I’m seeing nothing tangible across any of our verticals today. Time to listen to my own advice and let the runners run whilst waiting for new instructions. You can never force the tape – no matter what system you trade you will face periods hibernation followed by a flurry of activity. All markets follow an inherent rhythm, and while this is more apparent on some charts it is often obfuscated by sideways volatility. The spoos are a great example of this.
If you look at the daily panel on the right you will see that we are still in a volatile period and have been so for a good part of this year. Price hides this fact as your mind has a tendency to look for directional changes whilst categorizing sideways movement as inert. But if you look closer you realize that we have been running like a hare all year – it’s just that we were running in circles for a long time and then suddenly the floor gave way.
Right now we are shifting a little as volatility is starting to exhibit a more directional component. You are seeing three or more days in one direction, which is then reversed with two or more candles in the other. The psychological impact of the current market phase is that of frustration mixed with greed and fear. Each side clearly sees what it wants to see although there is no salient evidence pointing in a particular direction.
The modus operandi of selective entry near clear inflection points employed here in the past few weeks has been serving us very well. Our long position is far from being out of the woods but we are now able to move our trailing stop from 1880 to 1900. Anyone with an opinion has long been taken the woodshed and if you are still participating here today then pride yourself in the fact that you are part of a very small minority. Over the past few years successful retail traders have become an endangered species. Heck perhaps we should apply for federal subsidies 😉
May I add that our trusted Zero has been a real life saver in the past few weeks. Over the years the invaluable guidance it offers has kept us out of more traps than I can count. If you have any doubts about that then I encourage you to watch the videos and judge by yourself if you want to be trading with or against us. I for one am happy to welcome you on either side.
Soybean Oil is starting to look positive and our stop now moves to break even. A long term floor could be in place here which is why I am trailing conservatively. If we pop a little higher then this will be converted into a daily campaign with plenty of space to run.
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