If I would have to name one single quality in this game that separates the few winners from all the losers I’d point at persistence as what counts the most. There’s not one day that goes by when I don’t work my butt off to keep myself on the winning side of the tape. You’ve seen me post quite a bit of educational content as of late and it seems to have been well received as we got several likes by stocktwits and some renowned players. But at the end of the day knowledge and even skill means absolutely zilch if you don’t show up for work every single day and press that button when it’s time to take action.
You may have noticed the lack of setups in the past week or so and I can assure you that it’s not for a lack of trying. However at the current time good directional entries seem to be few and far between. Fortunately we are in the mid of earning season and that may open up some opportunities for some nifty neutral volatility plays. If I take any I’ll be sure to share them here of course. In the interim I prefer to bide my time and wait for better odds to present themselves.
The Dollar is really taking it on the chin this morning and this may be just the beginning as I see a good number of crosses push into possible short term trending action (bearish on USD base crosses, e.g. EUR/USD, and bullish on USD counter crosses, e.g. GBP/USD). Clearly the Fed is going to fight this, as a weaker Dollar is beneficial to appreciating equities.
Today I will introduce an aspect of volatility that you most likely have not seen being addressed anywhere else: realized volatility profiles. First up let’s make sure you all understand what realized volatility (RV) is and how it compares to implied volatility (IV). Simply RV measures the amount and amplitude of price change observed in a financial instrument over time. Big moves to the up side and down side will both produce spikes in RV. As such the volatility we measure or predict always produces an unsigned return – it does not care whether the market goes up or down.