A Cunning Plan

Equities are not looking so hot right now. Especially the hourly panel looks like a veritable war zones, with spikes, trenches, and traps resembling the Western front during WW1. So even thinking about a long position here most likely sounds just as appealing as any of Baldrick’s ‘cunning plans’ featured in the series Black Adder. As a personal side note – if you have been tragically born without a sense of humor then there may be hope for you. Just treat yourself to a season or two of Black Adder and I promise you’ll be the life of the party next time around. Either that or they’ll have you committed.

Anyway, taking out a long position here has a pretty low probability of success, but on the upside (pun intended) it has a pretty good risk/benefit ratio. In other words – it’s a last chance Hail Mary pass for the bulls. For if we slide much lower then I think gravity will once more draw us toward 2050 and below.

Over the past week or so we’ve seen possible signs of distribution and although that in itself is not always a harbinger of instant downside the recent price pattern makes it a definite possibility. That said – the Zero signal yesterday was pretty supportive with signals touching 1.5, so quite a few people are going to find themselves stopped and reaching for extra caffeine out this morning. Which may just be good for a little bounce higher, so let’s see what happens.

More fun with futures – we’ve got sevearl juicy candidates today actually. Natgas is retracing some roll over freakiness and I’m waiting for a touch of the 100-day SMA which also puts us near the round 2.0 mark. Which means I’ll grab a long around 2.004 with a stop below 1.97.

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