VIX Reversal Signal – Day One

Yes, I’m back – but my time is extremely limited right now – so without further ado I will present my case. Something very rare occurred today – an event that has not occurred for several months now:

Today represents step 1 in a technical pattern called a VIX reversal signal. To illustrate the pattern I have marked the sell signals in orange and the buy signals in green on the chart above. Since last summer we mainly saw VIX buy reversal signals – all of them concluded successfully. A VIX buy reversal is of course the inverse of a VIX sell reversal signal. The last time we got the former was on October 30th, at which time a certain analyst I won’t name here recommended to more or less ignore it as the market was supposed to continue downwards. I think this is one ignominious call he’ll have to live with as the ensuing bear squeeze wiped out a lot of his bearish followers.

For the noobs – here are the rules:

For a $VIX confirmed signal you need 3 events:

1. A close outside of the 2.0 Bollinger Band (20-day SMA)
2. A close back inside the 2.0 BB – this issues the signal
3. A higher close (sell) or lower close (buy) than the close of the day back inside the 2.0 BB – this confirms the signal.

Once you get those 3 events a major reversal usually occurs within the next week. The sell signals are far more accurate than the buy signals.

Yes, that last sentence should make any bear hopeful – but it’s been the other way around in the past few months and that’s the reason I only loaded up on a very moderate amount of index puts right before the closing bell. Of course technically speaking I should wait until the confirmation, which is at least two days away – assuming we get it that is. BTW – why index puts? Only because I didn’t have the time to parse through my overbought filter and pick specific symbols. Well, let’s see what happens tomorrow. A close back inside the 2.0 BB would lead me to increase my positions size.

Understandably many of you are nervous about shorting this market – and rightfully so I might add. You can only get your dick caught in the elevator doors that many times until you start remembering to zip up your pants after taking a leak. But I have a very fundamental rule when it comes to trading. If I encounter a time tested technical signal that indicates a market reversal is in the making then I have to take it, no matter what. The day my emotions or a directional bias prevents me from following a statistically proven technical trigger is when I must retire from trading.

For what it’s worth: It would be nice to see a down day for a change – this market is getting on my nerves. I suffer from a mental condition that prevents me from doing what everyone else is doing, especially when it comes to trading. In the past few months everyone seems to be doing the same thing over and over again – and it’s working for them. That’s not how it has worked during 99.9% of the stock market’s history.

I’ll leave you with that to chew on.

Mole (some of you might remember me)

P.S.: The Rammstein notification module has now been activated – have fun 🙂