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March 23, 2017

Live Tape Reading W1217

During my time away it didn’t escape my attention that you guys very much enjoyed Scott’s excerpts on tape reading. As you all know I am very much a systemic trader at this point but at the same time still enjoy following a variety of charts on a discretionary/analytical basis for three reasons: First I happen to be good at it as my thinking process follows a mixture between the analytical and the creative. Second it gives me opportunities for campaigns I would miss out on just focusing on my systems. Third reading the tape actually gives me ideas for building new automated systems. For all these reasons and more I decided to do one post exclusive to tape reading every [...]

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March 8, 2017

Learning to Read

Trying to predict what the stock market will do is for dumbasses. A proper analysis of the big name stock tippers and analysts shows that they are all significantly worse than random.

This is a spreadsheet built by Tim Knight tracking Gartman’s predictions, running at a 22% correct rate for the year. What Tim fails to mention is that his own predictions are every bit as bad.

Predicting markets sucks, and it induces a whole bunch of mental baggage where we make a prediction and all of a sudden want it to be true. We cheer it on like a horse at the track.

There is a bug in our mental wiring where we only remember the correct calls and cannot remember the [...]

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March 7, 2017

Tenerife Awaits

After an extremely profitable first quarter I think most of you would agree that I have more than earned myself a little vacation. And boy do I need one as I have been feeling myself running on depleting reserves over the past few weeks. Yes, even the Mole is only human (sort of). Also, beyond the polished facade and daily evil deeds there had been a lot happening behind the scenes, some of which I have no doubt Scott will be talking about as he’ll be filling in during my two week absence. And may I just say – are you in for a rare treat ladies and leeches!

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March 6, 2017

Second Helping

This may be strange coming from an expat living in Spain but you guys have no idea how much I miss going to a good ole’ fashioned American diner. No not one of those fake copies in L.A. they build on top of the original ones after tearing them down. Yes, I’m looking at you Mel’s – what the heck were you guys thinking? A solid American diner has an ambience unique to where it’s located, it must have a zany 1950s interior, there need to be impatient chain smoking career waitresses, and the food of course needs to be delicious with generous portions to boot. My favorite diner in the world is Carla’s Route 66 in Twentynine Palms – I think it used [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    I’ve been tangentially following the news at a safe distance over the past week and frankly felt tempted to pinch myself every once in a while, just … more
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