The Eagle Has Landed

My apologies for the late post today – it took me a while to get set up this morning as the storage place with all my equipment is all the way out in Los Feliz. And half way there I realized that we idiots had forgotten the key for the padlock, which added another 30 minutes to the trip. But I’m all set up now with my gorgeous Apple Cinema display and a surprisingly fast Internet connection. As you recall I already shifted my circadian rhythm over the past week and in general it feels like I never left Los Angeles. It’s amazing how quickly the brain re-adjusts to a familiar environment. Before you know it you’re cruising all over L.A., cursing at slow drivers of a certain ethnic group, A/C and stereo cranked up, sending hapless pedestrians diving for the sidewalk. You know – Los Angelino style :-)

LA_March_sunset_1

Here’s a snapshot I took last night here in Hollywood on Beverly right at the tail end of a gorgeous sunset. Today’s going to be hot – somewhere around 89 and it’ll breach the 90 mark tomorrow. I love the dry heat here and couldn’t be happier.

2015-03-12_UVOL_DVOL

Alright, let’s talk markets. As Scott pointed out – accumulation was in the works yesterday as evidenced by the NYSE UVOL/DVOL ratio. Buying pressure was solid and constant all the way into the close.

2015-03-12_zero

The Zero painted a pretty pronounced divergence on the hourly panel yesterday. Today’s session however (and yesterday) was driven by minimal momentum/participation suggesting prop desks and bots were running this.

2015-03-12_SPX_VIX

On the SPX/VIX panel the ratio is leading pure price and I think this could easily squeeze higher.

2015-03-12_spoos_update

So let’s look at the daily E-Mini which bounced at the 100-day SMA and the lower 25-day BB. The latter was actually the one which has been observed in recent history and the two together offered a nice opportunity for the bulls. Had I posted yesterday I would (like Scott) suggested to lighten up your short exposure here.

2015-03-12_LT_spoos_update

Long term we also had the 25-week SMA and a NLSL at 2036.5 – both of which I pointed out on Tuesday.

2015-03-12_NQ_update

The NQ is lagging the spoos which is interesting as it’s been the more bullish index recently. As you can see the weekly NLBL at 4286.25 has held up nicely so far.

2015-03-12_silver_setup

Alright, let’s talk setups – we have beautiful ones on our roster today. Here’s silver which I love short here until 15.565 where I’ll be long 1/2R, adding another 1/2R above 15.66. Frankly I would be happy either way – short or long and I have no directional bias.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs – please step into my Californian holiday lair:


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That’s it – see you guys tomorrow. FYI – while I’m here on the West Coast for the coming three weeks I will most likely post only once a day. Unless I fall out of bed very early – meaning near 6:00am. And that frankly happens rarely ;-)

Cheers,

Lower Highs And Lower Lows

I’m going to have to be brief tonight as I’m running late and I have a mountain of chores stacked on my desk. So let’s dispense with the formalities and let me try to get you up to speed on what’s going on and where we may be heading. More weakness in equities and right now the hourly panels are our best guides:

2015-03-04_spoos_update

Forget about all the lines and indicators – that’s beside the point right now. What really matters here is PRICE and the spoos are painting lower highs and lower lows. As long as we don’t breach ES 2100 we are heading lower.

2015-03-04_UVOL_DVOL

Selling pressure is definitely for real – observe the rather interesting UVOL/DVOL ratio spikes mid session. There’s a bit of panic selling right there – or perhaps it’s more distribution. Someone thought they may have had more time?

2015-03-04_zero

The Zero signal is for real – compare the signal range today with what we had to put up with over the past week or two. And the big spikes are to the downside – definitely noted.

2015-03-04_NQ_update

As you know I prefer the context on the NQ right now – I think NQ 4452.5 is the first and 4458 is the second line of defense for the bears. Also note that we sliced through the daily NLSL at 4427 but thus far it’s holding. If we close below it today or tomorrow we are going to 4350ish.

2015-03-04_AUDCAD_update

AUD/CAD update – I got pretty lucky there as I was about to grab a long position on a drop to 0.89. Fortunately the tape started to run away from me and I pulled it just in time. Better to be lucky than good – at least every once in a while ;-)

I probably should have looked at the daily panel this morning – that’s a stack of NLBLs right there and the odds for a breach were perhaps a bit low.

2015-03-04_gold_update

Gold update – nice entry there this morning and I’ve moved my stop to the break-even point. I’m holding this as it may continue lower.

2015-03-04_NG_update

My favorite chart today – NG – I also snug in there and for once it actually behaved and didn’t throw me out of the saddle. So far so good. I love the daily and weekly context here – unfortunately I’m less enthused about all those daily NLBLs above but I’ll deal with that if/when we get there.

2015-03-04_crude_update

Crude - got stopped out and then managed to jump back in on the way up. Only caught 1/4R however but I’ll take it and will built my position if it decided to finally abandon this range.

That’s all I got for today – I hope you guys grabbed one or two of this morning’s entries. If nothing else I would enjoy a bit more participation in the comment section. Alright, dinner’s waiting and Mrs. Evil is getting impatient – I have been advised to hurry the heck up. See you guys tomorrow!

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Setups Deluxe

Not a very interesting day on the equities side unless you enjoy playing the swings, in which case the sideways range on the E-Mini for instance offered quite some opportunity for jumping in and out. It’s the sort of day when the Zero really shines and not surprisingly it painted a pretty juicy Mole reversal signal during the mid day stab lower – plus note a very distinct signal divergence during the highs:

2015-03-01_zero

However what really caught my attention is the repeating pattern that its presenting itself on the hourly Zero panel (the lower panel). It’s starting to look like a heart beat and since it represents participation to the up/down side my conclusion is that buy/sell programs are bouncing the ball back/forth here. I looked around for signs of distribution or divergences on the momo side but still see very little.

2015-03-02_UVOL_DVOL

My UVOL/DVOL panel seems to support that notion as both lines are almost in perfect sync and are steadily rising – easy as she goes. Again, great day for swing traders, everyone else be nimble and be long near today’s lows and short near the highs (unless we breach above ES 2015 – see charts below).

2015-03-02_spoos_volume_hole

The E-Mini volume profile shows us a pretty deep volume hole at 2010 which now has been touched 2 1/2 times (the first one missed it by a tick or two). So that should serve as an inflection point moving forward – on the upside we have a ceiling near 2015.

2015-03-02_spoos_update

Which also is represented by a NLBL at 2014.75 – a breach above that by a tick or two and we are probably off to the races for another stab higher.

2015-03-02_USDCAD_triangle_setup

But I promised setups and am happy to deliver as we’ve got a ton today, especially on the futures side. But first Forex – here’s the USD/CAD which is painting a descending triangle formation. Now the odds for a breach higher is pretty low – I think we are talking like 15% or so. Which affects your position sizing – your odds of success are low but accordingly your pay off is high as many traditional chartists will expect a break down lower here – perhaps after a fake out spike higher. Sure, may happen, but every once in a while it just keeps running higher and burns the shorts in the process. Therefore my plan is to add 1/4R on a breach of 125.5 and another 1/4R on a breach above 1.266 – give/take a few ticks. 1/2R total with a stop below the 25-day SMA.

2015-03-02_cocoa_setup

Cocoa – very nice formation here and I’ll be long above today’s hammer with a stop below the NLSL (you can also use today’s low as usual).

Quite a bit more below the fold – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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