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Blood From A Stone
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Blood From A Stone

by The MoleJuly 11, 2017

That’s pretty much how trading equities has felt over the past two months or so. I’m not one to complain and obviously am always on the hunt for promising looking setups across other market verticals. What seems to drive most of the blog traffic is related to stocks and bonds however and the personal hell I’ve built for myself is one where I have to find something interesting to say about a sector that often simply spends extended periods going absolutely nowhere. Or in other words: summer tape.

2017-07-11_spoos

Theoretically speaking we’ve got ourselves one very juicy looking short setup on the E-Mini. Yesterday’s session strengthened our case by maintaining the current series of lower highs and lower lows on the short term panel.

2017-07-11_volume

The volume profile shows us still whipsawing inside a high volume range and there’s frankly no telling when or if we’ll be able to resolve either to the up or downside. Should the E-Mini drop below 2400 however then we could easily see as drop all the way into 2330.

2017-07-11_UVOL_DVOL

Yesterday’s session finished slightly negative however UVOL/DVOL was pointing up. I very much enjoy seeing the opposite, e.g. a slightly bullish session which shows an increase in DVOL.

2017-07-11_NQ

And finally what really nails the coffin shut on the bearish case for me right now is that the NQ is actually starting to look like a symbol I would want to buy. That short term panel is suggesting a break out pattern and the daily closed above a NLBL. That’s usually a buy in my book. However given that both the YM and ES are pointing slightly lower I can’t justify getting involved on the equities side.

2017-07-11_USDJPY_udpate

The USD/JPY however has continued to trend beautifully and once again I’m advancing my trail by a few pips to lock in a bit more profit. Take a look at that 100-day upper BB I’m pointing at – that’s my preliminary target.

2017-07-11_USDJPY_correlation

And if you’re a gold bug then you definitely want to pay attention to this pair as gold has been correlated for a long time now. In other words, what happens in the Yen will most likely affect gold as well.

2017-07-11_USDJPY_LT

Here’s a long term perspective on the USD/JPY – weekly on the left and monthly on the right. I think that upper 25-week BB only has limited credibility but it happens to be very close to a prior spike high. And a push above that SH would most likely result in acceleration higher – after a retest of the 100-week SMA most likely. Also note the monthly context which shows us a NLBL near the 115 mark. So it’s fair to say that we’ll see some turbulences soon and that may also help gold find at least a temporary bottom. But if the USD/JPY continues higher from here later this year then the gold bugs are most likely heading into one long nasty winter season.

2017-07-11_AUDUSD_update

AUD/USD was a setup (for the subs) yesterday and it’s looking okay thus far but not ready yet to modify our ISL. I think this setup has great potential, however it’s early in the game and we may have to face a more pronounced retest of the 100-day SMA. One of the most promising looking setups right now however.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    maybe we can shake some blood this way…Nice write up Mole…the GC – USD-JPY sure is in tune as you say
    https://s23.postimg.org/3rtxaahqz/usd-jpy_gold_overlay_monthly.png

  • OJuice

    “Personal hell I’ve built for myself” I had a chuckle at this one at your expense. I for one would be fine if equities weren’t mentioned until a true entry was defined or a move started. I like a trip to the 2300s some time this summer, but, that could be next week or August. Who knows.

  • kudra

    held DUST overnight from $33 and laid it down at $33.75 this morn. Too anxious. GDX looks to be headed back to 21. Also short the QQQ via QID, but that trade looks to be a bust.

  • ridingwaves

    Hey what’s 2.3 billion dollars between friend….no big deal, signed Mr. Blankfein

    “Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the dominant commodities trader on Wall Street, is reviewing the direction of the business after a slump in the first half of the year,” Bloomberg reported, citing “people with knowledge of the matter.”

    Will Goldman exit commodities trading?

    In 2009, Goldman’s commodities trading revenues reached $3.4 billion. By 2016, it was down to $1.1 billion, “according to one of the people” cited by Bloomberg. In April, Goldman blamed its lousy first-quarter results in part on “significantly lower” net revenue from commodities trading. It pointed out at the time that client volumes suffered as crude oil volatility averaged the lowest level in over than two years.
    http://wolfstreet.com/2017/07/09/is-this-a-contrarian-buy-signal-for-the-commodities-bust/

  • ridingwaves

    depends on earnings….earnings season accounting for 90% of market rise over last 4 years

  • ridingwaves

    haven’t you had enough of those 3X ETN’s? the bio sector has plenty of room to run….you can find a volume surge in a cheap beaten up symbol and tight stop will produce similar like results…

  • kudra

    a little gun shy with biotechs after getting burned on GENE and ACUR. thankfully I got out of both before they sunk below $1. held those two stinkers for 2 years. bah. I dug your AVEO call, but didn’t participate.

  • ridingwaves

    I’ll post a couple more, just throw tight stops and if it hits the stop, c’est la vie and move on…also remember that in bio land they love long empty upper shadows on candles to trap retail….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nearing time for some volatility crush so exited small stocks short for time being,

  • ridingwaves

    healthcare-bio and oil sectors making up for XLF weakness…..this thing is on cruise control…..about to stop out on SPY short also…

  • Mary

    TSLA just closed 1 of 2 gaps.

  • OJuice

    Sold /ES @ 2423.00. Stop at 2425.5.

  • Julie

    A quick note before work. In a previous post I have a probe short BAC (from Friday) Will add with a bearish close below it’s daily 5 ema approx. 24.73. A stock that I have done very well with CALA is on the move. I reentered approx a month ago off the pullback and bounce off it’s daily 55 ema. I use exp fib moving averages per a previous post. CALA is worth watching.. I like CDE here but needs a bullish close above it’s daily 5 ema. I have a tight stop BAC If wrong not wrong long

    The grizzly bear population in MT is growing ….. Everyone Have A Great Day !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    My setups for reentering short are still good, mostly dependant on actual volatility behavior.

  • ridingwaves

    vix futures roll over next week, if there is anytime for it to push north, it’s this week…

  • Mary

    VIX futures roll over weekly, don’t they?

  • ridingwaves

    Grizzly bears are not something I would want to see hiking…

    CALA has treated me very well, PNF target is 38, low float makes it jumpy…

  • kudra

    wow. reversals in GDX (bouncin) and QQQ (sinkin)

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Great post, Mole. Congrats to those who took a little short out yesterday afternoon. I saw the same opportunity, and indeed I’ve been banking some decent coin on short term chances like this since I started up again in May, but I passed on this for reasons Mole mentioned today. But I’m still participating via a short lotto ticket I picked up on the bounce last week.

    I wrote the above paragraph shortly after the open … then my internet went down! Came back up just as we started to get some acceleration.

  • ridingwaves

    Mole’s USD/JPY cross took a dump there
    the 240’s SPY buyer stepped in again….

  • Julie

    I am glad that you have seen CALA too ! I want to learn PNF charts.

    The grizzlies in MT are starting to growl …. GRRRR !
    Thank You riding waves
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Doesn’t seem like a bad place to add shorts here; has a extremely tight stop potential b4 then appearing as a good volatility crush launch point.

  • kudra

    short-lived. grabbed a little DUST on the GDX spurt.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Let’s see if support becomes resistance, etcetera and so forth.

  • ridingwaves

    using oil as proxy to move up avg’s by the look of it with XLF still bleeding…
    also a nice bid coming in on the widow maker….hmmmm
    any weakness and I’m in on CL….
    long legged doji from yesterday on $wtic might have been a good sign for bulls…

  • Julie

    Hi Ozark NDX a bounce off the lower bol band at support. Now up into it.s declining 21 ema and perhaps stalling …. We will know end of day …. May short at close (Q’s) NDX trapped between 21 and 55 ema’s …. A break one way or the other is imminent
    JULIE

  • OJuice

    If this little dip is fully recovered by the EOD, dip buyers gonna achieve immortality.

  • Yoda

    Attracted to the largest volume profile below the tape seems to be. Either that or slim down some dude’s fingers need to.

  • ridingwaves

    2400-2410 volume hole is so far acting like a fortress…

  • OJuice

    No kidding. The little selling spurt almost snuck through. Instead it hit the wall of the fortress and went splat,

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…anything valid will continue to press its pressure against it, even if it ends up being a overnight event. I can’t a imagine a better setup to suck in and retain/trap the BTFD’s who by now I think are pretty well loaded up.

  • Julie

    2410 not only support but also the 55 ema … A bust down thru with increased selling volume …. MT grizzlies will be roaring. Again Thanks for the PNF target CALA. Break over now must get back to work
    JULIE

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Wouldn’t be surprised to see this stay between 2405ish – 2425ish, or even narrower, for another day or two. That would serve to keep sucking in as much capital as possible. But I’m willing to move as soon as I see something that gives me a little more confidence in the next direction.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Failure at VWAP today – signal negative. Let’s keep an eye on this:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f97fb75410a06d9c9c3603d802411e0269fdac2d623d6e4d37d7f3f142be0c6f.png

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Watching that 2020ish level.

  • Julie

    Doing great SPX Today’s bounce confluence (1) lower bol band (2) daily 55 ema (3) upper boundary of my daily ichimoku cloud
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Facinating. There are times I wonder how things could evolve with technology’s very small exit door. Somehow, so I imagine, the stunning into denial/ immobility will need to be quite effective. Years now of rewarding BTFD enough?

  • OJuice

    Stopped out B/E at 2423.

  • ridingwaves

    $ breakdown is not helping shorts get any traction…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…it it helps set the hook really good-and-deep, that’s cool w me :)

  • ridingwaves

    only problem is the hook could take 2 months to set as Dollar down is going to push equities up…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Feel free to post charts Julie. I use Jing to quickly take screenshots.

  • Acquired Assets

    I think Yellen might help with that tomorrow

  • Julie

    UUP Down to approx 24.70 support will also be a bollinger band positive divergence. Previous pos divergences have foreshadowed a bounce. Just saying
    JULIE

  • Acquired Assets

    I’m going to go out on a limb and make a mini-crash call for tomorrow. I’ve been working under the assumption that Yellen doesn’t like Trump and is happy to let this deflate before she goes out the door. W/O getting too political, she bent over to be dovish until the election, and has been quite hawkish (especially for her) since. IMHO, she is going to make it very clear tomorrow that they are starting to unwind in Sep and 1, if not 2, interest hikes are on the table for this year. Then you have the charts – the NDX has built a H&S right shoulder into a much larger H&S. The last 3 days has come on non-existent volume to set that right shoulder. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a56c9ae7d1bddd6ac84a997a083ca8704e83d9b533984bba96cc45e8d369b608.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ccbfc9c046fa176820c49e23f132ca9b7762f67ecf2cd13ced0d70937b18e605.png

  • Julie

    IMO CAT is setting up for an intermediate term short. I would like to nail it.Quadruple RSI negative divergence since April daily chart. Currently testing June high on low volume … Possible double top. Today’s candle print was a hanging man. Weekly chart lower channel line drawn from May 2016 low price currently imo stalling mid channel with a weekly CCI (20) negative divergence developing. I am starting to drool ……. !
    JULIE

  • Acquired Assets

    A stronger dollar hurts CAT tremendously…if my scenario above plays out

  • Julie

    YUP !
    JULIE

  • Acquired Assets

    Full disclosure, this is not my chart, but it’s from a free site where people publish ideas. Interesting bat pattern if you are into harmonics https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/73b03e2a8a41cd863669eb3c0a5c3a031b631c5dc72bc38c456c546a5674abe8.png

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Of course this is a viable scenario but I see you here making a classic mistake.

    You have a pre-existing view, and you have scoured the charts, the fundamentals, the news and the internet for evidence that supports your view.

    You should NOT be saving charts off random dudes on the internet (Mole included) and using them for a basis for your trades. You should NOT be making “calls” as as soon as you do that you become emotionally invested in the outcome you want.

    When we do this stuff we see what we believe instead of believing what we see. You become a sports fan cheering on a football team instead of a trader.

    Win or lose on this particular trade, that kind of thinking will hurt you :-)

  • Julie

    Anyone follow platinum symbol $PLAT on stockcharts.com.? Weekly chart price down to a very strong support level approx 900. Also price mid channel line drawing a parallel channel from February 2016.

    Steelhead for dniner tonight caught from the Necanicum River in N.W. Oregon. For those of you who do not know what a steelhead is it is a rainbow trout that goes to the Pacific Ocean and returns to it’s native river. Very delicious … Great site here … posters are respectful and no abusive or vulgar language. Everyone have A Great Evening
    JULIE

  • Julie

    NGLOY is a platinum miner … It is OTC and does not trade very many shares i.e. today approx 66 K shares traded. NGLOY daily chart going up into it’s upper Bol Band and upper boundary of my ichimoku cloud . Overbought. A nice run. IMO a pullback to approx 6.47 would be an entry if anyone wants to dabble …. I trade this stock small shares for practice and make a little bit of coin. I use parameters 8,21,55 for my ichimoku cloud in lieu of the standard 9,26,52. 8,21,55 are fib numbers.It is my perception that the miners lead the metals. IMO Platinum is about to make a strong move per above post
    JULIE

  • Julie

    KO hanging around it’s daily 55 ema approx 44.28. I think it will go lower. I am watching a strong support at 43.82. This matches it’s 89 ema (fib number) approx 43.70 and upper boundary of my daily ichimoku cloud.
    JULIE

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    You should never trade illiquid shares and particularly OTC shares. These things aren’t traded on real exchanges because they are, almost without exception, crappy 2 bit companies with cowboy CEO’s and questionable accounting. If they ever make it to prime time they get listed on real exchanges.

    Charting on thin issues is FAR less reliable, because there are invariably games being played by the big holders.

  • Julie

    Hi Mole and everyone. I am still up as we are trying to trap some nusience racoons. DUST I am not a waver but do look for chart patterns. DUST a triangle developing on the daily chart since February and possibly working on E leg of the triangle. Interesting setup as today price closed below the daily 5 ema and my icimoku cloud conversion line. On Monday the print was a bearish engulfing candle at the upper trendline of the triangle. Mid line of the triangle approx 30.50 which matches the weekly conversion line at 30 .50.Friday’s (weekly) close below 30.50 would augment the bearish picture.Now the daily ichimoku cloud baseline approx 31.10 matches the upper cloud boundary with the daily 21 ema approx 31.49. There could be a bounce 31.10 — 31.49. If indeed a bounce does occur at this level perhaps to a lower high and then lower. Daily MACD 5,34,5 hovering and consolidating around it’s centerline lending proof to the developing triangle. DUST is something that I am watching

    Just going to trap the racoons and then move them …. Not going to harm them in any way…. We respect wild life and love to watch them …. We have two homes (1) Western Oregon (2) S.W. Montana near Bozeman. We have everything from moose to grizzly bears in our backyard in MT. In Oregon foxes ; deer ; etc…
    JULIE

  • Julie

    In a post below I gave the parameters for my ichimoku cloud
    JULIE

  • saltwaterdog

    I agree with you on the technical front for illiquid issues because technicals are a mechanism to codify the emotional construct of a given market. When there are few participants there is no such “mass psychology”. In the case of Julie’s stock it is an ADR traded in US for a $14bn company that primarily trades in London, so the 2-bit company part may not apply. In any case the analysis should be done there, just as work on DUST should be done on the underlying Gold Miners Index (GDM)

  • Acquired Assets

    I’ve been doing this successfully as a job for 15 years, so I think I’ll be ok. But I do agree with your statement generally. I was simply posting some interesting (to me) charts

  • kudra

    Man, your call was so wrong.

  • Grant

    Technical charts are hard to trade. There needs to be more info than a resistance level, breakout, blah blah. When to buy? when to sell? There is no crystal ball, only tried and tested patterns which can be observed over time… and even then the going is difficult because a great pattern may be a winner less than 40% of trades. One needs to know how to let a trade run and when to get out of a losing trade. This is not taught with technical trading.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey Julie – did you see my comment regarding jing? It would make things a bit easier if you posted charts as it saves us all a lot of reading. I myself am burning the candle on both ends. Charts are instant as they are visual :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Home in Montana – that sounds so awesome. Can I come visit? 😉

    I’m a huge fan of Longmire – I want exactly his log in the middle of nowhere.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Investors should bail out of KO; will be a tremendous institutional short, and great long term position for a guy like Tim Knight. That industry is under great pressure. It’s decline will cause a huge amount of pain for many long time holders, IMO. As for the immediate future, I’d wait a little longer.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Great part of the country.