Vegas Baby Vegas!

So I’m off to Vegas for a few days of fun & games plus to visit an old friend. Frankly, I’m not much of a gambler – never was. Although I learned a lot about game theory and developing edge from professional gamblers I prefer my charts and being able to wait for that perfect setup. I’m sure some of you disagree but to each his/her own.

Expect me back Tuesday morning, maybe a bit hungover but ready for action as usual. In the interim I have asked my three musketeers (i.e. Scott, Volar, and Fearless) to fill the void, assuming of course there’s something to talk about.

Before I run to the airport here’s a quick snapshot of my ES volume profile chart. We are now sitting smack in the middle of a deep volume hole – if we get above 1315 or so then I think we’ll accelerate toward 1345. However there is no volume at all above that mark – nada, niente, rien, gar nichts. So if you are holding longs or maybe are risking a few OTM calls then be out and about at 1345.

Here’s a quick reminder for my intrepid subs:

More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed (non-recurring) or Zero Data Feed (recurring) or ES Gold (non-recurring) or ES Gold (recurring) or geronimo/ES (recurring) to view this content.

Alright, I’m outta here – see you next Tuesday! ;-)
Cheers,

This entry was posted on Friday, January 20th, 2012 at 1:52 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    gambling houses.  just like options.
    if you stay long enough, the house WILL win.
    enjoy!

  • Anonymous

    Mole you mean 1345?

  • Anonymous

    question:  how do you configure volume on your chart like that on the TOS charting program?  thanks.

  • Joe_Jones

    Mole’s travelling! Shorting time!!!! ;-)

  • Anonymous

    Vix embeded

  • Anonymous

    Looking out a year on volume versus price we get this chart. Not a hole but serious volume that served as resistance or at least a range bound channel. What do you guys think?

  • Anonymous

    Surely they wouldn’t give us a VIX sell signal, big drop end of day coming?

  • volar

    VIX/VXV is getting retarded.

    Also consider SKEW and CSFB Fear (similar to Skew)

    I mean we are nearing full retard- we are NOT in OCT or DEC. Trade at your own risk

  • Anonymous

    Potential daily Bearish Engulfing pattern on copper

  • Anonymous

    This is probably the best time to visit Vegas. The Adult Entertainment Expo is in session. Have fun Mole ;)

    http://www.adultentertainmentexpo.com/

  • Fibz

    if you cross your eyes long enough they might stay that way.

  • Anonymous

    Silver is on fire and natural gas is getting a bid….somethings is up…greece default?

  • Anonymous

    Vix to stay embedded for the long walk up in the S&P 500?

  • Anonymous

    Shhhhhh, Mole’s girl wasn’t supposed to know that!!

  • volar
  • Anonymous

    Volar, I’m not sure what you mean by “full retard” and “Trade at your own risk”. Can you explain? For the record, I’m in cash ATM.

  • Anonymous

    Second that. Please explain Volar. Are you saying its dangerous to be long here?

  • volar

    yes sir- 4 of my 8 daily indicators are at or above flash crash levels. And the other 4 are not that far off. all of this is going on with poor seasonality and a market that has yet to make a new high.. scares me a bit.

    And i might add i have been long since 4 emini points of the low- when Fearless and i were the only bulls to be seen for miles around.

    I will prob. put up a post latter today but my stat model says 2 weeks -2months out there is a 20% chance we have one of those -50 emini days….

  • Anonymous

    Thx Volar. Appreciate it. After the volatility last year -50 points/day seems entirely possible.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Its the HFT computers fighting the human counterparts! Skew the charts make humans crazy.

  • volar

    I built a custom indicator of VIX, VXV, SKEW, and CSFB Fear indexes

     

  • Joe_Jones

    I am sure he knew that already ;-)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    boom is sooooo banned.

  • Anonymous

    My QQQ puts are falling in value today hahaha. (frosty).

  • Anonymous

    OK bears, let’s see what you got!

  • Anonymous

    @mole Have fun! Dont pull your love muscle!

  • Anonymous

    DX may be stabilising here? I am hoping for a rally from here.

  • Galazkiewicz

    Telling chart from MS via ZH that reveals how credit and equity markets are viewing the world

    http://screencast.com/t/VleWvOiVM

  • Joe_Jones

    I actually wish them to keep a low profile today.

  • Joe_Jones

    hehe! 

  • volar

    me too that would make place us in step 1 of a vix sell signal 

  • Galazkiewicz

    From the looks of the 5min ZL, they don’t have much.

  • Galazkiewicz

    BTW, nice to have you hangin’ around here again.  Hope all got settled with the MF thing.

  • Anonymous

     yeah. how about some vxx?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    picked up some SDS.
    just in case Volar is on to something & the Mole omen works again. ;-)

  • Anonymous

    cough* The only bulls? ;)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    i dunno.  it’s an ETN.
    and a bit pricier, $28 vs $17

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    YES.
    the only.you were posting bulls coughing up blood dude.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/32808bb8-c4dd-454e-9fa2-74922cb10a9f/2012-01-20_1509.png
    mmm I did. If we are talking about recent past days yes. I only felt like running with the bulls in Oct, Nov. But this chart is other reason  why I’ve been posting bulls coughing blood. It is full retard.

  • Anonymous

    Bulls running on borrowed time….I am full short here!!!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    you folks are going to laugh but I bought into BOIL this morning, some TZA based off Rut divergence..why not bring the market down before fed day to squeeze them into QE thoughts…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    knife catcher
    (GG salutes you)

  • seek_truth

    FAZ is just hit a new low that was not matched by a new high in /ES usually these are closely correlated, so one more data  point pointing to some monkey business.  

  • Anonymous

    AAPL looks divergent as well. Earnings are Tuesday, and likely a blow out quarter, but it fell out of an uptrending channel today.

  • volar

    brooo…

    check out CSFB fear and daily raw CBOE equity P/C ratio

  • Anonymous

    Retail retards are even more short the Euro, these people just won’t give up…
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eur-shorts-hit-new-record

  • Galazkiewicz

    $SPX is trying to give up the inside day into the close…

  • Joe_Jones

    VIX sell signal !!!
    Step 1
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p93436389400 
    Wooohoooo!
    Payback time!

  • volar
  • Anonymous

    Ignore it, it will stay embedded as the great market melt up of 2012 continues!

  • volar
  • Joe_Jones

    Troll!

  • Joe_Jones

    [wipe tear of joy]

  • Anonymous

    Volar if you dont mind please tell us newbies how you would try to play this. Whether you are right or wrong it would help us out in how a pro thinks.

  • Anonymous

    Yeah. JBTFD. Wait where the dip at…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    technically?  Yes.

    In complex vertebrates, including humans, the amygdalae perform primary roles in the formation and storage of memories associated with emotional events. Research indicates that, during fear conditioning, sensory stimuli reach the basolateral complexes of the amygdalae, particularly the lateral nuclei, where they form associations with memories of the stimuli. The association between stimuli and the aversive events they predict may be mediated by long-term potentiation, a sustained enhancement of signalling between affected neurons.[3] 

  • Joe_Jones

    Time to revert to my old avatar

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Why .8? Also, does anyone factor in weeklies?
    edit: …maybe you didn’t draw that bright blue line near .8…

  • Joe_Jones

    LMAO!!! :D

  • TwinTurboRX7

    Looks like we have neg div forming now on both of the hourly zero panel…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (GG is rolling around on the sawdust floor, ecstatic)
    it’s a graph fantasia!  free for the Leeeeeches!
    crumbs!…CRUMBS!!!

  • Anonymous

    A little markup (for fun).

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    GG tries to give, as well as take.

    SLV.  Hmmm, surprising?

    http://i42.tinypic.com/28h30j9.png

  • Anonymous

    thank you….took half off on run up…volume is the tell…knife catching was at 20…

    big dip incoming…
    http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm 

  • Anonymous

    Not sure anyone knows it… it might be obscure. There actually is an ETF that plays the VIX directly. I thought you might be interested. It’s on TSX, symbol HVU. It’s a double leveraged ETF from Horizons BetaPro. You can find it on stockcharts as HVU.TO.
    …Rather low volume and the spread tends to be high because of this. I played a little with it… On extreme days like this it might be useful.

  • Anonymous

    one more thing… tried to short it on a previous bullish VIX signal… didn’t catch. I didn’t call the broker to ask them why, but wasn’t lent the shares to short.

  • Fibz
  • volar

    Anybody have SKEW for today (or CSFB fear barometer)- neither working on my end

  • Joe_Jones
  • Fibz

    agree, but a strong dollar will hit the biggest (US) outsourcing companies particularly hard.

    http://trak.in/tags/business/2010/04/23/top-best-100-outsourcing-companies-2010/

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no.
    BUT, I have something to back up JJ’s avatar change.

    BEHOLD.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p41326364951

  • Joe_Jones

    Have to celebrate this day with “gusto”!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vb9t8-Oua2k  :-)

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/17abccfd-1fcf-4595-a3c0-47ac96a6bd77/2012-01-20_1810.png
    This is great! We are at levels that were seen in July, June, and..well you get the picture. But it could get lower. I wouldn’t bet on it however.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/f86614c4-f803-4531-8283-bbf0db5b03f8/2012-01-20_1828.png
    I found this, CMT, obviously divide by ten and you get the same, and btw yes those ratios for P/C are very low. The ratios are at levels we normally see before a clean up in risk. IMO there is way too much complacency in this market.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/f11190df-f1ef-4763-a6a2-7aea6dbf18ce/2012-01-20_1913.png
    WAIT A SECOND! I just read how the CSFB calculates the number. Thank you for the extra Tip Volar. This is really good and gives more evidence of why this market needs a new bull.

  • Fibz

    opera ftw.

  • Anonymous

    I this video very relaxing. 

  • volar

    CSFB is the same as skew IMO- u would think it is measuring dumb money- but not so…

    when the market conditions are right,  MMs heavily sell or do not sell one way or the other.

    MMs clearly sold puts at the lows and bot puts at the high

  • Anonymous

    Volar what do you make of this account from another forum I follow, its from a former floor trader.

    I’ve been watching the SPY trade for years, and I
    never saw action like yesterdays. There was a solid bid of about 200,000 shares
    that lasted for hours. Once we broke back above 131.15, this bid, unlike
    program trading, just stood there waiting to be hit. As the market advanced
    each penny to 131.28, that bid renewed 2cents beneath the advance and waited to
    be hit. When the ask collapsed into it, the bid either re-entered the market a
    penny higher.

    When the euro weakened, the bid allowed price to devolve to 131.07 before it
    reentered the market. The market slowly advanced with this one penny/200,000
    share bid till 131.31, and then a fast rally appeared. This was just money
    coming in.

    Sorry if this history sounds boring, but having been a market maker on the NYSE
    floor, I can’t tell you how unusual this was

  • Anonymous

    TOS has the SKEW at  129.24 down 0.36 from previous day

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What is this chart?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sounds like systematic accumulation to me.

  • Anonymous

    Can you add labels so that we know what we’re seeing?  My mind reading isn’t as sharp as it once was.

  • Anonymous

    Volar suggested yesterday that I take look at the raw data from the CBOE P/C ratios. I just popped it in open office spreadsheet to get this graph. We are at very low levels. Too much confidence out there is what this is telling me.

  • Anonymous

    Yes, the chart is showing that the puts bought are relatively high OTM for the moment.

  • Anonymous

    http://www.cboe.com/data/PutCallRatio.aspx
    Here is the link where I gathered the data.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/a46a66f7-952b-4778-8336-15fabee22d27/2012-01-21_1309.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/3fc1d3b3-74b9-4580-a3a3-dac15cb410d2/2012-01-21_1311.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/edd62ef8-2ae1-4243-b112-cc4f8b14d1ed/2012-01-13_1258.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/c592566f-a5b9-4e50-ade4-1a83c15de6c9/2012-01-05_1824.png
    Its rainy outside, already done going to the polls. So I think since it is very cozy right now in my pjs I would like to present a segment called optical illusions to fit with the Las Vegas theme. Recall January 5 when I mentioned the EUR/USD and how all those trend lines where the same and to be ready for around a 200 pip drop followed by the same amount ramp in that pair, I provided the chart. It was on the 13th on this month when the end of that last yellow line was reached and behold MAGIC…Not really sometimes things fit to perfectly, blah blah downgrades S&P your moma jokes whatever, it was just too perfect. I provided the Jan 5 chart in the EUR/USD chart of when I first discovered this. Well the same is occurring in the EUR/AUD. This will be a monster if it follows suit. All those black lines are duplicates. Of course you cannot laser point the entry point, which I never do anyhow I have about a 50-100 point buffer for when I decided to enter. I drew on there two blue boxes. Almost the same behavior. 

  • Anonymous

    Thx AMC

  • Anonymous

    Stop peeking. You are on vacation! Relax those back muscles.

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Bonds, does any rat care about bonds?
    http://i42.tinypic.com/16lz0ax.png

    High yield bonds are at a threshold of new highs.
    They took a heavy smack in the last half of 2011, but look how they recovered.

    Bull or Bear, IMHO it’s certainly time to keep an eye on it for the 2012 Year.

    -GG

  • Fibz
  • volar

    ok guys I should have a post comming

  • Joe_Jones

    Great find. Some better be cash rich in 2012.

  • Anonymous

     Terry Laundry, who knows his bonds, is recommending accumulation of FAGIX or JNK… at least for the next few weeks

  • volar

    NEW POST





    Zero Indicator

  1. poll

    • What is your average spread on the EUR/USD?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...


  2. search warrant


  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Don’t buy the dip this time
    2. No Crying Over Spilled Milk (Or Beer)
    3. Entries Do Not Matter
    4. Last Chance For The Bears
    5. Three Strikes You’re Out
    6. Binary Proposition
    7. Time To Wield The Iron
    8. Zone of Fuckery
    9. Whipsaw Galore
    10. Fridays Stunning Reversal and What it Means




  4. yes we can!



    NinjaTrader
    Kinetick