Currency Dissonance

Not only are most of the symbols on my watch list running in circles, even forex is starting to act in atypical patterns. Which reminds me of some proverb I once heard: If the weather is really awful cheer up because tomorrow it’ll be even worse. I can’t remember where it comes from but it sounds like something someone living in Iceland or some other place near the arctic circle would say 😉

So what am I on about? Look at the EUR/USD, which looks like it’s about to break out and burn any remaining shorts. A push > 1.175 probably gets us back to 1.20. I better pick up more €s today…

Meanwhile the Ozzie dollar doesn’t know what to do with itself – looking weak although a push > 0.759 puts it on track toward 0.775.

The Yen however continues to head lower, resulting in a break out pattern higher on the USD/JPY. I’m long this thing as you recall from yesterday’s post.

Very confusing times. Which is why I also took out a long position in gold (which runs in rough correlation with the Yen). It’s a bit down since my entry but I wouldn’t declare it a dud just yet.

Wheat is in a similar configuration right now although a failure of such a break out pattern usually has high odds of resolving lower. If stopped out I’ll try again near the big 500 mark. Otherwise there isn’t much there in terms of technical context.

Topsy Turvy Tape, Politics, And Climate

It’s been a short and only mildly entertaining week. Unfortunately with all the political upheaval over here in Europe we may be in for a frosty summer across the financial markets. Speaking of the weather, it’s been an uncharacteristically cold spring here in Spain but with record high temperatures up in the North, e.g. France, Germany, Poland, etc. See, even the climate is all over the place this year.