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Break Through Monday
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Break Through Monday

by The MoleJune 4, 2018

Despite a strong U.S. jobs report the never ending drama in Europe and especially worries over a major political shift in Italy seem to be the primary concern among investors right now. As always hope springs eternal and after painting a 10-month low of 1.1510 early last week the Euro has managed to extend some late week gains versus the Dollar since the Sunday open.

I definitely don’t want to come across as too cynical or self serving, given the fact that I currently live in Europe but earn in Dollars. And yes, a weaker Euro does benefit my lavish lifestyle as it affords me increased buying power. I shouldn’t complain too much as living cost over here in Spain are considerably lower than back in the States, and don’t even get me started on real estate or health care.

That said it never made sense to me that the Euro was trading at a premium against the Dollar as the entire continent has effectively turned itself into one big smoking political powder keg over the past few years. I can barely glance at the news here in Europe without shaking my head in utter disbelief.

So I just don’t see how the European Union and by extension the Euro currency, as it is managed today, will be able to survive the coming decade. But I’m pretty damn sure the ole’ greenback will still be there, irrespective of the perma-bearish smut you may be secrectly reading over on ZeroEdge (yes, you know who you are).

Okay back in the here and now – we have a picture perfect inverse H&S pattern on the EUR/USD including a complementary fake out dip below the 100-hour SMA. The spike low it produced would have been a nice entry earlier today but like most of you I require sleep.

So I’ll be looking for a possible retest which unfortunately is looking less and less probable. The highest odds at this point support a little short squeeze higher until investors find another reason to be worried about Italy.

Interestingly the USD/JPY is not showing any weakness and has advanced to about the 0.5R mark in my long campaign. Too early to advance my stop to break/even and thus far it remains < 108.113.

Despite momentary Dollar weakness a falling Yen of course has imposed drag on precious metals, and in particular gold. As you recall I’m positioned long here as I decided to pit gold versus the Yen last week. So effectively I’m net neutral between those two and am waiting for a decisive break out on either side.

The E-Mini is finally advancing > overhead resistance and if it can hold the line we ought to be positioned for continuation higher. Yes, there may be another retest of the 100-day SMA, which would be a great long entry opportunity, and that’s probably why we won’t get it 😉

Bonds have pulled back quite a bit and after rolling into the September contract I’m now waiting for a more pronounced floor pattern on the hourly panel. The daily panel is coming into focus now as the 100-day SMA is about to flatten out while the 100-day Bollinger is starting to compress. This should get really interesting come early summer.

What Happened To Spring?

Speaking of which, the weather has been miserable most of last weekend and with summer and with the summer vacation season starting this month I am beginning to wonder what the heck happened to spring. We didn’t really have one this year and from what I’ve seen online the weather has been equally disappointing in the United States. Crappy tape mixed with crappy weather. I hope the second half of the year will be a bit more fun.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • daverg

    barney and todd messed up the real estate market when they failed to act when they

    were head of their respective committees,

    and obama completely messed up healthcare>>>”don’t even get me started on real estate or health care.”

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s been one short sighted decision after the other over the past 20 years. Which is why there is a political shift happening all across the West right now.

  • BobbyLow

    “. . .irrespective of the perma-bearish smut you may be secrectly reading over on ZeroEdge (yes, you know who you are). . .

    Reminds me of my “perma bear” days when I was mainlining every piece of bearish news that I could find. All that did was nearly make me broke.

    Quiet Monday in here this AM. I took most of Friday off because my back is acting up again. Went to physical therapy for awhile and have been doing my stretching excersises every day and even bought a recumbent bike. But my back is “back” to where it was before therapy. I’m going to get a shot tomorrow afternoon and I hope this helps.

    In the meantime, I’ve only had one position to manage and that’s Short Wheat. I’ve got to thank RW again for getting me hooked on “Wheaties”. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Wheat is fun – assuming you can get a decent fill.

  • ridingwaves

    jumped in AVXL at 3.40, stop at 3.15, picked up IDRA at 1.80…..

  • ridingwaves

    I had some wheaties this morning, very filling……:)

  • ridingwaves

    at very Interesting place right now, sitting on long term cycle line but 100 and 50 are still below it….

  • daverg

    yes, but some nations are going more to left , others to right. Just like that song. Stuck in the middle again. Clowns to left of me, jokers to the right. Stuck in the middle again.

  • BobbyLow

    Don’t want to get into a political discussion here but IMO the middle is a place where reasonable solutions can be found. Otherwise it’s nothing but Horse Shit that comes from “My Way or the Highway” type Legislation whether it’s from the Looney Far Left OR the Nutty Far Right.

  • ridingwaves

    Interesting note, Gerry Rafferty was in this band…never even heard of this band…and I’m old..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DohRa9lsx0Q

  • HD

    2742 was the .618, break out indeed, back test in progress. larger S at 2731. SPX is highest level in 3 months

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD hanging in there BYD dropping INTC up slightly
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I must clarify an item. I receive notifications from B of A and GS From GS I receive info on the hedgies most shorted stocks and B of A bull – bear index and indicators. What I posted was printed by Zerohedge . I do not read Zerohedge . In fact I have never read Zerohedge. I also get CNN Fear and Greed Index. I never watch CNN I never watch Cramer. I never watch any of the financial crap on tv. featuring the talking heads and gurus. I do peruse Yahoo Financial and am able to ascertain pulse on sentiment
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Bought some NCP this a.m per chart posted on previous thread. Up 8% so far today Yes it is a penny stock A play on Platinum which IMO is bottoming SBGL is another platinum play https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/82b62c8766de1d8b2c5a1cabd1e587fa7579e87bbeddd263c363d658aa342045.png JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Short BYD (small position) per chart and comments previous thread BYD following plan posted https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/da2c43f4a3a6cd2cc570c067e111418cda02ec19ab7e5b09a56fcbd51391aee2.png JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    INTC A bearish close below the upper trend line I will add a little to very small short probe JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/717d417cc1f91f341ba55645702843d9f975fe517884e24ca71c123d14e5425f.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys I follow GVIP as a leading indicator SPX It gives great signals and is a heads up. GVIP is not buying or agreeing with the move. The big boys are selling into the gap up SPX today Beware https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b0431da3a05cd4b192b498e035ddeb63b38f032d95ca9e117ffce347812c3c2f.png JULIE

  • HD

    Nice little 5 handle bounce off the .618. VIX 13- don’t expect 20 handle moves.

  • HD

    Day 96 in AZ without any rain. Record drought. 107* on deck

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD you and GG Be careful ! Yipes !
    JULIE

  • HD

    All the years of “chem trails” really did a number on us….

  • ridingwaves

    WTIC near the 64.50 area I was wishing for… have bid at 64.55 1/3R L

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW I had approx 13 USO posted as a target
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no problemo, here’s a selfie of me after sunset.
    😉

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/dd/99/8f/dd998ff4895488c427d92509672c901b.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ugh – paradise. Frankly after six years in Spain I’m sick of the rain. Winters are pretty long here and between November and April it rains quite a bit.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You believe in that stuff? My wife is a convert and I’m on the fence.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We all know you are guilty Julie – no sense denying it!! LOL :-))

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Natural reaction. Here in Europe the push to the right has mainly been caused by relentless illegal immigration which has completely transformed urban zones in the past five years. Violent crime and has exploded, especially up in Northern Europe. People can only take so much change and the EU is now starting to pay the piper for their endless demographic engineering.

  • HD

    No. Just Monday humor. Actually AZ has had 7 months of perfect weather. June is always terribly hot.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The problem is that the middle has almost completely disappeared as people have been forced toward the extremes. Of course you know what usually follows next.

  • ridingwaves
  • HD

    Ha! I’m stealing that!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I remember. When I was a young buck I was dating this gorgeous blond living in Scottsdale. She picked me up from the airport and when we stepped outside the gates I almost had a panic attack as I had never experienced 95 F – close to midnight!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL :-))

  • HD

    I can’t handle PHX on multiple levels. It’s a 120* version of LA

  • BKXtoZERO

    I slept in…. VIX crushing w/out me LOL. Feels nice not to be in. Rest…… is good.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    now *that* was a HOT date.
    😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    To be more serious about this. There is strange shit going on in our skies and I can’t completely rule it out that they would be spraying shit to control the weather.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It was – in every aspect of the definition. But it was a quarter century ago so it’s ancient history now.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Real estate is cheap though. But yes, you probably want to be gone during the summer. Why not spend June through August somewhere else?

  • ridingwaves

    I would be more worried about the ocean as it spawned life, where it began and where it will end…Volcanoes are telling us earth has had enough of humans

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    BINGO.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Good one yesterday. I went to the post office to mail a letter. In one hand the letter the other hand my keys. Well ….. Guess which one I put in the letter box ! ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    You had your mind on Platinum stocks!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Our post office has a very small slot, to prevent such things.

    Don’t worry, you are not alone.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrpeMBTX2-0

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Anyone still long $Gold ?. I have retained a 1/3 long position. The weekly chart is bullish. Shown daily chart GLD A bullish falling wedge pattern JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e4da0fa80a65122dc360d8ec5c30b9d77ebba1a6135aa97956d1c2046ccb74da.png

  • BobbyLow

    I really got thrown off my game with crude. When my short signal appeared on Crude, I had the brainy idea of shorting Oil Companies instead of Crude. Even though that was a very profitable trade, I went to neutral just prior to the holiday weekend and never got back into a short crude trade which is where I should have been in the first place.

    I don’t know how many times that I need to be reminded that Oil Companies get sucked up or down with Index ETF’s, and the correlation between crude and oil companies can get a little fuzzy from time to time.

    Anyhow, the “Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda here is that I should have been short Crude from $70.82 and be still be short right now. This one was tricky (ain’t they all) because of the long weekend and a one day bull shit short covering rally but it is what it is. . .

  • BobbyLow

    Gold and I have had a mutual separation and are dating other people for now. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ll fan the flames. I’m neutral on the subject.
    A major challenge seems to be credible sources.

    WTH are the planes *doing*?

    http://www.collective-evolution.com/2016/06/27/why-you-shouldnt-be-sharing-these-fake-chemtrial-photos-online/

  • BKXtoZERO

    I just went long NUGT (again) at 24.99. flatted the last one.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    she did bad things behind your back BL, she was no good for you.
    😉
    I hear she’s trolling for guys at a club called ‘121’.

    [GLD]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p50000695748

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    INTC Yes Confident it will go my way Patience https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9a7aa6d38d28129fb35ed4cd460b95306e5a2fe85eb6f1539bc695f7fb059e3d.png EOD will probably add some to very small short probe JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. Just when things begin to go well she’ll break my heart and start dating the other side. Or sometimes she’ll just lie comatose for a few days and then decide to go wild. 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    thats 3 years old…ask these folks
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-44350974

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    this too, shall pass.

  • BobbyLow

    I loves my Wheaties. 🙂

    Took 1/2 off at +20 Points. Letting rest ride.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Julie not trusting this little pop up SPX Very weak Spy volume and the hedgies are selling onto it. Tomorrow could be very interesting. GG shows a chart below SPX crucial resistance. Also refer to GVIP chart shown below Just Saying JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    off to lunch!..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    didn’t I say tomorrow?
    dam it, no one’s listening to me. I’m turning into MOle!
    😉

  • BobbyLow

    Better call “Our Man Flint”. He’s the best one to fight “Galaxy”s attempt to control the weather. 🙂

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaJu23YZBpw

  • BKXtoZERO

    Trying 1R TVIX 4.78, kick the tires….

  • HD

    What are we basing “tomorrow”on?

  • ridingwaves

    buyers dipping in down here, overnight will be the tell if were at bottom or not..

  • ridingwaves

    that thing moves so slow….

  • ridingwaves

    i have a L buy order in for weaties at 6.57 and one a bit lower…help me ok…

  • ridingwaves

    I just looked at my old pal GORO and that turned into a gold miner winner…whocoodanode…

  • BobbyLow

    Could be and if I were to be a buyer, I’d need some steady closes at 66 or above. There will probably be enough BS going on to make that happen soon enough. If not, I’ll really be kicking myself for not shorting it way back when.

  • BobbyLow

    Aint that the truth. You also need to tie up a lot of capital to make any money on it. I think Julie would be better off with UCO but we’ve already had that conversation.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BYD Targets 13 ema matching a support ; 21 ema ; 34 ema matching a support JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ce33a79923a35b827335e81acfb435d94fe76e472eb25dce5859d59555c32a89.png

  • ridingwaves

    and I’m a turtle with trades sometimes…

  • BobbyLow

    Deal! 🙂

    That would be the equivalent of aproximitely 20 more points to the downside on Wheat Futures . I really have no idea how much further this thing will go down but a retest of the May 15th Low of 488 might be a possibility. OTOH, it could stop bleeding tomorrow.

    At some point, I’ll be long again right along with you. And when this happens, I’ll be long both Futures and Shares of WEAT.

  • ridingwaves

    this could be juicy for AVXL….
    right to try act might play out well for a alzheimers play

  • ridingwaves

    go little bio, go….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Getting ready to short this “Big Ass Bird” on this phony breakout above 2743 Perhaps tomorrow JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b6669b9388d7addd315d5724b49be437bb72a96228e5858d52fcdde25afa6c2e.png

  • BobbyLow

    I never really studied the Turtle Method but I think my style could be “Turtle” related. I am a Trend Trader but on a relatively short term swing basis.

    Some of the Turtle Axioms are a good fit even though sometimes can be a challenge to follow them:

    “Do not let emotions fluctuate with the up and down of your capital.”
    “Be consistent and even-tempered.”
    “Judge yourself not by the outcome, but by your process.”
    “Know what you are going to do when the market does what it is going to do.”
    “Every now and then the impossible can and will happen.”
    “Know each day what your plan and your contingencies are for the next day.”
    “What can I win and what can I lose? What are probabilities of either happening?”

  • kim

    hope dies last, to me it looks like it’s going to retest ATH (at least).

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Adding a little to INTC short probe Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day !
    JULIE

  • HD

    Julie, dumped the triangle. No way to salvage imo. Zig zag off April low still alive. Symmetry just above.

  • BobbyLow

    You too Julie. 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    ridingwaves Gold_Gerb 14 days ago
    I’ve been thinking about this bull run as the last for a bit….might even take out the gaps at high….thus free to fall wherever the big boys want it too…

    ridingwaves Mark Shinnick 11 days ago
    2850 by July…..

  • BobbyLow

    As “King” and “Exalted Ruler”, I am above the Law. I am the Law.

    I’m going to go throw up now.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD A very very weak breakout above 2743 to draw in the retail. Hedgies sold into the action today.
    JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Agreed. Only one other blog that I pay for, and the weight of chart evidence I’m seeing there is also bullish.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG CSCO playing into our hands … The bounce off the 89 ema and lower cloud. 44.44 is out target for the lower high to short. SEDG same thing per previous chart and comment JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0cdba6fbc94de602da5e2ff9b2025553dcf49cbfd05aa67593a13dfbccb913bd.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What I miss?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s it folks – she’s a blond for sure.

  • ridingwaves

    Dang…I got caught up in something else….I’m paddling into waves very easy right now…

    ridingwaves Gold_Gerb 6 days ago
    long on 10 yr makes sense here, plenty of auctions the following 2 weeks…seems like a bid will show up if not already

    https://www.treasury.gov/re

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “this too shall pass”

    EDIT: TBX median
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TBX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p81657708840
    I should sell this chart for magic beans, it does Magic bottom picking.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    from what I learned about ItchyClouds over the weekend, price is in the cloud.
    very dangerous, very teacherous.

  • ridingwaves

    could have bought in at 2.76 today 2.94

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Washington POST stirring up trouble?
    I’d post the link, but it’s political, and *I* don’t want to go there.

  • BobbyLow

    Some might not find this as offensive as I do but here are Trump’s exact unfiltered words. “I have the absolute right to pardon myself”.

    I read this as Trump believes he is above the law. There is no need for any checks and balances between our 3 Branches of Government. The Justice Department should be is very own KGB and the Executive Branch is all that is necessary.

    This is not an affront to Liberals or Conservatives. It is an affront to our Democracy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I forgot all about that. except I posted a gold Toro lawn mower way back.
    6.11, sound pricey.

  • BobbyLow

    So WAPO is not supposed to report on what the President and his lawyers said?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Price in the cloud is neutral …. In the cloud and conversion line below baseline bearish neutral… In the cloud and conversion line above the baseline bullish neutral. Bullish price above the cloud…. bearish price below the cloud. Cloud boundaries act as magnets. The cloud can be a forward indicator . Also the thickness of the cloud is resistance i.e. price going into a thin cloud is less resistance.Price breaking above the cloud is bullish and breaking below the cloud is bearish. Always work the various time frames together i.e daily with weekly– weekly with monthly — 60 min with daily etc…
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    “This is not an affront to Liberals or Conservatives. It is an affront to our Democracy.”

    Well said, kind sir.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    How are guy guys making money on a 1.1% move? 34 cents on a 29$ symbol…. are you playing options? or are you trading a buku sized position? Futures would do it I guess.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Don’t know if it matters, but Apple’s World Wide Developer’s Conference started yesterday. Price typically falls when the keynote happens, due to the MSM hype not being met. This year, price went up. Maybe a whale trying to trade it?

  • randomuser6789

    BL, you and I come down in different places on the liberal/conservative spectrum, but you could not be more right about what you have said above.
    Heaven help us!