last post:

    Took oil
    Was looking for a nice entry to short.
    Working from my days-to-weeks sell signal to go short, and then your hourly set-up came
    in. Used it for half-position size entry. Stop above recent high

    Thanks

  • Ronebadger

    I hope the water there really isn’t THAT color turquoise?!? Meh…

  • Skynard

    Gerb, you buying the dip:)

  • amokta

    Whenever Mole goes on holiday, the markets crash 🙂
    Enjoy Costa del Mole!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Bushy tailed, LOL.

    come back from a meeting and the hay ride has been set on FIRE!

    1622 as I speak.

  • amokta
  • Schwerepunkt

    OK, here come the dip buyers.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it’s Sky taking profits….right?…..RIGHT?!

  • amokta

    Indeed, but dollar index up?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    nope. I’m not good enough for intraday overnight shenanigans.
    but I am riding the Yen short. yeeehaawww.

  • amokta

    We need to ban these pesky dip buyers 🙂
    Anyone planning to stay short o/n?

  • Skynard

    Reloaded at VWAP:)

  • mrmik3

    Mole you are too kind!!.. took 2 of the FX setups that i would not have taken so thank you!! ypu post so many setups sometimes its hard for my little brain to keep up!! someday

  • Skynard

    This could get fugly seeing that Mole and Scott are both leaving town:)

  • amokta

    Especially if we take out earlier low, then prior dip buyers toast, of course cavalry could arrive

  • Skynard

    She’s going to fuck those last buyers real good! It’s called PANIC, and it’s a bull worst nightmare:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    No, a veterinarian with surgical shears is . . .

  • amokta

    Call me jerk chicken, but i am out of shorts – there’s always tomorrow to play
    This is only one trade out of next 3000000 🙂
    Will let small oil sort run

  • Kerberos

    Stalking IBM puts. That stock is going to get slaughtered.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Jerk Chicken. LOL. Whatever you do, don’t have a bowl of Grace’s Cock Flavoured Soup mix. I kid you not, it exists.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Jerk Chicken. LOL. Whatever you do, don’t have a bowl of Grace’s Cock Flavoured Soup mix. I kid you not, it exists.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Lol, snap no doubt:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Take a few more days Off Mole! You can charge me extra…..Markets need a cleansing.

  • amokta

    Ok, i made 1.3% return on capital for a 0.8% stop-risk, for 6pts on spx using etf spxu. Am i over leveraged? (lol!).
    In all seriousness could i get a better return for the same risk on capital (is there such a thing as a free lunch). Using highly leveraged intrumentations, i assume the benefit (of leverage) would be if you are able to cut losers early and let winners ride. Which means having a robust system with the proper expectancy. I assumed that this equated with just having more % winners, but not necessarily so, if winners were all multi-Rs, while losing trades were capped at 1R. I assume its would be possible to have a system which had more losing trades, yet positive expectancy, but be brave trader to use this?
    Ok, i too i need a rest from markets 🙂

  • newbfxtrader

    @sky hope you held on to those Aussie shorts. Seems like my call for parity is gonna play out soon!

  • amokta

    No way 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Today’s E-Mini session via the Zero indicator:

  • newbfxtrader

    Nice. Now get on that train or whatever and leave!

  • Skynard

    Yep, reversed my position last night. That was FN crazy!

  • AcoBrasil

    Inside day on the $RUT.

    $SPX daily might just be close enough to count.

  • Kerberos

    Anyone notice how Zeroedge is re-tweeting “emergency” posts unrelated to finance for the past few months? They’ve gone full Alex Jones retard.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    They have turned full blown beartard and any bad news is like p0rn to that crowd, they can’t get enough.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    At least try to be subtle… I may not return 😉

  • newbfxtrader

    hehe bear market will start then!

  • newbfxtrader

    0.98ish is what I am looking for on aud/usd. Also liking the moves in gbp/usd and nzd/usd today. Overall looks like things are going according to plan.

  • Kerberos

    Noticing a lot of stocks out there which seems to be wanting to dip a tick below their 2009 lows, so as to create a positive divergence (ie. gold miners).

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    sounds ‘Fowl’. 😎

  • Skynard

    /6A Weekly

  • newbfxtrader

    Wheres that like button?!

  • Skynard

    Free fall very likely from here:)

  • AmazingLarry

    SNAP! Will Mole be boarding a plane?! Please, please good sir, take off…take all the time you need! Hehe. Dude, that beach looks killer. Thanks for your hard work as always.

  • Skynard

    Some volatility would be nice, Get back to the 20 mark:)

  • Skynard

    Got back on the /DX using the one minute chart. This is the 62 level and exactly where I went long again. Some argue that it is not useful but many times they are resourceful. We shall see:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry, I’m driving – hehe…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Or you could just trade the tape that is…

  • amokta

    Japan stock market up 2.9% – Kamikazenomics seems to be working?
    I assume this is due to revaluation based on yen falling?
    Actually, i think the forex market may have more trading potential than equities (in hindsight, one could have been safely short the yen from sept 2012)

  • Skynard

    Texting and driving, tisk tisk:)

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, dollar rampage:)

  • amokta

    Godzilla in da house? 🙂

  • AmazingLarry

    Freekin knew it. PM’s roll over. Glad I was short gold.

  • AmazingLarry

    Silver still hanging onto a quad inside week. Amazing. Doesn’t look for very long, though.

    Hey JJ – are you positioned here before HL reports this AM?

  • Skynard

    Nice!

  • Skynard

    /CC been getting hammered:)

  • Skynard

    If we see the dollar breakout here looking for a test of the high.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Did Evans fart or something?

  • amokta

    Natural flatus still holding up though 🙂

    Also, to short or not to short the spx, that is the next question.

  • amokta

    Lots of things are de-flat-ing, de-e-e-e-flaating.

  • Joe_Jones

    still holding it.

  • Skynard

    /NG just re-tested the high and is falling fast:)

  • amokta

    Everything is re-flat-ing, re-e-e-e-flating.

    Anyway, still holding oil short, depending on trend, might hold multi-day

  • Skynard

    Well, do you have a plan?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    deadmau5, or should I say deadgold?

    -DG

  • ridingwaves

    Via YCS also

  • Skynard

    Bucky, what a ride!

  • ridingwaves

    Charts are not needed to short gold, if you short the day before every fed meeting or Bernanke speech over last year you get handed a silver platter….the MM’s attack it via etf sales on or just before the speech…have to show who is in control…

  • Skynard

    Time to sell the rips my fellow RATS! Price action is subjective to that, should see a much larger move today than yesterday:)

  • badflightrisk

    Mole thought this move in gold would set the tone for the rest of the year?
    The P&F targets between the dollar and SPX do not coincide
    You would think one has to loose

  • amokta

    Plan? – what you talkin bout Willis 🙂
    Yes, plan is to go short with stop at yesterday high spx
    But even the best laid plans of mice and traders go astray!

  • Skynard

    Anticipate being stopped out on bucky @ 63

  • bdoone

    Looks like 25hr sma (1626.75) & 100hr sma (1622) ping-pong.

  • amokta

    SPX is holding up, like a beacon of transparency in a world full of obfuscation.
    Nonetheless, short it we must, come high hell, or low water.
    With stop loss, of course.

  • Skynard

    You will be a happy trader without any feelings of just:)

  • amokta

    These lowly powered not-so leveraged etfs are slow-burners, but i think if you are holding longer term, they allow you to liimit intial losses, until the direction has become established on a longer term, and then by letting them run, gain the compounding/multiplying advantage. BUt not sure how many use etfs for long/medium term (i suppose people hold gld and slv)

  • Skynard

    Bucky at support, last chance:)

  • Skynard

    What are the p&f for both?

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    The past two days its lost 8 supports on daily, multi day, weekly and monthly charts. Next support at 2260 on weekly
    But lots of stops hit at obvious 2300, chance for a bounce around there based on short term and tick charts

  • badflightrisk

    SPX at 1800
    USD at 103

  • Skynard

    subjectively it makes perfect sense since they are long term. If this market corrects with intensity the dollar will rally while the SPX tanks. Then after the correction it will be the time to buy equities for that SPX target.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Short term triple hourly inside bars failed to continue down
    Bounce up to 25 ma and buy line, see what it can do once that expires in an hour and a half

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    I think we need a bear mkt soon. There is simply too much happiness out there these days 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Just checking in – how’s everyone doing? GREAT Mole signals today!

  • BobbyLow

    Afternoon Folks,

    I’ve taken a little hit on my remaining 1/2 Long Oil position. The 100 DMA has held so far. If we get a close below, I’ll probably close it out at about even. (I know a lot of you are short and that’s cool) In any event, I’m glad that part of my rule set is to take Profit on the First Half of a Position at predesignated prices. Doing this makes mechanical decision making a lot easier especially on the second half.

    After Mole said he was taking a couple of days off (LOL) and after looking at my charts, I also made a decision to put on a Short in Gold and the Euro yesterday afternoon. So far so good on those two. I’m also still short Bonds as well.

    Equities appear to have taken their daily dose of Anti-Kryptonite and I’m glad I’m not fighting them at this point in time. 🙂

  • Skynard

    Great, they were spot on:)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Yep signals are good.
    lots of cross currents from currencies and opex weeklies it seems
    See what can happen after 3:00

  • Skynard

    USD Budget up soon, getty up!

  • Skynard

    Nice trading!

  • Skynard

    Cut my full short /QG 915 and now long 1/2 pos. It has been reamed real good:)

  • BobbyLow

    Current P&F on 20+ Year Treasury Bond

    http://screencast.com/t/tKNwKJMoXg

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks

  • badflightrisk

    amazing the Q’s are on over drive without Apple

  • BobbyLow

    It’s Friday afternoon so I thought I would show a Clip of “Tommy Desimone” (From “Goodfellas” going into a room after Shorting the S&P. 🙂

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dk-a1RAX2mU

  • Skynard

    Missed some good profit on /DX long & AUD short, patient bear:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah. Still a lot of disbelief in the rally. Means we go higher after the pullback. 1800+ sounds very reasonable.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    every time Mole starts talking currencies….
    (I don’t know a word of German, so I just enjoy it as art.)
    Perhaps Lunchtime at the ECB would be a fitting title.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji9prBdXV_0

    watch for the minus sign on the chalkboard.
    -DG

  • BobbyLow

    Taking all Profit on Short Bonds MOC.

    Have ridden TBT + $4

    Position is too small to take to partial profits so if I leave some on the table so be it. Don’t want to be a Pig anyway. 🙂

    If this market ever does correct, Bonds could Rally and who knows what evil lurks out there. . .?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Teutonic tight-wads’ nightmare.

  • Kerberos

    TBT is good for at least another 50% drop IMO.

  • BobbyLow

    Definately could be what a real ECB Meeting looks like. LOL

  • BobbyLow

    I think you mean TLT can drop a lot more but nevertheless, I didn’t want to overstay my welcome for now. There will probably many more busses leaving for the downside. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    I think you mean TLT can drop a lot more but nevertheless, I didn’t want to overstay my welcome for now. There will probably many more busses leaving for the downside. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    It’s been a decent week.

    I have no idea of what kind of price action Monday will bring. NONE!

    However, I was impressed with the Long Lower Wick on the /CL Daily. It went down touched the 100 and then shot back up and said “Only Foolin”. I have know idea what explanation was given for the price drop or for the rebound nor do I care. But I do know that I’m glad I usually wait until close to the end of the day to decide whether or not to enter a swing position or exit a swing position. There is waaaaaay too much fuckery going on during the day with shake outs and stop runs in either direction that offer “Oh Shit” moments. But as they say, “different strokes” and all that rot.

    Have a great weekend everybody. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Oh, I almost forgot to say that the 30 Year is sitting right on the 100 DMA which offers support. If it closes solidly below next week, I’ll probably re-enter short.

  • Skynard

    Anyone watching the AH action AUD? WTF

  • Kerberos

    No, TBT. Rates won’t rise until Benny acts surprised when oil rises. I’ll buy TBT when “the world is ending” because of high gas prices.

  • BobbyLow

    Bull Shit

    What Prices are you looking at? Since 5/2 the Long Bond /ZB has dropped from 149’10 to 145’2, TLT has dropped from 124 to 118.75 and TBT has RISEN from 58.58 to 63.55.

    I’m not talking about forever. I’m just talking about a fucking trade I closed out.

    Just some words of unsolicited advice and that is to Trade the Market you have not the one you want!

  • Kerberos

    I agree TBT might have some upside short term, but I’m not a short term trader. Patience is something I have an excess of. I am the grand master when it comes to waiting.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ok, no fat men or other spammers posting.

    Have a great weekend rats.

    It’s a hayride alright.
    http://s21.postimg.org/gc23m70br/cheers.png

  • Skynard

    Ding, Ding, Ding!

  • newbfxtrader

    Do they ring bells at the top?!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    not sure, but you may want to check the PnF for the QQQ’s.
    😉

  • Skynard
  • convictscott

    Yeah, you sure are a grand master

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Back in town – a bit exhausted. Next post tomorrow before (most of) you guys have breakfast 😉

  • Skynard

    Nice gap open EUR, AUD

  • Skynard

    Ya, used to tell myself that. Patience is one thing, coin is another:)

  • Skynard

    /NG should see a reaction at the hourly lower BB. Currently long 1/2 pos. fr 915

  • Skynard

    Added and full long the /DX @33. Trains leaving:)

  • http://twitter.com/D2point0 Daron

    that’s what i’m thinking Sky. I did pretty good last week on the NG, see what we can do with it again this week.

  • http://twitter.com/D2point0 Daron

    I’m sure we’re going to tag 3000 on the NQ before all this is said and done.

  • amokta

    All aboard the Hindenberg express in that case 🙂
    /es showing some early weakness.

  • http://twitter.com/D2point0 Daron

    This is why I think that…………..

  • Skynard

    Interesting, the /DX has had 2 gap ups. Think it rockets higher:) Taking 1/2 profit this time on the test of high. Notice where it bounced again? The 78 level this time, use these for stops it a trend. If it is time for this market to correct it’s going much higher IMO>

  • Ivan

    after the mega movement late last week, Bad Cop must be around the corner … caution Will Robinson!

  • Skynard

    Lol, bad cops are the worst kind:) Using good stops and watching closely for now!

  • Skynard

    Good inflection point. Really like that 25 lower BB tag. Lines up well with the 25 daily, so playing long for a 50 retrace:) 14-16 area.

  • Skynard

    It’s a coin banking machine when your on the right side that is:) Very possible we see a small shakeout here for a test of the low. If that happens, will add to my position.

  • Skynard

    AUD target .98 100 weekly lower BB.

  • Kerberos

    Still waiting on OEX 740 and NQ 3,000. Yawn!

  • Skynard

    Went full long /QG, stop just below the low.

  • Skynard

    Nice little div on the 5 min, that the money trade:)

  • Skynard

    Gap fill on the div, here we go:) Right at EUR open!

  • amokta

    lets see! Oil down so far

  • Skynard

    Weekly chart, last kiss on the hourly, target 80.

  • https://twitter.com/#!/fresbee2010 fresbee

    The orderbook on USDJY suggests a dip to 100.9 before a go at 102.
    Other orderbook info.
    http://www.forex3x.com

  • Skynard

    /NG 3.9 hourly NLBL

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://www.friv3.co/ friv 3

    I like the photo, a great beach