Drip Drip Drop

Human psychology has always fascinated me and if you are  interested in herd behavior then what’s been happening in the crypto space over the past few years surely offers an abundance of research data. Of course to us older steel rats none of this new as we’ve seen it all before in 2008, or some of you dinosaurs even further back in 2000. HODL tweets have now become an omni-present battlecry on my twitter feed, all intellectually justified and emotionally rationalized for ‘philosophical reasons’. As if losing your ass whilst holding a currency somehow advances the human condition or in some way engenders social justice. Oh paaleeze – get over yourself people!

Now look here cryptobugs – what we’ve got right now is a pretty solid sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Buying here isn’t a bad spot obviously, much better than at 14k obviously. But the crypto bulls have effectively been put on notice and until $13 is confidently reconquered we may at minimum see a bit more whipsaw. BTW, a push < 9230 could trigger all kinds of fun, meaning a massive sell off that sends a wave of panic selling through the entire crypto space.

We are used to this kind of stuff, sort of I guess as we probably have been conditioned to the upside over the past few years. But at least we’ve seen blood flowing in the streets and that’s not an experience you are soon to forget. Most of those crypto kiddies however only read about market crashes in some old dusty books, if they could find any. 2008? Boy, that’s like – ancient history, right?

Anyway, if you want to be long here have a stop in place slightly < 9230. Don’t be stupid and HODL just because everyone else is – you’ll thank me later.

The E-Mini looks very very juicy here and I had to muster up a bit of self discipline to not grab a long position. Why? Just yesterday I was talking about the VIX/VXV ratio (to the subs) and how I wasn’t prepared to go short this market. Well, I am also not prepared to grab long positions after the monthly candle we are most likely in the process of finalizing today. Don’t get me wrong – I have nothing against hopping on a trend, but this is a bit more than I feel comfortable with. As the saying goes about bold and old traders – I happen to be one of the latter.

Dumbing it all down: I have no problems participating in a market that I hate, but I can and will not participate in a market that I do not understand. And equities right now make little sense to me. They may again after a little healthy shake out.

The Dollar continues to piss me off and although my campaign is still in play its odds are now sinking faster than a rubber dinky near the coast of North Korea.

That reversal I had in mind should have taken off by now but after two lackluster sessions I’d give it only a 33% chance at the point. 50% odds are pointing toward a visit of 87.5 and there is even a lesser chance that we drop all the way to 85. At which point I’ll probably have to reconsider the wisdom of over regulated child labor laws again. Unfortunately I have no kids so I was wondering if any of yours would be interested in a fun summer camp I plan to set up right here in Spain.

I’m glad that I didn’t jump the gun and advanced my stop to break/even yesterday as it’s finally taking off after a bit more whipsaw. So our stop now goes to b/e and hopefully it’ll rocket higher for the remainder of the week.

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