Now Reading
Yowzers!
285

Yowzers!

by The MoleFebruary 18, 2009

UPDATE 11:41am EST: Zazu pointed me towards the CPC which I didn’t bother to look at last night:

Talking about going from one extreme to the other. This does open the door for a potential snapback rally – remember, the majority is usually wrong. Not saying it must happen, but just make sure you are not too exposed on the short side.

UPDATE 12:32pm EST: Let’s talk trading psychology for a moment:

We just had a nice drop and touched a key resistance line around 780. It’s expiration week with only 17 trading hours to go. The bears have smelled blood and are reloading at the peaks, expecting a continuation of the drop. The bulls are beaten down but are positioned to make a stand around 780 or if necessary around 750ish.

The Zero is painting a thin signal indicating indecision – stop signals are being triggered due to whipsaw candles and signal reversion. Now, if I was a market maker I know what I would do. I would run the tape up and then I’d run it down again – not unsimilar to what we just saw. I’m seeing a lot of wild jaggeed moves to the downside and I’m sure it won’t stop until we touched the lows again. Laggard bears are probably chasing it down and hopeful bulls are taking profits or trying to minimize losses. Lather, rinse, repeat.

I don’t want to sound like your pappy here and all I’m saying is that you might want to be cautious. It’s understandable that you guys want a release move to the downside after having waited now – what – 3 months? But everyone is scared right now and the bears are getting overconfident. If I would see a -4 Zero signals it would be a different story but the indecision flags are telling me to take a step back and wait this out. Yeah, maybe I miss out on the best reload we’ll get – but maybe I’ll also be spared from a wild chop session.

Exhibit B.

UPDATE 3:00pm EST: Boy, those were some nasty candles – LOL – somebody just stepped in and it’s not even 3:30pm yet. Not much else to say – as expected we’ve been chopping around all day, however we did drop further than I thought. Let’s see if we get some EOD fireworks. Zero is flatlining with a bias towards the upside. Don’t get whipsawed around, boys and girls.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • alphahorn

    all in due time, now let's get one more nice leg down first

  • alphahorn

    added to my mar spy 74 puts

  • Vardoger

    Triangle not looking very bueno… A talented technician I watch thinks we are in an irregular flat and is looking for 801 before we roll over FWIW. I am looking for the same and sticking to my thesis that we see the nov lows tomorrow in lieu of the data tomorrow and rip it up on Friday. (I am usually wrong tho…)

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    Who's the sexy latina?

  • standard_and_poor

    Who Vardoger?

  • Insect Overlord

    I don't know about you, but it just seems like no matter what, I'm on the wrong side of things. I'm short QLD…much less risky than /NQ. Good candlestick confirmation with pivots on the 5minute scale, but that's it. I'm irritated with myself on this one, but I'm going to follow through with my plan when I placed the trade.

    http://screencast.com/t/pdsdnWADGLo

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    It's interesting to compare how the CPC performed during the last leg down. In a non trending environment it appears to be a great tell but with yesterday's breakdown we could indeed be embarking on a new trending environment where the extremes on put/call don't tell us as much.

    It's good to remain a bit paranoid nonetheless.

  • GDII

    Obama to talk at 12:15. I think the market is posed for a break-out either way.

  • jigdaddy

    maret seems to be lagging XLF's latest surge.

  • hindawg

    A triangle in a 2 is rare. Still ABC targets 802-808

  • alphahorn
  • mike_malone

    ES night high was around 796, RL are also around there. Looks its headed to that level.

  • Erikd

    T.B. Aurelius asked me to post these two charts for the evil rats http:VIX chart…To my eyes…..they both look like coiling…..for ……..//screencast.com/t/mXqiJye4
    httpTLT chart for evil readers://screencast.com/t/JPDv1dPK5

  • T. Waffle

    Is Tim is going to speak at 12:15?

  • standard_and_poor

    799 is a good level to short some basis spx

  • perspective

    for those that missed out on buying the financials during the 11 pm trading range – you will most likely get another shot post 3 pm today.

    or they are stacking the deck to blast this market out of its precarious technical circumstance. i'm telling you there is far too much at stake in the short term for the powers that be to let the market fall on its own sword.

    it will inevitably – but they will play their cards to buy more time.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    New long tranche here MYGN, 86.14

  • BalaB

    Uh…….
    Perhaps they should have thought this through a little better

    http://www.nypost.com/delonas/delonas.htm

  • slartybardfast

    I've hedged my puts just to be on the safe side, waiting to see some decisive direction either way.

    I have noticed on the 5min/30min/60min/2hr charts on SPY all show Stochs and MACD turning up, so we could easily have a runup today. If so I can add more puts at a higher level.

  • vad

    I think we are going to test 80.60 on SPY and if unable to break out higher – good time to load more puts i guess. Id we do break out there, we may attempt to close the gap.

  • slartybardfast

    Obama will.

  • tfyisrich

    i think we will have a violent move up that will shake out all bears by end of thursday, so good re-entry point will be on near the close of Thursday.

  • lJET

    I should have been stopped out on my GS position yesterday, but I gambled – am i safe now? My price getting in was almost 10 points higher than now.

  • Vardoger

    What is exactly at stake? Will our borders be overrun or a revolution begin? Joking, but really- why do you think spx 650 is SO terrible? Not that I don't agree they can prop the market up but I am interested to know what is behind your perspective

  • DrMalaka

    This housing bill is another TARP, what a joke. The government is going to overpay banks for shitty mortgages. It is just stealth TARP. Obama, like the rest of these dirt bag politicians, has been completely bribed by all the banksters. This is absolutely sickening.

  • jigdaddy

    did i just miss the opportunity to add to my puts on the latest surge? i'm trying to hold out for 800-805

  • BalaB

    Good to see you Dr. M

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    OOOH! and we’ve got Helicopter Ben 30 minutes later

    A one-two punch

    Perfect!

  • TomOfTheNorth

    almost time for TPIOTV fade

  • perspective

    spx 600 or spx 650 in short order would make most of the pension funds in this country insolvent. it would do the same to the insurance/annuity companies. they have been on the edge since november – this would push them over and introduce another bolus of systemic risk into the system.

    they may all be insolvent in their obligations in the future but the fed and treasury will at least buy them more time to structure some kind of safety net.

  • Vardoger

    not sure yet, still waiting for my rosetta stone. I miss her when she is gone though. That glow is amazing.. I can't tell for sure but is that a pearl necklace she's wearing?

  • DZZ

    Implications?
    “MBIA announced it will establish a separate public finance insurance company by restructuring its principal insurance subsidiary. However, Standard & Poor's DOWNGRADED MBIA and its related entities this morning.”
    MBI up 40 % (too bad it is only trading @ sub $5

  • DrMalaka

    If this clown spends half an hour giving shout outs and then gifting my money to banksters I might take myself out of commission soon.

  • alphahorn

    Obama's on with the free money express, market should return to its decline now

  • Keirsten

    When does the campaign end?

  • alphahorn

    the performing president, hates the office only comfortable on the road

  • DrMalaka

    I want some free money!

  • rhae

    SPY having a Hellava time at my 60m critical 79.82…. just test ,test, test… so far

  • alphahorn

    then stop making your mortgage payments counselor

  • Vardoger

    Well said, thanks. Hopefully the fed and treasury buying more time and structuring safety nets won't make them insolvent…

  • rhae

    I suppose a Asc. T possible this morning in SPY, but it is not strong, I do not like irregular /wide time gaps on the rez.. line….

  • perspective

    people bitch and moan about moral hazard – the fed was constructed to introduce moral hazard at times like these. i agree in the ideal of libertarian thought – i just don't see a practical application without tearing the country apart in introducing it.

    sure hamilton was in all likelihood morally bankrupt – but it worked for a while and with a little tweaking it will work again. i am not willing to bet the farm on another ideal when the one we have is more good than bad.

    unfortunately for us – we are living through the growing pains of the systems evolution.

  • standard_and_poor

    This market is weak, barely made it past 23.6 retracement, which is why I suggested to rats
    to start shorting. Perhaps it will rally a bit more to 38.2% retracement level, I kinda of doubt it.

  • J-So

    Truth be told he has never lead anything in his life. He has never been in charge of anything. He is a great campaigner and he is great at delivering prepared speeches. He is sticking to his A-game.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Difficult fill, But I'm into first tranche short SGY at ave. 5.70
    (boy, i would love to short more going further lower, but it might just bounce instead. If it turns back down it is just coming apart at the seams…it seems)

  • jigdaddy

    does this plan make any sense to anyone? how about we start producing shit rather then worry about broke people who can't afford to buy shit anymore?

  • DrMalaka

    Like an idiot I never bought a house. While I saw the run up in prices all I ever said was owning a home was for suckers. How stupid of me to not count on the government bailing me out.

  • standard_and_poor

    Short some more.

  • alphahorn

    Sounds like another case of the man getting you down

  • jacksoo

    grabbed a few more ES at 793.25 – are you topping up on the way down?

  • DrMalaka

    What are these idiots clapping about? Oh, it's ASU where you get a free steak dinner with every application.

  • Vardoger

    unreal. You hear them chearing? They're obviously all economists in the crowd…. Does he have a nifty billboard on the podium like usual to inspire the herd?? David Palmer wouldn't be yapping it up like this

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Correct me if I'm wrong but IF a bank restructures a loan, I think they have to realize the result of the closure of the original transaction (mark-to-market) which books a loss. The banks have been avoiding booking losses – this is why they've been so slow to the mortgage modification party. If they foreclose, the carry the property at loan value – so no loss is booked until the property sells. The Govt is kicking in on the refi but that is after the loss is realized. I don't think this helps the banks, I don't think this helps the unemployed and I don't think this helps anyone who can't meet the L-T-V threshhold of 105%. And it doesn't help builders.

    However, this should be a boon to employed people in less depressed markets who want a really sweet refi deal. I guess that's a good thing.

  • standard_and_poor

    Any one in the mood for a tune?, classical, jazz, or rock

  • alphahorn

    yeah, let's chunk a ton of cash at trying to put an artificial floor in the real estate market. this is absurd

  • Vardoger

    Thanks Prez, the market is so confident in you we just put a turd through the bottom of the up channel from this morning. Keep up the good work sir

  • alphahorn
  • jacksoo

    coldplay

  • DrMalaka

    How about some blues? Howlin Wolf maybe?

  • anotherone

    According to Robert Reich, one of Obama's economic advisors, if you're a white construction worker or highly skilled you shouldn't get much of the stimulus money.

    http://www.thedailychange.com/obama-administrat

    So, they're going to destroy the dollar by borrowing an abominable amount from future generations, and then funnel that money not to those who are most capable of using it, but to others on the basis of race or need. That's not stimulus, that's redistribution.

    What do you think that's going to do to our economy and society?

  • perspective

    he just LED the greatest political campaign ever and was elected the first african american president with a muslim middle name. that's no small feat considering the deck that was stacked against him without even opening up his mouth.

    get off this crap that he isn't a leader. i have yet to see one with more potential.

    as for just delivering “prepared speeches” – at least he helps write them. for all intensive purposes i look for a president to express with eloquence the will, hopes and visions of the people he leads.

  • jacksoo

    wondering if we might not get a late day rally if nothing else to let the MMs offset some of the Feb expirations

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Stick it to the man!

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    some Bossa Nova

  • DZZ

    Great call:
    VIX now has support?
    http://screencast.com/t/mXqiJye4

  • Keirsten

    Yep, that oughta do it.. that'll end the crisis. Mwahahahahaha.

  • Keirsten

    Stevie Ray Vaughn

  • Vardoger

    Producing shit? Are you crazy! That's what the immigrants and the emerging markets are for. We Americans don't need to work that hard or get dirty for minimum wage!! We're pimps, everything gonna be irie!

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    links don't work

  • slartybardfast

    well that didnt last long. Unhedged again.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    he's at a school – think they learned their lesson as the Denver audience was too subdued to be good TV – needed a more enthusiastic response

  • TomOfTheNorth

    It's going to end? Don't think so – that's what he does

  • de3600

    are you stupid or something that would only make sense jeez some people πŸ™‚

  • T. Waffle

    Brother Ben is on air.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Cool running mon!

  • alphahorn

    Now you're talking, job by this almost every day:

    http://www.amnestyusa.org/events/agm/agm2005/i/

  • slartybardfast

    Yes, but unfortunately for us, Bernanke and Geitner don't know what they are doing. They are conducting a live experiment.

  • standard_and_poor

    Yes did I hear “Bitches Brew from the back row.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qn6yP7EiiK0

  • BalaB

    Keirsten…..Excellent Choice.

    : )

  • Douala

    Erikd

    you're toooo quiet today…what does your crystal ball tell you…. rally or plunge?

  • TomOfTheNorth
  • Vardoger

    Devil Went Down to Georgia- Charlie Daniel's Band, seems appropriate..

  • asetrader

    Potential reversal pattern developing in XLF

    http://www.screencast.com/t/eYieFsnzAsJ

  • alphahorn

    where's Mole? like someone said “party at Mole's” and everyone got the message but Mole

  • standard_and_poor

    Here's my favorite Stevie Ray song, written by one of my favorit guitarists (Jimi H.):
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAG-kX_IlUw

  • alphahorn

    A must see, the money hole:

    http://www.theonion.com/content/video/in_the_kn

  • Vardoger

    Great song for the chop, I'm a huge miles fan… nice call!

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    POT live today

  • BalaB

    NICE

  • Rhett

    The reason 795 is so important is because its a massive trendline.

    The slope originates ages ago across the 2007 highs http://screencast.com/t/yObqCArCER
    and here is the close up http://screencast.com/t/sHEFTBN6

    Its traditional when a major trendline is broken to come up and tag it from the bottom, (which is what we are doing now) and then…..
    collapse!

    -Rhett

    (blah blah blah, there are stops above this trendline, so… if its broken to the upside there will be a gush up, but…that will just lead to a repeat of last Thu.)

  • T. Waffle

    Mole thanks I will keep that in mind.

  • BalaB

    Dude…all i can do is laugh when I see him play. He's just so freaking good.
    As much as I try, I can't even play with 1/8 of his gravitas

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    “if you love America – you throw its money in the hole”
    …nice vid, thx

  • http://alphahorntrading.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Charlie G’s latest, GS partners having margin calls on their own stock

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    um, think you misheard – the request was for Spinal Tap’s “Big Bottom (aka The Supertangas Anthem)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXy0hZDIrmY

  • perspective

    it is VERY easy to say during a financial crisis that the officials don't know what they are doing. it's like shooting fish in a barrel. it's populism – lou dobbs style. the fed and treasury were confined to acting only after the crisis erupts. it is the way the system works and has worked for quite a while.

    all systems have breakdowns and crisis. i don't buy for one minute Bernanke, Geithner or Summers don't know what they are doing or don't have merit in their current positions. sure its a fluid situation. capitalism in its broadest sense is an experiment.

  • Keirsten

    Yep- the Ags have been a good play today. Had to kick GS to the curb until it shows me a little more this afternoon.

  • Keirsten

    Nice long play S & P, thanks!

  • J-So

    My post was not meant to be negative towards Obama. In fact it may take him some time before he can find his groove. His victory was impressive as you note, but now he must govern and this is MUCH different than running a campaign. Time will tell if he becomes successful or not. : )

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    I have a stop now on GS at 82.29, following that large block there.
    (this one diving on CNBC report about GS managers having margin call issues…not sure yet as i was watching the onion videos at the time)

  • jacksoo

    they’re a bunch of greedy *astards – tell me where in history you can find honest folk where such wealth and power is available? Doesn’t work that way – huge financial gain will always drive errant behavior.

  • molecool

    You guy are obviously bored – how about we focus on charts?

  • Erikd

    RE-POST:T.B. Aurelius asked me to post these two charts for the evil rats http:VIX chart…To my eyes…..they both look like coiling…..for ……..$VIX http://screencast.com/t/mXqiJye4
    httpTLT chart for evil readers:http://screencast.com/t/JPDv1dPK5

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Bot POT , 81.48 (might have to switch my hedge to here and out of GS, we'll see)

  • Leon

    for some reason I cannot reply to someone else's comment, so that's why I'm forced to post it as a new comment. For those of you following POT, do you have a view on where you think it's headed over the next week or two?

  • standard_and_poor

    Watch spx 794, if poke through it probability of seeing 38.2% retracement increases.

  • DrMalaka

    That is why it is just like TARP. Either the government overpays for the mortgage or the bank will not sell it. Simple as that. So long as the banks continue to bribe our politicians and try to get the taxpayer to cover their losses the banks will not sell at market value.

  • http://www.blog.donnaklinenow.com dkpa

    Finally, the truth about TARP:

    http://blog.donnaklinenow.com/?p=919

  • DZZ

    MR. XLF I stuck your link below to help!

  • standard_and_poor

    Here's the great Jobim plaiying “desafinado” which means untuned. Nice art in background.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Qi3TTMWoYM

  • Erikd

    plunge still coming, XLF to make fresh lows today…

  • standard_and_poor

    Yep road trip to hell is back on.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Added to POT 80.60

  • thefinancedude

    Can anyone suggest a charting software or website that actually lets you save charts with technical lines drawn on them? I have searched for a few days and can't seem to find one that doesnt want a monthly fee that's worth anything. What is everyone using around here?

  • standard_and_poor

    Jimi in Monterey playing a great Howling Wolf tune -“Killing Floor”.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwwpXvQDsjc

  • rhae

    Would you like to see where your Stimulus money is going? Anyone prone to illness should not look…

    http://www.stimuluswatch.org/

  • bergs

    Leon
    If you have ZoneAlarm for your security suite go to privacy tab/site list/find disqus and check mark all green under the cookie control section header.
    took me quite awhile to figure that one out.

    Hope this helps

  • BalaB

    “DJ S&P”

    Nice choices

  • TomOfTheNorth

    The site has been 'glitchy' over here too

  • yazzer

    I added to my puts but immediately hedged – my long puts in the Qs are Apr and Jun – I hedged with a calendar spread with the Mar's…This will allow me to benefit if we have that deep downdraft but also soften any blow should the market jerk upward…

  • Mr.Trader

    looks like bullish divergences are being made – on the hourly ES chart and as described my Marty C here http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarke

  • perspective

    my apology if i came off strong – i would just like to give him a bit more credit than “he has never been in charge of anything”.

    you get elected the first black president with or without a muslim middle name and you know how to lead people. he's been in office three weeks – i am behind him at this point in his presidency.

  • Vardoger

    Think or Swim

  • Reza

    I am still in FAZ, thanks for the updates

  • anotherone

    Here's where Robert Reich thinks it shouldn't go.

    http://www.thedailychange.com/obama-administrat

  • jacksoo

    whats your tgt/timeline CDe – stock or options? Saw that Soros has bght into POT.

  • Erikd

    I am still short front month contracts and will hold them until target range is hit XLF 7.00-7.50 or we close above XLF 8.07 area.
    no emotions, just a boring system that works for me…

  • Chrys

    Think or Swim (TOS) is the brokerage. They provide free software (Prophet Charts) which a lot of people around here use.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Pyramid further into HST short here, 4.07

  • de3600

    fslr could be breaking down only took 2 months

  • Douala

    Thanks !

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    MS looks like its going to pop up .Has been forming a triagle on a 5 min chart for 1 1/2 now. Or it could plunge

  • DrMalaka
  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Out of 50% of my GS at 84.05 (sm gain somehow)
    rest is w stop at 82.78

  • de3600

    ST. JOHN'S, Antigua (Reuters) – Hundreds of people lined up to withdraw money from banks in Antigua and Caracas affiliated with Texas billionaire Allen Stanford, a day after the tycoon was charged with an $8 billion fraud.

    Its a mini madoff πŸ™‚

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    If it goes to the lower 7's we will all have CAKE πŸ™‚ for a second day

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    LOL We won't be bored when we're out spending our cash.

  • thefinancedude

    Thats hilarious…i already use it but it doesnt work right or i dont know how to use it. everytime i draw trend lines on a large scale, say more than ten years and then i zoom into it to add more lines on a shorter timeframe, the other lines dont show! So i can't figure out how to make it work the way i want so i was going to switch. I was trying to just buy the prophet chart program but there isn't one, only a service. Sotkcharts wont save annotations to charts unless you're paying for the highest service they offer. Thanks for the advice.

  • Mr.Trader

    I use Wave59 – It has a subscription fee but for me it is well worth the monthly cost.

    If you want to check the software out you can go here to do so: http://www.wave59.com/default.asp?refer=831&ban

    Here are a few charts to give you an idea http://news.webshots.com/album/570162260XYNwFL?…

    You can draw plot anything on any chart and save them either to photo or pdf files.

    I have been using this software for over 2 months but I'm still learning and getting accustomed to all of the powerful features it includes. The indicators you saw on my chart are just a very small sample of what is offered by the software – If you click on the hyperlink I provided, I would highly recommend you click on the β€œfree downloads” link in the left-had pane, near the bottom, right above β€œresources” and check out some of the videos of how to use the software, its very impressive. If you like the videos, you can also read about the software by clicking on any of the links in the top of the left-hand pane.

    If you like what you see in the videos, they have a 30-day free trial and an online trading community, blog, and chatroom (see http://www.trader59.com) where people share ideas, custom scripts, and more.

    And if you do end up trying the software out and liking it, they have a referral program where if you refer your friends, etc – you can get your monthly rate reduced and even make money (possibly) if you get enough people interested.

    If you have any more questions you can email me at mayash01.at.(yaho) (misspelled on purpose)

  • wengue

    Bigcharts.com for free 20 min delayed intraday charts. Ninja Trader for free, real time streaming charts: needs an external data feed, though (you can prolly use your broker but check first). Both permit chart annotations that can be saved.

  • Lordted

    Any brave Gold traders on this board?

  • jigdaddy

    did anyone just see bernake hesitate from the last question about his thoughts on banks being nationalized?? absolutely priceless!!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Good to see GS partners having margin calls

  • BalaB

    Yeah, I've been a “chatty kathy”

    Will do.

    : )

  • alphahorn

    My only wish is we could keep Ben on t.v. 24/7

  • Squidman

    By close above 8.07 do you mean on your 2 day 30 min cycle?

  • alphahorn

    several off and on, i personally think it's about a week too early to start a short

  • Keirsten

    The Trading Gods were smiling down on me this morning. Glad I took my pound of flesh and bailed. LOL

  • little fish

    3000 YEARS OF HISTORY SHOWS US…
    THE PRIMARY FUNCTION OF GOVERNMENT IS TO PRETEND TO FAIL

    recent examples = Fannie & Freddie, TARP 1, Bush Jr., 9-11-01, etc. etc.

  • hindawg

    SPX tricky tricky- looks corrective, B wave. C would be 16 + point 5 wave structure (801). where I get shorter than a 3 legged midget on stilts.

    Gold TL W5 987 πŸ™‚ it may be time.

  • Vardoger

    Since we're inevitably due for a bounce at some point (possibly to 830-850) I am looking at some individual stocks to go long. RIMM, POT, MOS, GS are some individual names I'm comfortable with if I get a good entry. I am just starting the process of going through charts but if anyone else has some candidates please share. Also, any take on RIMM Keirsten, I know you watch trade them from time to time…?

  • Enfinity

    It's a mini federal reserve.

    πŸ™‚

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Sell off still has higher probability, IMV…

  • Vardoger

    Hey Mole- any thoughts on German banks getting nationalized? ….Bernake must be so relieved when these are over with.

  • Lordted

    Ta. I can wait until next week… It still looks strong up here. Get a nose bleed shorting at this altitude

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Short initial tranche of XEC 21.98

    oils getting killed today – SFY could be a flier for the eps due in the morning; debating that one here

  • Keirsten

    Short POT stop @ 81.13

  • Erikd

    closing in on that 7.85 level again, cake is below that level…

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    added to XEC short 21.87

  • molecool

    Can we please stop the music requests? I would like to keep this focused on trading.

  • MaxPainMan

    VIX is pretty weak today

  • Pone

    Do you think XLF is going to bounce down off of 8.00?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Loaded now on XEC, another tranche short 21.91

  • Keirsten

    Those are my faves Var, as you know. I think there are probably some other under $20's out there we can probably grab too, just haven't compiled a list yet.

  • Keirsten

    Youch, stopped out on POT.

  • Keirsten

    Sizable block sells firing off down here currently.

  • http://alphahorntrading.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    rightly or wrongly when i trade it i use GLD and it’s approaching a double top around 99, I might play it then, plus if the market rallies next week the combo might work

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Stopped on remaining GS long here

  • ratboy

    POT is bad for you, mmmmkay

  • alphahorn

    plunge then pop in a few days

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Meridith Whitney launching her own firm; everyone running for covr πŸ˜‰

  • DZZ

    HPQ

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Full now on HST short; added at 3.99

  • http://maximumleverage.blogspot.com/ Max Leverage

    I'm considering F, XIDE. Watching TSO closely.

  • Keirsten

    heh heh

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Merely a hedge against shorts at moment; if mkt ends weakly i will let it go and if not i'll hold to tomorrow. Stock is on my list of eligible buys, but I don't have a target/timeline; at least not while im focused more on shorting that getting long

  • Erikd

    yes,if it even tries again.

  • alphahorn

    Meredith Whitney leaving Oppenheimer to start her own investment bank, initially research and trading, will add banking down the line.

    the next wave begins

  • Keirsten

    That flippin' GS was a beast, wasn't it?

  • Vardoger

    Very close to a double bottom in VMC (they have some internal issues but should be good for a pop) from the Nov lows. I'll keep looking…

  • DrMalaka

    That seemed like a tight stop, do you always use such tight numbers?

  • jigdaddy

    come on lets to the days high so i can reload…please!!

  • MaxPainMan

    i have to admit… i went short yesterday….

  • BalaB

    Yes (and $USD simultaneously)
    Tight Stops

  • Fujisan

    At the beginning of Feb, I made a posting about possible Feb SPY/SPX expiration price suggesting buying OTM 80 or 90 butterfly instead of buying a flat out front month naked options. Now we have a couple of more days to go before expiration, my 78/80/82 butterfly that I bought at 10 cents back then is now worth 50 cents (5 times as much as the cost).

    I also discussed the tendency of the underlying stocks which are drawn to the strike price with the most open itnerests toward the expiration. Currently, SPY has the most open interests at 80 strike price and the chances that it will expire right around 80 is significantly high and my 80 butterfly position pretty much covers 1 standard deviation movement of SPY until the expiration.

    SPX probably will open up right at 800 on Friday morning (which would be the settlement price) and I am planning to close my position right at the opening. I am expecting to cash in at least 65~70 cents off of 10 cents butterfly.

    For those who are interested in placing March butterfly, I would put in 10 cents GTC order for 73/75/77 butterfly. Currently SPY has the most open interests at 75 and I would expect March options to be expired right around 75.

  • Keirsten

    On a whipsaw day in/out trade, yes…. better to break even and recycle the cash, find a better entry. On a conviction trade no, I use mental stops only on the big ATRs. Not that I recommend that to anyone though. πŸ˜‰

  • Erikd

    2day/2minute cycle, but one with a looser stop criteria could use the 30min cycle.. does not matter now as we are below 7.85 now….

  • localandbitter

    How do we get in on the IPO

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Long yen futures 1.0668

    Meredith Whitney leaving Oppenheimer to start her own firm

    A bottom is out there somewhere folks a la Elaine “wink” Garzarelli

  • Vardoger

    Was on the phone and missed CNBC talking about stock Soros and other hedgies were buying as of 12/31. Can someone please let me know?

  • katzo7

    Nooooooo, nooooooooo Mr. Bill.
    Let's go down so I can make some money.

  • Vardoger

    Interesting Fuji, great trade and I hope it follows through for you. I have never used this strategy but it seems like a great risk/reward. thanks

  • katzo7

    I watch stochs on five levels, 1,5,10,20 and day. They are ALL starting to roll over and point down now.

    Don't know for sure but we could be setting up for a substantial down move.

  • mikeri

    Noticed the SPY mirrored the Nikkei. Take a look. Now, the US mkts have an extra hour. Otherwise, we flat line out in a short range.

  • alphahorn

    i wasn't really paying attention, i do recall POT

  • david888

    Pot, mon …

  • rhae

    My SPY 60m has spent enough time in the basement to move critical down to 79.44 (from 79.82)

  • Studio 89

    fuji,
    do you like the legs to be close I tryed a75/82/89 and was doing good untill yesterday. i still made 80%. But I really like the cost of your trade.
    thanks

  • BalaB

    Awe F*&^
    Cramer giving props to Gold.

    Tighter Stops Set

  • YOGI

    Going short the GLD–finally got the courage and the level I wanted!!!

  • jigdaddy

    added to puts again and bought some FAZ πŸ™‚ die XLF DIE!

  • alphahorn

    I get the feeling the other shoe is about to drop, after all this consolidating, we should have a nice down finish

  • standard_and_poor

    Momentum from 12 pm has markedly slowed, don't like.

  • MaxPainMan

    wow! i wish F@!KING Gold would move like that (but in the opposite direction….)

  • geckoman

    SPX 790 looking like the battle line.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folder

  • TomOfTheNorth

    “Jamie Diamond – Government Shill ” Rally underway

  • Vardoger

    Still looking for 801 to put in another short leg to front-run all the data tomorrow. Top of channel currently ~795 on /es

  • Insect Overlord

    Not that my directional calls have been worth have a fuck lately, but I think gold has approached a very defensible shortable position. If I can get good confirmation on two time periods (namely, 1hr and 15 minute) then I'll short it.

  • mtvernon

    Exactly, I just got out of the way. hope to reload higher

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like we got a run up here… wonder if it will fizzle out like a bad fart

  • Enfinity

    It's $50 from a textbook double top and there's gravity pulling it to the round number of $1,000.

    Do the math…

  • rhae

    just attacked the SPY skirmish line… chart a few minutes stale, however lines, not

    http://screencast.com/t/cWxO9gvQiGf

  • MaxPainMan

    looks good, but a stop at 1029??? ouch….
    i'll probably cover sooner than that…

  • Fujisan

    Some people feel comfortable about having a wider range and some don't. It all depends upon the intention of your trade and risk/reward ratio. I use calendar spread for a range bound trade, and I use OTM butterfly for solely speculative purposes to enhance or hedge my position in case SPY goes out of the range.

    Remember, SPY has a tendency of being expired in 5 increments (i.e., 75, 80, 85) so as long as you have your shorts at 5s, you will be fine.

  • katzo7

    The sucker turned around and went the other way. MOFO.

  • Insect Overlord

    Actually, I probably would…at these levels, if I short I’ll likely cover at a breach of the previous high of 989.5.

  • standard_and_poor

    Less I forget: 54 minutes left. Per Jackso's request, sorry if I didn't get to any ones's request; what do
    you think this is, a radio station : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9j_RZDqYc4

  • rhae

    smells like a PPT fart

  • jigdaddy

    XLF failed retest of 8

  • Studio 89

    thanks

  • HungryNewt

    vix falling. watch out

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    In CXO short 21.66

  • alphahorn

    just bought more FAZ on this bump, i own so much FAZ and BGZ it's getting scary

  • katzo7

    Hey guys, stop with the short GOLD talk. You will jinx my profits.

  • perspective

    how much is so much?

  • DrMalaka

    I think he picked up three odd lots of 6, 14, 11 πŸ™‚

  • v8muscle

    down $11 bucks today… not even worth closing out my positions to reload at 810 if we even get there

  • Insect Overlord

    That's why I will not enter this unless I get solid confirmation…a rule I've been half-assing lately and it's taken its toll.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    The way he gushed over the government inputs was nauseating. He used to be the straight-shooting, go-to guy on Wall Street.
    As a contrary indicator, should sell the shit out of this thing if he's been brought to heel to this extent – his performance implies to me it's even worse than worst case .

    Oh how far the mighty have fallen…..

  • katzo7

    NO, he goes in big.

  • alphahorn

    let's just say i own 5 digit shares of those two combined, plus i own SDS and SRS

  • perspective
  • jacksoo

    good man – now how about that crash πŸ˜‰

  • Insect Overlord

    Another look at gold with particular emphasis on the volume. We're at a confluence of RT level, pivot resistance, and a 2std dev band off the VWAP…

    http://screencast.com/t/yM7VIUshoL

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I will drive my backhoe there

  • observer

    Hi Mole,
    Did you ever think about offering the zero as a bundled service with the RLs?
    I think the zero is much more useful when the RLs are shown and the bundle will allow both you and Sweeties to make a profit.

    thanks,

  • El gAto

    Tech has been pretty steady….is it trying to lead us out? Breadth not that bad in tech land. Stops had to get taken out at 800 to have chance for a bullish move.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like this buying is running out of steam.lets see if they tank it the last 30 min like yesterday

  • molecool

    I asked him about that a few weeks back and he didn't like the idea. Sorry…. that's his decision. Maybe if many of you bug him about it? πŸ˜‰

  • DZZ

    There she goes into earnings πŸ˜‰

  • poopsquad

    Mole – meant to bring this up earlier but the tape has been so exciting I forgot. er nevermind. Anyway, I know you are pretty hung up on the Yen here……I think that correlation is gone. I'm a bond guy, not a currency trader, but some quick thoughts as to why…..Stock/credit puke in Oct was heavily driven by deleveraging. The Yen was a big carry trade among hedge funds and they were forced to buy Yen as they needed to meet margin on all the mortgage and equity marks they were getting wiped with…..Anyhow, it definitely gave the Yen a 'flight to quality' nature. But fundamentally, why would you want Japanese currency for safety here ? I think the Yen is breaking down and decoupling from equities…..The dollar, however, will remain the flight to quality to currency. I suspect equity weakness and dollar strength correlation is going to hold tighter in this next leg as Europe (eastern especially) goes haywire….

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    XLF keeps banging its head at 8. I think it will drop to the floor finally

  • TomOfTheNorth

    The exits could get a little clogged here – turning quickly

  • alphahorn

    Just roll over and die and get it over with

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    added again to SIVB short , 17.42

  • katzo7

    Not that easy, guy.

  • alphadriven

    I was thinking the same thing. I will shoot him an email.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    you BSD you!

  • unSane

    EOD is going to be a whipsaw one way or the other. Stay safe.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Is she a Supertanga?

  • alphahorn

    how many esinpee points can we shed in this last 1/2 hour, 10, 15 let's see

  • katzo7

    If it was that easy, you'd get rich, do something dumb, and then we'd be watching you do the perp walk on cnbc. LOL

  • Lordted

    I was tempted but have held off.

    Thanks for the reply

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    bailed out on the MYGN long 85.36
    (not happy here below 10-day ma , as long as it remains extended)

  • Squidman

    PPT seems to be learning. I can hear the “bottom” callers now.

  • Lordted

    I was thinking the smae – like to see a rally start to short Gold at the
    same time

  • jacksoo

    the time decay works wonders for the MMs doesn't it – lots of zig-zag, end the day flat just prior to expiration removes another chunk of change from the investor.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    I don't see any upside coming today, rather think we'll test the day's low, then thru to who knows where….

  • Fujisan

    You're welcome. Hope you can take advantage of this strategy sometimes.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Sold half my POT (short)hedge, 81.45.
    …going into the nite net-short

  • katzo7

    Whom ever posted that, I want to thank them. That was better than profits.
    What is BSD?

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    I was just thinking about that this morning! I'll also send him an email. Wonder how many clients he has.

  • unSane

    I'm long popcorn here and otherwise flat.

  • Fujisan

    Tom, you keep changing your outlook every day. Is this becoming your daily routine?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    VNO on a bounce now. A gap-higher on that one tomorrow could rep. a decent short entry

  • mtvernon

    Mole, CPC relevant today on wed expiration week? i fear the bull rip too but just got back in on short side as this day's attempt looks weak and there is decent volume in XLF with no headway.

  • alphahorn

    yeah, i really didn't won't to go to bed this exposed, but i'm holding thru the night, i just don't think we're done to the downside yet

  • Erikd

    XLF below 8.07 level again today. same process as yesterday…- GAP down overnight with no retracement tomorrow… staying short..
    chart http://screencast.com/t/JMCYlOVdq5
    positive close on the $SPX today will reset the previous 2 days down., which will open up the downside for alot more downside the next 2 days on the SPX..

  • katzo7

    EOD will be nothing to write home about. Shot her wad the other day.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Big Swingin' Dick

  • Paleface

    PPT or MMs on the VIX 5 min
    http://screencast.com/t/urcnQbhgOF7

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    NEW POST

  • jacksoo

    clears oversold to a degree – also suspect MMs holding price line today after zig-zag to work off some time premium before expiration – possible?

  • molecool

    πŸ™‚

  • molecool

    What you are saying makes sense – however I still see the correlation kick in during NYSE hours. Whenever the Yen kicks up equities turn down.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Konichiwa Fujisan,

    Haven't change my outlook at all: bearish equities, treasuries & gold; bullish crude oil and eventually ags

    As for my avatar, just wearing my thinking cap today as I expected this to be a challenging tape.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Grasshopper maybe think too much…

  • TomOfTheNorth

    NYSE, Russell, S&P, Dow, NASD all in red @ the bell – now the Dow in the green by 3

    I'll take it if this was the rally – lived to fight another day

  • jacksoo

    LOL – yeah probably, what's your 'not thinking so much' thoughts on today, more importantly tmrw?

  • Fujisan

    Konichiwa, Tom,

    I'm looking forward to your tomorrow's outlook.

    I guess we agree half way. I am waiting for Gold to retrace so that I could go long (I'm ST bearish, but LT bullish), but I'm not touching crude oil in anyways. I know that Crude oil is below the cost at this point and eventually take off, but no buyers are coming in so there is no point of taking any position at this time.

    I'm long USD/JPY and GBP/JPY. GBP/JPY broke 50 SMA today and the current target at 145.

  • slartybardfast

    ” the fed and treasury were confined to acting only after the crisis erupts.”

    How were they confined? They could have taken measures in advance. Why did they allow the largest credit expansion in history to occur under their noses? Why did they allow the CDS market to build so large and remain totally unregulated? What – they didn't know what was going on in the CDS business? Had they simply regulated that one industry, that would have gone a long way toward stopping this thing from spiraling out of control (Bear Sterns, AIG, Lehman etc). And if they had have done a little bit of regulation in the mortgage business, that also would have done a lot too. Anyone with a pulse was getting a no doc no-money-down mortgage. Are you telling me they had to wait for the sub-prime crisis to erupt before they could regulate the mortgage industry?

    We have the people that were a part of creating the problem, trying to fix it. You can't fix a credit problem just by throwing (credit) money that we don't have at it. Handing out taxpayers money to save and support failing businesses and banks, makes it much much worse in the long run.

    Like I said, they have no clue what they are doing. They are simply printing money and hoping like hell that will fix it.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I see that we have more downside short term, but can't see going straight down to hell either.
    I think we will see a rally after a spike down below previous low on SPX, but that lower low will also get taken out by another choppy leg down.
    Just when the world seems to be ending another rally should start reaching back up to beginning FEB level, and another bear leg should begin…
    I am practically writing a novel here…hhhhh;-)
    But this is how I like to visualize…, and of course when a different turn occurs, I rewrite….

  • standard_and_poor

    Tomorrow afternoon, I'll post chart soon.

  • standard_and_poor

    I would if I wasn't so bloated, just trying to get rats short cause I really think it'll pay off big.

  • standard_and_poor

    Tomorrow afternoon, I'll post chart soon.