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December 2, 2016

Setup Bonanza

Friday is usually my least favorite day to take on new setups, for obvious reasons, but beggars can’t be choosers and I’m glad that things are finally starting to come into sync across the board. Plenty of juicy setups today and I’m confident even Hoss won’t go hungry tonight!

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November 30, 2016

The Dollar Is On Fire

A rising tide floats all boats, as long as you’re swimming in equities apparently. Currencies, futures, and bonds however have been selling off hard since the launch of the post election Dollar rally. How far it’ll manage to run remains anyone’s guess (although I have some ideas) but it seems that it may at least be taking a little breather – for now that is:

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November 21, 2016

Post Election Volatility Changes In Equities

If you have been visiting regularly then you probably recall some of my earlier posts on realized volatility [1][2]. For the rest of you here’s a quick recap as it’s important to understand what realized volatility (RV) is and how it compares to implied volatility (IV). Simply RV measures the amount and amplitude of price change observed in a financial instrument over time. Big moves to the up side and down side will both produce spikes in RV. As such the volatility we measure or predict always produces an unsigned return – it does not care whether the market goes up or down.

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November 15, 2016

Keep Calm

I have an early appointment today so please forgive the brevity of this post. In essence your mission for the day is to parse your charting universe and then meditate on the fact that nobody in their right mind (which doesn’t include us of course) would have predicted a stronger Dollar and raging equities after a Trump victory. Which once again comes as a stark reminder that any aspirations in regards to predicting the future are utterly foolish and should remain relegated to the mental purgatory of the hapless retail victim.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Sunk Cost EffectSunk Cost Effect
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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