The 100-day SMA Sprint

There seems to be a new Olympic discipline that’s quickly gaining popularity – the 100-day SMA sprint. As a matter of fact I’m seeing this one on several fronts right now as traders across the board are being exposed to be a bit of mid summer heat. I recommend you crack open a cold one, put on your game face, and keep things frosty.

Here’s coffee – all entangled in its own Maginot Line. We may need some wire cutters to get this one out. The tough part about being long here is that the 100-day SMA is slowly dropping. So if you’re using that as your line in the sand then you need to disciplined and stick with your original stop. Yes, it is possible that she drops some more and then takes off without you. This will happen many times in your trading career and it’s something you need to be Zen about. Don’t take it personal – get even by banking coin in another contract. If we get lucky she’ll either hold or we get another reason for entry (e.g. Net-Line or inside candle, RTV buy, etc.

However my gold metal contender for the 100-day SMA sprint I reserve for my intrepid subs:
[amprotect=nonmember] More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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And rather ironically I am talking about gold. The 100-hour SMA just got taken out but it seems the 100-day is still in play. If you are long here then you are probably looking at that upper diagonal for support and under normal circumstances I would agree. However there is a little problem…

And it’s the fact that we just got a short entry via yesterday’s inside day. And that’s an inverse entry and I will have to go with that one for now. The good news about this is that we have two competing setups. If gold continues lower and actually drops below the 100-day then that’s just fine with me. If it reverses and clears the 100-day SMA then we probably are in for a good ride as well. So let the better setup win!

Sugar was also testing the 100-day for a while and then finally took off. Just to return and it’s now testing the 25-day SMA after giving us a long entry yesterday. So yes – it’s acting up a little and we should probably put our stop below 22.41 and then let the dice fall where they may.

AUD/JPY is also doing its own 100-day SMA dance. And quite frankly it’s getting a bit old and it’s time that it clears it once and for all. Right now we have that and a NLBL below – the latter of which is good for another day. We do nothing until either our stop is hit or we finally take off.

Ole bucky – I take it you remember the ID + NR7 setup yesterday. Today’s breach has me short but it could be a fake out. So if it pops back above then I’ll head back into cash and wait for new instructions.

On the equities front I have no new opinions except that our P&F target has been touched – period. Either we reverse here or the tape gives us a good reason to add new/more longs. I hoped for an inside day but that apparently was not in the cards today. Until something interesting happens I recommend you stay away. There are better/easier trades out there – and it’s okay to realx and wait for better weather.

Cheers,